“Nested Bayesian Investment Analysis” is our upcoming Peoplenomics.com report for this weekend and I wanted to mention how it arose since how an “old man in the woods” can come up with new ideas may be of interest.
As I have explained previously, I have designed and use something I call a light crown. It was outlined in an October 2016 article on the Peoplenomics website and I described it in one of my books (tab on menu).
The “crackpot theory” of the light crown goes something like this:
- When neurons fire, then can emit a photon (light particle)
- See Richter & Tan “Photons and Neurons” (2014)
- Do humans come from the factory with an unlimited capacity to fire neurons? A quick look at all the “dumb people” in the world argues maybe not.
- Are there, then, ways to “personally re-energize” one’s capacity to “neuron fire?”
The answer is not clear, but my self-experimentation with various forms of photo biomodulation (light crown is just one) have been extremely encouraging. Most mornings before coming out to my office, I spend 20-minutes “taking light” (in special forms) and it seems to improve thinking. Or, it could be placebo effect. Time will reveal more.
This coming technology is the real forefront of bio-medicine. A visit to the government’s PubMed website and a search of LLLLT (low-level laser light therapy) today yields more than 5,900 papers. A search for the term “photobiomodulation” brings 836 papers to study.
OK, which has what to do with the market turning down (early futures were down 160 on the Dow)?
While I was “taking light” this morning, three concepts occurred to me:
- Most investors seems to make simple Bayesian investment decisions. (Two-factor)
- Exceptional investors may be making nested-Bayesian decisions (multi-factor)
- And due to limitations on our physical “wetware” A.I. may be more of a risk to humans that most admit because they are not bound to human/binary (neuron) decision simplifications.
Which then leads to the analysis on Peoplenomics this weekend. (It’s $40-bucks a year to subscribe and yeah, that’s where the deep-thinking stuff goes. UrbanSurvival is just tip of the brainberg, so to speak.) But, I wanted to toss out a few breadcrumbs for the financially indisposed.
Oh Goody! Data!
International Trade and Producer Prices are just out. But, before we dig into the trade numbers, you might want to take a gander at CBS’ “Higher China tariffs could cost Americans $767 per year” and Reuters “As tariff hike looms, China asks U.S. to meet it halfway, denies backtracking.”
Perfect foreplay for the trade data:
“The U.S. Census Bureau and the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis announced today that the goods and services deficit was $50.0 billion in March, up $0.7 billion from $49.3 billion in February, revised.
Next, we roll over to the Labor Department for Producer Prices:
“The Producer Price Index for final demand rose 0.2 percent in April, seasonally adjusted, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Final demand prices advanced 0.6 percent in March and 0.1 percent in February. On an unadjusted basis, the final demand index increased 2.2 percent for the 12 months ended in April. Leading the April rise in the index for final demand, prices for final demand goods climbed 0.3 percent. The index for final demand services edged up 0.1 percent, and prices for final demand construction advanced 1.6 percent. The index for final demand less foods, energy, and trade services moved up 0.4 percent in April, the largest increase since rising 0.5 percent in January 2018. For the 12 months ended in April, prices for final demand less foods, energy, and trade services advanced 2.2 percent.
And with all this, the Dow futures are now looking to open down 174…
Uber IPO Pending Tomorrow
Son #George_the_Uber_driver might be on Fox Business tomorrow to talk about the Uber IPO. As G2 was telling me Wednesday: “I’m just a driver, but IPO’s do give employees a chance to own a piece of the company they work for.”
G2’s diamond-rated, but missed the 2,500 rides cut by April 7 cut to get into the “driver bonus pool” that will pay some drivers up to $40,000 for getting onboard early. (40,000 rides to qualify, we hear.)
G2’s meantime is aghast at reports such as “Uber drivers go on strike in London and U.S. ahead of IPO, early protests sparse.” G-2 thinks “It’s pretty stupid to protest against the company that pays you…who does that?”
Welcome to social media and idiots, son. Biting the hand that feeds you is what young “social mediaites” do. Upside: If there are strikers in Seattle, that’s just more money for G2….
NY Times playing bookie today figures “Uber I.P.O. is Expected to be Priced at the Midpoint.”
Big Troubles in Big Tech
A couple of stories to ponder here:
Madness on Bordering Dept:
Trump declares ‘invasion’ at border after DHS says 1 percent of Honduras, Guatemala entered US. 11-13 percent of Mexico is already here, in case the radlefts don’t mention that during their ongoing attack on Olde ‘Merica. They are sooo desperate for meaning and so hating of hard work…
“The white population of the United States increased by 17.5 percent between 1950 and 1960, as compared with 26.7 percent for the nonwhite population, so that white persons constituted 88.6 percent of the total population in 1960 and 89.3 percent in 1950. Thus, the fairly large difference in decennial rates of growth produced a rather small change in percentage composition.” (emphasis added)
Anglos were just under 90% when I was born and today it’s down 30 percent to 60% (and will drop under 50% in 2043). All without a single vote on this policy of white-supression by the corrupted Congress. And who’s paying?
Simple-minded me: Seems like reverse racism is US national policy. Which is why no border dough.
We’ve been predicting a Mexican-American War II for years now. The drug-laced low-intensity conflict is fueled by anti-American socialists in the sanctuary cities who seem to disdain the rule of law. Some of which require entering legally…but who needs to think so rationally, huh?
Looks like (for whatever else people claim about him) president Trump is eyeing John Bolton with some suspicion now since the NY Times story this morning “A frustrated Trump questions his administration’s strategy in Venezuela.”
Wait! Isn’t that what the war-mongering neocons do? Instead, maybe their think-tanks ought to open up their heads to other approaches and read the recent Peoplenomics piece on how successful China has been with its Belt and Road Initiative.
Do commerce and development, not war kiddies. Maybe the 243-year old country would pick up some game tips from the 2,430 year old country, yah think? “Peace and Prosperity” – the old American Whig Party mantra.
“Brains not Wars” might be a good slogan too, but half the left would be disqualified as mindless “true believers” rather than “Question everything!”
Showdown set over testimony: Trump, Democrats are locked in a constitutional showdown comes as no surprise. More realistic? “Watergate reporter throws shade on Nadler’s claim of ‘constitutional crisis’, questions if issue resonates with voters.”
Oh, you mean those of us pissed at 2+ years of time-wasting and trying to overturn the election? That?
But, say, here’s one that doesn’t get mentioned much: Runaway, crazy, obsessive “opposition” is really going around the world – including Russia (not just the US): “Russians, Opposition Figures Sentenced Over Role in 2016 Montenegro Coup Attempt.” Maybe such social extremism is due to too many cell phones, we’re thinking.
Opposition antics will ramp up, we’re thinking, in 2020 because instead of clearly stating solutions, con-grease will sit on its ass and pontificate. Maybe it’s better they do nothing, I suppose but still, the dream of proactive, anticipatory, financial and and logical values-based government…well, that’s a fairy tale, ain’t it?
Epic Policy Fails Dept.
“Pope Francis makes it mandatory for clergy to report sex abuse.” You mean it wasn’t????
Attention Ghoulish Children
Made it to the BBC in “Millennials ‘wrongly relying on inherited money’”
We’re planning to spend it all…just so’s you don’t go building castles in the sand…