OK, the first thing to get out of the way is Amazon Prime Day is on today. The usual landing page for readers is here. The reason I like Prime Days is because living in the Outback of East Texas, as we do, this is a chance to save a good amount on a few major purchases we have been eyeing.
Since our (ongoing) outlook is for much higher food prices to come, the operating question is which is the best of three competing approaches for us: One is to put a mini-split air conditioning system in the 10 x 20 greenhouse. That’s where it has become too hot for my tomatoes and cuke to support flowers (hence fruit) to term. One solution therefore is simple. Mini-split and add to our already 30+ panels online to reduce the operating costs to near zero.
The second option is to buy a large outdoor raised bed system – put it on top of concrete blocks – or put a smaller version of it on the front of the house. They are marked down about 15 percent.
Third choice is to just buy more freeze-dried foods and emphasize the beef and chicken portions because I’ve been writing about the coming protein cost explosion since 2006.
Remember, I’m 8 months from 78 and Elaine just rolled over 83 on the odometer. Having said that, reader input is welcome. Because this is one of those (damn) “doesn’t come with decision support instructions” that crop up in life. They will all work – but do we look at the deteriorating long range climate or the possibility of wanting covered growing because of fallout? Then, above all, do raised beds (open bottom) produce any more on a per square food basis than a greenhouse which isn’t becoming a part-time welding rod baking cabinet?
As always, we want to be ahead of the curve which now includes thinking like Super El Nino: Famine Follows War? Turning over dirt isn’t food on the table.
News Compressor
It’s OK to be bored today. Should be a slow one. Except markets which we will get to in a sec. For now the Big Picture is what changed overnight is the economic/market decisions environment shifted from Middle East war shock toward a more complicated “ceasefire plus rate-risk” market. U.S.-Iran/Israel/Lebanon diplomacy appears active enough to pull oil lower, but the market is now treating cheaper oil as less important than a Federal Reserve that may be more hawkish and less transparent under Chair Kevin Warsh.
For households, fuel relief may be coming slower than headline oil suggests; for investors and operators, the near-term risk is a tech/AI multiple reset combined with higher borrowing-cost expectations. Confidence: medium-high on the market/oil/Fed vector; medium on the diplomatic durability.
So, We Turn To Markets
“Truth of the Stock Tape” is what the late Martin Zweig called it.
As you can see following the red trace of our Aggregate Index compared to the Dow leading into the 1929 crash, we are again at a critical inflection point today.
The bottom line is we had an initial decline from the most recent “attempted kiss” of the upper trend line. Then we broke lower for an Elliott wave (1) down. We rallied more than 50 percent of that decline. And now we are down to the decision point.
We will speculate more in Peoplenomics ChartPack tomorrow (usually runs 30 pages or so) but it is possible this is a 3 down starting of what could turn into a nightmare. But then comes the problem all Elliott fans understand. The real problem isn’t whether this is a Wave 3 down, it’s whether the wave 3 is here, at all.
That’s because under Elliott if Wave 2 is simple (short, regular) which it seems to be (so far), then the coming (*eventual) Wave 4 ought to be irregular – so when we get to 4 you might see a lot of sideways action. If we go up from here, the small 1-2-3 may have all been a fake-out. Which makes it a questionable stew pot to throw money in.
News Outlooks May Guide – a Bit
As you’d expect, we model “two flavors” of news around here. One being the traditional look-ahead short-term:
Next 12 hours — U.S. market open will test whether the tech selloff is contained or turns into broader de-risking. Nasdaq futures were reported down more than 2% with AI buildout costs and rate-hike expectations weighing on mega-cap tech. What could change the outcome: a calmer bond market, oil stabilization, or fresh Fed clarification. Confidence: 75.
12–24 hours — Middle East ceasefire implementation and Lebanon-Israel talks in Washington are the main geopolitical watch. Reuters says new Lebanon-Israel talks begin under the shadow of a U.S.-Iran memorandum that includes ceasefire language across fronts. What could change the outcome: Hezbollah rejection, Israeli withdrawal terms, IAEA access terms, or a Strait of Hormuz incident. Confidence: 65.
24–48 hours — Severe weather and flash-flood risk remains live across parts of the U.S. NWS flags severe thunderstorms and excessive rainfall today, with flash-flood potential extending from southern New Mexico toward the Gulf Coast into Wednesday. What could change the outcome: stalled storms over saturated ground. Confidence: 80.
24–48 hours — BEA has major releases scheduled June 25 at 8:30 AM ET, including Q1 GDP third estimate, corporate profits, state GDP, state personal income, and PCE price index next release. What could change the outcome: hotter PCE or weaker profits would feed the Fed/market story. Confidence: 85.
48–96 hours — Supreme Court term-end rulings remain a domestic policy wildcard. Reuters lists pending cases involving voting rules, presidential power, tariffs, immigration, campaign finance, and agency power with rulings expected by end of June. What could change the outcome: any ruling touching tariffs, voting, or executive power. Confidence: 70.
48–96 hours — Atlantic tropics are quiet for now, but NHC tropical-wave discussions still matter as the Gulf season ramps. No immediate cyclone signal was found in the accessible NHC scan. What could change the outcome: convection organizing with falling pressures in the Caribbean or Gulf. Confidence: 75.
We don’t know many people who would volunteer to go into that kind of casino, unless there was some big potential upside (like a “three bagger” or better.
“Rustling News Leaves”
This is much harder than the Mainstream Economic outlooks (now sans Greenspan, of course). This is where people go monk-like for an hour looking for any “signals down in the financial news noise floor” to see if Future is passing out “hint cards” there. Think of these as “news globs” looking for believers to follow their scent.
Signal: Fed communication opacity may become a volatility driver. If Warsh reduces forward guidance, markets may overreact to every governor speech and data print. Confirmation: rising 2-year yields plus wider intraday swings after routine data. Confidence: 72. Could just be normal market “pre-decline scapegoating.”
Signal: Ebola in DRC/Uganda remains low U.S. risk but operationally important. Confirmation: if there is spread into major cities, exported cases, or CDC travel advisory changes. Confidence: 68.
Signal: Actively exploited enterprise vulnerabilities are clustering around edge/security/logging platforms. Confirmation: CISA KEV additions with 3–7 day patch deadlines and ransomware references. Confidence: 80.
Signal: Taiwan military drills for the next five days and Chinese carrier activity are not a crisis by themselves, but the tempo is higher. Confirmation: live-fire zones going hot, air-defense alerts, U.S. arms-sale movement, or shipping advisories. Confidence: 66. But China will get Taiwan (in our modeling), leaving only at what cost in dollars and bloodshed.
Signal: Forced-labor tariff proposals could quietly alter small-business import economics. Confirmation: final USTR rule, Customs enforcement guidance, or distributor price notices. Confidence: 60.
Expected Noise Spikes
Several items jumped out of data runs this morning – and they could herald more to come:
AI Bubble – What changed: Reuters reports Nasdaq futures fell as AI infrastructure spending and rate outlook hit tech, while SpaceX’s post-IPO volatility and bond-market use are drawing attention. Change vector: Escalating. Average investors with index exposure are now exposed to whether AI capex produces cash flow fast enough.
Personal response: Watch debt issuance, cash flow, and supplier/customer split: chip and memory suppliers may trade differently than companies funding giant AI builds.
Ukraine War Tactics Watch ongoing. What changed: ISW says Ukrainian forces are conducting strikes aimed at denying Russia logistics and fuel transport across the Kerch Strait; Kyiv Independent reported overnight drone activity in occupied territory and Russia. Change vector: Escalating interdiction. Energy, Black Sea shipping, and insurance risk can move even when front lines look static. HUMINT keeps worrying about nuke plants and regional power issues up into the Baltics.
Personal response: Watch confirmed hits on bridges, refineries, ports, and rail nodes rather than claims alone. Prime Day radiation monitor shopping in order? Personal judgment call, of course.
Longer Term, the Real Battles are in Education. That’s where thinking-styles and behavioral norms have been assaulted: Brave Books claims public libraries scrub faith from kids’ history. There’s good reason to avoid a rush to book-burn anything that doesn’t meet revisionist values screening. Just look at recent events in (once) Great Britain and project failure modes from that.
Around the Ranch: Timenamics Tomorrow
Finishing touches on my latest book are going on this morning and then (this is something like book #19) will be finished. Like many others, this will end up on a Peoplenomics bookshelf. Which leaves only one question: “What is Timenamics: Time as the Hidden Currency really about?”
Funny you should ask: Timenamics is my attempt to put a ruler on the one thing none of us can buy more of: lived time.
Money is not the prime currency of life; money is frozen time, stored effort, delayed action, and sometimes a very expensive illusion. The book walks through True Time Cost, decision friction, attention theft, digital distraction, AI as a time amplifier in addition to being a Mind Amplifier, and the hidden ways modern life converts our days into someone else’s yield.
The practical value is that once you start measuring life in time instead of dollars, a lot of nonsense falls apart. Jobs, subscriptions, errands, habits, meetings, news, clutter, gadgets, even “free” services can be judged by a cleaner question: does this return more life (time) than it consumes? That is where Timenamics moves from theory into operating doctrine: recover attention, compress decisions, automate the low-value loops, and spend your remaining hours where they compound.
For Peoplenomics readers, the whole book goes up tomorrow as a subscriber value-add because this is exactly the kind of work PN is built for: economics you can actually use at the kitchen table, in the shop, in the portfolio, and inside your own head. Markets matter, but time is the larger market we all trade in every day. Timenamics is a field manual for getting more of your life back before the world figures out how to invoice you for the rest of it.
If you aren’t a Peoplenomics subscriber, here’s how to become one.
On that note, more coffee and back to proofing. The 80 proof and higher will have to wait…
Write when you get rich,
George@ure.net\