Housing: An Upside Surprise?

We were kinda thinking something would be along to maybe fuel the market with a pre Labor Day Rally.  Sure enough, a somewhat stronger than expected S&P/Case Shiller Housing report just out:

The S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price NSA Index, covering all nine U.S. census   divisions, reported 0.0% annual change in June, up from a loss of -0.4% in the previous month. The 10-   City Composite showed a decrease of -0.5%, which is an improvement on the -1.1% decrease in the previous month. The 20-City Composite posted a year-over-year loss of -1.2%, up from -1.7% in the previous month.

Chicago, Cleveland, and New York again led the way reporting the highest year-over-year gains among the 20 cities in June. Chicago remained in the top spot with a 4.2% year-over-year price increase, with Cleveland in at number two with a 4.1% increase, and New York held down the third spot with a 3.4% increase. There again was an even split of 10 cities reporting lower prices and those reporting higher prices in the year ending June 2023 versus the year ending May 2023; 13 cities showed price acceleration relative to the previous month.

Now, check this out:

Before seasonal adjustment, the U.S. National Index posted a 0.9% month-over-month increase in June, while the 10-City and 20-City Composites also posted like increases of 0.9%. After seasonal adjustment, the U.S. National Index posted a month-over-month increase of 0.7%, while the 10-City and 20-City Composites both posted increases of 0.9%.

This means prices are going up WAY FASTER than the Fed would like to see.

Case Shiller housing price chart

This should be a truly “can’t please everyone moment” for Wall Street.  The number is strong, inflation continues – as I warned you last week several times – of being in the tinder-dry conditions where a fire of higher interest rates could be along any time.  Big labor settlements for UPS, big increases in bond rates, and next thing you know, someone will figure out stocks are wildly overvalued.

MEANTIME: keep an eye on the Consumer Confidence numbers and the Labor JOLTS report at mid-morning – more mood-changers in the wings…

Write when you, etc…


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George Ure
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31 thoughts on “Housing: An Upside Surprise?”

  1. Welcome to the 21st Century
    New Weapons of War – Targeted Diseases

    ” ‘Bio-Atomic Bombs’
    On Nov. 10, 2017, the People’s Liberation Army newspaper published an article titled “How Genetic Weapons Affect Future Wars,” saying that the 21st century has entered the era of genetic weapons.

    The military article emphasized the advantages of a genetic weapon: “Since a genetic weapon is a new virus ‘cut’ with a genetic code known only to the designer, it is difficult for the opposite to decipher and develop a new vaccine against it in time.”

    … “As long as a breakthrough in the genetic code is found, it will be easy to transform them into ‘bio-atomic bombs’ with great destructive power to achieve military purposes without using a single soldier,” it said.”


  2. – S&P Case-Shiller US National Composite home price index increased by 0.7% in June. The index remains just 0.02% off its all-time peak exactly a year ago. You know the Federal Reserve has to of seen this..,
    – Oil is up 15% in July., with the steady increase in diesel prices to match. This ‘should’ help to fuel [ see what I did there?] an increase in inflation. But then, the stock market has ignored the impact of inflation, even with the Fed’s continuously raising interest rates, my Aggregate has climbed over 7,000 points since January’s low. The market expects an increase in the annual core PCE inflation rate to tick up to 4.2% from 4.1% They are expecting an increase in inflation., but are also expecting that Powell won’t raise rates to continue the fight. [ Is an inflation rate of 2.0 to 2.5 possible anymore more? Is that a target that can no longer be maintained?]
    – Consumer Confidence has dropped as the Summer fun-in-the-sun starts to wane and the reality of ‘here comes Winter’, starts to take hold.
    – I am slightly amazed at how the markets have simply ignored these numbers and keep pushing an already over-priced market even higher. The S&P500 is back over it’s 50DMA as of this morning.
    – I guess I missed the memo., or was cut out of the info-loop., as a lot of what is going on does not make any sense, at all., look at the bond market – lots of contradictory signals.
    The consensus on whether we will enter a recession is now below a 20% probability. With two of the large trading houses stating they believe we will avoid a recession altogether. But Buffet is betting we will., by the billions of $ .
    I do not see what they see., I see a full blown recession with a very good chance of a deflationary-cycle coming right around the corner., and if I wasn’t having so much fun and doing so well with my lunch-money account – I would, absolutely go isolationist and start laying claymores. [ Those are still illegal to own.., right? ]

  3. Spokesman for the UAW said yesterday that in their new contract they want a 46% wage increase and a 36 hour work week.
    Ford is already losing money on half of their cars they are producing.., think they can survive long with a 46% increase in labor costs ? ahh.., nope!

    • Talked to a GM union rep the other day. WRT this, he said: “Of course we’re not going to get 46%, but you have to ‘ask high’ if you want room for negotiations.”

      Did you notice the “software issue” at Toyota? The company says it’s definitely not a hack — Sure looks to me like that is a perfunctory statement, and of somewhat less than certain truth…

      • LOL I get the ask for more if you want less LOL LOL
        when I was a kid if we wanted to ask dad if we could get a dollar we would always ask for ten.. the gas and oil industry does this now..
        every time they decide to raise their prices .they always raise fuel prices so high.. that it hurts horribly .. then they lower it down to a point that is maybe five percent or ten percent more that what it was..you feel the relief and they still raised their prices up five to ten percent.. lately its at the twenty percent at a shot level LOL LOL.
        around the wastelands.. NO company is giving raises.. the people at the department stores and pharmacies have already been told not to expect any increase in wages this year.. but they were told that benefits for the full time employees are going to take a cut.. and they are not hiring as many part time or seasonal as they use to.. heck they have christmas items out for sale already.. walmart and others is trying to get the xmas gift rush on.. by stock piling xmas gift ideas and stuff..
        one nurse at the local hospital said that everyone was up in arms.. they increased her work level six times.. now that isn’t to shocking healthcare workers is always short shifted for employees and long hours.. heck after I had to retire I was on the schedule for five years .. ( we called them ghost aides..) I always said you just need some blow up dolls.. put scrubs on them and your fully staffed.. just call them nurses.. the desk anchors LOL LOL
        gotta keep staffing low on the bottom side so more perks can be offered to the topside to get quality execs LOL LOL LOL

  4. Nice little surprise this morning. Sitting at my back door was a box of 48, Ace Hardware Shop Duty, 130 volt, heavy filament, 60 watt bulbs. [ Didn’t know they made such a thing.] With a note saying – “Thanks again, so much !” Signed, ‘Martha’. Martha is the Crazy Chicken Lady that we get our chicken and duck eggs from, and a couple of fat and plump chickens, every couple of weeks. I helped save her mini goats from a pack of coyotes that were overly-determined to wreak havoc on them. She is also one of my group of local “Trade Partners”. Interesting lady. Masters in Philosophy, packs a Colt Python where ever she goes and is very close to being a complete hermit. Wasn’t for a couple of friends and our trade group I think she would never leave her secluded “ranch/farm”.
    That box of bulbs should last us for the rest of our lives., as we blow maybe one bulb a year around here. Can’t even remember that last time I changed a light bulb. And all of our reading lamps are LED. So.., we are set in that category.
    Nice to have a few trade-partners…..,

    • Illegal contraband. 60w 130v means about 54w@mains voltage. Typical for “rough service” or “extra long life” bulbs. They’re not bright enough for much of anything, but they are irreplaceable as brood lamps, for raising fowl, and were I you I’d keep at least a few of them tucked away for this purpose…

      • just wait till you have to hide your propane gas grill because it will be illegal to use ….

      • Lol lol lol
        if congress asked a federal agency director..the answer would be..
        I am not familiar with that particular sction. I will have to go visit with my staff and read what reports we have and get back with you.. ( redacted version of the answer )

  5. Toyota announced the temporary suspension of operations in all 14 of its manufacturing plants in Japan due to a system malfunction.
    The issue did not seem to stem from a cyberattack said a company spokesperson.
    Toyota stated that the system glitch had impacted all 28 assembly lines in all 14 of their manufacturing plants and said it was not clear when they would be back up and running. The glitch means that around one-third of the company’s global production was out of operation.
    Hhhmmm.., all 14 plants and 28 assembly lines are interlinked ? Why would you do that? Inventory control?

  6. “This means prices are going up WAY FASTER than the Fed would like to see.”

    BRICS decides to quit accepting the US Dollar Pound and Euro in January.. what would that do to the USA and europe.. I read one report a week or so ago that said that was what they were planning..
    then when we did our last great brew haha.. ten more countries signed up for the BRIC’s..







    will it happen.. who knows.. but it is scary.. especially since china and russia have signed agreements with every country that we have Helped .. ????? in the past.. and every country that we get our products from..
    Now this last one bothers me.. they are already getting two bucks a cookie from the manufacturer.. and if you buy it from one company it is four dollars a cookie..
    YUP you order it from NYC.. they in turn order it from Mexico.. now you can buy it direct from Mexico at a nickel a cookie.. but if they join brics we are screwed since the dollar has no value except that they say it has value…


  7. I thought that the market would have an up day.., I did not expect it to be a ‘major’ up-day !
    The S&P500 blew through their 50 Day MA and is touching their 30 Day.., up 1.25%.., I got out when it just kissed the 30 day – lost a couple of bucks doing that, I’m sure., but I got nervous.., kept looking for a turning-point. But I am up 12% for the day – no complaints.
    Will be watching the close, closely..,
    The Dow is up over 200., NASDAQ up over 200., even the Russell is up over 1.4% – BitCoin is up over 7% – I did not see any of that coming. There appears to be no fear, or pricing-in the chance of another rate hike by The Fed. At least, not today.

  8. Who REALLY invented the ‘vacuum tube’? Fleming is credited with adding the second element to a light bulb, to create the ‘diode’. DeForest is credited with adding the third element… the grid… to control the electron flow and create an amplifier. But both based their inventions on what I now call the ‘Edison Monode’…. the hot filament light bulb. Edison actually discovered the ‘Edison Effect’ of current flow in a vacuum in his light bulbs.

    So now the Bidenista regime has banned the sale of the ‘Edison Monode’. And the war in Ukraine has literally destroyed the last areas of vacuum tube production from Ukraine and Russia. If you are restoring old tube gear, George, all the tube testers in the shop won’t matter if you cannot get your ‘vacuum valves’ anymore.

    Got an IC-7300? …before the fine-pitch semiconductors are gone, too? We will soon be whistling Morse around a campfire.

  9. The people at Money.com claim since last summer some house buyers lost about 14% of purchasing power because of higher interest rates.

    In the buyer column the UAW as example is demanding a 46% pay hike. The UAW member will have 46% more purchasing all the way around allowing the house price scale to slide up.

    What did the UPS recently achieve? The people are going to buy and higher rates won’t stop them.

    “Homebuyers’ purchasing power is rapidly slipping away as mortgage rates continue creeping up, according to a new analysis. In fact, someone with a $3,000 monthly budget can now only afford a $429,000 home compared to a $500,000 one a year ago.”


  10. sorry about the rant last night george. im on to ponder things in quiet for a while..

    what i know is, the theroy is sound. the premis is true.

    to the outside world it would apear as insanity. however there is much proof, real tangible proof and evidence that the language of creatiok speaks of the future. no matter what enviroment. be it the mountains, the beach or the desert.

    it is most certainly not the path for everyone. i have giant moments of Aha! and at other times im completely baffeled at my misunderstanding of reading it. lol. it is always my misunderstaning or mis interpritation of it that is wrong. not the language of creation or tje ‘angels’ that are speaking it.

    the lanuguage of creation is truth in its purest form. every language on the planet finds its root in the language of creation. that much i know is fact. everything from arimaic to pigme is a veriation dialect or imitation of the language of creation. even the language of the wind and language of the moon is a veriation dialect or imatation of the language of creation. because the language of creation gives all things life and form to their verying degrees.

    this much i know is true. i know many facets of it and the topology.

    layer 1) im driving ore trains for a mining outfit to a refinery. (most of the people in the world operates at this funtional layer)
    layer 2) im working in a mathmatical sequence of master numbers and numerological functions.
    layer 3) im motion as a compas, and cog wheel within time along a path structured as the infinty symbol.
    layer 4) im motion moving spirit and light (phosphate alchemy symbol of spirit and light) in the deep soil of night, to the Bayer Refinery which their symbol is the circle of life and the 4 corners tribal symbol.
    layer 5) im developing and mastering psychic powers, mastering empathy and mastering charisma.
    layer 6)im working in the relm enoch worked within.
    layer 7) im in motion within a real life comprehensive merkabah. eagle facing north, ox facing east, lion facing west, human (me) facing south. with the trone of one by one centered.

    all 7 layers are present as one thing in motion, for a moment in time. that is how the language of creation works on a topology.

    ya see its not just about winning the powerball and the money and shouting out, Yo G! im out here on the lake in my 40 foot donzie boat with a bunch of big tittie hotties. which is a great idea!

    to me its more about correctly understand the sorce language of all languages, the core code of reality and when i win, i see results of that understanding as correct. but winning a jackpot lottery is only one avenue of testing my correct undrerstanding and comphrensive read of the language of creation.

    because once that is understood and fully conceptualized? you can sing a tree to form itself into a cozy home and end world hunger with a word. my premis is, you could speak a single word in the language of creation and the entire world would transform into a lavish garden over night.

    i have considered i may never fully understand the language of creation. but it wont be for a lack of effort on my part and the language of creations effort. because as i seek to learn it, it seeks to teach me its ways. that much is most certain. the laguage of creation craves dialog. and shows me example after example of it seeking to communicate with me.

    many times i have sat thinking fuck man, i have no idea what you are saying. then an aha! moment happens and i know paperclip, hair tie, screw plus a bottle cap = hot date eating sushi with a beautiful brunnette in leggings thursday next week. got it! hahaha then creation replys: Duh! haha

    i ask myself what does Biden represent within the 7 topoligy. not just layer one. but within all layers or expressions of the 7 layer topology. because there is 7 layers to heaven and 7 layers to the toplogy of creation. joe biden is a symbol. not just a person. or a president. but a symbol as well.

    that is it. english language, pigme speek, horses winining, cows and their mooing, the moon, the sun, the lottery are all expressions of a core mathmatical sequential language of creation. they are dialect epressions.

    and i know something as simple as taking a rock and moving it from one side of the street to another can later create an F5 tonrnado. hmmmm. so the jedi tell me….

    i found a sea urchen on the ground last night. still wet and smelling of salt water ocean. im 7007 feet above sea level and find a sea urchin from the ocean laying on the ground in the dirt. i have no idea what that means. and often times i need to take a step back. because im constantly revising, cross checking and adjusting the database of my understanding of the language of creation in the background of my mind.

    maybe one day i will grow up and be an old man sitting on my portal phone, bitching about politics online.

    until then, im trying to understand the bigger picture. lol

    see ya man

  11. I hear a lot of talk about manufacturing slowing, but we aren’t seeing it at the office. Typically mid-summer gets slow, but that didn’t happen this year.
    The housing figures look stronger than I would have expected as well. So, it doesn’t look like the Fed can get off the brake pedal, yet. Bank CD rates and broker money markets are looking good for the first time in a long stretch. I have moved money to take advantage. I expect pressure on equities to increase for the immediate future.
    The hyperinflation for durable goods is slowing, at least for cash buyers. Still not seeing any serious deflation. Labor Day sales aren’t real impressive so far. I bought a shirt and back-ordered some pants with a modest discount. This is not a car-trade year.
    Netflix is shutting down it’s DVD business at the end of next month. Sorry to see it go. Added a movie channel to Amazon video.
    Still paring down comm’s and subscriptions. I only have one high dollar newsletter I still buy, and I am ready to bail on it. I am still doing a couple of Zinnio mags. Those are reasonably priced.
    I’m afraid I’m glad Andy didn’t get his severance package. The man can turn a trip to the convenience store into a serial episode adventure.
    Time to go ride a bit.

  12. I peg current inflation at somewhere between 2.5 and 2.8 percent per month.

    ISTM someone would have to take the initiative to do a “John Williams” on housing data for the Case-Shiller numbers to have any actual meaning.

    • I second the motion for an RFK/Gabbard ticket, although Vivek in there someplace would also be interesting.

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