In a word, maybe. But maybe not. Takes a bit of explaining. Follow along here because this is like “financial detective work.”
To begin with, the Big Picture as of the 5 AM-ish Futures pricing was running to the upside. The reason is that in our Aggregate Index work – as we showed Thursday – we still needed to fill that “ghost column” for the 3 (1) (v) down. Today, we are looking at bottom of range, lower right here:
As you can see, we did hit – but it was a bare squeaker at best.
Is there another alternative? Why, sure! (Isn’t there always?)
There is a chance of a good rally today – maybe even carrying into Monday (depending on Gaza and other) – and then a subdivision into the end of next week. A possible outcome there would be a serious selloff (-500 kind of Dow thing) and panic in the techs which are in-process of sobering up from the A.I. highs.
Then, we could get a rally for a month – and maybe to year-end. That will, of course, depend on current world events.
I know. You’re asking, “Stop writing Ure, and just get to the point, when is World War 3 – the nukes going off – likely to happen???”
PK, but this may get weird…
The “Andy Case”
We need to begin with a little history and timing. Often – just as a thinking exercise – you can toss a dart and GUESS that waves 1, 3, and 5 down will be of similar length. It’s a maybe, kinda, sorta.
My DSP PhD friend Jas reminds me chasing time is a fool’s errand. He loaded up on Jan 2025 puts on techs (among others) and is relaxing as the world implodes. Still, timing is everything if you’re an ADHD day trader like…er…guess who…
Look again at our Moving Average Trend Line Crossings, because if you can’t see the Elliott five waves down in this one, see an eye doctor.
The problem is? We reckon the odds of (v) breaking lower at 50 percent plus. Which opens the possibility (because it’s not uncommon) that (v) could be 1.5 times the decline of (i). Which is how we get into circuit breaker country next week POSSIBLY.
See the CME Fed Watch Tool today? Again, NO ONE is showing any chance of a quarter point hike, which I fear MAY be in the cards.
A couple of things could drive that. Imagine ahead (surmagine) that the market rally comes now, but we only go back to the declining trend line (or slightly above) (Mondayish) and then we collapse on a Big Inflation number implied in the Housing Data from Case Shiller due Tuesday, ahead of the Fed announcement in a week.
The Fed gets pressured by rising interest rates and soaring home prices – in their all items less food and energy view of things – and we get a “surprise” small rate hike. By Thursday of next week, the damage is mostly done, the indexes are down and THEN we get the real bottom of 3 (1) (v). With me?
“What does Andy have to do with any of this?”
If you do a lot of work in “The Realms” (and listen to the Dude) he will often lay out ideas that don’t make sense at first, but will – in the fullness of time – expand to explain things with utterly amazing clarity.
For now, all you need to know is that Andy is a prescient person. He recently shared a WW3 Start Date vision for late July of next year. In the Comments section. I know this will sound (superficially) nutty, but let’s look at how such a thing might happen.
Step back and look at the market decline from the all-time high Nov. 8, 2021. That was followed by the significant low on 10/12/2022. Took a total of 338 days to evolve.
This was followed by the market rally – which went from October of 2022 to 8/31/2023. That was 292 days of rally. We also make note that the wave duration for the rally was 86.39 percent of previous. If this is a kind of “variable coefficient of human change-state recognition, then the Wave 3 bottom could come as early as 252 days (or even sooner, depending on events). 8 months and 9 days after this is April 8th, 2024. There are 115 days from that point to August.
Toss in a little “English” to account for this “recognition coefficient” being nonlinear, and we can easily see how nearly a potential top of Macro 4 could jump right into a classical ‘fifth wave failure’ and that’s where WW 3 gets horribly real.
Of course, for now, things in the Middle East are on a slow simmer. We happen to know that the U.S. is moving support forces that have never-before been moved (in the Six Days War) or any of the other conflicts.
But right now, Andy’s conversations with “the Dude” and quiet moments of contemplation, seem to have come up with a very realistic potential wave count for the Largest Degree.
Doesn’t mean Hamas and Hezbollah embeds already in America won’t be activated, but it means there is a possible window next year where we are nearing the top of a fourth wave and then the fifth wave fails in a flash.
Now, turning to other news…
The Gubmint says we’re rich, but why aren’t we? Today’s financial fairytale (boys and girls) involves (alleged) personal incomes and expenses. Perhaps we should call it American Overspending Debt Festival 2.0?
Personal income increased $77.8 billion (0.3 percent at a monthly rate) in September. Disposable personal income (DPI)—personal income less personal current taxes— increased $56.1 billion (0.3 percent). Personal outlays—the sum of personal consumption expenditures (PCE), personal interest payments, and personal current transfer payments—increased $175.1 billion (0.9 percent) and consumer spending increased $138.7 billion (0.7 percent). Personal saving was $687.7 billion and the personal saving rate—personal saving as a percentage of disposable personal income—was 3.4 percent in September.
Now think back: Didn’t someone (here!) tell you when inflation comes along it goes into self-reinforcing mode if you’re not careful? And was the Fed careful? Um…what do you think?
The good news for stocks is people are still pending. Rally fuel or fools, stand by for the answer.
Sorry, we take these numbers with a shot of scotch and a ‘lude. Because it’s nowhere near real in our circle of friends. (Oh, wait, we don’t have any…)
Tearing Down the Wires
Manhunt continues for the mass murder suspect from Maine: Maine residents on lockdown. Police search for Robert Card | Fortune.
War #1 Check (Ukraine): Russia is executing soldiers who refuse to follow orders: White House. Body count horror continues as UKR reports Russian military death toll in Ukraine rises to about 297,680. Global war as a form of population control, anyone?
War #2 Check (Gaza, Points east): US fighter jets strike Syria weapons facility amid concerns Israel-Hamas conflict may spread. Closer to the Hamas lands IDF Conducts Second Ground Raid In Gaza. And payday! Israel releases new video: IDF, Shin Bet kill Hamas Commander Madhath Mubashar in Gaza; IDF drone falls in Gaza.
War #3 (in training): US military says Chinese fighter jet came within 10 feet of B-52 bomber. Meanwhile, people on the US supply chain outpost island of Formosa are playing “spot the aircraft carrier”. Oh look! China’s Shandong aircraft carrier spotted south of Taiwan.
Let’s see what Teslas, PowerWalls, making bot-spinners pay for manipulating public opinion on X-Twitter, and, oh yeah, keeping Starlink up for Ukraine will earn you? Scorn from CNN, of course! Elon Musk’s Twitter takeover, the platform and its cultural impact have fundamentally changed | CNN Business. Seems a little “dog in the manger like to us…with maybe a dash of “trading on his name” which we suspise, too.
See the bash. See the bash go viral: Twitter/X under Elon Musk: A year in review | Mashable/ And rebashed: Elon Musk bought Twitter one year ago. Here’s everything he broke there. (slate.com). And re-re-bashed One Year After Musk Twitter Acquisition: X Users, Ad Revenue Decline (variety.com). And re-re-re-bashed Year Of Musk: X Faces Slashed Valuation And Fewer Advertisers One Year After Twitter Takeover (forbes.com).
Before you “buy the bash” though consider a) Musk may be smarter than you and b) Musk may be smarter than most people. And c) he may be building a convergence of crypto with non-bank transaction clearing: Elon Musk predicts X will replace banks in 2024 – The Verge.
Our next personality profile of a liberal (bundling and bungling for liberals) is SBF In His Recent Testimony Says He Believed Taking FTX Customer Funds for Alameda “Was Legal”. Right – and I’m the Pope. Never heard the concept of segregated customer funds??? Hello??? Anyone home?
And one for the right: US right-wing radio host Larry Elder ends 2024 Republican presidential bid | Reuters, Damn! I’m sorry to see him drop out. He did put his support over to Donald Trump which will make the splintered Grand Old Party even crazier than before. (Wait! Is that even possible?)
Around the Ranch: Cold Weather Ahead
As you may have guessed by now, our Fall Dirt Garden out here was a complete and utter disaster. The whole garden was overrun with morning glories that came up all over the row crops. I’ll be opening a Donner Party Diet Center soon, since we qualify for a franchise now.
The lean-to greenhouse is doing dandy, though. A good number of bell peppers and we just had a decent bloom on the older tomato plant while the new ones haven’t flowered yet. I may “pump them” with some Maxi Bloom.
Reader Hank’s Hawaiian Peppers are 2-feet tall but showing no interest in flowering out yet. We’re patient. And the bok choi are doing well, along with the Detroit Dark Red Beets. Another clipping of the Swiss Chard will be along shortly, too.
But cold’s coming. Go look at our year-old Chinese Diesel Heater in the greenhouse. You still have time to set one up. Some time back, I told you I was going on a buying binge for inexpensive Chinese “parking heaters.” These are similar to the Webasto and Espar units that have kept truckers warm for decades. Thing is, these are about 1/1oth the price. In fact… https://urbansurvival.com/shoptalk-sunday-greenhouse-chinese-diesel-heater-install/
I will be upsizing the battery for this and rewiring the solar, but the heater is great and even cold as it was last winter, plants were held to almost 50F overnight…might have hit 45 one night.
I’ve come to the conclusion that a semi-sunken large greenhouse is in our future. We need to do some “sun survey” work to see what the best location will be, but if there’s a glowing future out there, semi-earth bermed greenhouses that minimize energy inputs are a topic of great interest. Send along links!
Off on a food run (pick up, never getting around people). Then Peoplenomics writing for next week and ShopTalk Sunday – where shop cleaning has been the focus this week.
Go have a wonderful day and remember: just three more workdays until Monday!
Write when you get rich,