Long Wave Economics

We were kinda thinking something would be along to maybe fuel the market with a pre Labor Day Rally.  Sure enough, a somewhat stronger than expected S&P/Case Shiller Housing report just out: YEAR-OVER-YEAR The S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price NSA Index, covering all nine U.S. census   divisions, reported 0.0% annual change in June, up from … Read More

This morning’s report will fly in two pieces.  The first is the usual parade line-up of passing lunacy.  The second, about quarter after the hour, will be the Case-Shiller housing data.  Like we say in middle America: Dew Drop Inn, again, yah hear? Spot the Loonies! In Canada, this is an easy task – find … Read More

There is only one reason to pay any attention to markets, the slop that passes for “news” and even the weather forecast.  The reason is to “better grapple with Future.” Think of it this way:  When you get up in the morning, your “mission for the day” is to safely “cross the street” into the Future … Read More

Indulge an old man for a minute – and learn a new skill in the process! You see, my pal of 71-years (The Major) is in recovery from a knee replacement this week.  So, I thought a return to those “thrilling days of yesteryear” might have some curative effects. The scene-setter, therefore is the old Owens … Read More

Why did I sit out going short this weekend?  Therein lies a useful tale about charts, caution, time value, risk and every other financial term you can conjure up. Oh, don’t get me wrong!  I’m not going bullish, or anything outright stupid like that.  It’s just a gut feeling about “pre-holiday rallies” which (gotten wrong) … Read More

I listened to the Chairman – and since I wrote up what I thought would be the “right” talking points, I was hoping for a lot more than the namby-pamby nothing burger served at Jackson’s Hole today. Didn’t talk about the cost of war and how to finance that. Didn’t talk about bases forward in … Read More

There is a much-awaited speech from Fed boss Jerome Powell up in two hours from our morning posting time. While most speculation is that he will try to “hit one down the middle” (I think that was the WSJ assessment) people don’t generally realize how much serious change is afoot in the world. As I … Read More

We are blessed with some mighty good prognosticators reading and predicting the future for us. For example, reader Ray told us what to expect in the two-way trainwreck pawned off as legit debates last night.  Here was his “preview” Monday: “Trump confirms won’t join this week’s Republican presidential debates.” What Trump is doing is far … Read More

Although we had a very-much expected pop up in the market Monday – what that Spidey sense was warning me away from on Friday of last week – we are still in an area where a modest increase in market fortunes could arise before Labor Day. Unlike most pre-holiday periods, however, this one could spin with a … Read More

No, you won’t find “huriquakes” in the O.E.D. But it was something mentioned Saturday morning to our Peoplenomics subscribers: “What not many are aware of is the problem of Earthquakes that can accompany very low-pressure systems. The Los Angeles Times mention, as long ago as 1988 that low pressure could be a driver of earthquakes:  Air … Read More

We will spend a few minutes on the “Cycletron” spreadsheet after the ChartPack today. Looking at some ideas about the future that may be useful in plotting your own course to, and through, what seems to be coming. As you’ll remember, I built a spreadsheet that lets you consider a range of starting points from … Read More

Here’s a shocker for you:  The day after Memorial Day this year, the total U.S. Public Debt to the Penny was $31,463,988,658,765.75.  Too many numbers for this early in the day?  Then call it $31.46 trillion. As of the most recent numbers posted, the Public Debt to the Penny is up to $32,661,578,249,677.03.  But again, … Read More