Biden’s War Party seems to be doing its damnedest to usher in Global War in August. But first…
How About Jobs?
Dandy trading session. Although my expected rally into today’s close was muted. We expected a decline at the open. But from its session lows, the Dow rose from a session low of 33,771.47 to close at 33,922.26. YES! Our thinking was right – a 150-point rally from the bottom – but the ending was wrong.
Today, we might set things right if the federal jobs report comes in with something less interest rate fear-stoking.
The envelope, please?
“Total nonfarm payroll employment increased by 209,000 in June, and the unemployment rate changed little at 3.6 percent, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Employment continued to trend up in government, health care, social assistance, and construction.
Both the unemployment rate, at 3.6 percent, and the number of unemployed persons, at 6.0 million, changed little in June. The unemployment rate has ranged from 3.4 percent to 3.7 percent since March 2022.
Officially, the data table looks like this when you back-out the media hype and bluster.
Also keep in mind the CES Birth-Death Model usually estimates a lot of jobs into existence. But only 26,000 this month so yeah jobs did fine. Net working people still down vs. April, though. Remember that.
Even so, with the blow out ADP numbers, we’ll watch patiently as the market sorts out how far off we’ll be by the close this afternoon. Europe was rallying at press time.
War, or Something Like It
Five stories underscore our dire outlook for July 27th of this year.
- The Fed will announce its rate hike on July 26th. Day before. We see high risk of a half point hike. Which will push the financial world over the brink.
- Biden’s War Party has failed to join us into the Convention of Cluster Munitions – already signed by 100 countries. The U.S., Russia, and Ukraine are notable holdouts. With “war expansion” on the docket Ukraine live briefing: U.S. will supply Ukraine with cluster munitions; Zelensky to meet Erdogan in Turkey.
- Even when a) rates go up and b) the “cluster munitions tripwire” goes off in the Kremlin, the radical socialists in the District of Corruption have a back-up plan. U.N. To Seize Global ‘Emergency’ Powers With Biden’s Support (thefederalist.com). Of course, any such an illegal seizure were to occur, it would be in clear violation of the Constitution. Think Global Junta. All they need is an excuse. Not that we’re not already there. This would just “formalize” things. Cluster here, nuke there, cut off some of the web? Presto! Global Emergency. Lockdowns 2.0.
- Free speech is already on the ropes thanks to Buyed ‘Em: Judge Bars Biden Admin From Colluding With Big Tech Censors.
- But even so, the sell-out (corporate) American media keeps reporting on war among the censors. Twitter sends Meta cease-and-desist letter over new Threads app: Sources. Back-up plans which are – in our view – Lessons of Covid Lies II. Make the “illegal official” and you own crooked federal “law” enforcement, why what could go wrong?
We will remind you once again why July 27th is a key date to watch. The Ninth of Av – Tisha B’Av – Holocaust Remembrance Association. It’s a horrific date in history. Almost like April 20th is another “hot date.” (You know who’s birthday.)
We line up all these data points for a reason. “Seeing” the future is a rare thing. “Planning” for a range of possibilities is much easier. July 27 is like pointing at a road sign. “Future ought to be right where that sign up ahead is…”
Taken as a series of data points – marking the path of likely future – more like snow poles in deep powder if you’ve ever been remote in winter — we could see World War III getting off to a slow start. There is a case for China to just let the foreign demons fight among themselves, for a while. Less work for the Han.
Alternative logical frameworks abound. In the corporate world some are like “Decision Support Departments.” Such as astrologer Jessica Adams outlook China in the Tarot to 2026. Nostradamus scholar G.A. Stewart has a different take on W3 in “Just In Time Generals and World War III.” We remain constantly watching because of Nostradamus July warning, though the year is less precise. A news FLASH ought to mark it.
The Investor’s Paradox
Naturally, since we already “know” (in the financial modeling sense) that Markets could be halved or MORE by October-November? We consider the ethics of investing. And will financial commitments all be honored?
Once upon a time, if Universe sent clues of a major Flood to come, you’d build an Ark. Today, there are options, indexes, ETFs, and equities built out for everything.
Noah is a fine example of ethical investing. Seeing the clouds, and being on the distro list, he built an Ark. Today, rather than building an Ark, Noah might buy into the Water ETF, perhaps. Equity position in a rainwear maker, of course. Commodity positions six-months ahead because crops will take time to recover? Sure…
All too theoretical for you? The Great Depression wasn’t a rain event. It was a radio event. Radio Trust – and high techs of the era – had become terribly overbuilt. It was as stupid as, well, Bitcoin and crypto are today. Except for faster clearing and EMP resistant as paper is.
Will it be that our own “high tech” has feet of clay? Could the next step up from cluster munitions be isolation of whole countries in a cable-cutter’s war? Almost certainly, in our view.
Between rain, radio, and the web, history hints at an aligning of fears.
Back to point:
The Great Gray Matter Meander (GGMM) is:
- If you go short the Fed into the July Hike…
- And there’s a 1/2 percent hike, and…
- The Bidenistas need a scapegoat, and…
- You thought (or knew) Putin has a red line at cluster bombs, and…
- Then the market falls massively on the Fed hike…the next day 9 Av…
- Would you short the market? AND/OR
- The Flash! comes seconds later. And you, already having made the gain, go to the Afterlife with a short term tax liability, never enjoying a dime…
- (How many of us “tax fugitives” are there in the Afterlife, by the way? Is there an accounting requirement at the Pearly Gates? IRS is expanding, you know…)
Remember, markets were disrupted by 9/11. So, why not again? And if the Internet is attacked (or we go Grid Hard Down), how would you move, let alone spend all those gains?
The investor’s paradox. Right and rich? Go for broke? Go for safe? Our preference is for boats over rainwear and ETFs.
Back on the War Path
It’s really going to depend which side you want to believe about the war lead-in: Russian fighter pilots harass U.S. military drones in Syria for second straight day, Pentagon says. But, it you follow the Russian narrative: Zakharova denounces ‘earthquake’: Weapons for Ukraine end up in ‘armies’ of protesters inside Europe.
How about some of these as Maraschinos on the News Wire:
Janet went for Chinese food. Now she’s bowing: US not seeking ‘winner-take-all’ competition with China, US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen says. Bow over? Yellen criticises Chinese curbs against US firms.
Filed under Buses Bashed: Double-decker bus and city bus collide in Manhattan, sending 18 people to hospitals. (Our well-informed sources report they all got off at the same stop....ahem...)
Speak loudly and get the big stick: Republican Marjorie Taylor Greene removed from US House Freedom Caucus.
ATR: Friday Planner
If there was any rain in our area, it missed us completely. The gates of hell have been left open, by the feel of it. Is it September yet? On averages, the year is still better than 2022.
Sunspot Cycle is Kicking Up a bit:
Bad news for “mini-Maunder” advocates, ammo for warming, good for farming if you add enough water. But no snow in Texas this month…there goes the ski season.
The simple cook: Made his rum-soaked chicken breasts last night. Soak 2 breasts overnight in a couple of shots of spiced rum. Sauté in butter and garlic until just done, remove. Pour in 3/4 cup of heavy cream, a nearly equal amount of parmesan, and two more shots. Bring to soft boil and reduce to preference. Drop the chicken back in. Let ’em get acquainted for a few minutes. Serve, top with parm and brown under broiler it you’re trying to impress. (Otherwise, just get your chew on…)
Coming Articles: Charts, as always, on the Peoplenomics report Saturday. The electronics bench rethink is ShopTalk Sunday‘s focus. Yesterday’s column is here if you missed it.
Have a great weekend and write when you get rich,