Our Big Story this morning is probably one that feels a lot like we, as a Nation, are being set-up for a January Slam.
“The Slam” (JanSlam) near as I can label it, will have many components all smashing on America at the same time.
The first we can see by this morning’s poll on The Drudge Report and gives Hillary Clinton the #2 spot on the Democrat ticket. When I looked earlier, Joe Biden had 31% to Clinton’s 24%, but a “slam” would be for the corporate wing of the party to simply “big-shot” their way into another lease of the White House.
This is not exactly conspiracy-thinking. When we read the poll line-up this morning, all of the dems, save Biden, had been eclipsed in the results by people smart enough NOT to go through the warm-up debates… Just like Clinton jumped over Bernie last time, looks like the new game in town is to Jump Over underdogs who can’t write the Big Checks.
Result: Best government money can buy.
Jobs Matter, Though
Frankly, we were disappointed by the weak job creation numbers Wednesday (+67,000 by ADP). This morning’s Challenger Job Cuts report, does balance things off…but only a bit:
“Job cuts announced by U.S.-based employers fell to 44,569 in November, 11.3% lower than the 50,275 cuts announced in October, according to a report released Thursday from global outplacement and business and executive coaching firm Challenger, Gray & Christmas, Inc.
Last month’s total is 16% lower than the 53,073 cuts announced in the same month last year.
Employers have announced plans to cut 559,713 jobs from their payrolls, 13.1% higher than the 494,775 cuts announced through November last year. It is the highest January-November total since 2015, when 574,888 cuts were announced. Job cuts announced in 2019 have already surpassed the full-year total in 2018, when 538,659 cuts were announced.”
A bit of simplistic math here: 67K new less 44.5K cuts seems to point toward a net increase of 22.5 thousand, which – with population growth – is not very good, at all.
The federal numbers will be out tomorrow, too, so we don’t have long to wait. But, if our bead on this is wrong (yeah, I know, perish the thought, huh?) we could actually see a decline in the total number of people employed. This, too, could be a factor in a “January Slam/JanSlam.”
Think in terms of Peak Trump.
Impeachment Weighs, Too
Thinking people know there’s nothing “legal” or “fair” about the democrat’s “kangaroo court” impeachment hearings in the House. Yet, that’s the whole point of not removing a sitting president via the Courts. This is purely a political showdown.
“Pelosi to discuss status of impeachment…” Oh, the pseudo-drama of it all. GTFU.
On the other hand, that has to apply to both sides equally. The Washington Post reports that “Barr’s chosen prosecutor says he can’t back theory that Russia case was U.S. intelligence setup.” (We think they skipped the word yet, but let’s toss Durham’s Grand Jury into the JanSlam potentials, too.
On the other hand, here’s where it gets fascinating: In my “model of the JanSlam” what would fit would be the “sudden” arrival of a well-funded anti-Trump republican renegade. Could it be someone like Pence? Or, do the R’s have as many other “dog-in-the-manger” types as the D’s? Time will tell, but we’re shading our expectations thataway. Can’t trust anyone, these days, can we?
Another factor in JanSlam ought to be the slow, dawning realization that Globalism may be dead.
Just to underscore this a bit, did you see when the Treasury Sec sent off a letter to the OECD telling them (gently) the U.S. has not interest in a Global Tax scam the globalistas are pushing?
This is another big factor because it seems to us that the globalist-run dems would love to have a Joe, Hil, or Mikey to ram-through their Global Tax Play. As we always remind at every opportunity, the power to tax IS the Power to Rule.
Woes to the Internet?
Not much US focus on this, but did you see the Xinhua piece “U.S. urges countries to suspend digital service taxes amid digital row with France?”
Let’s go ahead an pencil in possible disruptions (or attacks) on the Internet. Globalists have an agenda to charge for “free speech.” Toss in the EUropricks trying to hold digital providers worldwide revenue hostage and we cmight see the quick collapse of the internet over the next 6-8 years as coming into focus.
There’s already something of a mood change beginning. Earlier this year, we noticed social media use was up 9% (year on year to 2018) but thing is, mobile phone sales were only up 2%. Point? When consumer saturation arrives, social hits the wall.
NY Times reports on another angle to this in: How Disputes Over Big Tech Are Disrupting Global Trade…
Growth is the cocaine of finance. Low (or no) growth is something that causes recessions and worse.
Which Gets Us to Markets
We gleefully pointed out for our Peoplenomics subscribers Wednesday how the market traded well-below, but managed to rally to almost smack ON our trend line Tuesday at the close.
After the job cut report, here’s how things looked earlier today based on futures pricing around click-time (which was before demo-speak):
As always, we’ll save the larger contexts of all this for Saturday morning’s Peoplenomics report…
Trends and Turns
When we moved to the East Texas Outback in 2003, who would ever think that America’s future might be found by going “back on the farm?” But here’s another one of those “signs and portents” that we wonder what they mean: Macy’s president Hal Lawton is stepping down to become CEO of Tractor Supply.
A couple of personal health notes this morning, since Pandemic diseases always make our “Big Worries” list. In England, Norovirus closes 1,100 hospital beds in England.
And, one of our retired “fright attendants” said be sure to look at the headrest on your next flight. Turns out, they’re filthy…Don’t try to sneak any antibacterials on, though. Can you imagine trying to talk a can of Lysol through TSA? Yee gads!
Off to continue the annual leaf clean-up. Short work season, but this being a “tree farm”….
Write when you get rich,