Buy the freakin’ dips” or hide in cash? Hell of a tough investment decision to make if you manage your own tradesLet’s toll through some things to consider.  Trump on Trade Talks, Fed money supply data, and fresh CPI figures just out…

First, we had a series of Tweets by the president this morning about the roll-in of tariffs on the Chinese.  We’re sharing his comments due to experiments here involving a TTTS (Trump Tweet Trading Strategy), lol:

“….The process has begun to place additional Tariffs at 25% on the remaining 325 Billion Dollars. The U.S. only sells China approximately 100 Billion Dollars of goods & products, a very big imbalance. With the over 100 Billion Dollars in Tariffs that we take in, we will buy………agricultural products from our Great Farmers, in larger amounts than China ever did, and ship it to poor & starving countries in the form of humanitarian assistance. In the meantime we will continue to negotiate with China in the hopes that they do not again try to redo deal!

Tariffs will bring in FAR MORE wealth to our Country than even a phenomenal deal of the traditional kind. Also, much easier & quicker to do. Our Farmers will do better, faster, and starving nations can now be helped. Waivers on some products will be granted, or go to new source!

….If we bought 15 Billion Dollars of Agriculture from our Farmers, far more than China buys now, we would have more than 85 Billion Dollars left over for new Infrastructure, Healthcare, or anything else. China would greatly slow down, and we would automatically speed up! We have lost 500 Billion Dollars a year, for many years, on Crazy Trade with China. NO MORE!”

Although the HDT’s (hate Donald Trumpers) pike to picture Trump as a madman, this actually hangs together pretty well.  Just the posture to have going into trade talks which will go on over the weekend.

Second point to consider: From the Fed H.6 money stocks report [Thirteen weeks ending April 29, 2019 from thirteen weeks ending: Jan. 28, 2019 (13 weeks previous)] M-1 is increasing at a 3.1% annualized rate.  Remember, at the end of 2018, this number was being shrunk at a 2.7% annualized rate and that’s one reason the market was down at year-end so badly:  Not enough “slosh” to invest in the market.

One can almost build a case for a decent summer rally after we work through this “sell in May and go away” period.  Strong hands will come in after the weak hands wash out…MAYBE?

Third data point:  This morning’s CPI/Inflation Data just out from the Labor Department:

“The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) increased 0.3 percent in April on a seasonally adjusted basis after rising 0.4 percent in March, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Over the last 12 months, the all items index increased 2.0 percent before seasonal adjustment.
The gasoline index continued to increase, rising 5.7 percent and accounting for over two-thirds of the seasonally adjusted all items monthly increase. The index for energy rose 2.9 percent, although the index for natural gas declined and the index for electricity was unchanged. The food index fell in April, its first monthly decline since June 2017.

April 2019 cpi chart

The index for all items less food and energy increased 0.1 percent for the third consecutive month. The indexes for shelter, medical care, education, and new vehicles all rose in April. The indexes for used cars and trucks, apparel, and household furnishings and operations were among those that declined over the month.

The all items index increased 2.0 percent for the 12 months ending April, the largest 12-month increase since the period ending November 2018. The index for all items less food and energy rose 2.1 percent over the last 12 months, and the food index rose 1.8 percent. The energy index increased 1.7 percent over the past year after posting 12-month declines the past 4 months.

After the data, Dow futures were down about 130.

Not Her Again!!!

Oh-please God not again….  Looks like Zombie Politics has dawned as “HILLARY HITS NEW HAMPSHIRE: Fresh off speaking tour, Clinton heads to first primary state.

Meantime, James (who must have approved the FBI spying on the Trump campaign) Comey is peddling the left’s idea that indicting Trump after his term is done is in the cards. Seriously?

We see things a little differently: Trump-hating is the #1 fund-raising tools the left has.  Because they sure can’t bitch about the CPI, employment, the stock market, or any other rational measure. Why, they’ve even stalled the wall and keep watering down America. Nothing “left of left” but Maxine and Cortex extremism. And Hillary’s old-style jingoism.(HOSJ)

Meantime, we are curious about those lies to the FISA court (Steele? “Verified?”  ROFLOL) and who approved FBI spying on the Trump campaign?  Where’s that in the Constitution?  We figure Comey’s talking-trash because he’s in deep schitz as the sordid details are surfacing…

The measured view from one of our deep-thinking commenters goes like this:

” I have no illusions about Trump, but to claim that leftists hold the high moral ground is to be a dupe for the most morally bankrupt of wannabe rulers.”

Amen, brothers and sisters! If socialism is so great, buy ’em a one-way ticket Cuba or Venezuela and let the rest of us remain free of such delusion and spew!  (Take “climate change with you, too…)  I’ll spring for the one for Cortex..Coach, one way, no carry-on, non-refundable… since it’s a worker’s paradise and all…

The Climate Hoax Unraveling

Not to burst another blindly brainwashed-into-you thought bubble – but “climate change” has been going on for >10,000 years.  Tax-free, and not funded, either.

Yet here’s more evidence that the current round of hype on “global climate change” (GCC) is more about taxing people (and thereby lowering consumption and forcing more people into the Globalist “rent your life” business model) than it’s about saving unborn Bambi’s and reefs.

Observe that the 117-year record for snowfall up in Minnesota has been crushed this week.  And our kids in the Denver area are slogging around in leftover snow today.  Colorado University grad ceremonies will press on (in the snow).

Out in our backyard, we’re seeing hard evidence of GCC being MIA.  Last year, the first official 90+ degree day was May 16th.  Been around that date for all of our almost 20-years in East Texas.  This year?  We may not hit it until a month late.

And the COLD (not warming) will likely cause problems for farmers who in many areas have not been able to get crops in because the ground is simply too wet.  If I were to saddle up the old orange Kubota and drive around our tree farm, the ag tires would tear up the land badly and would leave 2-3″ tire tracks.  Not what earth-friendly people do and it wrecks the soil.

Meantime, don’t expect the GCC fog bank to lift.  It’s all just-another huge monetization.

Average high in our area (Tyler, Texas) this month (to date) is 78.3F.  Last year it was 82.46.  In 2017 the first 9 days average 79.9 while the 2016 average was 78.3.  Change?  No, variances from normal.

Forces with more money than you and me combined are “working us” because the greater reality is resource depletion and those at the top are downsizing lifestyle by wrapping it up in a flag.  Go read “How We Know What Isn’t So: The Fallibility of Human Reason in Everyday Life.”

Resources are the problem.  We’ll be in deep famine before NYC floods from rising sea levels.  Bait and switch marketing, anyone?

Last year about this time, the Washington Post wrote a reasonable piece “Global temperatures have dropped since 2016. Here’s why that’s normal..”  This is how the “Get frostbite to get sunburned” angle is being poured into your head.  Say WTF and question everything!  Learn to use Excel. Pivot tables and ask though questions like “what’s seasonal adjustment when comparing year-on-year periods?”

Problem is, with the Sun entering an extended cooling phase that will last at least through 2023 (that’s in the NOAA data files), the cooling trend is likely to accelerate. Those “Seers” of the future who touted moving “north of 40-degrees” may have actually gotten it exactly wrong.  What the data suggests is that’s going to be colder, not warmer in the short to intermediate term.  But, to each, their own spin.

Uber Day

George2 was on “Morning’s with Maria” today as Uber’s IPO hits.  #george_the_uber_driver is NOT one of the striking drivers.  “Got bills to pay.”  In Fortune Here’s What Analysts Are Saying About Uber’s IPO.  It’ll be priced to value the company at about twice the price of Ford which, gotta say, is pretty impressive.

Waiting on the Nukes

All talk about deescalation but no concrete action as Pakistan calls India for military de-escalation of border tension.  Our nickel bet “nukes fly before year-end” is still on the table.

Korea Tensions Rising, Too

After it was revealed the US has seized a 17,000 ton ore carrier (moving coal from Indonesia to NorK-land, we’re not surprised to see the nice, predictable reaction in Kim Jong Un orders military to maintain “full-combat posture”.

Some “Future-Shapers”

Start with the CBS story “Allegations of widespread fraud raise questions about the safety of generic drugs made overseas.”

Jobs growing fastest in “red” counties, though wages lag. Yeah, always gotta put a bash in, lol.

Marijuana use continues to expand as IL gov touts adult-use marijuana plan, FL dispensary cap lawsuits, Euro MJ conference & more of the week’s top news.  Reminds me, BTC up to $6,261 this morning.

And in the suds? What the Boston Beer-Dogfish Head Merger Means for the Future of Craft Beer.”

Hell of a future coming, is it not? Toss in crooked political spying by the government, loon’s on all sides, open border madness and cratering purchasing power…yeah, some real fun ahead.

More tomorrow..Peoplenomics on Nested Bayesian investment decisions is pushing 3,700 words already (Today’s column is 1,640)…sorry in advance about the length, but it’s a somewhat grown-up concept to contextualize…

Around the Ranch: Aging, Figuring, Hamming, Dreams
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