Latest business and finance news & analysis
A few ideas on “How Forecast Reliability Decays — and How to Use It to Your Advantage.” In the world of investing, we all want to know: how far into the future can we trust our forecasts? Whether it’s market movements, volatility, or macroeconomic predictions, the ability to foresee what’s coming is a valuable tool … Read More
Just out – today’s financial Biggie: Case Shiiller Housing. Data through December 2025 reveals the following: Year-Over-Year The S&P Cotality Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price NSA Index, covering all nine U.S. census divisions,reported a 1.3% annual gain in December, in line with the previous month. The 10-City Composite annual increase came in at 1.9%, down … Read More
This is a two-parter today. Here, I spill my guts about markets and (living in the) woods life. Then, across the top of the hour, the Case-Shiller Housing data rolls, so y’all come back, here? First, congrats to The Economic Fractalist for calling the break well. I think he’s posting on Thursdays, so be sure to … Read More
Truth be told? I must have been the guy in the back alley behind a diner in the thirties who ran the floating craps game. This week sets up like the classic “could go either way.” As I showed you Friday, we’d get to the resolution of a bounce in our state-variance extremes modeling – and … Read More
I guess we should finish off the fine-points of the deck build first. You need lights at night to see where you are walking. Liability, lawyers, that kind of thing. The deck stairs (if anyone is stupid enough to come on rural Texas ranch land – at night – with a risk of surveillance cams) … Read More
Friday we saw exactly what we anticipated — a “split decision” in the markets. One model suggests we may have a bit more upside compression ahead, possibly even one final squeeze before a larger turn. Another clock is ticking toward a potential unwind. The key right now isn’t prediction — it’s instrumentation. When markets compress, … Read More
“Showdown at the ol’ Market Corral today, pahdna.” (Plus another day of Multi-Domain Sweep of Universe.) I am really looking forward to this afternoon’s close in markets. Because we will get some incredibly useful insights into state-variance extremes versus fractal market analysis. As you know, The Economic Fractalist has been calling for a hard violent turn … Read More
For non Peoplenomics readers – and gentle civilians who don’t indulge in market cosplay – I will keep this fairly simple. In our ChartPack Wednesday, I made a very useful remark. The kind that burns like an ember in the brain overnight and results in leaping out of bed at 3 AM with the “brain on fire” … Read More
Maybe, But Education Might Not Be the Answer Anymore In this week’s Peoplenomics we delve into two pressing questions: State-Variance Extremes: The Key to Market Moves Our custom State-Variance Extremes model has been helping us stay ahead of the market’s movements, with a notable 11% gain in the first two months this year. We take … Read More
The early futures today are down. But in Europe, it’s a different tale. There, markets are up – not ginormously – but up, nevertheless. Why down on the futures, including gold and silver, then? Wasn’t our state-extreme variance trading model showing a rally is the more likely move ahead? Could be “mechanical short-covering.” See, when there is … Read More
A few minutes after 5 AM in East Texas. I’m in “the chair” and locked to do battle with the “smell-checker” while keeping the rapier wit honed to a surgical edge. EXCEPT: It’s a “Day off.” Well…sort of. This week is my 77th birthday. And I’d like to thank the U.S. Congress for one of the … Read More
Fortunately, I didn’t have to spend much time with the daily tracking of the “luny left” because Reader Ray laid it all out in a Comment section remark here in response to the Saturday Peoplenomics report: When Price Stops Mattering, Brace yourself. Because the core concept on the layout table today is from the old … Read More
Most people think nothing much is happening right now. Markets are drifting, headlines are recycled, and the sense of urgency feels muted. That’s usually when I start paying closer attention. Because the biggest moves rarely begin with noise — they begin with compression. Right now, a series of structural indicators suggest we’re coiled inside a … Read More