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Problemology: Fed Ahead

The charts have turned materially more defensive. The Dow is still pretending the party can continue, but the S&P and especially the NASDAQ are telling a rougher story. Our short-term measures now suggest the market may try a brief rally first, but the larger setup favors a harder move down into August rather than a clean run to fresh highs.

The deeper concern is that several warning systems are lining up at once: weakening market breadth, deteriorating state-variance readings, vulnerable moving-average structures, and an Aggregate Index pattern that is beginning to rhyme with prior manic tops. History never repeats perfectly, but it does have a bad habit of reusing familiar machinery when money, leverage, war and policy mistakes arrive together.

That does not mean “sell everything Monday morning.” It means risk has shifted. A bounce could still appear, especially around support and ahead of the Fed, but we would treat strength as suspect until the market proves otherwise. The full ChartPack lays out the likely sequence, the critical levels, and why the next few weeks may matter far more than the daily headlines suggest.

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1 thought on “Problemology: Fed Ahead”

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  1. SIX HUNDRED MILLION DOLLARS !

    That is all tonights PowerBall Jackpot is chief, a measly $600,000,000 .
    In todays outrageously inflating world, Trillions are the new Millions, YES TRILLIONS- ya know they begin to add up after a while..

    Do I hear 120 Trillion in Debt? Over / Under ?

    Our once glorious country (when was that?) rich in natural resources , is now more like a foreclosed flop house/fat farm/drug den. Economy is in shitter for middle class (where are they?) and lower, and there is only MOAR DEBT in sight. Must be why the Cheeser down under be buying debt/bonds, discounted junk.
    You see how much the Secretary of Fudgepacking is asking connedgress for our continuing war efforts this week? Real manly man this character -https://www.theinteldrop.org/2026/07/22/pentagons-trillion-dollar-crisis-threatens-american-superpower-status/

    Our Boys and Girls are getting slaughtered over there in hypersonic missile attacks. Not hanging out in abandoned Palaces, HIDING in abandoned Palaces. Ships cant get near gulf without suffering causalities. Now the Houthi rebels are put a hurtin on the House of saud. Yerp brilliant War Planning by Dept Defense cake eaters- how much you wanna bet me they DONT have A Clue, let alone a viable PLAN.

    Why does this administration continue to act as if they are dumber than a box of Rocks ? Is it because slo bribem was so stupid and slow, and yet successfully navigated 4 years of Presidency with only 2 Brain cells intact ?

    I had to quite drinking earlier this year as the Juice was no longer worth the squeeze.

    So I guess its time for a Wake & Bake session, instead of some healthful Shot of Bourbon in the morning, before riding the fields checking on the crops and “workers”(raised beds & jack russels). I thought I had a rather loose grip on Sanity, in light of all of the above, I do believe I am as Sane as Sane can be.

    Reply

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