Dam: Fake News…or Prescience? Housing

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Since our “market darts” have already told us where things should go when markets open today (down until around lunch-time, then a strong rally into Friday…but this is just the darts, lol) we can sit back, watch the dough pile up and try to sort out the question of how social media is used to create “fake news” – Or, is it?

My consigliere called last night to give me his take on things.  He’s been tracking the high-noise levels on social media and suggested it would make an interesting case study.  So, here goes…

There is a dam in California, up river from Oroville and there was a “close encounter” with disaster there in 2017.  The dam, some argue, came close to failing.  Since then repairs have been in the works.

Fast forward to a couple of days ago:  Some sharp-eyed people on the Internet noted that a late-season storm was headed into that part of the Sierra’s this weekend and that MIGHT put the dam above its limited.

The idea is that the dam is very close to its peak depth (900-feet) and if there’s appreciable rainfall in the area (and early excited reports on the web mentioned as much as 7-inches was possible) then the dam could be in real trouble.

Oh, should mention my consigliere is a bit suspicious that the dam’s main gates haven’t been opened a bit… but you know how attorneys are  – suspicious!

Well, except he’s maybe onto something.  For one of the oldest saying in newsrooms across America is “When the government says “Don’t worry”  what should you really be doing?  Worrying.  At least a bit, anyway.

So I went “headline sniffing” this morning to see who’s saying what.  And here comes the flood of “No problems…move along…”

Take for example, The Merc is rolling with “Oroville Dam Spillway Concerns?  DWR says No…”

Then there’s also “Fact check: KCRA investigates Oroville Dam rumors” and “Water Officials Quell Rumors Of Oroville Dam Spillway Problems.”

Just a case of “nervous Nellies of the Net?”  Maybe, maybe not.

If you check out GodLikeProductions.com (a useful site when gathering futuring words, BTW) you will find a discussion thread that going to the idea that “California’s Lake Oroville Main Spillway Severely Damaged/Eroded. Oroville Dam’s Recently Reconstructed Main Spillway Fundamentally Flawed.”

We also heard (just rumor, mind you) that an accomplished remote viewer saw a dam problem prior to the 2017 event, but the remote viewing didn’t match-up with the actual view of the dam in 2017.  Seems the viewer didn’t see any power lines running over the emergency spillway area which were there in 2017.

What makes it interesting (*we get to the prescience part of the discussion here), is that those powerlines are not there now.  They were rerouted following the 2017 near-miss.

Normally, we don’t try to sort real news from fake news from human prescience>  But since I’ve had a number of personal encounters with this “prior knowing” stuff, I’m not as skeptical as I once was.

You can find the Accuweather forecast for Oroville here, and remember there may be a lot more rain in the mountains behind the dam.  Should just be starting to rain out there right now.

Just remember – before getting to whipped-up and worried – that the RV’er could still be right at some point in the future – just not this weekend..  And, if you want to read all of the documents related to the dam, prepared to be disappointed since some may now be “classified” due to “national security” concerns.

Gotta keep us all safe, right?

Housing Data’s Out

Looks like this:

Building Permits 

Privatelyowned housing units authorized by building permits in April were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1,296,000.   This is 0.6 percent (±2.6 percent)* above the revised March rate of 1,288,000, but is 5.0 percent (±1.4 percent) below the April  2018 rate of 1,364,000.  Single?family authorizations in April were at a rate of 782,000; this is 4.2 percent (±1.2 percent) below  the revised March figure of 816,000.  Authorizations of units in buildings with five units or more were at a rate of 467,000 in  April.

Housing Starts Privately-owned housing starts in April were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1,235,000.  This is 5.7 percent (±13.0  percent)* above the revised March estimate of 1,168,000, but is 2.5 percent (±10.4 percent)* below the April 2018 rate of  1,267,000.  Single?family housing starts in April were at a rate of 854,000; this is 6.2 percent (±13.7 percent)* above the revised  March figure of 804,000. The April rate for units in buildings with five units or more was 359,000.

Housing Completions  Privately?owned housing completions in April were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1,312,000.  This is 1.4 percent (±15.5  percent)* below the revised March estimate of 1,331,000, but is 5.5 percent (±11.9 percent)* above the April 2018 rate of  1,244,000.  Single?family housing completions in April were at a rate of 918,000; this is 4.1 percent (±13.4 percent)* below the  revised March rate of 957,000. The April rate for units in buildings with five units or more was 381,000.

Next big economic news item is the Philly Fed Business Outlook just released:  Modest growt5h continuing…

Tomorrow, look for a couple of minor reports.  More than anything, though, tomorrow is options expiration.  In our Aggregated Markets view, the market is 2.568% lower this month than it was on the last options expiration in April.  Sell in May and go away?

We wouldn’t be surprised if we don’t get a bit of a rally in here but the headwinds on things like trade continue to confound.  Dow futures after the release are up 100 but that’s the starting gate mark…

Here in the Worker’s Paradise

A Majority of Russians Have No Savings, Poll Says .  Better here?  Well, USA Today reported last fall the median American household has $4,830 saved…  The average is higher, but median is the half-above, half-below line…

Cyber Security Note

Since I’ve had my consulting hat on in the cyber-insurance arena for a while now, this (trust me) is a biggie: Trump declares national emergency over IT threats.

Interleaving: China’s Huawei, 70 Affiliates Blacklisted By US Commerce Department.  So to retaliate, China formally arrests 2 Canadians in case linked to Huawei.

But from a NATO ally: Dutch spy agency investigating alleged Huawei ‘backdoor’: Volkskrant .  But then there’s the socialist/apologists of France where Macron says it is not France’s aim to block Huawei.

Tripping Through the Headlines

Gas prices may continue higher than we’d like as Brent oil hovers around $72 on Middle East tensions .

Our “daily economic distortion story?” Steve Mnuchin’s dad pays record $91M for stainless-steel ‘Rabbit’ sculpture by Jeff Koons.  (filed under funny bunny money).

Meantime, Flopsy, Mopsy and BTC’s have drooped to the $7,850 area. They’re expected to hop back, of course.

Will change come to the “98th Circus Court of Appeals?” Senate confirms Trump pick to 9th Circuit — but Dems Feinstein, Harris oppose fellow Californian…which is what obstructers do, I guess.

Given a chance, equality shows up?  Not so fast:  While  The Fortune 500 Has More Female CEOs Than Ever Before.  Still, just 33 out of 500.  6.6%.

Auto Safety Pointer: Rhode Island cop pulls over self-driving car.  We can’t make this stuff up…

And in the NY Times biz section:  if you’re thinking about Retiring: Why Working Till Whenever Is a Risky Retirement Strategy.

“Prescience” & Submarines

I don’t post everything immediately when it happens…but this “prescience topic” does deserve a further explanation.  Since a dream (Sunday morning last weekend) I have been looking for two submarines to appear in the news.  One of them showed up this morning in the story German submarine inspected for damage after mishap in Norway.

And here’s an odd press release for you: Submarine Market is Anticipated to Reach at a CAGR of 4.86% By 2024.

The account (woo-woo column this Saturday) is one of those long, rambling, oneironaut dreams of mine.  But, just so you know what’s coming, the part about “fake/low freeboard” submarines is interesting as hell… Been walking around with “submarines”  since Sunday with this image of a fake sub in my head wondering what the hell “fake sub” means:

One had an aspect of “here” and one had an aspect of “there.”  You go ponder that…while I go wolf down some chow.

\Moron the morrow\

36 thoughts on “Dam: Fake News…or Prescience? Housing”

  1. With the Orville dam, I read a report out of CA that the homeless are digging into the levees to camp and causing these levees to become damaged and the possibility of failing during heavy rains.

  2. I’m not surprised at low savings rate. When I was growing up in the 50’s and 60’s, we lived paycheck to paycheck because my dad didn’t earn more than covering necessities for the three of us. Sometimes people can’t save money.

  3. Out of curiosity does Building Permits, Starts and Completions of private homes include those built by smaller real estate developers but not sold to any individuals yet? They’ve built homes around our area but the sales to families are going pretty darn slow.

    Regarding all the “dam” problems out there, Louisiana would be a good place to look with all the flood waters currently in place and also headed their way. A family member lives there and wrote this:

    “…there should be a wall of water come down the Amite that could do some damage. Also they are opening the Spillway on the Mississippi again for the second time this year – has never been done before in its 125 year history. ”

    “… What they are talking about here seems to be only about the recent rains in the Northern part of the Miss. water shed !! What we have down here is really unusual, because the water has been above flood stage ever since late Jan. !!!”

    “We normally don’t begin to get to flood stage until the Spring thaw, which come in about the last of May and first part of June for all that water to trickle down here !! With all the rain connected to the Spring thaw all bets are that WE ARE GOING TO CATCH HELL in about a month !!!”

    “The gates are open at the maximum in both the spill way and the Atchafalaya !!! There are 27 gates at the spillway and only 4-5 have ever been open at any time, MAINLY BECAUSE they can’t open the other ones – they are stuck and when it is dry the Corp of Engineers doesn’t to even try and fix them. They may be sorry they didn’t this year.”

    “Maybe this Spring thaw will do what Katarina failed to do 11 years ago !! CLEAN OUT NEW ORLEANS FOR GOOD !!!”

    • Spillway gates can be blasted open quickly if Corps of Engineers decides to. Closing them is another matter.

      • I guess I can’t use the term my family member applies to other indigenous Cajuns around there but I’m sure there’s a few that have the necessary means to apply the force needed should it become necessary. Adds a whole ‘nuther level of meaning to the phrase “Chute ‘im!”, though.

    • Lol lol I think its brilliant that people sell land for homes and cities so far below sea level that there’s always the fear that they will have to pull the scuba gear out to go to work..
      It’s like a relative to my ex.. dirt poor had a snake infested hog farm in the middle of a swamp.
      Dirt poor.. met and married a senators daughter…
      He died a multi multi multi millionaire.( I heard he was in the billionaire club but he never told me that.. would fly in on his private plane to visit). the senator helped him sell it by guiding investors to purchase that swamp land..its all a business model..

  4. George

    Did you see this:

    “BOMBSHELL: Bayer discovers “black ops” division run by Monsanto, shuts it down, initiates internal investigation as law enforcement prepares criminal charges against the chemical giant”

    Check it out at http://www.naturalnews.com/

    Now the corporations have black ops hit squads, but I guess that’s old news.

    • Yep and I see Trump just pardoned Conrad Black who had been hung out on a fraud conviction, and they still dream on that he will investigated the Clinton’s and their multi million dollar scam.To bad people fail to understand that these clowns the 1% are simply mob families controlling the country with the old mentality of you cover my arse and I’ll cover yours.!!

  5. Since your last sentence says your hungry…maybe the progression of thought is that the fake sub has to do with the possibility of wolfing down a submarine sandwich…made of fake meat by products.

  7. George – with Oreville and Submarines on the mind, best to not lose sight of your coming weather this weekend for Texas.
    For my amusement purposes only .. how long will it take G to get it up – the weekend report (s).
    Back up power – check
    Back up dial up internet – rut row
    Mal adjusting septic – check.
    Nothing like a real world stress test to proof the system.
    *with solar wind streams/storms buffeting the planet this weekend – even the Ham’s will be in the soup..what fun.

    C’mon – Bitcoins do not go up or down in price – the Federal Reserve Note/Digi – Dollar vacillates in value on its inevitable journey to 0 – it is the law of FIAT. And although I know Unstoppable DeCentralization is making Bitcoin the ultimate store of value in the future, today the amount of FRN’s someone will give me for my BTC’s has me selling some to raise FRN’s.

    Gotta have FRN’s to pay bills,creditors as long as Banking System is Up and Running.

    BTC are approaching the 38% Fibonacci Retracement Level at $9600.00.

    Historic Gold chart shows text book example of what happens when assets approach and hit the 38% Retracement Line. Gold is still in a long term bear from when hit that line.
    And zo we sell some BTC – yeah profits, and watch the price action around $9600.00 this weekend – if BTC breaks above $9600 – will B backing up a Waste Hauler Dump Truck – to haul away more digital tulips!
    Not interested in a really cool store of value, how about THE transaction coin that is still under a 100 FRN’s per coin..”Lite Coin is the right coin”. or just buy the S&P 500 index, sit back and wait as you become a Count De Monay!

    • Went to my local Walmart today, shelves are emptying fast people. Didn’t check out the food or the clothing per say, but everything else is emptying out fast. I was shocked, staff running around doing inventory also. I thought I would pass on the information, this is my opinion only. Anyone else observe this in there area?

  8. If a woman yells I’m pregnant the police must immediately release her even if the woman is lying 99 times out of 100. The potential life of the possible potentially unaborted baby is sacred to all. The officer needs to man up. This lady seemed completely incompetetent as she tried to tase him over and over again with minimal effect. The Taser is non lethal. If he is a real man he can take a few shocks. It is unlikely had she sucessfully tased him that she would have then taken his gun and shot him. It is the officer’s responsibility to properly assess the situation while he is being tased during the fight. He is aprofessional after all.

    • A view of someone who’s never been tased (or maced) by the sound of it.

      Also a view not based on the available data. For example, a 2017 report (well-sourced) that tasers have directly (or consequentially_) killed more than 1,000 people since 2010: https://www.pbs.org/newshour/show/police-killed-1000-people-tasers-since-2000

      We prefer police consider an outright ban on taser use on persons over 50 because of the triggering effects on larger cardiovascular problem.

      Moreover, it was reported in 2009 that even a healthy 17 YO can be dri8ven into a-fib with a taser (https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/20016356).

      Please don’t make factually incorrect assertions about the lethality of electrical devices on a site read by radio hobbyists, engineers, and generally smart people.

      Taser can have have killed. The critical metric is “dart-to-heart” distance (Kunz, et al, 2018 in Forensic Science.Medical Pathology https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/29956100).

      Electricity following a general inverse square law (varying by conduction factors like electrolytes) and it’s clear than even small currents (less than 5 ma) can kill under the wrong conditions.

      In my view, repeated shocks with a taser amplify the risks for whoever is on the receiving end. A second shock (and third and…) transitions to lethal force and the effect is stunning if, like I said, you’ve never been tase’d or maced. “manning up” is bullshit when you’re in mid-convulsion. Go with me on this.

      • Yeah Tazers are no joke. I had my son use one on me. Just to try it. Lol bought one of those 2 million volt tazers from Ebay. It kicked my ass and put me on the kitchen floor. Ha ha ha. When i got up i grabbed it and said my turn. He ran out the front door. Dat was back just before i took the .45 cal to the hand, to jog your memory.

      • Tasers are no joke.. LOL LOL Andie.. OTFLMAO…. I know someone that bought one for his wife… LOL LOL He was watching the football game on tv.. LOL LOL LOL LOL…in his shorts.. LOL LOL LOL LOL LOL.. big guy.. strong.. musclular.. LOL LOL LOL LOL… he said he was curious.. how could something with a couple of double a batteries do anything.. so he put it to his thigh and pulled the trigger………… LOL LOL LOL
        said he heard the screams and they were his.. and he was on the floor out of the chair… LOL LOL LOL LOL….when we were kids.. I use to take the disposable camera and re wire it so when you took a flash picture you’d get zapped.. it was a great joke.. LOL LOL…..people never did figure out how I did it.. ( the camera’s are snap together.. a little glue.. but like a rechargeable battery.. you can take them apart if your careful.. go into the dark room.. find the spots.. take the filmout.. then bring the camera into the light.. rewire)

      • back in those days.. I never once considered the potential lethal affects of pulling a prank like that..

  9. For those who choose NOT to place their heads in the sand (or other dark places) about the China cyber threat, I’d advise taking a look-see at the U.S. CERT’s China advisories:

    https://www.us-cert.gov/china

    Mainly IT providers and manages services are the focus of the advisories, but it’s good for we minions to understand the proxy battles being waged every nanosecond between China, our web providers and the U.S. powers that be.

    If one accesses the February 2019: Chinese Cyber Activity Webinar Slide Deck (link provided via the web address above), one will see that cyber is viewed as the number one threat to U.S. national security (slide 13). Some of the more recent threats are briefly reviewed in the slide deck.

    If/when a major armed conflict is initiated, it will begin with pervasive and pernicious cyber effects on critical national infrastructures and defense or defense supporting networks. You can put money on it.

    • The question that always begs to be answered is who’s going to start the/a major conflict,now we have used that type of activity on both Iran,Venezuela and without a doubt others who have earned our dis-pleasure in one form or the other,now one would wonder just what our reaction would be if Venezuela hit the grid running up thru Tenn.,Ohio putting most of New England in the dark for a few days or a week or two,just something to think about that an action always creates a counter action.!!

    • Exactly WH… they build it..the servers the chips everything I am positive that they have total control….hey I forgot..I read a report a few years ago to show just how much control they had.. that they turned on all the cameras connected to the internet..the baby monitors the cell phone the security cams everything…
      As for remote viewers seeing dam problems… lol you do not have to be a remote viewer to see our infrastructure sucks on every level.. let me see I just had a vision.. the aquifer pipeline to New York city and Las Vegas collapses leaving millions without water..oh my
      There’s a nuclear power plant going to be seven damaged because of earth trimmers..
      Phew to many for me to list. The major problem is we are so busy blowing up other cou tries spending trillions so some plaid wearing gold tooth idiot can get more.. we have let our infrastructure sit on hold until those that want more have enough..clue..there’s never enough more..
      As for savings ..very few I know have any savings at all..everyone is living paycheck to paycheck.. the fact that one in three has to seek out federal programs says that

      • Agreed; all of it is a planned takedown of America, from lowering the wages, or keeping the wages low, or bringing in low wage workers to bringing in other nationalities to take the better paying jobs, plus the purposeful not keeping up our infrastructure, keeping our borders wide open, too many situations to type of all the planned and purposeful things that have been done to take down America. NAFTA, and other trade agreements, UN cooperation and participation, our own inept government bought off to sit up there and do nothing, the media, really, it is ALL encompassing, including all of the WARS costing TRILLIONS (thanks Bushie #2, you lied, it cost TRILLIONS). Our BILLIONS of dollars a year GIVE AWAYS to our bestie friends so they can live a per capita lifestyle that we can only ENVY. Yes, I have also seen the scoop on the DAM; sounds like they want to take out the VEGETABLE and FRUIT BASKET of the USA. You saw the BIG REVEAL today of their fancy Take Out THE GRID weapons right down to individual vehicles???? So, what’s a person to do? PREP like it’s 1854!!!!

  10. Your fake sub could be a semi-submersible narco sub used to smuggle cocaine into the US. Maybe with tensions ramping up with Iran, a drug gang sold one and something more nefarious is on the way.

  11. To-day was a rather very big “Falun-about-something” demonstration on 42nd street in my town (from river to river practically), nevertheless. What a coincidence to agitate people againt the Rep. of C. at a time like when we need more problems?!

    OTH, George mentioned a few days ago about cheap TV UHF 4K with free deivery @ 300 bukeroos. Where can I get such (link pls. ;-)) since I’m w/o TV for the last year. Since my wife of more than 50 years died 5 years ago I do miss occasional companionship.

  12. re Fake Sub; me clueless. But then I saw your sketch (thank you), picture worth 1k . it’s a sub-decoy, then think tactical in current east east flash point & take it from there. ‘freeboard’ is as to ‘cardboard’ ? … btw, is cardboard stealth to radar? (i don’t know but) … how spooky if it were to sneak up on you at night, even if it’s a decoy, might just make you to shoot it. it smells like a ‘FF’ ala civil war initiation, like the spark in the powder cake. 2nd. take, would like a fake iranian/chinesse/russian sub surface, like in the oroville dam and blow it up? … phhf noo.

  13. Fake Subs: My typology…

    Type 1: Rubber Duck type blow up (frame-less, larger than those used in previous wars. See example deception operations in WW II, et. sub. etc).

    Type 2: Interior frame covered with rubberized material mounted on small boat or barge. (See recent Iranian video which replicated US Carrier which they blew up revealing the barge underneath the scaffolding).

    Type 3: Semi-submersible mini-subs. Not really fake, just not national military sponsored. May be used for specialty functions ranging from tourist trips (e.g. Honolulu or Caribbean Islands), scientific observation, or illegal operations (see recent US Coast Guard seizure reports).

    Type 4: National military sponsored specialty systems. ‘nuf said.

    Type 5: Other categories which do not fit the first 4 Types, (Always keep an open category and mind.)

  14. Hmmm…

    Our current enhanced presence in the ME was spurred by CIA sat-cam surveillance which showed members of the Republican Guard installing surface-to-surface missiles (which could obviously be used as ship-killers) into 2-man “skiffs,” which shortly after loading, “disappeared.” State, Defense, and our spook services are all in a very quiet panic, over both what Iran is doing, and what they might do, especially in the vicinity of the Strait of Hormuz.

    I wonder if it’s possible, George, that the fake part isn’t your subs, but is our spooks’ belief that the Iranians were loading open boats…?

  15. The prospects for retirement are not looking good for a lot of us, and the game is really stacked against us. Big picture; our currency is fake, our country is broke and riddled with rackets, the stock market is near catastrophic failure, the weather has gone wacky, and global pandemics are waiting in the wings (read about candida auris as well as ebola). I managed to move to a rural area far from nuclear zones that has the farmland to support the sparse population out here, but it may not be enough…

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