We have much to ponder:  New jobs report.  A winner.  Meanwhile, a series of Federal Reserve working papers has us considering the kind of future the Fed is looking at.  Then there’s more action by North Korea and a migration path to war with China if we screw the pooch in negotiations. But mainly, we’re … Read More

While we piddle a bit in the market, the real art of making money belongs to those who master the art of timing.  A deeper discussion in this morning’s Coping section following this. The question we can broadly ask this morning is a Trump Trend Change at hand? There are several reasons to believe this … Read More

Next time you get sick, I have a project for you. Spot the exact moment when you begin the transition from illness back to full health again. That is an “inflection point.” Simply stated, it is the instant of a trend reversal. It’s not limited to medicine, politics, economics, or statistics. It’s one of those … Read More

This may not make a lot of sense unless you read our discussion last Wednesday on the Peoplenomics side where I talked about the short-term trade we had on. But if you did read it, please be advised that we just closed the position and made a decent pile of “quarter pounders” worth. We’ll discuss … Read More

We run into this problem in economics (and other sciences) all the time. It’s called the Hidden Variable. Historically, in physics, hidden variable theories were espoused by some physicists who argued that the state of a physical system, as formulated by quantum mechanics, does not give a complete description for the system; i.e., that quantum … Read More

Technically, March through June in Tornado time.  It’s something we keep a close eye on, living as we do on the fringe of Tornado Alley. Sunday started off just fine:  Overcast and dry enough that I could finish putting deck screws into the small deck Elaine and I build Saturday off the “180° Room.” Having … Read More

There are some interesting accounting problems on the horizon for a lot of publicly held companies.  While they have benefited from the declining interest rate paradigm since 1980, if the bottom is really “in” on rates, any sudden moves could send corporate balance sheets seriously “out of whack” in a heartbeat. The result of that … Read More

This headline makes absolutely no sense unless you read our twice-weekly Peoplenomics.com reports.  Over there, I occasionally will discuss trading in non-dollar terms. For example, a trade I have on now (which may produce at least the fries when the market opens down a bit) may pay off upwards of 194 Quarter Pounders next week if … Read More

Alarming Talk? No, I Wasn’t Kidding nor was I delusional (any more than usual) when explained Thursday that my alarm clock failed to wake me up in time to write my usual (longer) Thursday morning Coping section.. A reader (the other one) thought my “precognitive oversleeping” was one of the best excuses ever heard.  Then … Read More

Trading in Asia was down a bit overnight.  A Bit week in Europe in the early-going, too.  And when I peeked earlier, the Dow was looking to drop another 25, or so at the open. This may be – in part – due to the Brits triggering the BREXIT move which will change the trade picture in … Read More

Strange, but super short Coping this morning. Overnight, my faithful travel alarm clock – that ran on a single 1.5 volt double A battery – decided to quit working.  I’ve had it since 1990 and to get that much use out of something is amazing in today’s “easy to break” world. I knew this was coming at … Read More

A fair bit on  the plate this morning.  In the Strategy area, we continue our discussion of three books that may provide a useful “look-ahead” reference series for the coming period of history. Under Tactics we take on the task of trading what may be one more small decline before the market heads up – … Read More

Hot off the Press Release: NEW YORK, MARCH 28, 2017 – S&P Dow Jones Indices today released the latest results for the S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Indices, the leading measure of U.S. home prices. Data released today for January 2017 shows that home prices continued their rise across the country over the last 12 months. More … Read More