The Jobs Report in a second. This is more important, I think…and we will have more detailed view this weekend for our Peoplenomics.com subscribers. Question is “When does a crash begin?”
Our Aggregate Market view looked like this at 6:15 AM Central today:
If this outcome is going to happen, our research projects the washout low for the year could come in around December 5th.
What we see in this chart is that early on, it looked like the market would underperform 1929 today. But no, a drop in the job cuts announced in September might propel things up today (when opening hjysteria passes) and maybe last into tomorrow. Next week? Worry…
This is not to call December 5 a firm prediction, at least not yet. Where the statistical darts are landing. Remember that all market declines are self-similar. In other words, they all look the same, until they don’t. On the other hand, there is some cause for keeping tabs on things when the lineups are as good as they are presently running.
We can almost look at this and think to ourselves: Gee, what would it take to goose the market up a bit tomorrow? An decidedly good (paradigm reinforcing) jobs report from the Department of Labor? Then, what happens after that? Can we look at the balance of this week as a “buy the rumor” set up to a “sell the news” sequence next week? After that does it contine on (and down) from there? This is one way to read the chart.
But when does a “crash” begin? When the market tops and heads down? When it’s all over? Or at some “shaker event” like a Black Monday?
In today’s early slog, Dow futures were up 40-something, but more to our liking would be a jump of up 150-250 points before the weekend. Our model would like that very much, but markets don’t listen to spreadsheets.
Bitcoin is $8,255, so the bitties are still holding; a kind of “insanity barameter” to our thinking.
Feel better? If the decline we’re modeling occurs, and if it precisely mirrors all indexes, that suggests a Dow in December of 14,113 while the S&P could drop to 1,564. Not worthy of bets, yet. And of course this is not advice. But it sure is a good time to have seeds, a fall back to the country, and the usual prepper gear laid-in for next year.
Because one of the main features of massive economic declines is generally hunger or famine. Not interested in hunger? Neither are we.
Now, About that Job Cuts Report
This ought to fuel the bounce:
CHICAGO, October 3, 2019 – Job cuts announced by U.S.-based employers fell to 41,557 in September, 22.3% lower than the 53,480 announced in August. This is the second lowest monthly total in 2019, according to a report released Thursday from global outplacement and business and executive coaching firm Challenger, Gray & Christmas, Inc.
Last month’s total is 24.8% lower than the 55,285 cuts announced in the same month last year. It is the lowest monthly total since April, when 40,023 cuts were announced.
Despite the drop, so far this year, employers have announced plans to cut 464,869 jobs from their payrolls, 27.9% higher than the 366,058 cuts announced in the same nine months last year. It is the highest January-September total since 2015, when 493,431 cuts were announced.
Third-quarter job cuts totaled 133,882, 4.8% lower than the previous quarter, when 140,577 cuts were announced. It is 10.8% higher than the same quarter last year, when 120,879 cuts were recorded. It is the highest third-quarter total since 2015, when 205,759 cuts were announced.
After a few minutes to digest, Dow futures actually dropped a bit, but that might just be the commercials getting ready to run things up later on. We’ll be watching this one from the sidelines.
The Circus Check
Since hysteria is America’s main growth industry anymore, let’s try some of these headlines on for “delusional fit” shall we?
Meanwhile, two impeachment victims are clear: The “two old white men on the dem ticket look out since slow Joe blew it and now Bernie Sanders health scare raises questions about his candidacy. Warren to play Roosevelt, coming to a Depression near you, as we’ve been saying. Don’t take that to the bank…a credit union, though, will do nicely.
For distant Scottish relatives, consider the story Scottish whisky makers reel over U.S. tariffs in row over EU subsidies and remember if you weren’t in the EU, it wouldn’t be an issue, right?
World thinks we’re idiots (and they may be right) as Putin jokes that Russia will meddle in 2020 US elections.
Look for a global move to begin supressing masks and other anti-facial recognition tools. Hong Kong Plans to Use Emergency Powers to Ban Masks at Democracy Protests, for example.
In Defense of the Paradigm
Kangaroo Court, anyone? E.U.’s Top Court Rules Against Facebook in Global Takedown Case. Such kangaroo jumps are typical in the long wave saeculum-length social cycles. See Strauss and Howe for more. And oh, look who else is trying to “gobble-gobble” some of FB’s dough: Turkey fines Facebook $282,000 over privacy breach.
Quid pro Cuomo? After Hospitals’ Donation to New York Democrats, a $140 Million Payout. Broke and Broker, by Dumb and Dumbercrats. Get’cher free lunch!
Grate story: U.S. tariffs grate on Italy’s Parmesan cheesemakers. And the worst of the trade was is not pastas as U.S. tariffs to hit 500 million euros of Italian food exports: farmers group.
Meantime, the MSM not making a big deal of it, but the US won a major illegal aircraft subsidy case against the EU at the WTO worth $7.5 billion as Trump on WTO case: ‘This case going on for years, a nice victory!’ Notice how his wins don’t make headlines like his losses in the MSM?
In even-handed media is does. Like Fortune which sums it all up in The Ruling on a 15-Year Dispute Over Airplane Subsidies Is in and the Losers Are…Wine, Cheese and the Stock Market.
Global Diamond Glut Crashes De Beers’ September Sales . Well, diamonds are forever, right? Someone isn’t reading our “100-Year Toaster” book…
Turnabout is fair hack: We hear a lot about eastern European hackers coming after western interests. But seems greed is an equal-opportunity motivator as Russia’s Sberbank Hit by Huge Data Breach.
That’s all I have to table this morning, except breakfast, so write when you get rich.