For the Conspiracy-Minded

We  hold to the simplistic idea that markets are honest as much as the next guy.

But, when you look at the market action of Thursday and what’s on tap for tyhis morning, you just shake your head, sometimes.

Here’s the “logical choicing” problem in a nutshell.

Case 1:  The markets are honest and the difference in performance between  yesterday and today is purely driven by crowd psychology and news flow, plus events overnight in foreign markets.

Case 2: Professionals actually do manipulate the markets by driving up the price of index options (like the S&P and Russell) which are marked to the Thursday close.  And then they “buy to cover” the index options today – driving prices down on the Friday equity options open.  Seems almost “scammerific.”

I won’t make up Ure mind for you, but Case 2 is my current guess.

The “tip” was the change in the slow stochastics yesterday about early in the session which explains why my darts Thursday landed 180-degrees out of phase with reality, eating all of this week’s day-trading profits.  Could-have, should-have, would-have, right?

Oh-well…live and earn. 45-minutes to the open Dow futures down 220 S&P down 24…

Daily Data Dose

We won’t get too interested in much of anything until 10 AM when a host of small numbers come out on things like e-commerce, consumer sentiments, and such.

Overnight, Japan and Australia ran counter the trend, but China and the major markets of Europe are down, so a downward ending the to the week is possible.

If you like to push numbers around, the latest Federal Reserve H.6 report shows how panicky the Fed was back in January when they were raising M1 on a 90-day basis by 4.1% per year annualized. On the other hand, the more recent data, Feb. 4 to May 6 shows the annual print rate for M1 dropping to 1.9 percent.

Combined, we get pictures in our head about the Fed going “hooly-gooly” at the printing press to keep the Christmas Eve meltdown from setting the north pole ablaze.

(Hooly-gooly is a previous Depression term with a meaning akin to “going crazy with” and similar to bazitsu, a word that made a brief appearance in the 1980’s disco world and may in turn have been a bastardization of the Japanese bajitsu which may be related to bajutsu, which was a form of military equestrian.  Bajutsu is a high-art to be mastered before engaging in the high ermartial art of kasagake, or hat-shooting…What, you want me to stay on point?  You do know what website this is, right?)

Time to Play:  Beat-the-Trump

yes, every morning about this time, we look to the loony left to see what the apologists for the in-progress take-down of America are doing in order to bring failing socvialism to a once-great Nation.  One Nation, Under God, and so forth.

First, before this morning’s round, let’s look at a story the criminal illegal’s crowd will not be retweeting:  The case of the Texas serial killer suspect – in the country illegally,  (from Kenya) who may be tied to as many as 12-murders.  (And no telling if there aren’t more…)  We didn’t see this on the left page of the NY Times this morning.  Could I have missed it?  Naw…Apparently, Texas serial killers of 12 don’t rank in importance with (dead) 102-year old architects.

Still the NY Times is our first contestant in the Trump-bash du jour festival with their “Frustrated House Democrats Pin Their Hopes on Mueller.”

Second contestant is the (Lex Luthor?) paper, the WaPo with their “Trump wants his border barrier to be painted black with spikes. He has other ideas, too..”  We score this a “bash” because they left out some of the critical elements of Trump’s plan which, to be honest, seem pretty reasonable to us:  They are also seemingly concerned with dumping illegals in Florida democrat stronghold districts…tisk-tisk.  Equality, remember?

Oh, we also score a “Low T bash” on both E-Coast biggies of the tree-killing news biz: since the Texas serial killer of 12 (+?) didn’t warrant mention on the FP or the WP, either when I looked.

Remedial geographical lessons are in order. Texas population 28.3 million.  New York is 19.85 million, just so’s you know who’s big in ther world outside the Bubble.  D.C. population of DC is only 694-thousand.  Facts to remember,  Remember:  Texas is bigger that New York and DC combined.

OK, so Trump’s points as we remember ’em from our notes.

  • Have immigrants learn to speak English.  One reason (if you’ve been to Canada) is to see how stupid bi-lingualism is…now picture traffic signs with 60-languages which is what lawyers would press for.  You’d need to pull over and stop to read traffic signs.
  • Next idea:  Bring in people with skills.  That way, the poor, already here and already looking for the economic conveyor belt won’t be ignored in favor ot undocumented illegals.  Again, seems to make sense.
  • Oh, and bring people in based on merit, not liberal guilt-tripping.  That way some of the middle (and even upper_) income people could come here and start families and businesses.
  • And they (new-citz’s) would need to demonstrate a “buy-in” to American-style democracy which is what we’re all about.

My personal view is that people who put their religion superior the US government’s authority ought to get time outs to rethink,  Equal is OK, that’s what the sep and church and state’s about.  But when a religion wants to overthrow an elected government?  GTFO.

Time next for our lightning round:  Who are the pretenders to power who are trying to out-outrage one another today?  Ready?  Set?

From CNN: Opinion: 4 ways Trump is trying to be king.

Fox: Liberal billionaire Tom Steyer scolds Dems for not impeaching Trump in scathing ad.

One win for Trump:  Mueller report: Judge orders portions about Michael Flynn to be made public.  As “Government Power Was Used To Spy On American Citizens,” Barr Says.

US Dept. Of “Poof!”

Bitcoin sinks abruptly after seven weeks of recovery.  About $7,000 after being up at $9,000.

OK, go call the animal rights people.  Got the riding mower tuned-up[ and ready to mow down some dandy lions…Which I’m trying to get on the endangered list locally.

And yes, moron the ‘morrow.

26 thoughts on “For the Conspiracy-Minded”

  1. George – there is no question ALL markets are manipulated by public and private actors. Bitcoin trading is perfect example of market manipulation can/does work, once there was a Futures market, too a certain point. The problem for the manipulators in Bitcoin, is Futures do not provide enough of a “push” to move price one way or another. The other is the Transparency of Bitcoins “trading” on Blockchain, there just are not that many coins changing hands.All the volume spikes over the last several years have been B.S. spammers. Precious Metals price manipulation is so Blatant you can front run the Bullion Banks on an almost monthly basis..need big big bucks to really profit from front running Bullion Banks as they fleece the Commercials on regular basis.

    “Bitcoiners” live in the future, they HODL their coins. It is in fact the Only financial system in the world, that will survive SHTF/EGD scenarios. DTC holding ALL securities records – down&out, Banks – d&o, Financial Co’s/Mutual Fd Cos – d&o, Just In Time inventory systems for grocery store – d&o..
    Power restored – good luck with paper records/statements getting your $ back or restored from Financial Institutions – cause they just luv US sooo much.

    Think US Market is going higher ,much higher as we approach the greatest blow off in market history. The cycles are completing, Kondrtieef, Martin Amrstrong all called for HUGE blowoff to end the last grand cycle – 1st cycle started at the end of Rome.
    Almost as if the demons were in final frenzy as the current Yuga closes out.. ushering in some new Vibes..kinda like D.C., the markets and central banks..kinda.

  2. George! You should be making tincture out of those dandy lion roots for your gout, kills to stones with one bird……….

  3. George, not get why we’re still wasting any breath discussing immigration. The time for conservative immigration reform has passed. Gone. Goodbye. The Republicans had the entire government, and threw conservative immigration reform under the bus for tax cuts for the rich. The Base? Classic bait and switch. Story over. Goodnight Irene. Best, Mike.

  4. The Iranian war talk is cooling down after rather loud and pointed public statements from the Ayatollah and the Chief. Precious metals and cryptos are selling off, otherwise most everything is tracking neutral for the moment.
    The real conspiracy story for the last two weeks is who was (and perhaps still is) pumping up the Iranian war talk and why. If it was US government hire-hands acting without the knowledge of the Chief, then there needs to be some personnel adjustments. For a story to leak that we are preparing to send 125,000 troops in to beat up the Iranians when there is no basis, is serious business. The Chief was correct that 125,000 would be a fraction of the manpower needed to invade Iran. Think D-day level staffing, and less than no support from the EU.
    The other related story is the bombing of the two tanker ships. First the Iranians were blamed, then Yemeni groups. Funny that absolutely no one has publicly questioned if a FF operation was involved that I can find. The support, funding and supply of Yemeni militants is complicated. There are more than just Iranian Shiite factions involved.
    Stu’s scenario for the destruction of a US fleet and the wrecking of the Chief’s administration is still in play, and the possibility that the Chief is being played by the neocon hired help and “allies” is where a real conspiracy may lie.

  5. Did you see….
    Just in time for the campaign.. they slapped a new coat of paint on the dead horse issue of abortion LOL LOL LOL LOL LOL

    you betcha.. I think they got it this time.. they have the magic man that if we vote them in will settle this fifty year campaign battle once and for all ….LOL LOL LOL LOL

    How stupid do they seriously think everyone is…..

    OH WAIT…
    the MASSES are ..

    dam.. a country full of drooling idiots.. you kind of expect to see people that look like and have the mentality of those in deliverance and the hills have eyes walking down the street..

    Like what I overheard once from a sitting senator… tell them anything a one two three speech they are all dumb as sheep and will believe anything you tell them……

    the sad part.. is he was right…

    • You don’t get it. You got had. The Donor class threw CONSERVATIVE Immigration Reform under the bus for the Tax Cuts. You’re not gonna get your turn again for 10 more years. Then you’ll get had again. Save your breath. Best, Mike.

  6. “They are also seemingly concerned with dumping illegals in Florida democrat stronghold districts…tisk-tisk. Equality, remember?”

    I might be mistaken but … I thought I read that San Francisco was going to take them in.. have bay area residents sponsor and house them .. pay for their goods and needs…

    https://abag.ca.gov/abag/events/agendas/e012116a-Item%2010,%20Unaccompanied%20Minors%20Report%20Draft.pdf

    http://eastbayrefugeeforum.org/resources/refugee_resett_serv_prov_Alameda.pdf

    https://www.refugeeguardiangroup.org/

    https://blog.remitly.com/lifestyle-culture/sanctuary-cities-in-united-states/

    I like the sponsoing program.. Nancy Pelosi wants someone she pays and takes legal and financial responsibility for them.. that sounds perfectly rational..

    https://www.canada.ca/en/immigration-refugees-citizenship/services/refugees/help-outside-canada/private-sponsorship-program.html

    god.. I swear I am innocent … I didn’t write this letter to the editor.. I could have.. almost word for word.. but I swear it wasn’t me this time LOL….

    https://www.stardem.com/print/lettereditor/send-all-refugees-to-san-francisco/article_25f4d41d-2587-5618-b471-4f9813f54e6e.html

  7. You want a conspiracy?

    With Mnuchin refusing to answer to a subpoena on Trumps tax returns, I think this all now makes sense. Nobody that works for Trump gives a rats patoot about Trump.

    They are all in this con game together because Trump is clueless and is easily manipulated. They all have “Kompromat” on Trump. Yes, they protect him to keep their plan in place…and that’s about it. Nowhere in the history of politics has a group of power brokers had so much power. They are like kids in a candy store with the local dunce behind the cash register letting people steal the goods right from under his nose.

    Mnuchin, Barr, Bolton, Kudlow, and the rest of the wealthy cabal has their own agenda and it involves all of the above making a lot of money post Trump. They are setting themselves up to make deals that will make the 1% a whole lot richer.

    Let’s take the tax cut…which made all the the aforementioned a bit wealthier.

    Companies received a windfall from the corporate tax rate cut of $150 billion in 2018, according to the nonprofit corporate analyst Just Capital. That caused profits to grow, which allows companies to increase dividends. Higher profits also boost a company’s share price. The extra cash also allowed companies to buy back their own shares from the marketplace, reducing the number of outstanding shares and making each share worth more. Even without dividends, shareholders saw their share values increase, adding to their wealth. And corporate CEOs’ compensation went up too, because it typically is tied to share value.

    Indeed, 2018 saw record increases in dividends and record numbers of buybacks. In the third quarter, S&P 500 companies paid out a record $13.66 a share, handing $115.7 billion to shareholders. In the first half of 2018, buybacks jumped by nearly 50 percent when compared with the previous year. Goldman Sachs estimated that corporations spent $770 billion on buybacks in 2018 and will spend $940 billion this year.

    So where is the trickle down? Yes, employment is up, so there is that…but is it sustainable? Is this a short term band-aid for this one and done administration?

    • Were you hoping that the golden trickle radiating from the DC beltway would become a comforting warm shower? Has there been an administration in office since Eisenhower who’s minions weren’t motivated primarily by greed or partisan gang ideology?

      Trump’s largest financial backers were the casino owners. The casino business model requires a constant stream of middle class marks to fleece; therefore, Trump is probably the first candidate in many years whose main backers favor a strong middle class. His minions are no better or worse than the party hacks which preceded them, just more of the same.

      I keep waiting for you to throw out the name of the invisible candidate who will clean up Washington in 2020, and act as the advocate for middle class American citizens. Trump is the only visible contender so far.

  8. If we know what socialism does to a society and we still think that it’s “de·sir·a·ble” for us what does it say about us? Yes, socialism is perfect if — but people ar NOT!!

  9. With federal laws on the books, trump could close the border entirely…HE refuses to do this and HE continues to allow law breakers by the 100000’s to enter out country and then they are feed,medically treated, clothed,housed, and released into our towns and cities ..ALL paid for by MEXICO….as is the wall…Trump is better then Soros in that HE is destroying this country while claiming to “love it’…soros honestly just hate’s the usa….ACTIONS speak louder than words as I will Not vote for trump the next time….fooled me once….my fault….bring on the socialist at least then we will KNOW the true enemy and we can then get off our asses and clean house….as the Tree of Liberty is in dire need of nourishment…imo….Semper Fi

  10. Sir,

    I swear we won’t hear the end of whining about the 700th or so world’s richest man, Mr. Trump, having won the presidency until the last twit is left standing. One’s entertainment needs can be better met watching the shenanigans of the world’s 9th richest man try to weigh upon the levers of power. Hard to port, hard to port; aye aye cap’n!

    The tulips are coming up roses? How many kasakes does a satoshi buy? If the pony shows up knackered we offer cerebral respite with the early Swiss Confederacy tale of William Tell from the canton of Uri.

  11. You folks need to grasp the fact that realistic estimates are showing the number of illegals in the USA is closer to 40 million, not the 11 million the government and the media report. Of course many of them are not “illegals” because the Federal Government is handing them USA passports when they arrive, along with housing vouchers and signing them up for Social Security disability as fast as they can.

    There are no resources to deal with this number of people no matter what brilliant ideas you come up with (while looking in the rear view mirror) to “resolve” this issue. There is not even a functioning Federal Government at this point.

    Its laughable how you follow the government reports and what Trump says like they have any meaning. What Trump says has absolutely no correlation to the reality that manifests later. And nobody can figure out how the government comes up with its statistics, only that they are wildly inaccurate.

    And as for the markets, there are no markets out there, just Algorithms that do 80% of the trading and are guided by AI that follows the news reports. It was laughable to watch the trading by the Algorithms following the Chinese tariff situation. Up one day, down the next, up the next etc. If you want to see an interesting statistic, look at the number of trades made that determine the movement of the market, and then LOOK AT THE NUMBER OF THOSE TRADES THAT ACTUALLY CLOSE THAT RESULT IN A CHANGE OF OWNERSHIP OF THOSE STOCKS (OR BONDS)!

    Fundamentals mean absolutely nothing. You see, when interest rates go to zero or negative, you no longer have an economic system and everything you though you knew about business, economics or trading are simply fairy tales, promoted by the media to keep the suckers in the market to continue their contributions to the 1%.

    Honestly, how can a company go public with a $1 billion market cap and “people” buy that stock when the prediction is that the company will NEVER show a profit? Did you know that the shale/fracking industry has never produced enough oil to service the debt issued to the industry, much less pay that debt off? Thats the kind of stuff that happens with low interest rates.

    True inflation has been running 7-11% PER YEAR for at least the last 7 years. So if your returns on trading or on your investments do not match that, you have been experiencing negative interest rates whether you believe it or not. And if your wages/income have not been increasing to match those percentages, you are simply part of those vanishing out of the middle class who can only afford imported Chinese junk and not products of real quality.

    The bread toaster I grew up with (family of seven) lasted for more than 30 years. Can you afford $100 for a toaster today to buy that kind of quality? Well, you are paying that much for your toaster today by buying one you throw away every two years.

    And BTW, do not bother looking at history for how the end of the Empire unfolds. Unfortunately the failing USA empire is also printing the reserve currency for the world, and when it implodes it will take the economic system of the entire world down with it. Trust me, you do not even have the vocabulary to communicate what that will look like. That limited vocabulary is one reason the USA media does not report what is actually happening in Venezuela or Cuba. They can only say “like this” or “like that” but it is not. It will be like nothing Americans have a frame of reference for, because they have never experienced a depression, a currency failure, a failure of government, an infrastructure failure, the failure of an entire basic industry, etc.

    And this dumbing down process has also included the elimination of the vocabulary of politics and government in the USA education system. Without this terminology available to people so they can discuss the issues and come up with solutions, no solutions are possible that will represent the interests of the people. It is the equivalent of attempting to describe how to make a computer without using any computer terminology or electrical terminology.

    • @ EE

      YOU have hit ALL the ‘ nails on the head ‘ with a 10 lb sledge hammer…great job

      • Great?? What did I miss to comprehend? ;-)

        P.s. “No soup is eaten as hot as it’s cooked.”

    • I’ve said all this before Double E and George has committed entire daily submissions to it on occasion. The level of absurdity the World has dropped to is mainly due to the fact those in charge had no other ideas left and we’ll just keep the band playing while the Titanic sinks. Part of me looks forward to it, part of me doesn’t but the fact that it will take all those that hold themselves above others simply because they have more credit and a few bucks in the digi-bank will be most entertaining to me around this neck of the woods. People care more for their high society status than they do their fellow man which is how things used to be and I miss it terribly. It will take many generations to get back to the level of caring we had up until the 70s and there’s a good chance this will not be the U.S. of A when it happens. It may degenerate into concentration camps with Venezuelan guards speaking Chinese and Russian. I just hope I live long enough to see Chuckie, Nancy and a whole host of Dems and RINOs swing.

    • We HAVE grasped these facts (the number of illegal aliens presently in the U.S. is actually north of 47mln), which is why we’re here, instead of at some corporate start page or lamestream news outlet. That’s also why we hit sites like Breitbart and CNS, and why, although we may take them with a grain of salt, we occasionally drop in on the scare-sites of Tyler Durden, Mac Slavo, &or Michael Snyder.

      Mr. Trump’s Administration uses the same metrics and methodologies as established by the Administrations of Messrs. Bush and Obama. I don’t personally like it, because all the numbers are baked twice before serving, but folks like John Williams provide a rough conversion for most of them, making it possible to interpolate the offishul dreck into ballpark, and sometimes infield accuracy…

  12. The markets are rigged. The big banks have every nuance of the system mapped out and algorithms in place to control them. And then you factor in the laws of gravity with the powerhouse investors (see this article about Tiger21, https://www.marketwatch.com/story/a-group-of-superrich-investors-spooked-by-china-and-the-potential-for-black-swans-raises-cash-to-levels-not-seen-in-years-2019-05-16?mod=MW_home_top_stories) where one trade might influence the entire market simply because of scale. What I’m trying to figure out is why I still earn money in the markets. Are the big houses throwing me a bone, or am I in some way simply feeding the beast (after all, investing is a zero sum game)? It’s all risk management at our level and you got to play to win.

  13. To ExPat’s point, another option China has which we aren’t reading about is to simply ostrasize the United States and do all of its trade with Russia and Europe. Nothing more humbling than being left on the field with nobody to play with. Cutting off Huwaei completely will come back to haunt us for a long time, and don’t forget China has all of the rare earth and other natural resource stockpiles…

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