This being Friday. it’s lawn and garden day around here, so we will be posting this morning’s report in pieces. By doing this, I can get my lawn mowed (and maybe edged) before breakfast and the market open. Or not…
Just out from the Labor Department:
“The unemployment rate remained at 3.6 percent in May, and the number of unemployed persons was little changed at 5.9 million. (See table A-1.) Among the major worker groups, the unemployment rates for adult men (3.3 percent), adult women (3.2 percent), teenagers (12.7 percent), Whites (3.3 percent), Blacks (6.2 percent), Asians (2.5 percent), and Hispanics (4.2 percent) showed little or no change in May.
In May, the number of persons unemployed less than 5 weeks increased by 243,000 to 2.1 million, following a decline in April. The number of long-term unemployed (those jobless for 27 weeks or more), at 1.3 million, changed little over the month and accounted for 22.4 percent of the unemployed. (See table A-12.) Both the labor force participation rate, at 62.8 percent, and the employment-population ratio, at 60.6 percent, were unchanged in May.
So, is it a great report?
- For one, the civilian non-institutional population grew by a reported 168,000. But we had more than that arrive / sneak in from Mexico.
- The total number of people working was up 113-thousand.
- The number of unemployed was up 64,000.
- Non-farm was up 75,000 but goods producing (real jobs, not gigs and retail) were up only 8,000.
- Hourly wages? Up 3% year-on-year – which is just inflation in the real world..
So we flip over to the C ES Birth-Death Model, which is the ‘fess-up’ for the number of jobs estimated into existence:
In fact, if you look over here, of that gain of 113-thousand more working, the CES model contributed 204,000. Yeah – without the CES adjustments, the report would have been negative.something like 91-thousand. How far off is the CES model? Oh, last year it was off (on the high side) by 2.9-million (which shows up as the January adjustment this year of -2.908 MILLION.
Don’t tell the democrats running for president this, but the Trump Economy is mostly a fiction. (See the Aggregate Stock index note later in the column) Not only were 3-million jobs incorrectly made up last year in the CES, but the year on year working people grew by a bit less than the immigration from Mexico. 1.219 more people working this year while (mostly illegal) immigration from Mexico was up over a million.
And that’s what we’ve been warning you of. We saw it coming in the ADP and Challenger numbers we told you about yesterday. It’s cleverly papered-over (make up an extra 90-thousand jobs for me, would you?) but that’s it and the number of unemployed is growing.
Rally on that, bulls.
In fact, the best thing I can say about today’s report is I got three-quarters of the lawn mowed while waiting for the report to come out.
Dow futures? Gone to flat…while we are on the lookout for rehab counselors, sobriety & drug testing among the bull touts…
Time to saddle up the Husqy and ride some more…
Rain Pain, Climate Gain
We have noticed a “hole in the flow” of news with the report from NOAA. Let’s me lay out part of their press release and see if you can figure out the “hole” for yourself:
“For May, the average contiguous U.S. temperature was 59.5°F, 0.7°F below the 20th century average and ranked in the bottom third of the 125-year record. Despite the cool May, meteorological spring (March–May) had near-average temperatures. The seasonally averaged temperature for the Lower 48 was 50.9°F, 0.1°F below average and ranked in the middle third of the record. The first five months of 2019 were marked by large regional variability in temperature, but when averaged, the contiguous U.S. temperature was 43.4°F, 0.1°F above the 20th century average and also ranked in the middle third of the January–May record.”
We’re here to offer a simple-minded (but scientifically proven) fact: Warm Air holds more water than Cold Air.
Sure, the “global warming crowd” isn’t talking about “warming” – because there is none. And all the rain?
From The Pacific Standard: “ ‘The Fields Are Washing Away:’ Midwest Flooding Is Wreaking Havoc on Farmers.”
Think about it: The atmosphere of Earth can hold so much water if hotter than normal and far less if colder than normal. The “far less” is called rain and precip.
To any right-thinking junior high science student, it’s pretty obvious: Total rainfall may be positively correlated to atmospheric temperatures globally. When it’s getting hotter? Drought may be in the wings. When it’s cooling? Floods.
Still, in order for this proxy to be workable, you need global precip data (unadjusted, long-term) and there are anomalies such as Moscow Sizzles in Record Temperatures.. Put that up against Rain delays start of Pakistan v Sri Lanka Cricket World Cup match… and conclude, if you will.
It ain’t that hard.
Being straight-shooting environmentalists that we are (grid-tied solar, owning a tree farm, and producing at least a bit of our own food plus driving less than 7000 miles a year), we have suffered through some of the effects of this global cooling as we are setting precip records around here, as well.
Unlike the government, and self-serving climate book writers who then become “experts,” our view is more ground-level. Warm air, however, holds more water than cold…and that’s what the data report from NOAA neglects to remind us.
It’s Part of Synthetic Growth
You need to understand that climate is an economic proxy for growth. We have told you before (and we’ll explain again) how SynGro (synthetic growth) works:
- More jobs in “government” means people doing tons of “studying” and positing “theories” and offering their “conclusions” but often these are demonstrably wrong. Ask a farmer.
- The biggest impact of climate change hype so far has been economic – putting people to work on…climate!
- That said, growth of government is one of the best industries to “invest” in. It does so many things that “regular” (off-shored to China) manufacturing jobs don’t do:
- It’s an excuse to raise taxes
- It gives government more control
- It reduces systemic freedoms once enjoyed
- It falsely creates “jobs” and that will lead to pandering tweets to the unaware
- It keeps people busy and maintains the dollarized economy rather than transitioning to a time minimized economy where we get more time off…
- Such growth also papers-over the huge dump of third worlders invading across the Mexico Border. Liberals won’t cop to this, but that’s just more SynGro.
- These people will require more “governmenting” – so it’s an excuse to raise taxes, hire govvies, and ESL teachers
- It’ll provide for a huge growth in a new kind of human exploitation which falls under the big label of “Economic Slavery.” No emancipation for the new underclass, comprende?
- The regular beatings come on pay day.
Not to be the “grouchy old man on the lawn tractor” today, but we (as a -once- Nation) are not being honest with ourselves.
We pretend that this is the Land of the Free. Which is patently untrue today as we’ve become the Land of the Indentured. We are being asset-stripped of our net worth and forced into the new (more “economically efficient”) Rent Your Life model.
To help things along, the Federal Reserve has been pursuing a variant of “Modern Monetary Theory” which is what drove Zimbabwe into hyperinflation. Write down where you heard it: Gold may be getting ready for a moonshot. We reckon $3,000 may not be unreasonable.
Did you see last night’s Fed Money Stocks report? It showed how the Fed has been standing on the brakes of money-creation for a couple of weeks now: (top line under M1)
Eventually, this “standing on the brakes” will result in a market correction – likely of consequential size. In the meantime, though, the early futures we up another 73 on the Dow.
Knowing all this, what is one to do?
Find a way to control your own destiny. What you don’t own outright (and have saved up taxes to keep owning) is not yours. It’s all part of Rent Your Life and that, dear reader, is not what America the Beautiful was founded on. I mean, can you picture Ben Franklin saying…
“A Penny Saved is a financial asset at rest that should be transacted into the larger economy in order to make the velocity of money grow…”
Ben would never say that. Those were the days of savings and net worth. Your Ass ets are being stripped in a desperate move to recirculate money and jack things up.
Remember how many times I have warned of Consumer Super-saturation? We are there.
For a while, we had hopes that Trump would actually solve some of the nation’s woes. But, the long-chain business molecules have corrupted everything. Even the slow recovery in the Velocity of Money at M2 now looks like it’s rolling over to the downside.
And if all of this isn’t sobering enough, here’s a terrible fact that no one in the mainstream media is talking about (it involves real work with lots of numbers):
As of Wednesday of this week, our Aggregate US reading stood at 23764.71. That compares with the first full week of June last year (June 8, 2018) which was 23726.84.
What have stock prices done in the past year?
As an Aggregate, up 0.16 percent.
If you’re wondering why you can’t live on your fabulous collection of stocks and bonds? Well, let’s see: Real 1-year gains are effectively zero and the cost of living keeps going up.
An interesting thought problem for you: If instead of piling your retirement into paper “assets” where would you be if you’d bought a little truck farm back when? Oops! Sorry – market garden is the “correct” term says Wikipedia:
“A market garden is the relatively small-scale production of fruits, vegetables and flowers as cash crops, frequently sold directly to consumers and restaurants. The diversity of crops grown on a small area of land, typically, from under one acre (0.4 ha) to a few acres, or sometimes in greenhouses distinguishes it from other types of farming. Such a farm on a larger scale is sometimes called a truck farm.”
Put some cyclone fence around it to keep the dogs and most critters out (for everything else there’s a .22, lol). Light up the weed-burner…
What would your payback have been on that? I mean, because fresh, local, delicious, not nutritionally-deficit 3,000 mile veggies, might be good for you…that’s not hard to figure.
Just musings to keep the brain fired-up while tractor-backin’ this morning.
To walk around with such a complicated “Reality Model” takes more headspace than most people are willing to devote. The payoff is that it’s much more relaxing to watch the news or pick up a paper. It’s almost like watching a “clockwork” making life semi-predictable, and therefore something we can hedge properly.
How to Hedge These Headlines?
Living in a “voice-controlled home” as we do, this was interesting: Making “smart home” features standard for renters.
Whose book is Bloomberg talking up? “U.S. mulls delaying threatened tariffs on Mexican products: Bloomberg.” Added 200- to the market, near as we could figure it. The bigger problems continue though as the NY Times reports Trade Wars Stoke Economic Fear as G-20 Finance Ministers Gather in Japan. Couple with Trump slams U.S. lawmakers resisting his “beautiful” Mexico tariffs, you can sense how we’d ask the “talking someone’s book” question…See also Trump to decide on $300 billion China tariffs after G20 meeting.
Attention Males: Fox offers ‘Underboob’ bikini craze back on Instagram. Elaine, meanwhile, runs around in a Hooter’s t-shirt cut down to similar dimensions…ahead of her time, as always.. Speaking of which, with Fox‘s “Sports Illustrated Swimsuit rookie Olivia Brower says she no longer feels pressure to be a certain size” we wonder if they’re vying to be the worlds first N/T&A network?
(Might want to channel block it in the Queen’s lands as STDs On The Rise In England…)
We’d suggest they buff up their Moscow bureau, too as ‘Kinky Party’ Is Starting a Russian Sexual Revolution. Gotta be some male demographics in that one…
Invader Driver: As the number of Venezuelan’s invading over the border increases, we see that Russia Will Send More Military Specialists to Venezuela If Needed – Reports. Putin wants his own oil cartel. Turkey is now drilling into the Leviathan, by the way and Cyprus is pissed.
OK, on the lawn… may be mostly mowed by the time the job numbers come out. Tomorrow on Peoplenomics, Chapter 5 of :The 100-year Toaster” Delocalizing Food. Here on Urban? Prepping Your 500-Hour Skill Sets…
Have a safe weekend and come back then and bring a few million of your closest friends… We may be doing some server tweaks Sunday…