The Murder Cycle is back. 22 dead in Maine and 30 injured. Military firearms instructor shot up a bowling alley and a bar.
No school in Lewiston, Maine today.
The Murder Cycle is “soft” – a range of 130-150 days. Making this one close to the shooting at a Tennessee house on June 15th of this year. Six died in that case 133 days ago. And the May 6 mall shooting in McAllen Texas was 173 days ago.
There was also a Father’s Day shooting this year, so the window is open for more in the next week to 10-days. Depending on how Future clusters the data.
Bloodied Financial Markets
Did Freddy Krueger land a gig in Finance? Which part of the recent stock market decline has scared you the most?
- The part where we told you months ago that the market could be halved by Thanksgiving?
- Or the cheery version that it might hang on until late spring of next year?
Over a year ago we published an outlook based on our Aggregate Markets work – the Peoplenomics Aggregate. Here’s the same data set and projections so you can have them in hand for Wave 3 (2) which should be a rally. But that won’t happen for a week or two.
The Wave 2 (completing in our meta view on July 31 of this year) sets up the larger decline, but this, too, will be fractal in nature and will be comprised of multiple waves that nest in a logical way.
OK, with the major Wave 2 rally lasting 292 days, we are ready now for the damaging Wave 3 down. And this is only the first third of the damage – if that!.
Here’s an Elliott count to consider based on crossing of 2 and 13 day moving averages of the S&P 500:
The fat red arrow down is the first leg of a likely five which together will comprise the larger 3.
You will notice in the data above the chart that Wave 3 down holds a lot of possibilities. One key thing to keep in mind (AT LEAST) until a week from tomorrow is that the (v) of this down trend could extend. The Elliott rule only says that 5th waves cannot be the smallest wave.
Thing is, there is one – last – remote hope for a rally in technical analysis, but we’re honestly skeptical of it though it’s a smallish risk of a couple of percent based on what we’ve seen in past markets.
Speaking of which, the invariable comparisons with 1929 abound but we really enjoy the art of “waveform picking.” This is where you look for a similarly shaped decline and then use it as an idea generator:
And speaking of which, the A.I. bubble seemed to begin bursting in earnest Wednesday and don’t overlook the potential for a bloodbath in social media as well. Now that states have filed suit this week – along our contentions that kept us from trying to Go Big by Going with social media.
Walk Our Talk?
It’s OK, thanks. We had a very nice day Wednesday – despite me exiting our short position too early and leaving $500 on the table. I had other things to do around here than sit on my butt staring at streaming quotes. Still, up 8.5 percent for the month and up 38 percent year-on-year. A little better than a passbook savings account? Uh….
It wasn’t really that hard (if it was, could Ure do it?). But is there a thrill from sitting in front of a monitor to pile up paper? Naw. This close to the exit in life…other things are more pressing. No point being the richest man in the graveyard.
Knowledge + Action = Money
May help your study of finance to understand that our meta index and applications of Elliott, Trend Channels, and basic technical analysis (using meta data) is only one slice of the pie.
The Economic Fractalist was kind enough to share his view overnight in comment. The part you need to remember is?
A History of October 1987 Quantum Fractal Series:
The 1987 SPX and global crash occurred in the subfractal (2) 2-2.5x nonlinear devaluation window of two interpolated subfractal (1) and. subfractal (2) monthly fractal series. The first was a 20/45 of 46 months fractal series starting in July 1982 and the second an interpolated fractal series of 11/26 of 27 months fractal starting in November 1984.
Preceding the Sept-Oct 3 phase daily crash fractal series was a self-ordered 20 May 1987 4-phase 13/32/25/18 day :: x/2.5x/2x/1.5x fractal series ending 21 September 1987. The 4/9/10 day : x/2-2.5x/2.5x 3-phase crash series occurred from 21 September to 19 October 1987 with a peak to nadir loss of 33%.
The SPX is again in the terminal 2x-2.5x nonlinear devaluation window of two subfractal(1) and subfractal (2)series: a 1982 13/30 year fractal series and a 13 March 2023 52/107 day fractal series. The crash daily decay fractal series appears to be a 27 September to 2 November 2023 5/12/12 day :: x/2-2.5x/2-2.5x series. At a 4-hour unit level the last 12 days appear to be following a 4/10/10 4-hour unit :: x/2.5x/2.5x 3-phase fractal decay series ideally ending around noon on the trading day of 2 November 2023. The greatest decline will likely occur in the last units of the final 10-unit sequence.”
You can learn volumes from visiting his website and following his work, along with mine.
With that, and a great interview of Bob Prechter, dean of the Elliott wave crowd, you should be in position to take the money and run, as we have been doing on the way down. Here is an hour well-spent to put on your schedule:
Yes, it’s all setting up for a Nightmare on Wall St. But, like we say in Texas, “Bring it.”
There are cycles in everything when you learn to spot them – days, tides, moon going full or dark. Even in moods of friends. And especially in the duration and magnitude of market declines.
High Density Data Dump
Before we get to the specifics of the data dump, let’s me remind you to keep an eye on the CME Fed Watch Tool. Notice that virtually no one (except me) thinks the Fed will raise rates next week. Even today, no one.
I think there’s simply too much inflation in the system now for a hike to be avoided. GDP growth is too high and people have moved up spending plans because they fear “higher prices are coming” and that’s driving core inflation – like home prices – which will be along next Tuesday morning.
Now, let’s line ’em up. Starting with GDP:
Real gross domestic product (GDP) increased at an annual rate of 4.9 percent in the third quarter of 2023, according to the “advance” estimate. In the second quarter, real GDP increased 2.1 percent. The increase in the third quarter primarily reflected increases in consumer spending and inventory investment. Imports, which are a subtraction in the calculation of GDP, increased.
Next on to Durable Goods – a big jump:
International Trade follows:
New Unemployment filings:
With all this, the market which was lower will show up what’s ahead as the morning wears on…
The Overnight Wires
Boil and Bubble, Cauldron of Trouble: Armageddon: Plan to evacuate 600,000 Americans from the Middle East – US deploys 12 new aircraft systems and F-16 squadron – France sent FS Tonnerre.
Dear New York: This is only a taste of open-border problems Texas suffers – we can send millions more to Gotham! Passing Out Tents Is Adams’s Possible Next Step in New York Migrant Crisis – WSJ. Don’t get me wrong, I like liberals. It’s just they can’t seem to connect causes with effects. Pobrecitos!
Back to Playing House in the District of Derision. Live updates: Rep. Mike Johnson of Louisiana elected speaker of the House (cnn.com)
Grandstanding congressman has been charged say reports: Jamaal Bowman CHARGED for pulling fire alarm: New York Democrat facing prosecution for stunt during votes to avoid government shutdown. He tried to bullshit his way out of it, but no, being Black doesn’t excuse it. Typical leftist tactics, though.
Shop till you drop because of little risk of cops: Retail theft is the worst in these 10 US cities, study finds | The Hill
Maybe we could call it Anti-Coke? Brazil Scientists Developing New ‘Vaccine’ For Cocaine Addiction | Barron’s (barrons.com)
Acapulco is now Messapulco: Mexico assessing Hurricane Otis devastation as Acapulco reels.
ATR: Confounded Phones!
I came face to face this week with one of the “vipers of complexity” that are coming for us all.
You see, as security-aware seniors, we take data security seriously. We have two satellite onramps to the web (ViaSat and Starlink) along with terrestrial HDSL lines, for example. We take “getting our reports out” on time very seriously.
But when both of our voice grade circuits (Century Late now Bite Speed) this week, I found myself unable to log in to my trading platform. See, we’re so far out of things that we don’t have cell phone coverage out here.
With no way to get that two-factor “secret code” I could not access money in banks and couldn’t log in to trading platforms.
Now, see how we could ALL be held as Economic Hostages should “baddies” want to mess with two-factor? Or the Gubmint?
When the crap hits the fan (next week will only be a warm-up – it’s what’s after s minor (ii) of (1) of the larger 3 that worries me – could gateways be attacked in such a manner we have a massive destruction of savings?
Something I hadn’t thought much about, but yes, there it was. No access to my bank for a day.
The good news was? We didn’t have the five-day outage we had last time. And BrightSpeed tech support is issuing us an outage credit for 6 days, so OK on that score. Oh, and the internet still worked… it was a voice-mux card – same as last month’s much longer outage. Which accompanied this week’s 3-hour power outage.
Being at the “end of the string” is a great prepping motivator. And maybe this is Universe prompting us to consider more closely what happens when phones go down.
The Ure Solution to all this? Require that any company imposing these two-factor security systems allow the user to set up a minimum of three different phone numbers to call (or text) for the secret numbers to verify.
Shouldn’t be that hard, but with no money on the table (this is all development and expenses) I doubt the greedy banksters will step up.
Besides, since “the rules” changed, whatever you have in a bank is not your money. It’s theirs. You are only a creditor. At least with our Treasury Direct Account we know where the problem is – D.C. as always.
Really seems to always come down to wondering who to trust more: The Greedy Bankster Pricks or the Greedy Bureaucrats.
I won’t even attempt to answer that one in less than a book-length treatise.
Breakfast and then a day of collapse spotting. Our OEB (Oct. Ends Badly) is materializing before our eyes.
Write when you get rich, especially through next week.