EmpSit Data and Re-writing History a Bit

EmpSit:  Employment Situation Report

A couple of hours before the open this morning, Dow Futures were down a bit more than 30 points as the global market is awaiting on US data to see how this week will wind-up.

So, here’s the data and there may be a MAGA reality here we need to consider:

“Total nonfarm payroll employment increased by 224,000 in June, and the unemployment rate was little changed at 3.7 percent, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Notable job gains occurred in professional and business services, in health care, and in transportation and warehousing.”

Our view of it:

  • Total people working was up 4.6% compared with a year ago.
  • Unemployment still a mere 3.7%  (Media is trying to sell 0.1% as a biggy…but we’re looking at real people working and see through the BS)
  • And the participation rate is stable, too.
  • Plus of the 224,000 jobs, the CES Birth-Death rate contributed less than half (102,000)

So it’s a damn solid report.  We look at the futures going down 70 and expect the pro’s may be buying as the day wears on.


To listen to the (far) right, Trump can do no wrong.  A sure, while the job numbers are a matter of constant fidgeting by economic miscasters that can move markets, this had not really the case with a more steely-eyed view….until this morning’s report.

That’s because THE one number that matters most is the total number of people employed (and at what kind of hourly) because that’s really ‘the economy.’

The way to turn this  ‘data’ into usable ‘information’ is to look at year-on-year results.  Which we did a couple of weeks back for our Peoplenomics.com subscribers.  We told them that on a percentage of year-on-year job gains, despite all the hoopla, Barack Obama will had Trump beat.  Today that has changed.

Trump is leading, at least year-to-date.

What this data reveals is that until now biggest percent-change in total working was Obama’s 2015 compared with 2014. +2.08%. So, credit where due.

However, after this morning’s data, for 2019 YTD, Trump has now carded a YTD Job gains pace of jobs up 4.6% compared with year-ago levels.

This is not to bring politics to the breakfast table today.  Rather, it’s to point out that despite all the nit-picking, the annual rate of job increases is not a wildly varying number until now.

However, when you think about the rate of illegals crossing the border an even work Truth peaks out at us.  That is, with the illegals coming into the country at present run rates, we are essentially in a ‘no growth’ economy.

What comes into focus is that both political parties are lying scum.  They haven’t ‘fessed-up’ that the only reason America is “growing” is because the population base is going up

Since the jobs rate was up 2.08% from 2014 to 2015, we decided to ask our resident data expert what the population was doing in this period.

Alexa, what was the US population in 2014?”

“The closest answer I have is 2013: 316-million.”

OK, real work.  Google, then.

“318.6 million (2014) and 321 million (2015)”

OK, up 0.75%.  Subtract population increase (0.75) from the jobs increase and the ‘real’ looks like 1.33%.

Let’s look at Trump’s best year..realizing he’s only had one complete year:  4.6% is what this year looked like year-on-year,

US Population today?  329.104,000  Last year? 327,200,000.

Same calculations:  Year on Year 2019 pop change:  +0.58%

So, with jobs up 4.6% (as of this morning) and body counts up 0.58%, we see the ‘real’ jobs are up nearly 4% on a population adjusted basis.

While the Trump-haters will scream about this, since Obama carded a 1.33 ‘real jobs’ and Trump on track for a 4.02% this year, there’s the matter of how accurate the body counts are.

Near as we can figure it, the variance between presidents is likely down in the ‘noise floor’ and that’s hardly something worth contributing money to ANYONE over.  Not that we’re stingy, but remember we are writing a book on Quality over on the subscriber side and one of the Great Unasked Consumer Questions is “What are we getting for our dough?

Answer:  Not much.

On Economics:  There’s a very high correlation of population increase.

On Poverty?  Still the same mess as before the crooked Lyndon Johnson came along with the money-thieving Great Society program.

On Crime and Drugs?  What, as you kidding?  We have lost one relative to black tar coming to Las Vegas from Mexico in the past couple of years, so pardon our grim reminder about that.

On-shoring of American Jobs?  Whether the trade warfare will end up being a net positive is still with the jury.  But Trump’s way ahead of Obama now.

As you can see, once you understand that economic growth is sort-of related to the body count, then the rabid drive by the left to open borders makes behavioral economic sense.  But politically?  Environmentally?  Socially?  No way.

That said, it will take some gunfire and border skirmishing before this comes into focus, or a CDC team tracking-back a hemorrhagic fever (like Ebola) before the snowflakes and the delusional begin to ask the only question that matters.

Don’t forget:  We pay trillions in tax dollars.  So the only question is?

What are we getting for our dough?

Peace?  Nope.   Secure borders?  Nope.  Women’s right to choose during the first six weeks?  Nope.  Lower crime rates?  No, just some category shift.  Sensible (social) media?  No.  Motivational and industrial arts training for all so we get our heads out of the ‘darn-n-smelly’?  No, sir, not that, either.

Those are the real problems of America and while it’s nice to herar a Trump speech about “Future Belongs to the Brave” – we have to add a condition to that.

The future belongs to the honest, even more so.  Bravery without honesty is brutality.  Honesty without bravery is death.

Snews Scanning

Anything of a trend-worthy nature?  How about:

You know, the reason the PTB have allowed us “useless eaters” to hang around (and it’s why so much immigration is going on) is that the fundamental business model of more people = more profits has been holding up OK.

When it breaks, as it probably will in Europe first, since they are about topped-up with refugees and immigrants, then the Big Slide can get underway.  You don’t need a lot of job creation if the population base stabilizes or drops.  Consequently, when we read about how Europe Red After “Devastating” German New Orders, we think this is likely to be just the first red flag of a failing Europe going forward.

We managed to get our ‘earthquake alert’ spot-on when issued at 8 AM Saturday morning at the bottom of the Peoplenomics report.  That was followed by the ‘Vancouver’ (Island) quake and then the California quake.  “Even bigger earthquake” could hit California in coming days.”

I will let you know if I get the ‘earthquake tireds’ any time soon.  Because we live a quiet life, we’re very sensitive to changes in ‘the field’ out here.  Usually the sense of extremely tired shows up 12-36 hours before a major quake and then it’s almost always a a 7.0 or larger one.

Talking himself out of a nomination?  Biden expresses skepticism of Democrats’ leftward tilt and Ocasio-Cortez’s mass appeal.  (Her ‘mass appeal’ is a lefty media judgment, not yours and mine.)

Brits and oil have never been a particularly rational pairing.  Now we read Britain seizes Iranian oil tanker headed to Syria, furious Tehran summons British ambassador over ‘destructive’ action.

High & Bye:  CEO fired at world’s biggest cannabis company.

And perhaps the longest ‘throw-range’ in the headlines could be found in this: Trump picks another Fed member who believes in the gold standard.

Why we own a tree farm: Restoring forests could capture two-thirds of the carbon humans have added to the atmosphere.  Oh, except we figured this out in 2000, or so.  Maybe science is slow in addition to often being wrong.

Did Robert Service ‘Borrow’ Something?

According to Wikipedia, “The Cremation of Sam McGee is among the most famous of Robert W. Service’s (1874–1958) poems. It was published in 1907 in Songs of a Sourdough. (A “sourdough”, in this sense, is a resident of the Yukon.)”

We are often confounded by the history of our English language variant and why something things become ‘literature’ and while other works (like my books) make valid points yet go largely ignored.

What’s more, a goodly number of the literary wunderkind may have been just plain lucky as I found in my Thursday researches.

In order to understand this, you need to know that I recently bought an extensive electronic archive of the very earlier  Popular Mechanics magazines from an online source.

Right away, I vowed to study them all, since what we can think is directly-proportional to the size of our data input collection.

There, on page 167 of the January 1905 edition (Vol. vii, No. 1) was this intriguing little ditty:

It sounded just “too familiar.”

While we can’t accuse Robert Service of plagiarism,  per se, there’s little doubt around here that his closing line from “ Cremation of Sam McGee”  was likely a spin on the poem in  Popular Mechanics from two years beforeCremation of Sam McGee‘ was published.

On The Poetry Foundation /do website, we find what Service published two years later.  In the Cremation, Service recounts a terribly cold cross country run that ends with Sam McGee dying.  Service built him a crematory on shores of Lake Lebarge and lit it off…

I do not know how long in the snow I wrestled with grisly fear;

But the stars came out and they danced about ere again I ventured near;

I was sick with dread, but I bravely said: “I’ll just take a peep inside.

I guess he’s cooked, and it’s time I looked”; … then the door I opened wide.

And there sat Sam, looking cool and calm, in the heart of the furnace roar;

And he wore a smile you could see a mile, and he said: “Please close that door.

It’s fine in here, but I greatly fear you’ll let in the cold and storm—

Since I left Plumtree, down in Tennessee, it’s the first time I’ve been warm.”

Your linguistic forensics may now be applied.

Our best estimate?  Popular Mechanics was widely circulated in the North as there was little to do but read when not working.  Women were few, whisky overpriced (so were the women), and magazines made the rounds when men gathered.

If you doubt my version of events, please turn to page 174 of that January Popular Mechanics and you will find another reason men read the magazine so thoroughly up North:

Since the archive of Popular Mechanics Vol vii #1 is pretty clear with the punchline (“Oh, please close that door…“) and pre-dates Service’ by two years, a statistical conclusion we lean toward is McGee’s “Please close that door” is nothing but a rewrite of the Popular Mechanics article.  Retold with a Yukon spin.


We leave it to the astute reader to define where ‘plagiarism’ ends and ‘creativity’ begins.  (We’d offer to refer the matter to the Supreme Court, but their ability to think clearly seems to be similarly frozen.)

Enough!  Time to rev up our big orange Husqy and mow down something besides English Lit.

“Moron the ‘morrow!

17 thoughts on “EmpSit Data and Re-writing History a Bit”

  1. I categorically disagree – $15 dollar an hour jobs are not individually sustaining let alone married couple and or family living. Tons of jobs and few that pay $65k or more annually which is the Maginot line for total welfare benefits from what I discern. If everything is so great hourly earnings would verify – they don’t. Lastly lets forget surveys go to the IRS directly and find out how many individual SS#’s are employed of course that would ruin the meme – final days of Empire are descending on us – Trump or no Trump. The Worlds bully is even more active than usual just hoping someone will cause a major regional and/or World War.

    • We gotta get you out in some sunshine of vitamin d therapy
      The world war is not until 2022-2024 though as my consigliere notes, we could have a foreshock.
      but for no, let the trend be your friend.
      The metrics Obama and Trump haven’t changed – and the total number of people working really is up 4.6 year on year (month on month basis). Now, the fact the bond colleagues of yours won’t get a rate cut? Says to me they have misjudged.
      would not be the first time.
      The problem comes down to: The people are right, bankers can be wrong, but they do manipulate the money…

      • Rate cut or not the bond market has already spoken – in fact I think most do not want a cut because it continues to destroy their asset-liability match’s and the truth is a rate cut officially verifies with unemployment below 4% regardless of how you want to count it or depend on it that we are in recession …… It’s only a matter now as to when those in charge say “We didn’t see it coming”……

      • “The world war is not until 2022-2024”

        George.. I’m not sure.. if DJT gets back in office it might be a later date before the true fireworks begin.. hes been pretty good at stopping the puppeteers from shoving the USA down the rabbit hole.


    • There’s too many people in the world. Since WW2, labor has lost pricing.

      Detroit security guards have been trying to strike.

      “The one-day strike was announced by Service Employees International Union Local 1, which wants to organize the security guards and help them get $15 hourly wages.

      The guards are currently paid between $11 to $13 per hour, according to SEIU, necessitating many of them to work second jobs to earn a decent living.”

      And the “good jobs”? have turned to tiered wages.

      A new factory is coming to Detroit, FCA:

      20,000 Detroiters signed up for more FCA job information

      “The new Fiat Chrysler Plant is expected to hire 4,218 production operators at $17 an hour, 345 skilled trades workers, and 387 supervisory employees. That’s a lot of jobs in the nation’s poorest big city. ”

      Don’t get me wrong. In Detroit one can buy a two-family flat for less than 50K. Depending on how motivated one is to become “Handy”, that $15.00 an hour can be parlayed. Like the cowboys building the nation, you might become a casualty of the rebuild. Is it worth it?

      4785 HURLBUT Street Detroit, MI 48214


  2. George:
    Growing up with exposure to music, i heard many and often pieces with titles such as
    “Variations on a (motif, melody, theme) by XX” by YY.
    You may have been able to pick out the notes that mattered but the piece was judged to be a new composition in it’s own right.
    Its not as bad as some I hear still on the radio.
    Try playing in order and listen to the rhythm line.
    Doors “I’m a Changeling”
    Lipps Inc. “Funky Town”
    Glen Frey “Dirty Laundry”

    So when I see a line lifted from one work into another, I have to ask is the new work a new creation enough to stand on its own? I understand as a writer you may feel differently. As a singer I listen to stuff like Kid Rock’s “All Summer Long” and here more of a tribute than a theft.

    Kind of like watching “Reversal of Fortune” and hearing Dershowitz tell Von Bulow
    “Your a Strange Man, Von Bulow.”
    Then watching “The Lion King” with your toddler son and hearing Simba say “You’re Weird, Uncle Scar.”
    Both times you hear Jeremy Irons answer:
    “You have No Idea.”

    Both lines fit both movies perfectly.


  3. Good post today…However, Trump is just the guy sitting in a certain chair and didn’t have a thing to do with the state of the economy. That pretty much runs itself. Trump can’t balance a checkbook ( duh…6 bankruptcies later) let alone control an economy.

    Clawsy bring up a good point though. If jobs are being added, at what salary? One thing that is missing is the state by state attack on the gig economy. Uber, Lyft and Amazon driver for example, are being forced by States to be recognized as employees and not 1099, self employed. That has added to the employment roles, but it’s hardly employment.

    Over 90,000 H1-B visa workers get added to the tech and bio-tech industry employment figures each year…That is added to employment stats but not to the census. This has been going on for years, so it’s not a Trump administration issue…It’s an ongoing, decades long wag the dog issue.

    I was especially fascinated with your Honesty quote…” Bravery without honesty is brutality. Honesty without bravery is death.”
    Classic. We live in a time of brutality… and maybe we always have…we just have more accountability features via a myriad of media choices that allow us to measure and think in terms of abstractions, variables, dimensions and probability. The truth is in front of two thirds of this countries eyes and ears…it’s just that 33% fail to absorb reality around them.

  4. I think it’s the earthquake predictions which make me feel tired, not the impending quakes. I hope things settle down for the west coast crew.
    While it isn’t well known outside of North Texas, there is a nasty little seismic fault centered near the old Cowboys stadium in Irving, TX. The worst earthquake I ever personally experienced was a 4.x tremor in Irving. The initial thrust of the quake was off the charts. I thought the building I was in was about to come down around my ears. After the initial thrust, the quake tapered off, and the USGS called it a 4-point-something. I saw a photo of the actual seismograph chart from a local university, and that initial thrust was unbelievably powerful.
    I was rather traumatized by that. My sympathies go out for those who to live with that threat every day.

  5. The stadium I mentioned below in my comment is the old original stadium location, not the current Cowboys’ address.

  6. No mention of Trumps speech at the Lincoln Memorial yesterday? I thought it was a good history re-lesson for the people that don’t like this country. He went through each branch of the military and told how they gave their lives for the idea of this country. Then each branch did a flyover. I thought it was done tastefully. Also Space Force made a presence. If you look at his tweet of the event and zoom in on the right and left of the Washington monument near the top in the clouds there are lights. 4 on right, 3 on left. Ships. Also during the fireworks, there was a TR-3B to the left. Wish I could post pics. We all need to get over our differences cause the only thing that means anything is LOVE. It is everything always. We need to get back to that, before we can move on as a species.

  7. “You know, the reason the PTB have allowed us “useless eaters” to hang around”

    I know. THEY NEED US THE BOTTOM TIER . because who do you control if there isn’t anyone to control.. what good is having all the peanuts if you don’t have anyone that wants them….

    I have done so many day labor and part time jobs that I really cannot tell you all of them.. during the hard times.. I took what came my way.. figured I would learn the job.. ( really now how hard are some of them to figure out the pattern ) (college is for the basics.. the rest is OJT I just had this discussion with a lady looking at my optic nerve.. she is just a tech.. but after thousands of them she can read that test better than the guy making the big money.. )
    But.. you don’t know everything you can’t build everything .. a plumber is still a plumber.. really now can you see an upper crust exec crawling into the sewer lines with a garden hose resperator to fix a valve.. think about it….then you need sales what good is having a store if you don’t have any customers…. you need someone to control if control is what you are after.. why start a war over oil if you don’t have anyplace to sell it or give it away.. what good is gold.. or Bit coin.. or the dollar pound etc.. coinage was a way to carry metals to trade for finished goods.. the paper money was for traders to insure that at a warehouse there was substantial goods insuring the bill..
    the PTB may have everything but it is nothing if .. you don’t have someone to fix it if it gets broken.. can’t build it if you have always had someone build it for you.. can’t make it if you don’t know how to make it.. a cookie is wonderful but..



    as much as they hate to think about it.. the peons of the world are needed…desired.. need is needed..




  8. G –

    Good work on the quakes. I’m going to look for a lock-limit down one day this week due to seismology.

  9. I had never put the tireds to earthquakes but these 2 biggies in CA sure affected me I think. I used to hang around 2 psychs that would have to take to their bed in mas dieoffs. Strange uh.

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