Early Dow Futures were showing the market ready to pop a further 80+ points to the upside today.  Yet, there may be a simple technical reason:  Options expiration is just ahead.  And lots of bears like to buy just out-of-the-money put options (that go up in price as markets come down) in the fall. Yet,, … Read More

We begin this morning with a few remarks, though not as in depth as the Saturday Peoplenomics report, on how the “trade deal” hyped all-to-hell-and-gone last week is largely phony. The short reason is politics.  Since trade deals involve what?   Revenue.  And all revenue bills must begin in the House of Representatives.  And the House … Read More

I bet you don’t know too many people who roll out of bed at 4:00 AM, even on Sunday, and are seriously at work within minutes, do you?  I mean besides the one who is offering you these “insider notes for a high output life”? Being successful in life is not particularly difficult.  Must be … Read More

Unlike a Casino, you alone decide when to take your bets off when trading stocks. Which is why, when markets run against you, looking at  stocks as an analog to “gambling” is the most rational course.. This is a topic of great interest here because it has been a brutal week for bears.  This morning … Read More

We will get to this morning’s import and export price data in a minute.  But, the most important issue on my plate today is how to play this market.  Not an easy decision…but waiting could become even more costly. Based on  the early futures today (about 5:30 AM Central) our favored “Replay of 1929” track … Read More

CPI: Prices Flat Just out: “The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) was unchanged in September on a seasonally adjusted basis after rising 0.1 percent in August, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Over the last 12 months, the all items index increased 1.7 percent before seasonal adjustment. Increases in the … Read More

Today we pencil out how much money might be made in the stock market decline of 1929.  Such a decline would begin tomorrow or as late as next Monday and would  continue to almost Christmas, as some of our models suggest, there is still a lot of “processor time” to be thinking about other topics … Read More

House democrats are “Taking America Argentina.”  A not-too-obscure (we hope) reference to the roll of Death Squads in places long ago and far away like Argentina.  As Wikipedia explains them: “A death squad is an armed group that conducts extrajudicial killings or forced disappearances of persons for the purposes such as political repression, assassinations, torture, genocide, … Read More

Reader Note:  This is being posted in sections this morning because of the cold-front, T-cells, and rain moving through the area this morning.  The finished product should be up around 8 AM Central, as always.  If you’re reading earlier than that, here’s your chance to see if you can read faster than I can type! … Read More

No doubt, one of my favorite readers well scream at me about my twisted-up understanding of “digital assets” but for those paying attention, the discussion is worth having. There are, in Ure’s judgment, two distinct classes of “digital assets.”  The kind that are “offline” and the kind that require “online” to work. I’ve studied the … Read More

We can’t stare at markets all damn day, every day. So, things like  thinking through how to build a working “time machine” provide a useful distraction.  A “wait” machine for the brain?  LOL. Dual purpose, too:  Keeps the brain working which, in turn, makes what’s ahead for markets “come in more clearly..:“ Some people, like … Read More

Breaking Data – just out from Labor… The unemployment rate declined to 3.5 percent in September, and total nonfarm payroll employment rose by 136,000, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Employment in health care and in professional and business services continued to trend up. This Our two-bit analysis:  This is a LOT stronger … Read More

The Jobs Report in a second.  This is more important, I think…and we will have more detailed view this weekend for our  Peoplenomics.com subscribers.  Question is “When does a crash begin?” Our Aggregate Market view looked like this at 6:15 AM Central today: If this outcome is going to happen, our research projects the washout … Read More