Yeah, we are feeling vindicated by the market action Wednesday. Because as expected, the “Janet Effect” worked and that has broken the market out of a short-term trend and it clears the way for the final climb to our long-predicted August 21st area all time highs.
Along the way, we should see gold come back to life (a bit) and with that, Bitcoin COULD snap out of its sideways action we have called the “great hesitation” before it goes on to an all-time high that MIGHT be in the area of $3,000 to $3,100 per.
But to us, the biggest among these is the market breaking through the top of a declining trend line and throwing money into our trading account, since we have been playing the long side based on our (wackjob) estimates this would be happening.
This morning, Fed head Ms Yellen will visit with the fools on the Hill, but when you think about it, it’s more or less pointless.
They can’t seem to do anything about the Obamacare mess (so brace for another 25% med cost hike in 2018, they can’t do anything about a tax break, and they sure as hell haven’t acted like republicans on things like borders, immigration, and so on.
Nevertheless, her message about the economy was almost totally upbeat:
” …the economy appears to have grown at a moderate pace, on average, so far this year.
Although inflation-adjusted gross domestic product is currently estimated to have increased at an annual rate of only 1-1/2 percent in the first quarter, more-recent indicators suggest that growth rebounded in the second quarter. In particular, growth in household spending, which was weak earlier in the year, has picked up in recent months and continues to be supported by job gains, rising household wealth, and favorable consumer sentiment.
In addition, business fixed investment has turned up this year after having been soft last year. And a strengthening in economic growth abroad has provided important support for U.S. manufacturing production and exports. The housing market has continued to recover gradually, aided by the ongoing improvement in the labor market and mortgage rates that, although up somewhat from a year ago, remain at relatively low levels.
With regard to inflation, overall consumer prices, as measured by the price index for personal consumption expenditures, increased 1.4 percent over the 12 months ending in May, up from about 1 percent a year ago but a little lower than earlier this year. Core inflation, which excludes energy and food prices, has also edged down in recent months and was 1.4 percent in May, a couple of tenths below the year-earlier reading.
It appears that the recent lower readings on inflation are partly the result of a few unusual reductions in certain categories of prices; these reductions will hold 12-month inflation down until they drop out of the calculation. Nevertheless, with inflation continuing to run below the Committee’s 2 percent longer-run objective, the FOMC indicated in its June statement that it intends to carefully monitor actual and expected progress toward our symmetric inflation goal.”
Smart as Yellen is, I don’t see the point of talking to a bunch of do-nothings, and were it not a legal requirement she appear, she’d be better off grabbing a double Americano and going to the office to do real work…
Because Congress, sure as hell, doesn’t seem to do much of anything…so why tell them? Janet ought to start tweeting, huh?
Meantime, the financial news this morning continues to tell good things about the economy such as “Redfin: Home Prices and Buyer Competition Hit New Highs in June as Inventory Drought Dragged into 21st Consecutive Month.”
So our August high call still looks grand.
Where’s the Lynch Mob?
Speaking of the FotH (fools on the hill), did you see The Hill has an “Exclusive: DOJ let Russian lawyer into US before she met with Trump team…” As the Web Turns, huh?
We would have liked to see a more comprehensive investigation done thoroughly and promptly, but that would not have fed the failing news industry. Go ahead and think about that, for a second.
What would be the lead items in the (desperation) media with no “personality news?” Already you can see them turning to such “news” and Jared and Ivanka do Skitown while also touting how Kid Rock may run for the Senate from Michigan.
This last reminds us that yes, there is something in the water in Michigan, right? Kid Rock as a republican? OMG, ViseGrip me.
Eyeing the Trump de France
Well, here we go again. The press is covering the wrong story, we see, as the Washington Posts runs with “The Latest: A chaotic motorcade ride for reporters in Paris.”
Pardon moi, but this is NOT the story to bite nails over.
The story to bite nails over is this:
This weekend (or is it tomorrow?) Trump and the French hosts, Macron, et al, will lunch on the middle level of the Eiffel Tower. Fine.
EXCEPT that at the end of June Thieves stole hand grenades and other weapons from a Portuguese military base in the middle of the day.
We have heard various accounts of what was taken but the security problem for the French and American details is if nothing bigger than a Laws rocket, then the threat is close in. But if there were something like TOW missiles involved, then the range of threat rolls out 2-3 MILES and that’s a nightmare.
The story so far has been than hand grenades and a bunch of 9 mm rounds were taken, but if you were knocking over an armory, would you stop with sporting goods store material, or would you take some heavies?
I’d be worried about something like the TOW2-B, BGM-71D variant; the BGM-71F with a 2.8 mile range. And no, if any of those were at the armory (or taken) the governments aren’t talking. Except, of course, to suggest the armory theft was terrorism related.
OMG is that a hard conclusion to reach, or what?
I will feel soooo much better when Trump is back on American terra firma. I worry about everything…
Producer Prices/Final Demand
So back to economic data. Press release, please?
“The Producer Price Index for final demand increased 0.1 percent in June, seasonally adjusted, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Final demand prices were unchanged in May and rose 0.5 percent in April. (See table A.) On an unadjusted basis, the final demand index advanced 2.0 percent for the 12 months ended in June.
In June, almost 80 percent of the rise in the final demand index is attributable to prices for final
demand services, which increased 0.2 percent. The index for final demand goods edged up 0.1
Prices for final demand less foods, energy, and trade services increased 0.2 percent in June. For the 12 months ended in June, the index for final demand less foods, energy, and trade services advanced 2.0 percent.
Final demand services: Prices for final demand services moved up 0.2 percent in June, the fourth consecutive increase. Most of the June rise can be attributed to a 0.3-percent advance in the index for final demand services less trade, transportation, and warehousing. Prices for final demand transportation and warehousing services edged up 0.1 percent. In contrast, the index for final demand trade services moved down 0.2 percent. (Trade indexes measure changes in margins received by
wholesalers and retailers.)
Product detail: A major factor in the June increase in the index for final demand services was prices for securities brokerage, dealing, investment advice, and related services, which rose 4.0 percent. The indexes for machinery and equipment wholesaling, loan services (partial), insurance, inpatient care, and truck transportation of freight also advanced. Conversely, margins for apparel, footwear, and accessories retailing declined 3.7 percent. The indexes for motor vehicle maintenance and repair (partial) and for airline passenger services also fell.”
With this, the market is expected to open up only 10 on the Dow but 13 on the NASDAQ…
Not to be critical here, but as Google News and others continue to bang on Donald Trump Jr. this and that, in our survey, we have been finding the MSM are running about nearly 50% Trump email content, even though it’s a who cares…
If you’re looking for a less hysterical view of events, we’ve been tooling up a new website in our (non-existent) spare time. www.computationalfuture.com.
We use a different RSS feed selection in order to get broader (business and urban survival oriented) content.
The idea is (if I can get the software bugs out of it) that people might find news more useful if delivered on a timeline basis. Or, my colleague Grady with the Nostracodeus project has a concept called indicator words that are often associated with events prior to actual news taking place. That will be an interesting aspect, also.
Timelines are interesting because the whole Trump email mess goes back a whole year and despite the anti-Trump true believers hopes, there’s not much from last year that will impact next year. Like people driving forward while looking where the country has been….
But more as the project rolls along…just thought you’d like another news aggregation to consider in addition to our Break News page which is a kind of lite version of this other site…