CPI Day, BTFD or Duck & Cover?

Buy the freakin’ dips” or hide in cash? Hell of a tough investment decision to make if you manage your own tradesLet’s toll through some things to consider.  Trump on Trade Talks, Fed money supply data, and fresh CPI figures just out…

First, we had a series of Tweets by the president this morning about the roll-in of tariffs on the Chinese.  We’re sharing his comments due to experiments here involving a TTTS (Trump Tweet Trading Strategy), lol:

“….The process has begun to place additional Tariffs at 25% on the remaining 325 Billion Dollars. The U.S. only sells China approximately 100 Billion Dollars of goods & products, a very big imbalance. With the over 100 Billion Dollars in Tariffs that we take in, we will buy………agricultural products from our Great Farmers, in larger amounts than China ever did, and ship it to poor & starving countries in the form of humanitarian assistance. In the meantime we will continue to negotiate with China in the hopes that they do not again try to redo deal!

Tariffs will bring in FAR MORE wealth to our Country than even a phenomenal deal of the traditional kind. Also, much easier & quicker to do. Our Farmers will do better, faster, and starving nations can now be helped. Waivers on some products will be granted, or go to new source!

….If we bought 15 Billion Dollars of Agriculture from our Farmers, far more than China buys now, we would have more than 85 Billion Dollars left over for new Infrastructure, Healthcare, or anything else. China would greatly slow down, and we would automatically speed up! We have lost 500 Billion Dollars a year, for many years, on Crazy Trade with China. NO MORE!”

Although the HDT’s (hate Donald Trumpers) pike to picture Trump as a madman, this actually hangs together pretty well.  Just the posture to have going into trade talks which will go on over the weekend.

Second point to consider: From the Fed H.6 money stocks report [Thirteen weeks ending April 29, 2019 from thirteen weeks ending: Jan. 28, 2019 (13 weeks previous)] M-1 is increasing at a 3.1% annualized rate.  Remember, at the end of 2018, this number was being shrunk at a 2.7% annualized rate and that’s one reason the market was down at year-end so badly:  Not enough “slosh” to invest in the market.

One can almost build a case for a decent summer rally after we work through this “sell in May and go away” period.  Strong hands will come in after the weak hands wash out…MAYBE?

Third data point:  This morning’s CPI/Inflation Data just out from the Labor Department:

“The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) increased 0.3 percent in April on a seasonally adjusted basis after rising 0.4 percent in March, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Over the last 12 months, the all items index increased 2.0 percent before seasonal adjustment.
The gasoline index continued to increase, rising 5.7 percent and accounting for over two-thirds of the seasonally adjusted all items monthly increase. The index for energy rose 2.9 percent, although the index for natural gas declined and the index for electricity was unchanged. The food index fell in April, its first monthly decline since June 2017.

April 2019 cpi chart

The index for all items less food and energy increased 0.1 percent for the third consecutive month. The indexes for shelter, medical care, education, and new vehicles all rose in April. The indexes for used cars and trucks, apparel, and household furnishings and operations were among those that declined over the month.

The all items index increased 2.0 percent for the 12 months ending April, the largest 12-month increase since the period ending November 2018. The index for all items less food and energy rose 2.1 percent over the last 12 months, and the food index rose 1.8 percent. The energy index increased 1.7 percent over the past year after posting 12-month declines the past 4 months.

After the data, Dow futures were down about 130.

Not Her Again!!!

Oh-please God not again….  Looks like Zombie Politics has dawned as “HILLARY HITS NEW HAMPSHIRE: Fresh off speaking tour, Clinton heads to first primary state.

Meantime, James (who must have approved the FBI spying on the Trump campaign) Comey is peddling the left’s idea that indicting Trump after his term is done is in the cards. Seriously?

We see things a little differently: Trump-hating is the #1 fund-raising tools the left has.  Because they sure can’t bitch about the CPI, employment, the stock market, or any other rational measure. Why, they’ve even stalled the wall and keep watering down America. Nothing “left of left” but Maxine and Cortex extremism. And Hillary’s old-style jingoism.(HOSJ)

Meantime, we are curious about those lies to the FISA court (Steele? “Verified?”  ROFLOL) and who approved FBI spying on the Trump campaign?  Where’s that in the Constitution?  We figure Comey’s talking-trash because he’s in deep schitz as the sordid details are surfacing…

The measured view from one of our deep-thinking commenters goes like this:

” I have no illusions about Trump, but to claim that leftists hold the high moral ground is to be a dupe for the most morally bankrupt of wannabe rulers.”

Amen, brothers and sisters! If socialism is so great, buy ’em a one-way ticket Cuba or Venezuela and let the rest of us remain free of such delusion and spew!  (Take “climate change with you, too…)  I’ll spring for the one for Cortex..Coach, one way, no carry-on, non-refundable… since it’s a worker’s paradise and all…

The Climate Hoax Unraveling

Not to burst another blindly brainwashed-into-you thought bubble – but “climate change” has been going on for >10,000 years.  Tax-free, and not funded, either.

Yet here’s more evidence that the current round of hype on “global climate change” (GCC) is more about taxing people (and thereby lowering consumption and forcing more people into the Globalist “rent your life” business model) than it’s about saving unborn Bambi’s and reefs.

Observe that the 117-year record for snowfall up in Minnesota has been crushed this week.  And our kids in the Denver area are slogging around in leftover snow today.  Colorado University grad ceremonies will press on (in the snow).

Out in our backyard, we’re seeing hard evidence of GCC being MIA.  Last year, the first official 90+ degree day was May 16th.  Been around that date for all of our almost 20-years in East Texas.  This year?  We may not hit it until a month late.

And the COLD (not warming) will likely cause problems for farmers who in many areas have not been able to get crops in because the ground is simply too wet.  If I were to saddle up the old orange Kubota and drive around our tree farm, the ag tires would tear up the land badly and would leave 2-3″ tire tracks.  Not what earth-friendly people do and it wrecks the soil.

Meantime, don’t expect the GCC fog bank to lift.  It’s all just-another huge monetization.

Average high in our area (Tyler, Texas) this month (to date) is 78.3F.  Last year it was 82.46.  In 2017 the first 9 days average 79.9 while the 2016 average was 78.3.  Change?  No, variances from normal.

Forces with more money than you and me combined are “working us” because the greater reality is resource depletion and those at the top are downsizing lifestyle by wrapping it up in a flag.  Go read “How We Know What Isn’t So: The Fallibility of Human Reason in Everyday Life.”

Resources are the problem.  We’ll be in deep famine before NYC floods from rising sea levels.  Bait and switch marketing, anyone?

Last year about this time, the Washington Post wrote a reasonable piece “Global temperatures have dropped since 2016. Here’s why that’s normal..”  This is how the “Get frostbite to get sunburned” angle is being poured into your head.  Say WTF and question everything!  Learn to use Excel. Pivot tables and ask though questions like “what’s seasonal adjustment when comparing year-on-year periods?”

Problem is, with the Sun entering an extended cooling phase that will last at least through 2023 (that’s in the NOAA data files), the cooling trend is likely to accelerate. Those “Seers” of the future who touted moving “north of 40-degrees” may have actually gotten it exactly wrong.  What the data suggests is that’s going to be colder, not warmer in the short to intermediate term.  But, to each, their own spin.

Uber Day

George2 was on “Morning’s with Maria” today as Uber’s IPO hits.  #george_the_uber_driver is NOT one of the striking drivers.  “Got bills to pay.”  In Fortune Here’s What Analysts Are Saying About Uber’s IPO.  It’ll be priced to value the company at about twice the price of Ford which, gotta say, is pretty impressive.

Waiting on the Nukes

All talk about deescalation but no concrete action as Pakistan calls India for military de-escalation of border tension.  Our nickel bet “nukes fly before year-end” is still on the table.

Korea Tensions Rising, Too

After it was revealed the US has seized a 17,000 ton ore carrier (moving coal from Indonesia to NorK-land, we’re not surprised to see the nice, predictable reaction in Kim Jong Un orders military to maintain “full-combat posture”.

Some “Future-Shapers”

Start with the CBS story “Allegations of widespread fraud raise questions about the safety of generic drugs made overseas.”

Jobs growing fastest in “red” counties, though wages lag. Yeah, always gotta put a bash in, lol.

Marijuana use continues to expand as IL gov touts adult-use marijuana plan, FL dispensary cap lawsuits, Euro MJ conference & more of the week’s top news.  Reminds me, BTC up to $6,261 this morning.

And in the suds? What the Boston Beer-Dogfish Head Merger Means for the Future of Craft Beer.”

Hell of a future coming, is it not? Toss in crooked political spying by the government, loon’s on all sides, open border madness and cratering purchasing power…yeah, some real fun ahead.

More tomorrow..Peoplenomics on Nested Bayesian investment decisions is pushing 3,700 words already (Today’s column is 1,640)…sorry in advance about the length, but it’s a somewhat grown-up concept to contextualize…

47 thoughts on “CPI Day, BTFD or Duck & Cover?”

  1. So Trump is going to institute price supports for Farmers …. Isn’t that the translation. The more things change ……..

  2. If the Trump hating basis collapses, AND if Global Hoaxing collapses, AND a few other socialist wet-dreams also go “pop,” HOW will their minds ever survive?

    More likely, a new, fresh, and powerful set of delusions and rationalizations will kick in, and we’ll all just be fighting over new shiny things.

    Meanwhile, Rome burns…

    • @woftherr

      Aliens and sky images will be the next’ absolute truth’ preached by the libs ( which will be known as the ( GREAT DECEPTION )….but for only 12 years since the ‘earth will end and all civilization will cease’ as per AOC , who by the way as a true communist , never read a bible , or heard the prayer. Glory be to the Father ,the Son, and the Holy Spirit, as it was in the beginning. is now, and ever shall be a …..world without ending……AMEN

      • d, you are right; she is showing her limitations, to even speak about the world ending in 12 years and trying to tie that to global warming demonstrates such acute ignorance of a finer propagandized and brainwashed folly – in which she is being used mightily…

        Revelation 8 I am Alpha and Omega, the beginning and the ending,
        saith the Lord, which is, and which was, and which is to come, the Almighty.

        “Surely I am with you always, to the very end of the age” (Matthew 28:20).

  3. G – thousands of years of culture and intellectual advances ..R they not a Communists style government? Brilliant strategists these Chinese leaders – stealing everything they can get their greedy little fingers on – intellectual property, tech, weapons systems/designs,software. What they dont steal they just buy/bribe – aint that right Hitlery – how many agents were you directly responsible for Outing and subsequently having EXECUTED in China?? more than 20 – filthy demon whore that she is, IMHO. Diane Fienstein – we have videos of her Mercedes car/tag in China..on “business”, Pelosi on camera talking about buying nukes from Kim jong Il on trip..wonder where those bad boyz ended up? China is so upside down/backward right now, bad energy abounds..kinda like L.A. in regards bad energy..
    Howdy Doody loving Comey is going down..not just on prince andrew and little boys on Epstien Isle..gotz the pics..is that bubba in the background?is that the prince wearing a howdy doody costume?
    Pedo freak comey whatcha gonna do when they, “operators”, come 4Ubadboybadboy..

    Bitcoin – forget the moon, retargeting, The Void..? I know its a “forbidden zone”

  4. Today’s forecast is rain and SNOW in The Land Of Enchantment! It’s May 10 and the historical average high is 77 degrees. Of course, in this area we do have a rather large delta T. Yes, it’s weather, but with more snow at higher latitudes, we can plan on greater albedo – therefore less warming.

    Robert Felix(I believe) mentioned that the only thing that’s keeping us from an ice age now is inadequate precipitation. This year’s a wet one – for sure. Europe is dealing with cold too.

    I’d not be surprised if the food that President Trump is proposing distributing may end up going to Americans. We definitely need to get ahead of this curve. Another problem I see is the chronically wet nuclear power plants of Nebraska. More flooding there is just asking for trouble.

    It seems that the aged hildog is campaigning on yet more efforts to give women “equality”. Women are already the preferred class in this country and men are losing jobs to women – regardless of qualifications. As Judge Clarence Thomas mentioned(paraphrase): Preferences in education and hiring diminish the value of the degree or job in the context of being a member of a preferred class. In short, your work and achievements are not taken seriously. I don’t take the old hildog housewife seriously at all.

    • Thing is, that is likely a subsidence effect as the N.A. plate continues to meander West. What’s left behind is a slow-extending (thus seemingly sinking) East Coast. I’ve seen pictures of pilings set out in the water from major rocks, for example, and they have moved Authoritatively, the Pacific Northwest Seismic Network site note “The North American plate is moving to the west-southwest at about 2.3 cm (~1 inch) per year driven by the spreading center that created the Atlantic Ocean…”
      ref url: https://pnsn.org/outreach/about-earthquakes/plate-tectonics
      Because the US West Coast is moving NW by 3-4 inches per year, guess what? More earthquakes than the East Coast! (D’uh!)
      In the climate change/rising sea level nonsense the rising and falling of continents is buried by the hysteria promoters who misuse actual geological data to bend people’s minds to their agenda…
      I wouldn’t rebuild the sea wall, but I would go to a floating dock…

      • This stretching will eventually lead to the New Madrid quake as per Nancy at Zeta talk. Edgar Cayce has predicted it, so has Mary Summer Rain, Dannion Brinkley, and many others. Other parts of the world are sinking, too.

  5. “climate change” has been going on for >10,000 years.”

    Missed a few zero’s I think.. on the 10,000 year mark LOL…

    “Start with the CBS story “Allegations of widespread fraud raise questions about the safety of generic drugs made overseas.”

    I get a chuckle out of that… since after the cold war.. a lot of the old bio warfare centers were converted and became research centers for medicines.. LOL.. and most of our medications are produced overseas..


    Food for thought here… they produce our military might.. and our medications..

    Now .. pharmaceutical companies want a bailout.. OTFLMAO….
    give me a break.. we have been giving them unlimited funds for research.. then allow them to charge a hundred or more thousand percent above everyone else.. GMAFB…

    case in point.. my cpap broke.. ( hmm I wonder if they didnt’ have a chip programmed to shut down.. it just stopped working) to buy one in the USA four grand two hundred for the extensions etc..
    to buy one from the manufacturer same make and model.. two hundred with extensions.. HMMM…


  6. The unfortunate attribute of tariffs is that WE pay them! The Chinese may lose some trade, but they don’t pay the tariffs. We do – especially if there’s no alternative supplier. In some cases, there will be no alternative, since China has locked up most of the rare earth metals(we could mine them if EPA would allow it).

    If the tariffs are specific to China, I can see other countries providing least cost solutions. If America wishes to compete, we really do need to get rid of a massive array of regulations. We’ll have to accept some dirty industries or we’ll never be self-sufficient or even close.

    I don’t like tariffs, but sometimes they’re needed and work for the short term. I do hope that this move incentivizes a better negotiation and solution. I’m also hopeful that westerners remain somewhat welcome in China.

    • Yep we need to get rid of those nasty regulations,after all why build bridges, houses or anything else with mandated materials, when we could use far cheaper materials and wonder why they fall down,or companies and corporations running to borrow a billion or two of that cheap money to buy up the competition so down the road they can charge whatever they wish, adding more to the unemployed list, or have 2008-2009 knocking on the door again as I read there is somewhere around $700 trillion in derivatives floating around the world.Now not so long ago they surveyed business as to what were the factor’s slowing down their hiring more workers, and regulations were some nine or ten down on the list with demand for their products being number one,now deregulation is why you recieve 1% on your saving with paycheck loans,credit card companies (banks) etc charging what ever they want.The mess America is in is because of its own greed as American business rushed over to China to inflate their profits, park those profits in off-shore accounts and then whine that its China’s fault.Lol I wouldn’t miss the 2020 dog and pony show known as the changing of the guard for all the money in the world, as people rush out and whoop and holler on demand,makes one think that in reality we really aren’t that far from the primates of monkey see monkey do after all.!!!

      • Robert, boy, you are one brainwashed nut. You come on here, recently, we noticed, and start flaying and braying. You and Mark are 2 sides of the same coin. The twins.

  7. George, can we give it a rest on the climate denial already? It’s like the guy caught in the tech wreck who got excited every time he saw a dead cat bounce on the way down. Remember NASA? When you get 97% of all published scientists saying it’s a hoax, instead of the exact opposite, then let us know. It’s like a guy who says: Gee kids, I know 97% of the structural engineers say the bridge is defective, but that one girder over there looks sort of new to me. Just a little common sense please??? Best, Mike.

    • Ever see a Few Good Men? “You Can’t Handle the Truth!”
      No, my website and I have data to back up most everything I write. If you don’t like the data, not my problem.

      • George, your data? Your analysis? Please. Of course you’ve published all this in a peer reviewed reputable scientific journal? Forgive me if I stick with NASA and 97% of the real scientists in the area in the meantime.

        Commonsense inapplicable? Dead cat bounce fueled denial? OK. So be it. I guess you’re just one of the 3% who would still drive the grand kids over the bridge after 97% of the real engineers said it was defective. Best, Mike.

      • You keep misrepresenting the “97% article” Isn’t there like an Evelynn Woods Reading Dynamics nearby? 16 inches of snow in Denver records falling on the cold side I mean WFT are you so married to the lefty story line you can’t admit defeat? Like in 2016?>

      • George, I know you don’t normally like to include YouTube links, but I’d like to respectfully request a waiver for an exceptionally clear 3 minute perspective on Carbon Dioxide vs AGW/GCC (etc). Note that we are primarily dealing with BELIEF systems (opinions) on the subject, which means the debate will last through eternity. Perhaps several of them! But here is a short clip from an engineering group Down Under that gets to the heart of the matter, which identifies the BELIEF system used to create more taxes and government control. The Aussie perspective will reveal the utterly ridiculous BELIEF system for what it is. Then we can dismiss the never ending debate and go on our merry way. The BELIEVERS will still fanatically embrace their paradigm, but the rest of us can smile and concern ourselves with more important matters. 3 Minutes of clarity: https://www.youtube.com/embed/BC1l4geSTP8

    • I certainly agree, pumping endless amounts of carbon dioxide or any similar chemical given enough time can change the climate. However I disagree that any solution will come from turning more power over to DC. We as individuals can do a lot to impact how society moves. George more then many, does a great bit to control his impact even disagreeing with some of the premises. Solar, tree farms, land caretaker. We are the ones. Convert to bike, electric car, solar, different building priorities of more insulation and less space. It seems the left is waiting for government to force everyone else to change their ways, which wont work (see drug wars for examples). Do your bit, convince friends and family to do the same. Select renewable power from you elect company if you have the option. That is the way we will change this, not top down force. Put up or shut up, same way I view all the leftist taking airplane rides around the country to and from their masions, to tell us what bad climate abusers we are. It will be interesting to learn that perhaps the years of carbon use has buffered the climate and given us a minor impact from solar minimum as George has documented. I think most of use would have a less risky environment a little warmer then a lot colder. Wouldn’t be the first time just dumb luck saved our a__es.

    • @mike

      The same 97% of scientist that are funded by the GOVERNMENT….and their conclusion is what keeps them EMPLOYED….Fair and balanced you are not……and IF you think you are smarter and do more research than George…then unbalanced is a mile tag……

      • I see this pandering in scientific presentations and publications all the time. It’s truly rare to see one on any topic at all that doesn’t give some lip service to “climate change” and “underrepresented classes of people”. This is nothing more than scoring brownie points for the next grant.

        A real scientist needs to work outside the political system or anywhere their money can reach. That’s why so many good ideas have been created(and often lost again) in garages and basements. Independent research needs to remain free of political ideas and just follow the science wherever it leads – even if that science breaks other concepts or political ideologies. The most current “two edged sword” is massive computing power available to normal folks and software to go with it. An individual can conceptualize, model, design and 3-D print(or use subtractive processes) many new ideas at the macro level. Things get more dicey when it comes to designing and fabricating chips in your basement, but there are many in China who would claim to do that for you. I’m not sure how outsourcing an implementation to China will work in view of the new tariffs, since how does one value such a thing?

    • So you actually believe that 41 affirming scientists out of the total of 11,944 scientists surveyed, equals 97% of “reputable scientists?

      I believe it is a lot closer to 1/3 of 1% of “reputable scientists,” and BTW, many of those surveyed were neither “reputable,” nor actual “scientists.”

      To use your “straw man” analogy, that would be like one chemical engineer out of 300 engineers surveyed, deeming that a minor pothole in your bridge is cause for imminent concern.

      Please don’t cite stuff you can’t exhibit…

  8. “Tariffs will bring in FAR MORE wealth to our Country”

    Technically, at the end of the day the fiat monetary system chit-mark system has brought us unimagined wealth.

    Spin up a few pictures of the orange rivers in china Vs the clean rivers we have here. That’s immeasurable.

    Notice the air quality of Peking Vs any U.S. city. Mask free breathing here.

    Not sure what they do to their land over there but my 85 year old uncle over here tells me we waste land. We build subdivisions out in the middle of nowhere. My uncle calls Mc Mansions “buildings”. The Chinese move to cities and live in basement cubbies five stories deep.

    And we still have shelves full of TV’s, Tupperware and even sent a spare Tesla out into space for no good reason…. within two days you can have anything you want at your door. Do you want an MRI machine, order it.

    And there is no debt. Anyone here can flip BK and be “out of debt” by July 4th. Look at what Trump did under the disguise of “debt loss”. President. You don’t see that in China.

  9. Here is the problem with Trumps trade practices. He is betting that he will make $100 billion in tariffs…but that raises prices here, which will trigger inflation and that will trigger the fed to raise rates and we are back to recessionary Times right?

    China won’t make it easy for anyone and it’s dangerous to go to any kind of stand-off with them. Yes, many manufacturers are sourcing elsewhere in Vietnam, Cambodia, Mexico, Philippines, Indonesia…but there’s a learning curve and quality curve. Many companies like Apple, Tesla, and other manufacturers just signed huge contracts with China to manufacture in China for Chinese consumption…Just like Toyota, Honda and Mercedes have auto plants here, we are doing the same in China.

    This trade war is death to those plans. The thing is…we need China more than they need us. Wal-Mart, Target and other low cost discounters built their businesses on Cheap Chinese labor. When we signed the Chinese trade deal decades ago, it was American manufacturers that lobbied to get this deal done for the sake of profit margins, not the Chinese.

    As the years went by, China slowly developed a middle class and now a wealth class…and it opened up opportunities for American companies to increase their consumer base in China’s growing economy.

    This trade war puts a stop to a lot of that. And if it’s one thing I know about the Chinese, they don’t forget a sour confrontation. Whatever comes of this stand-off, our relationship with them will never be the same. Our prices on goods won’t be either.

    And one more thing…if anybody out there thinks this is Trumps idea…think again. This has the underpinnings off Mnuchin, Bolton and others. Trump has no clue about how anything works.

    Trump, yesterday claimed to the Boston RedSox that Lincoln lost the war as he was giving them a tour of the Lincoln room at the White House. What war he was talking about, nobody knows. The thing is…nobody was surprised…they know he is an idiot and he proves it everyday…so we have gotten to the point that we just laugh and shrug it off.

    • Your analysis is incomplete: You fail to account for the fact that some goods for which there is predictable demand, will be on-shored to America from China. This would counter your claim and would lead to some offsets due to the new re-industrialization of America. We could argue the size and amount, but I can see a lot of old capacity being turned on in America.

      Refer to the Fed Industrial Capacity and Utilization data here:

      Note the present utilization of capacity is 78.8%. A pre-China import level 1988-89 was 85.1%. Refer to 1973 (https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/TCU) and you will see capacity utilization at just under 89T%.
      That means a 10% increase in capacity utilization is at least possible.
      Moreover at the historical level, note the Internet bubble period reduction in capacity utilizations and indices here (https://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/g17/100_years_of_ip_data.htm) as cheap telecoms turned on Chinese manufacturing.

      Even one further point (to Trump’s notion): The higher tariffs will likely shift some production to America and the end prices will remain close to stable because the declining imports will save on transport charges and increase jobs available domestically.

      It’s never so simple ans political partisans wish when they white-wash complexity to scare up their true believers on both sides.

      • The re-industrialization of America will never happen, because those very jobs went to China, because the American workers wages just got too expensive. In 2016, Unions helped hire Trump, but it will have to be the decimation of the unions that will be the only way we can re-industrialize.

        Either that, or continue to keep the borders open and allow Mexican and Central American workers to scab the work to keep costs down. Because in the end, the demand for affordable prices is all American consumers want. That was made evident by the rise of the big boxes in the 70’s-early 2000’s.

        The only other way to make this work, is to totally change the supply chain…automate the logistics and eliminate brick and mortar and have everyone shop virtually to make it affordable for everyone. That will work, but then you end up sacrificing millions of jobs and creating a whole other set of problems that you set out to eliminate in the first place.

      • Before any production can be shifted back stateside new plants and factories will have to be built, to replace those rusting hulks of yesteryear, when America had a manufacturing base, rather then turning it into a financial base, one that only benefited the new found billionair’s.Now all that new found money will be headed into the treasury on its way to the pockets of either the to big to fail or the MIC as they keep raising the defense budget every year,now I was watching an interview with the Sec. of the treasury the other day and one of the issues brought up was our old creaky bridges and pothole roads, and he said if a two trillion dollar bill was signed by the R’s and D’s today that it would be at least ten years before anyone saw a new bridge or a new one lane road,so maybe Trump will save up all that money that belongs to the taxpayers or hand it out to the MIC or maybe give the 1% another large tax cut including himself of course,after all charity begins at home or so they say anyway.!!!

      • If anyone didn’t notice,the US is still the 2nd largest manufacturing economy in the world.

      • Mark… I really hate to say it … but I think your right… the last time I had read anything about retooling America industries.. there was a better than five year projected time. Most of the skilled industrialists that would teach are gone or close to leaving.
        We import our food.. our medicines or daily living products.. we are totally dependent on them for survival..unfortunately they are now just as dependent on our consumers for survival as well.

    • Mark, you are part of the liberal cesspool who over the years thought the Russians were better than us, then the Japanese were better than us, now China is better than us. When President Regan said “Tear that Wall down” & the Russians did, it showed the world who is on top. But the cesspool still tries to say, it ain’t so, the USA is just a bunch of greedy peons who need to be punished. Do you really believe your own garbage or have you truly become a San Franciscan to line your pockets with gold.

      Didn`t Japan buy Pebble Beach Golf Course at an inflated price & then sell it back to the USA for a loss? Ditto on Rockefeller Center in NYC.

      Didn’t the Soviet Union go bankrupt & became Russia again?

      Doesn’t China depend on our debt for their expansion.

      Cased closed.

      • ECS,
        I am not sure what I said for you to respond the way you did…but…Don’t put words in my mouth. I am not liberal…don’t have much of a taste for cesspools and am just sensible…and I have never in my life, nor will I ever be that person that thinks any country is better than us. Yes, some can do some things better, but overall, our standard of living, economy and citizen rights are by far the best in the world. Has Dumpster fire Trump tarnished our reputation and status a bit…Absolutely…Is it ruined…Not even close.

        And China depends on our debt? I think you have that backwards. We kind of relied on their money. Our biggest fear as a country is that they put a call on that debt.

      • I agree ECS…
        All we need is for the heads of manufacturing to want to retool and produce in america..
        The American Spirit is alive and well just waiting for the chance to show what we are made of.
        Although if we keep dumbing down our youth.. we will be screwed..
        Sometimes when I close my eyes and contemplate the future.. I envision my old broken body.. laying in a hospital bed.. the nurse comes in..
        Turns on the golden oldies music for me to listen to….



        Her body covered in tattoos and piercings..


        I think Our culture is shifting..from one of self pride and one of self worth.. to quite another direction..
        I forget where I read it but at one time I read that to keep people enslaved you had to dumb up the population. Freedom from oppression stems from having an educated population.

      • No, Mark. Just “no…”

        I have no doubt you are politically “moderate to conservative” when compared to those around whom you live. However, you really need to understand that you are living in a looney bin, and that you are in actuality, more Liberal than most Democrats in the 43 remaining free States of the Republic.

        As someone who actually saw the caricature of President Clinton, as Hitler, when it was published, on Page-1 of Xinhua, I can assure you that despite the whiny-assed Liberal rhetoric with which you choose to surround yourself, Mr. Trump is more highly regarded by people who matter, in foreign Nations, than any U.S. President, going back to at least GHW, and probably to Reagan.

        It is true that we depend on China to buy our debt. However, they can not call or dump. Either act would crash every market in the world. With all the markets in the toilet, there’d be no incentive for us to not repudiate, and leave them with nothing. If they were to call, the Fed would crank up the presses and we’d pay them off with worthless FRNs.

        Be that as it may, the U.S. market is absolutely essential to China. They can not sell enough junk tools, electronics, toiletries, and household goods internally, and to the ROW to maintain their industrial base if we close the door. What’s more, the Chinese econ wonks are quite fully aware of this, and have no solution, other than to maintain the status quo.

        My analysis indicates $662bln in tariffs @100% is our break-even point. If Mr. Trump stops pussy-footing around and gets serious about tariffs, he can go up to that number, which will destroy the Chinese economy without seriously affecting ours. I’m pretty sure folks, both in the Trump and in the Xi Administrations are aware. I’m also pretty sure Trump has advisors who’re better grounded in the root causes of the War in the Pacific than Western writers of school history books, and those advisors have let it be known that destroying the Chinese economy may not be the most desirable course of action.

        Popcorn, anyone…?

    • Let me try…$100b is just a wag as shoppers may adjust their buying to tariffs. If it turns into inflation, it won’t be because of wild spending; the fed will differentiate that… until there is a domestic hiring spree. If the tariff rolls into food subsidies, that would mean disinflation.

      Relations with China have always been rough. Starting with cheap labor for railroads and mining in the 1800s and not accepting them even as well as the Irish and Scandinavians. China’s backing of Korea and Vietnam turned those wars into permanent stalemates. Most favored nation status morphed into an opportunity to destroy our manufacturing base with Mitt Romney’s help and they’re negotiating strategy is “give nothing, stall and renege on concessions.” No love lost.

      We won’t miss the cheap junk with bad instructions.

    • “””trigger inflation and that will trigger the fed to raise rates and we are back to recessionary Times right?”””

      Mark… in my world I was facing this before DJT decided to tariff.
      Living in a world where income increases started to stall during the last presidents administration..it doesn’t matter how cheap it is.. costs are increasing faster than incomes.
      My budget nightmare last year was cut 15 grand off of spending.. I learned this past week I have to cut another 8 grand..
      Now I am not the only one in this boat.. read the local papers there..you’ll notice that the trend is widening.



      I applaud his attempts….
      It’s time to Bring a little pride back to our country.

  10. Dear Sir, please help me understand something. the media reports all tell me that inflation is low, but the dollar has lost about 96% of it’s value since 1913. how can inflation be low with that much loss in value? or are they measuring inflation simply as month to month which would probably show not that much of it? thank you.

    • It’s the magic of compounding.
      If I start with $10 and earn 10% on it today, tomorrow I will have $11. But, repeated again, I would have $12.1 by day 3, I would have $13.31.
      The magic is in repetition.

      Next, let’s pay a much lower daily rate: One lousy percent. If I made 1% on my money each day, starting with that $10, by the end of the year, I would have $374. Yet the daily interest was only 1%

      OK, when the rates go up, the gains expand exponentially.

      So we do $10 making 2% per day and what happens a year out? $13,504 in 364 days.

      Now let’s get wild and run 3% daily on $10-bucks. $470,706 in 364 days!

      Periodically, I run the numbers THE OTHER WAY. And you know what? Annually, it is only about 3.25% to 3.5% but it COMPOUNDS so you end up making more on the “interest on the interest” although there are logical limits.

      A colleague (whose initials are Ehor Mazurok, a brilliant fellow!) and I worked out back in 2001 that there is a theoretical limit to how long the paper money could be watered down without a reset. This of this as a “mark to market” event. We figured 83.5 years is about tops. That’s because history is littered with examples of fiat (paper money) blowing up when the residual purchasing power drops below 4-5% of original face value. But, there’s a catch. If you do it long enough, slow enough, and have enough dumb people who are progressively stipped of their assets, the “game” can run longer.

      If we use the bottom of the great Depression (1933) and add our 83.5 years, you come to the middle of 2016/ BUT that’s when we passed into the 4% residual zone. We have not had or taken the time to run out how bad things then become once the “personal asset stripping” is done. But, it’s well underway. As I explained in a deeper discussion of the move to a national Rent Your Life Business Model as the final phase of personal asset stripping which can prolong the “end cycle stage” of currency debasements.

      You need to visualize this clearly: The stripping of American net worth began around the top of the real estate bubble 2007-2007 and only appeared to rise due to the huge amount of “made up money” that the Fed poured into the paper money game.

      Now that they can’t do any more of that (data in the chart here https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?id=HNONWPDPI, you will see the asset stripping of personal net worth is once again underway.

      Sorry you asked?

    • Too bad we (voters!) cannot start a class action suit ;-), because voting never made any difference, sorry.

  11. “We’ll be in deep famine before NYC floods from rising sea levels…” and please try to speed it up by increasing humanitarian assistance to poor & starving countries in order to increase additional “useless” consumers.

    P.s. We are all just such good people just trying to help.

  12. Lets see know,
    U cant eat Bitcoins, U cant eat USDollars, U cant eat Gold, and U cant eat Yuan/Renmembi. Record flooding in Americas midwest this spring, with more “rivers of rain” than U can shake a stick at. US Livestock stocks hit hard – drownings. Corn,Wheat,Beans, Crops are going in very late – if at all. The largest source of protein in China is infected with African swine flu, culling continues. Avian flu is in the wings, no doubt..
    Historically G, what happens to populations when they start going hungry? I think inflation will be the least of our worries, with social unrest/hangery(hungry&angry) at the top of my list of worries.

  13. George

    “George2 was on “Morning’s with Maria” today as Uber’s IPO hits. #george_the_uber_driver is NOT one of the striking drivers.”

    It’s super that your son is doing OK now and things look bright!

    But what about the future? When you into your 50’s and 60’s sitting behind a steering wheel for 8, 10 or 12 hours is a bitch.

    I used taxi driving as a means to take collage classes after my GI Bill money ran out. As I owned the cab I could set my own schedule.
    In it’s own way this worked and I ended up doing engineering work with a major company for 25 years and now get a pension check every month.

    That keeps me nicely set up and I can sit at the computer ragging people on your web site!

    G2 has to be like us Germans! “They makes a plan and keeps to it” to quote Bogart.

    G2 needs an exit plan to move to better and more stable income sources!

    What happens when your vehicle gets wrecked or the insurance company puts your rates through the roof?

    Stuff happens and it can sideline you in an instant.

    Take if from the voice of experience you don’t want to be Ubering when you turn 40.


    Rocket Mike formerly Service Cab of Metarie #91, (circa 1977 – 1980).

  14. Say what you want about climate change .. the point is, it wouldn’t hurt to clean up the planet, a lot! The oceans, the air, the rivers. And for all you that hate being taxed, why not let Exxon and all the polluters pay a fair share? Right now they pay nothing. Let them put something into the pot since their regulations are being turned off by our gr8 leader.

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