We hold to the simplistic idea that markets are honest as much as the next guy.
But, when you look at the market action of Thursday and what’s on tap for tyhis morning, you just shake your head, sometimes.
Here’s the “logical choicing” problem in a nutshell.
Case 1: The markets are honest and the difference in performance between yesterday and today is purely driven by crowd psychology and news flow, plus events overnight in foreign markets.
Case 2: Professionals actually do manipulate the markets by driving up the price of index options (like the S&P and Russell) which are marked to the Thursday close. And then they “buy to cover” the index options today – driving prices down on the Friday equity options open. Seems almost “scammerific.”
I won’t make up Ure mind for you, but Case 2 is my current guess.
The “tip” was the change in the slow stochastics yesterday about early in the session which explains why my darts Thursday landed 180-degrees out of phase with reality, eating all of this week’s day-trading profits. Could-have, should-have, would-have, right?
Oh-well…live and earn. 45-minutes to the open Dow futures down 220 S&P down 24…
Daily Data Dose
We won’t get too interested in much of anything until 10 AM when a host of small numbers come out on things like e-commerce, consumer sentiments, and such.
Overnight, Japan and Australia ran counter the trend, but China and the major markets of Europe are down, so a downward ending the to the week is possible.
If you like to push numbers around, the latest Federal Reserve H.6 report shows how panicky the Fed was back in January when they were raising M1 on a 90-day basis by 4.1% per year annualized. On the other hand, the more recent data, Feb. 4 to May 6 shows the annual print rate for M1 dropping to 1.9 percent.
Combined, we get pictures in our head about the Fed going “hooly-gooly” at the printing press to keep the Christmas Eve meltdown from setting the north pole ablaze.
(Hooly-gooly is a previous Depression term with a meaning akin to “going crazy with” and similar to bazitsu, a word that made a brief appearance in the 1980’s disco world and may in turn have been a bastardization of the Japanese bajitsu which may be related to bajutsu, which was a form of military equestrian. Bajutsu is a high-art to be mastered before engaging in the high ermartial art of kasagake, or hat-shooting…What, you want me to stay on point? You do know what website this is, right?)
Time to Play: Beat-the-Trump
yes, every morning about this time, we look to the loony left to see what the apologists for the in-progress take-down of America are doing in order to bring failing socvialism to a once-great Nation. One Nation, Under God, and so forth.
First, before this morning’s round, let’s look at a story the criminal illegal’s crowd will not be retweeting: The case of the Texas serial killer suspect – in the country illegally, (from Kenya) who may be tied to as many as 12-murders. (And no telling if there aren’t more…) We didn’t see this on the left page of the NY Times this morning. Could I have missed it? Naw…Apparently, Texas serial killers of 12 don’t rank in importance with (dead) 102-year old architects.
Still the NY Times is our first contestant in the Trump-bash du jour festival with their “Frustrated House Democrats Pin Their Hopes on Mueller.”
Second contestant is the (Lex Luthor?) paper, the WaPo with their “Trump wants his border barrier to be painted black with spikes. He has other ideas, too..” We score this a “bash” because they left out some of the critical elements of Trump’s plan which, to be honest, seem pretty reasonable to us: They are also seemingly concerned with dumping illegals in Florida democrat stronghold districts…tisk-tisk. Equality, remember?
Oh, we also score a “Low T bash” on both E-Coast biggies of the tree-killing news biz: since the Texas serial killer of 12 (+?) didn’t warrant mention on the FP or the WP, either when I looked.
Remedial geographical lessons are in order. Texas population 28.3 million. New York is 19.85 million, just so’s you know who’s big in ther world outside the Bubble. D.C. population of DC is only 694-thousand. Facts to remember, Remember: Texas is bigger that New York and DC combined.
OK, so Trump’s points as we remember ’em from our notes.
- Have immigrants learn to speak English. One reason (if you’ve been to Canada) is to see how stupid bi-lingualism is…now picture traffic signs with 60-languages which is what lawyers would press for. You’d need to pull over and stop to read traffic signs.
- Next idea: Bring in people with skills. That way, the poor, already here and already looking for the economic conveyor belt won’t be ignored in favor ot undocumented illegals. Again, seems to make sense.
- Oh, and bring people in based on merit, not liberal guilt-tripping. That way some of the middle (and even upper_) income people could come here and start families and businesses.
- And they (new-citz’s) would need to demonstrate a “buy-in” to American-style democracy which is what we’re all about.
My personal view is that people who put their religion superior the US government’s authority ought to get time outs to rethink, Equal is OK, that’s what the sep and church and state’s about. But when a religion wants to overthrow an elected government? GTFO.
Time next for our lightning round: Who are the pretenders to power who are trying to out-outrage one another today? Ready? Set?
From CNN: Opinion: 4 ways Trump is trying to be king.
US Dept. Of “Poof!”
Bitcoin sinks abruptly after seven weeks of recovery. About $7,000 after being up at $9,000.
OK, go call the animal rights people. Got the riding mower tuned-up[ and ready to mow down some dandy lions…Which I’m trying to get on the endangered list locally.
And yes, moron the ‘morrow.