One of the things long-distance sailors learn is that the ocean doesn’t necessarily run on a convenient clock.
Rogue waves are the extreme example. They are real, they statistically cluster under certain conditions, and modern systems are getting better at identifying when the risk environment is right.
But there isn’t a nice little mechanical cycle telling you:
“Big one arrives Tuesday at 2:37.”
Which raises an interesting economic question.
What if the great economic “long waves” work the same way?
Instead of a giant hidden clock somewhere under capitalism, perhaps what we call a long wave is an emergent statistical pattern created when technology, population movement, resource discovery, financing, infrastructure, government policy and regional growth cycles begin stacking on top of one another.
That’s the subject of today’s 29-page Peoplenomics research paper — along with the morning ChartPack. The charts remain broadly constructive into the Labor Day window, although the historical comparisons are getting sufficiently interesting that we’re keeping both eyes open. Today’s subscriber column sets up the argument by comparing economic-cycle behavior with the known mechanics of ocean rogue waves.
Then our Over-the-Horizon software did something interesting.
The latest run suddenly concentrated its strongest temporal pressure in late September, with a mechanical peak around September 26.
Before anyone circles the date in red: we are NOT promoting September 26 as a prediction.
Quite the opposite.
The result is sitting under a diagnostic/audit hold because when horizon software suddenly moves a ridge, the first question should always be:
Did the future move — or did the math?
That’s what real forecasting research ought to look like.
Find the signal. Then try like hell to kill it.
Today’s Peoplenomics has the full paper, ChartPack, and complete OTH run for subscribers.
Interesting morning. Very interesting September.
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Here’s a great recipe.. stuffed bell peppers..
the part most people miss:
Hungarian sweet peppers..but you can use whatever pepper you like…
cook the rice in chicken broth. ( you can do beef to your preference)
sauce vegetables onions and carrots until the carrots are softened…( your choice of veggies is what you like its your dish
assemble the sauce.. blanch umm two large tomatoes.. ( just to remove the skins..)then dice them up and sauce them in olive oil for a couple minutes about a half cup of olive oil.. ( one glurp this step is a little flexible its stuffed peppers..and you can use pure butter to and a splash of olive oil the splash of olive oil keeps the butter from turning brown…)
mix the tomatoes and chicken broth base ..stuff the peppers ..( I clean out the peppers cut off the tops… tgen put the tops back on after stuffing and use tooth picks to secure the tops in place)
lay the peppers on their sides..cover them with the tomatoes chicken broth base sauce and bake at 400 degrees for about an hour ..serve the stuffed pepper with a little of the sauce and a dollop of sour cream..
then combine the ingredients in a bowl stuff the peppers..