Sanna Marin – remember the name – she is being sworn in this week as the new prime minister of Finland. Normally a “who cares?” except for one thing: Age 34.
This triggers a whole lot of optimism around here, but for reasons that are non-apparent, though she did make the NY Times for her efforts.
What makes her a “special case” in our view of things, is that she seems accomplished and (dare I write this?) normal. From Wikipedia…
How’s all this to be a block of building optimism around here? Seeems to tell us the political pendulum may have reached it’s extreme and the end of the “me, me, me” generation could be at hand. Might there be an emergent new (global) consensus is out there someplace?
Still, the Digital Uprising Ain’t Over
Although Elaine and I have hope based on a lot of Millennials we know, one of whom we will be visiting with tomorrow (intensively interested in the immortality, by the way – which gets to the “digital ascension” discussions we’ve had): There are basically three waves in society right now: Oldsters, a class we belong to. The 40-somethings, many of whom are totally spoilt, self-important, egomaniacs.
Yet the third block (which we suspect Marin in a “first case” of) is something new. M’s are coming. With a lot of makers and people who have spent tons of time online questioning the old ways, they are now rotating into their own. Bringing refreshing “new takes” of way and values held by the Oldsters, to another iteration.
In all six groups. Good Old/Wise, Bad Old/Programmed. Good X, Bad X, Good Millennials, and Bad.
Present times present an echo-effect of birth control (1960’s-1970’s) and the following divorce explosion (1970’s-1990’s) and the resorting of sexual orientations. See it in drug use, for example, too – not just relationships.
It’s like we Oldsters discovered ganja, the 40-something entitled tried to “own it” yet here come the NM’s (Neue Millennial’s) with the implementation ideas and plans. Don’t forget to share a bag of shake with the old folks!
Global stuff, but a few high-level examples.
Take Nancy Pelosi. Like so many oldsters, she (like Donald Trump) has not discovered when to STFU. In fact, reading over “Pelosi Campaign Launches ‘Don’t Mess With Nancy’ Merchandise After House Speaker’s Viral Rebuke of Reporter…” we’re struck that Ms. Pelosi is doing what all [old, over-bearing, self-important] political figures do: They pivot, shoot, and monetize. All “hunters?”
Got news for the Old Way’ers (Pelosi, Trump, and Schiff who we’d lump in that self-important middle Bad-X demo): Learn the digital age “Power of Silence” – because people aren’t stupid.
Example #2: Joe (who should also STFU) Biden. Because he’s making the same Pelosi mistake – he’s trying to bullshit his way through familial bad behavior when found out. Doubt it? Take a gander at “Biden Gets Hostile With Axios When Asked About Hunter, Pledges Family Will Not Conduct Foreign Business If He’s Elected.” No-Go, Joe. Quick “Name that Tune!”
Biden may be able to slip his “bad-baby-all-grown-up-now bullshit” (about not knowing what Hunter was doing with Barisma) to Bad Olders (pre-grave democrat zombies) and self-important X’ers. But here’s the news flash: The M’s get it. Oh, and they’re sick of it, too.
There is, of course, a complex calculus going on. You have Wise Olders along with Malfunctioning Oldsters. More than a few Good X’ers, but if they spend more than 2-hours a day on social, Bad is their more likely label.
What’s optimistic is the LARGE and growing numbers of M’s who are using their data time to listen to podcasts…and that’s why the up and coming hero’s of change are people like Joe Rogan and Jordan Peterson. No bullshit deeper thinking, – questioning everyint – and exploring ways of looking at life that are (again, dare we speak truth to Digital Mobs like this?) very much in alignment with the Wise Elder’s view.
Ah…for those who wonder what the backside of a Depression will be like, the people aspect is beginning to come into focus: The Internet may have actually improved the world after all, though it may yet break (which would be dandy for the Bad-X’ers and Bad M’s.
On this point, did you see where “China orders officials to remove foreign tech from computers ?” This matters how? Gee…let me count the ways: For one, the Chinese are in a trade war. This is payback and we know what is payback, class? (“Payback’s a bitch, teacher!”)
Extra graham crackers, a second milk, and you can vape at recess today.
Into the Economic Trenches, Then
Big cover-up this week will be the inspector general’s report. As we have been telling you, the IG reports both to the Attorney General but also to Congress and what’s the old saying about “serving two masters?”
OK, why? A Wise Elder type might be tempted to quote Mark 6:24 in the Bible:
“No man can serve two masters: for either he. will hate the one, and love the other; or else. he will hold to the one, and despise the other, Ye cannot serve God and mammon.”
A Neue Millennial’s (Good M’s) view would tend to be more open.
“Dude! It’s the gig economy…what’d you expect? Get a grip – or change it!”
While the Bad X’er and Bad M’s would ask:
“What does any of this have to do with me…me…you listening m-eff’er?” “Hey…I’m talking to you….”
Ah, the road rage generations. I often wonder if too many video games and too much social media has led to this national epidemic? 50.1% of road rage is Bad M’s and 21% Bad X’er’s.
Skeptical? Digital Media Expressing? Well….Sansone and Sansone (back in 2010) described road rage as having?
“Associations with Axis II disorders. Borderline personality disorder. Borderline personality disorder (BPD) is an Axis II dysfunction that seems to harbor the relevant prerequisites for road rage. This disorder is characterized by impulsivity (e.g., reckless driving), intermittent intense dysphoria, inappropriate intense anger, difficulty controlling anger, and transient paranoid ideation.
Sounds really close to social media addition, to us simple grays. What’s on social media and acted out by young people with crappy older role models.
“ Wait – You Missed the Economic Trenches!”
Sorry, you’re right. Indeed, I did. But there’s not a lot of “hard data” to drive markets this morning. We expect CNBC will find a market moving trade story today…but other than that, seems to me we are in a Wave iv which could get complicated until early January since the wave (ii) up was simple, we expect wave (iv) to draw out and frustrate. Like so…
90-minutes ahead of click-time, the Dow futures were down 20. More interesting is Japan up, China flat, and Europe down a bit.
The bigger news will come tomorrow with the Productivity and Costs report and the Small Business Optimism read from the NFIB. Other than milk-toast, I’d be hard-pressed to find two more non-urgent numbers.
What Matters is Famine
Lest you think Ure has gone slightly nutzo today, not being his usual skeptical self, let me reassure you, doom and gloom is pending for humanity. But, we can’t focus on that every day, day in and day out. Get’s old. Besides, there are some proper M’s out there who will have the ability to “come to the rescue of the world” and they will be aided by the (disappointingly small numbers) Good Gen X’er’s
If you get nothing else out of this morning’s column, par attention to this: The world is “going cold” – climate change hype is about exactly upside down – and when it gets here, global famine will be BRUTAL. Reminding you of this because the NOAA Solar Cycle Progression is just out. It plain sucks:
In case you’re not sure how to read this, the data (and projections) are continuing a track to a new Modern Minimum. The reciprocal of Global Warming. Solar System Cooling – and we’re part of what?
You remember from school the average solar cycle length is about 11-years, right? When you look at the charts, such as one we did recently on the Peoplenomics side of the house, it becomes clear that the “big solar peaks” are gone – they drove the climate-change hysteria which mined moolah from the gullible cause victims. The forward data projections may be found over here and you can run them yourself. Pepto at the ready.
If you’ll take my word for it, the December 2022 expected sunspot number of 0.2. Contrast that with the high during recent major peaks in solar irradiance which was in the 170 range (some of the data here) and even higher (220) in previous.
These are data sets that you will want to keep because governments won’t want people to panic in future years, so – like temperature data supporting climate hype – we would somehow not be “surprised” if un-altered data sets begin to disappear.
We are working on some of the implications of this – Sun getting more yellow and cooler than the recent whiter/bluer, higher UV output periods. You know, of course, that yellow suns are good for tree and stalk growth (our tree farming should be great and celery looks like a coming crop…). Blue/whiter/hotter Sun temps produce more flowering and tons of grain.
Looks to me like that will be going away.
As my friend Robin Landry says, what turns a recession into a Depression is a food shortage. In the 1930’s we were in the Dust Bowl and that ruined agriculture along with bankrupting of farmers. All driven – in part – by the traction motor (tractors) coming to the farms and replacing the draft animals, that were still commonplace in Big Cities (like NYC and Chicago) until the mid 1920’s. (Street sweeping was a bigger deal with horses around!).
We haven’t got a model of the future implications of “global cooling” yet but we have a few ideas you might begin thinking about: There’s the matter of solar panel outputs will be reduced. The amount of wood for household heating (and hot water) could decline, so it’s a fair time to think about a solar water pre-heater for the home and lots of other formerly “fringe farmer” kinds of tech.
Earth sheltered homes will roll back into their own, I expect, as well. You remember that the semi-sunk-in sod homes of the Great Plains were a good survival platform. Sunk into the ground, a home halfway under would tend to cool in the summer from ground temps and would heat in the winter. Why, just imagine how with perimeter insulation well-below the frost line, how efficient the modern remakes could be?
For now, we are coming up on the end of a major real estate cycle, too. When it begins to break, you could wake up one morning and see the market down 2,000 points. But, not before we get to the final, blow off market highs.
In our work, there’s a small – yet non-zero – chance the market could work sideways until the first few weeks of January and then begin a screaming rise.
From there, a rally into May, or so, and then a Wave 1 down from June into next Fall – perhaps around this time a year from now.
At that point, “normalcy” may be able to hold on and people will think “Gee, that wasn’t so bad…” But then – as Wave two up (the bounce) from that fails and we begin down again, that’s when the skyrocketing price of food will likely reveal what we’re looking at in the Sun data right now: Decreasing solar irradiance and less food. A LOT less. Like famine-causing less.
Just ravings of an old man? Well, I’ve been slowly working on insulating the open parts of the shop – spray-in insulation for gaps around doors and such. On wide temperature swings, the changes have resulted in being able to maintain a 5-7 degree warmer shop by just using windows and vents. May not seem like much when its in the 60’s around here at night presently, but with cooler summers and colder winters seemingly implied by the solar data today, we’re looking at moving our garden to a new, high sun availability, part of the property. We’ll be thinking that one through since the alternative would be cutting down a dozen trees and we don’t abide by “going Brazil” on trees.
Lots to think about and only an hour to the market open. BYC’s are in the $7,500 range and given long-term trends,, they won’t look interesting until north of $11,500.
All of which makes it a horserace, doesn’t it?
Not to be a nag, but drop by tomorrow for another dose of common sense, if you can handle it…
If not, you can go follow the new Miss Universe 2019, Zozibini Tunzi on Twitter over here….We hope she’ll get around to saying more than “ Be Kind” but what the hell, in today’s world, that seems a good place to start, doesn’t it?
Write when you get rich,