Raise your hand, quick, if you know where the most famous statue of legendary wood-cutter Paul Bunyon and his Blue Ox Babe are located.
(Hmmm…no hands going up…)
Well, this is one of the reasons why Ham Radio is such a cool hobby during times when the End of the World (EotW) is in sight.
I learned, talking to a fellow ham up in Minnesota, of two other important facts not previously filed correctly by my onboard wet-ware memory:
First is that the movie Fargo is not all set in Fargo, ND so much as elsewhere (Brainerd, MN) (repeat after me: marketing, marketing, marketing) because no one would go to a movie with the name of an obscure name like Brainerd.
But, more importantly, a major snow storm is likely up there on Thursday…and that’s really the whole point. Not a big national news story yet (doesn’t fit the “climate change hysteria” and “gimme a grant” pattern) but if you happened to catch Minnesota Public Radio (rather than cruising the grown-up end of the 20-meter ham band), you’d have heard about the pending “April lion: Near-blizzard conditions likely Thursday.”
Much later than “normal” but we haven’t seen normal since the 8080 processor was invented by Intel back in April of “ought-seventy-four.”
(I’ve secretly got a new pet theory that the unchaining of Satan/Azazel was really Biblical metaphor for marketing of silicon brain replacing chips…but we’ll save that for another morning.)
The point (there is one around here somewhere…) is that, oh yes, the Sun is going out.
Not Big Time since we won’t blink out nova for between one and five billion years…
But in the shorter “waves” of actinic energy (see: actinism), no revision to the “quiet Sun” forecasts that extend the forecast duration of this solar minimum out past 2023. Here’s the latest Sunspot/Solar Cycle Progression chart from NOAA:
[Spreadsheet jock extra credit: Table of Predicted Values With Expected Ranges. Give me line and stacked bar graphs…)
All of which is pretty interesting because while “climate deniers” peddle false conclusions (based on “adjusted data”) we’re much more interested in how this will set up mass global starvation during what’s shaping up like a new Maunder Minimum: Which, if you Wiki it…turns up this:
“The Maunder Minimum, also known as the “prolonged sunspot minimum”, is the name used for the period around 1645 to 1715 during which sunspots became exceedingly rare, as was then noted by solar observers.
The Maunder Minimum roughly coincided with the middle part of the Little Ice Age, during which Europe and North America experienced colder than average temperatures. Whether there is a causal relationship, however, is still under evaluation. Research at the Technical University of Denmark and the Hebrew University of Jerusalem has linked large solar eruptions to changes in the Earth’s cloud cover and clouds are known to affect global temperatures. The current best hypothesis for the cause of the Little Ice Age is that it was the result of volcanic action.”
You tracking on this?
Now let’s get down to some really simple science. Everyone knows Einstein’s E=mc-squared equation: Energy equals mass times the constant speed of light squared. What most people don’t want to address head-on it that we also know how a Sun “grows planets” (under Ure’s Crackpot Theory #361):
The formula rearranges to what? E/c-squared equals mass. So? Not proven, but sitting there right in front of us in the idea that energy condenses to mass. And that’s probably why some planets are Big (old) and others are Small (young). But hey! This is nominally an economics class so back to point.
The association between long-term Sunspot tracks and human behavior is also in there, if you go looking for it. Other than Martin Armstrong and a few other clear-thinkers, however, no one seems to get it.
OK, there’s a ton in the literature, but most people won’t read a book like Watts Wacker’s classic “The 500-Year Delta: What Happens After What Comes Next” and connect any dots.
But let me help: The 500-year cycles are “soft” – in lay terms, it’s like a widely-dispersed Gaussian distribution. Or, in ham radio terms, it’s like an IF passband with one megahertz between 6-db points.
The idea is that if we take 1645 *(and maybe earlier, because people had little interest in counting sunspots accurately then – back in the time before climate study grants) and add 400-years then we get “due to pull into the station shortly.”
And that’s why when we toss in the secular news flow, we get very worried about what could be ahead. Although my wild-man son (George II) who likes to solo snow-camp in the high Cascades, may be ahead of us all on survival skills acquisition.
For Everyone Else? Indo-Pak NukeWar
Yeah, When stories like “India and Pakistan Trade Barbs; Violence Escalates in Libya“” run up on Foreign Policy’s website, we pay attention. Ditto with demands like India demanding to know if U.S. teams were at Pakistan military bases during the recent aerial dog-fighting. Looks like we have already gotten sucked into things, after all.
Fortunately, our favorite war-gamer (from the AF2025 period) (“warhammer“) keeps us on the intellectual straight and narrow:
An Indo-Pak has been on the war gaming-table for almost 30 years. Back in 1990, the Naval War College’s Global War games examined the regional and global ramifications of a sizeable exchange between the two ideologically and theologically opposed nations. Grim is a mild word for nuke war after effects, even with a ‘limited’ one between India and Pakistan.
More recently, Scientific American put out a report (2009) postulating that any Indo-Pak war would not necessarily be a short one. Hostilities would continue for months or even years. Once nukes were let loose, up to 2 million souls could be lost due to the lingering radioactive after effects, let alone being vaporized in the initial attack. Competition for fresh water in the war zone and fallout areas could precipitate additional armed conflicts.
Communications of all types would suffer due to the EMP with dust and radioactivity in the atmosphere impairing radio signals. Next, smoke from the ensuing infernos would dim the sun globally for somewhere around 10 years, resulting in widespread crop shortages, hunger and starvation. Regionally, radioactive clouds swirling around the Himalayas. Depending upon the time of year, some would push west toward Africa and S. Europe, or some would blow into S. Russia and sizeable amounts could end up hitting the jet stream over the Pacific, eventually manifesting global effects and jeopardizing N. America and the Caribbean. Killer frosts in the summer, a global cooling average of 2.3F, a 10% reduction in participation worldwide with up to 40% reductions in the monsoon regions. Then there’s health issues due to radioactive fallout, which will ramp up cancers and birth deformities in all species for decades.
Regarding Ure prime interest in financial markets, we’d endure a global turbulence unseen since the 1929 Crash. Many fortunes would vanish.
Seems to us, the only point they don’t really dwell on is the potential for a quick chill from an Indo-Pak exchange serving as a lead-in to what we’ve penciled in as the coming MaundURE Minimum.
What bothers us? (And here’s the whole thinking-point of 1200 words so far, lol):
“The time ahead may being a bigger economic calamity that even the Great Depression. Maybe by a couple of orders of magnitude with a billion or two dead or dying and the heat going off, return of massive ice sheets and all that. What’s a bitch is there may not be any effective ways left to spend on those delicious profits.”
So on that cheery note, we’ll now return to research for an upcoming Peoplenomics article: “Best People-Killers: War, Weather, or Worship?”
Bonus Thinking Point
Remember the dates of the Renaissance? Back side (bottom) of a 500-year (nominal cycle). 14th through 17th centuries.
Wouldn’t it be some graceful-shit if we’re in the same “flowering” of human advance on our own cycle’s backside?
Remember, as the Sun cools, the color temperature will change (lower) and this may provide for a bit of “global healing” (see Richter & Tan, 2014). This as the IR/NIR component of sunlight changes up. Which then gets into another light crown discussion which we’ve been nattering-on about since 2016 both on the Peoplenomics side as well as in my book Dimensions Next Door.
Whew! Back to the economics, then, shall we? Just remember, Thursday the Blue ox gores Gore.
The War With Mexico
OK, we’ve been through all this in models years ago. What’s coming to pass is very-much “in bounds” in terms of escalation path and such.
The current footwork is well-described in the AP story about how the shakeup at Homeland Security involves more than just Kirstjen Neilsen being asked to show herself out…
In one model, the growth of illegals gets so overwhelming that US forces will open fire to staunch the flow and then wer=’re into the re-run of the Mexican-American war, but it would be more like a (*Spanish-speaking) Balkanization of several states (SoCal and parts of west Texas) and the U.S. would be demonized and that will dash any chance of a Trump second presidency.
Modeling, though, is squishy and anything can happen. Especially when the mainstream keeps people dumbed-down and insists it’s not a war.
In case you are not good at remembering so far back:
verb: war; 3rd person present: wars; past tense: warred; past participle: warred; gerund or present participle: warring
1. engage in a war.
“small states warred against each other”
As I explained yesterday, the Balkanization (i.e. divide (a region or body) into smaller mutually hostile states or groups.
“ambitious neighbors would snatch pieces of territory, Balkanizing the country“) arises from the fact that we have at least a half-dozen parties to the conflict including multiple national governments, cartels, drug consumers, Sanctuary promoters and a certain eastern European socialist who has been supporting reconquista groups.
Big money, though for said billionaire. And it will be the short of a lifetime as it becomes apparent.
In the Now
Trump just turned up the global trade war by tweeting:
“The World Trade Organization finds that the European Union subsidies to Airbus has adversely impacted the United States, which will now put Tariffs on $11 Billion of EU products! The EU has taken advantage of the U.S. on trade for many years. It will soon stop!”
Dow futures are only down 14 – perhaps people aren’t past the morn ing hangovers yet on the Street?
National Federation of Independent Business outlook just posted this morning:
Unfilled Job Openings Ties Record High; Owners Retaining Workers at Record Levels
WASHINGTON, D.C. (Apr. 9, 2019) — The NFIB Small Business Optimism Index increased 0.1 points to 101.8 in March, a historically strong level and an indication that small businesses continue to power the economy after being briefly shaken by January’s government shutdown. Overall, the Index anticipates solid growth, keeping the economy at “full employment” with no signs of a recession in the near term. The Uncertainty Index dropped six points to 79, returning to a more normal level for recent years.
Which is why we don’t expect the world to end today. But eventually, sure.
OK, off to a drive-by hamburger after dryer hose shopping spree at the local hardware emporium. Zoom client conference at 1 PM and gotta get my veggies planted. Busy times but moron the morrow..
Extra Credit:Send a link to this page to everyone you know with a cover note: “No matter how shitty today turns out, this is still “the good old days.”