News

Yes:  The market will drop 200 points today.

Yes, it is due to trade with China collapsing:  “Commodities rout deepens as Chinese trade data signal weaker demand.”

And yes, the Baltic Dry Index is at 551 and dangerously low, as we have been telling you for months.

We begin this morning by wondering whether the Federal Reserve will really go ahead with its announced intentions to raise rates a week from tomorrow.

The reason is that events are starting to pile up against a rate hike.

Let’s consider the problem broadly:  America has roughly $18-trillion in public debt and it all needs to be financed.

The Fed, which is looking to raise rates a quarter, would increase the cost of paying interest on that debt $450 –billion.  That expense has to be born by someone (check the mirror for the answer).

In long wave economic theory, there is a good case to raise rates when times are bad and when deflation is running amuck.

The reason is the most of the One Percenters have their dough tied up in interest-rate related investments.  Obviously, if rates are low, say 2%, a million dollar nest egg is only going to generate $20,000 of interest income per year.  But, when the Fed is watering down the purchasing power of the fiat Federal Reserve “Notes” by 5.9% per year, 2% returns are losing on a purchasing power basis.

When the interest rate is higher, say 5%, then the interest income on a million buc ks pencils out to $50-thousand a year.

As interest rates have fallen, it is this very dynamic that has forced the One Percent to concentrate larger and larger pools in fixed income products.  Why take chances, right?

So in order to have a workable $500-thousand a year income with a 2% interest rate, you need $25-million to play with.

As the money piles up around the edges, the rates keep coming down and sooner, or later, you get a deflationary depression as prices collapse.

The magic is to increase the interest rates.  And the way to do that is increase the cost of money…and the latest Fed Money supply figures show there has been no growth in M1 – ion fact it was dropping 9-10th’s of one percent per year if you look at the 3-month average.

All of which is foreplay to rates going up..

But the problem to behold this morning is whether Yellen has played this game of “chicken” too long?

We are seeing some impressive arguments against the rate hike in a quick scan of business data this morning.

First, and foremost, the National Federation of Independent Business is our with their just-release take on how the business climate looked for small business in November.  Here’s a telling quote under their headline “Small Business Optimism Collapses in November after Three Stagnant Months”:

“Uncertainty in DC, federal agencies playing politics and a President that is willing to punish the current economy for inconsequential environmental benefits in the future indicates that business conditions will not be revived anytime soon. Even though there is talk that the Fed will be raising rates this month, it will hardly signal that they are feeling more optimistic about the economy.

“Overall, the outlook remains the same with a slow 2 percent-ish growth and there is still not much pressure on prices from Main Street.

Read More

That headline off to the right there should give you a pretty good idea about what being “tuned-in” to “the force” is all about.

We received an email from what sounded like a county government worker who was being blessed with the job of installing a whole bunch of new lights – and the job would take place ahead of Thanksgiving.

But the really AMAZING part of this reader’s description of a sold change in the pace of the news flow is how absolutely-freaking good his call has been.

Read More

We don’t look for any major melt-up in the market today.

In fact, it looks like we will get some continuation of the rally that started last week.

But the big story to focus on this morning is the president’s latest “talk around” on Islamic terrorism – now come to America – while his attorney general is attempting to hush the issue with vague threats to prosecute those who don’t “drink the Kool-Aid” of White House jingoism and sloganeering.

To begin with, the president’s speech: So far as we know, he have never been able to call out Islamic jihadists directly.  And if you’d like to read his latest “talk-around” it is available on the White House website here.

Obama did get close to calling out Islamic jihadists, but close doesn’t work when plain speaking is in order:

Here’s what else we cannot do.  We cannot turn against one another by letting this fight be defined as a war between America and Islam.  That, too, is what groups like ISIL want.  ISIL does not speak for Islam.  They are thugs and killers, part of a cult of death, and they account for a tiny fraction of more than a billion Muslims around the world — including millions of patriotic Muslim Americans who reject their hateful ideology. Moreover, the vast majority of terrorist victims around the world are Muslim.  If we’re to succeed in defeating terrorism we must enlist Muslim communities as some of our strongest allies, rather than push them away through suspicion and hate. 

That does not mean denying the fact that an extremist ideology has spread within some Muslim communities.  This is a real problem that Muslims must confront, without excuse.  Muslim leaders here and around the globe have to continue working with us to decisively and unequivocally reject the hateful ideology that groups like ISIL and al Qaeda promote; to speak out against not just acts of violence, but also those interpretations of Islam that are incompatible with the values of religious tolerance, mutual respect, and human dignity.

More important, to the aware reader, is the administrations continued deference to terminology like ISIL instead of ISIS.

Read More

So here we are, with only a couple of weeks to go until Christmas.   Elaine and I are wondering about setting our “big projects” for 2016.

Part of it will be determined by how Panama and his lady friend/intended do in their house-hunting.  But it seems the odds that they will be successful WILL work out one of these times.

I may have mentioned that Panama is the only person I have ever met – over the course of fifty-plus years to have three solid home purchase offers blow-up.  All were for a variety of reasons, but that’s the thing about “Luck.”

With most people, when luck runs with you, you’ll do things like I did on the latest road trip – and actually come out ahead several hundred dollars in a casino.  Then it runs against you.  It might be a flat tire, getting in the slowest possible line to check-out at the grocery store, or some other nit like that.  Small pluses, small minuses.

Read More

With the Holidays immediately before us, a few notes on personal futuring are in order.

Whenever you have people over for the holidays that you don’t see all the time, it’s a unique opportunity to got “knowledge trolling.”

By the time most of us get to “investing age” (which we define as having more than $50 bucks left-over on payday), we have some fairly concrete expectations about the way we thing the world ought to work.

However, as our investing results often feed back to us, our expectations are often wrong about the future.

Read More

The stock market dropped 252 points yesterday and – if things don’t go well at the close today – our model which has been long the market may change its mind.  (This will be updated in the Saturday Peoplenomics.com report.)

In the meantime, we are watching from as far-off as we can as the world gets wrapped around the axel of current events.

We more or less know that by late 2016 to mid 2017, the world should be in a financial meltdown that will dwarf anything in history.

The reason? 

There is a Second Muslim Invasion of Europe underway, and the spillover here into the former-U.S.A. is ramping up because of insane decisions by a very questionable man-at-the-top.

While the NY Times is headlining that FBI Treats San Bernardino Attack as Possible Terrorism Case, we have to wonder why the media insists on using the word “possible” when it related to a Muslim  couple opening fire and killing more than a dozen people on the one hand, while questionable pseudo-scientific claims like warming never include the word “possible.”

Media bias, plain and simple, is what it looks like from our hide-out in the well-armed East Texas Outback.

But even now, there are still large gaps in the public’s awareness of just how screwed-up we really are.

We are being fed bull-crap from the top by this administration:  The lefty mantra about gun control (even as taunted by supporters) would not have prevented Paris, nor would it have prevented San Bernardino.  Criminals and terrorists don’t obey laws.  Is this so terribly hard to understand?  (*Disappointingly, the current answer is “yes”.)

The REAL problem is that the occupant of the White House is delusional and can neither speak the word “Muslim terrorists” nor can will he enforce this Nation’s existing laws on the books.

Forget that he’s a presidential candidate, for a moment, and watch this exchange between Senator Ted Cruz who rakes Sarah Saldaña of Immigration and Customs Enforcement over the coals in a Capitol Hill hearing.

One key number is that there are 918,369 illegal aliens in the U.S. who have been ordered removed by the FedGov, but which they have not done.

Mind you, this is not because of inability or a lack a skill on the part of Border Patrol or ICE agents – who we hold in the highest regard – but by the Obama administration’s deliberate breaking of federal laws ordering removal.  The Obama administration is keeping almost a million people who SHOULDN’T BE HERE according to due process.

Hiding behind a lack of “travel documents?”  Get serious…(The saying don’t bullshit a bullshitter comes to mind but may be too direct for breakfast time reading…the FedGov is who makes up “travel docs” – d’oh…)

We ask only the obvious:  To what end?

And if not to subvert America directly, then what?  Yet while this goes on, there is still no motion on impeachment.

Not that Washington it the only place where the data is flowing in from:  Texas this week has sued the FedGov over the dumping of Syrian refugees in the state.

Read More

If you’re under 50, new to this site, this morning is “Old Men Talking About Real Shit” –  – the kind of crap that doesn’t make it onto the teevee and which your politically correct mush-filled brain can’t possibly have assimilated. You’re not old enough.

This is also because people under 50 have been inculcated, inoculated, politicized, guilt-tagged, stupefied, and fluoridated well past the bounds of rationality.  If you’re an under 50 reader, you have our sincere admiration.  Clear thinking is a rarity.

Read More

Immediately after the Paris attacks, we raised a very pertinent question on the www.peoplenomics.com side of the house:  Could terrorism become a business model?  Are there unseen manipulators who are making a killing in all senses of the word?

I spent a good part of Wednesday afternoon and evening tied to a San Bernardino County sheriff’s scanner listening to the drama play out.

But already, we were keenly aware that this latest Islamic Outrage was sadly fitting a number of predictive markers.

To begin with, there is our “murder cycle” work that suggests mass killing sprees often happen in the 139-146 days period after a previous mass killing.

As soon as initial reports can in, I hopped on the computer and calculated that 145-days earlier would have been around the 10th of  July.

According to the website www.shootingtracker.com, there were 19 murders in the US in this timeframe – the largest of which was the Chattanooga, TN shooting spree alleged to have been committed by Muhammad Youssef Abdulazeez .  This one resulted in 5 killed (including 4 U.S. Marines) and wounded 3 back on July 15th.

Moreover, this report from Business Insider noted that:

“According to Reuters and SITE, Abdulazeez blogged on Monday that “life is short and bitter” and Muslims should not miss an opportunity to “submit to Allah,” according to an organization that tracks extremist groups.”

In our work, we should expect another shooting outrage in the vicinity of April 16, 2016.

Returning to the immediate events, you’ll recall that I discussed with you last week how it was my opinion that as the number of undetected jihadists jumped over legal immigration requests by the Obama administration’s f/u’ed immigration schemes increased, as soon as America awareness on point began to increase, the shootings and attacks in the Homeland would increase because the invaders would have “nothing to lose.”

I hate being right about bad stuff for our beloved country.

Indeed, as predicted, in the aftermath this morning, we note that the Community Organizer in Chief is once again using this tragedy of San Bernardino as an excuse to attack legal gun ownership.  Yet the weapons used were long guns and we note that Obama has never been able to utter the worlds “militant Muslim jihadists.”  It’s a talk-around point and highly suspect.

If the Obama anti-gun people were more honest, they would note that strict gun control in France didn’t stop the mass killings there a few weeks back.  According to Wikipedia, France is tough on guns:

The total number of firearms owned by an individual is also subject to limits (not possible to have more than 12 authorizations/permits on B1, B2 and B4 type firearms).^[98] As of September, 2013, France has a capacity limit of 20 rounds for handguns;^[99] one needs a permit for category one^{[clarification needed]} semi-automatics that have a capacity greater than 3 rounds. Fully automatic firearms are illegal for civilian ownership.

As I have told you repeatedly:  Gun control does not impact militant jihadists, drug cartels, or the evil criminal elements of this world.  They simply don’t care about “laws” of infidels, Nortes, or fools.  (If you think otherwise, put a checkmark next to the “fools” category for yourself.

But to the main points:

This morning, the futures are bouncing back (up 44 when I checked).  But is it possible that within the jihadist community there are day traders?  We wonder because if you KNEW in advance of an event such as yesterdays, would it have been possible to buy put options on the weekly S&P series, buy them the day before and then off;load them after a bump in price by late afternoon when the S&P was down 23 points and 1.1%?

It’s the same question we raised around the Paris shootings.; in that one, however, there were more bodies and an even larger market move in reaction.

At some point, those with foreknowledge of events could do very well trading – and making money for their antihuman and criminal enterprise.  Cowering under the cover of being a “religion” the extremists  – in our outlook – will now promote more attacks in the West.

It will serve to further restrict gun rights while at the same time getting the civilian population used to the idea of “no more freedoms.”  We note that Belgium essentially lost ALL civil rights in the witch-hunt following Paris.

The next major move we can begin thinking about is whether James B.

Read More

I need YOUR investment advice.

This takes a bit of explaining, so here goes:  On Wednesday, over on the www.peoplenomics.com side of the house, we had the start of a very interesting discussion about 2016 financial planning.

This morning, I’d like YOU to toss in your 2-cents worth in response to a very simple question:

How good are you going to be at picking THE ONE BEST INVESTMENT VEHICLE which should outperform ALL OTHERS in 2016?

Read More

Now that TurboTax Home & Business 2015 Federal + State Taxes + Fed Efile Tax Preparation Software – PC/Mac Disc ($80, Amazon) is shipping and I’ve gotten it installed, it’s time to get serious about my “personal management plan” for 2016.

This is something that goes on all the time in real businesses:  There is a year-end review and the examination of all pertinent financial information is usually quite exhaustive.

Is it therefore any wonder than most corporations are extremely well-managed?  Hardly.  There is a combination of method and plan that leads to inevitable management success.

Read More

Readers should likely be thinking more about geopolitics than the markets this week.

There have been some reports that Turkey either has, or will, impose restrictions on oceanic traffic transiting the Turkish Straits (the Dardanelles). 

This would likely set off World War III, if true and prolonged,  since Turkey is in a key position as the “door to Europe” from the Middle East.

Before getting into the specifics of war worries, we need to step back and look at how the War with ISIS has been a mainly “soft war” – so far.

The U.S. actually got things rolling when the residual neocons – still holding sway among Washington’s power elite – managed to convince the idjits at the top that toppling yet-another-government in the Middle East would be “good” for the U.S.

We refer to the “idjits at the top” because anyone on this side of an Alzheimer’s Unit remembers how well the last neocon (made-up) LIE about regime change worked.  If the National Media Kool-Aid continues to work its magic on you, that would be the ill-managed Iraq War.

The neocons have done it again, not once, but actually TWICE – by screwing with two former areas of relative stability (Ukraine) and Syria where the neocon remnants declared war on president Assad with no corresponding concurrence from Congress.  There, lead by death-merchant lobbyist-controlled miscreants, there has been no restraint on U.S. war-making.

Read More

Now that we have been home, and with the flu symptoms and aches & pains declining, we have gotten back to the largest problem in Life.

Which is:  Where to live to make “the most of it.”

As you may remember, I wrote a book 10+years ago titled “How to Live on $10,000 a Year – or Less.”   It has been hopeless copied and ripped off – my welcome to digital publishing.

It has always been a cornerstone in our thinking that living below our means makes sense for people of all ages.  Tomorrow I will be doing and update on our Peoplenomics.com site about how our plans for living well on Social Security for the two of us are doing.  Short summary:  Quite well.

Read More

The news came out in a press release from ShopperTrak this weekend:

CHICAGO – Nov. 28, 2015 – ShopperTrak, the leading global provider of consumer behavior insights and location-based analytics, today released its preliminary sales estimate for brick-and-mortar retail on Thanksgiving Day (11/26/15) and Black Friday (11/27/15). The two dates accumulated a projected $12.1 billion in combined sales, which is an estimated decrease versus 2014.

Read More