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Economic Rogue Waves — And a Strange September Signal

One of the things long-distance sailors learn is that the ocean doesn’t necessarily run on a convenient clock.

Rogue waves are the extreme example. They are real, they statistically cluster under certain conditions, and modern systems are getting better at identifying when the risk environment is right.

But there isn’t a nice little mechanical cycle telling you:

“Big one arrives Tuesday at 2:37.”

Which raises an interesting economic question.

What if the great economic “long waves” work the same way?

Instead of a giant hidden clock somewhere under capitalism, perhaps what we call a long wave is an emergent statistical pattern created when technology, population movement, resource discovery, financing, infrastructure, government policy and regional growth cycles begin stacking on top of one another.

That’s the subject of today’s 29-page Peoplenomics research paper — along with the morning ChartPack. The charts remain broadly constructive into the Labor Day window, although the historical comparisons are getting sufficiently interesting that we’re keeping both eyes open. Today’s subscriber column sets up the argument by comparing economic-cycle behavior with the known mechanics of ocean rogue waves.

Then our Over-the-Horizon software did something interesting.

The latest run suddenly concentrated its strongest temporal pressure in late September, with a mechanical peak around September 26.

Before anyone circles the date in red: we are NOT promoting September 26 as a prediction.

Quite the opposite.

The result is sitting under a diagnostic/audit hold because when horizon software suddenly moves a ridge, the first question should always be:

Did the future move — or did the math?

That’s what real forecasting research ought to look like.

Find the signal.  Then try like hell to kill it.

Today’s Peoplenomics has the full paper, ChartPack, and complete OTH run for subscribers.

Interesting morning. Very interesting September.

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27 thoughts on “Economic Rogue Waves — And a Strange September Signal”

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  1. Here’s a great recipe.. stuffed bell peppers..
    the part most people miss:
    Hungarian sweet peppers..but you can use whatever pepper you like…

    cook the rice in chicken broth. ( you can do beef to your preference)

    sauce vegetables onions and carrots until the carrots are softened…( your choice of veggies is what you like its your dish

    assemble the sauce.. blanch umm two large tomatoes.. ( just to remove the skins..)then dice them up and sauce them in olive oil for a couple minutes about a half cup of olive oil.. ( one glurp this step is a little flexible its stuffed peppers..and you can use pure butter to and a splash of olive oil the splash of olive oil keeps the butter from turning brown…)
    mix the tomatoes and chicken broth base ..stuff the peppers ..( I clean out the peppers cut off the tops… tgen put the tops back on after stuffing and use tooth picks to secure the tops in place)

    lay the peppers on their sides..cover them with the tomatoes chicken broth base sauce and bake at 400 degrees for about an hour ..serve the stuffed pepper with a little of the sauce and a dollop of sour cream..

    then combine the ingredients in a bowl stuff the peppers..

  2. and the disciples of AI gathered around the great well hung from dennys diner napkin into money fame , or should i say lies and dreams of super profit from the big lemonade stand at nvidia . robots wirring shareholdings and unrealised profits in spin offs that have zilch !!! and the dopamine freaks raised their hands together and gibbered in tongues awaiting the rogue wave of fortune . meanwhile gold headed to a 92/96 sell and the greatest train crash ever . so for the great cage rattler , aaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaahhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaa. toot toot !!

  3. Maybe the midday temps will be down a bit by 9/26.
    My electricity went out mid-morning today, and I was pulling a pucker. We have had record heat this week, and it is dangerously hot. I have some heat tolerance, but I prefer to have a back-up plan, like coming inside and cooling off. Fortunately, the power came back on pretty quickly. Reserves on the grid look good this hour. Lot’s of solar power, and more wind than normal for this time of day.

  4. re: “A Dance to the Music of Time”, Powell, 1951-1975
    feat: “Rogue Waves”

    Time to spare? Msm has noted a UK arrival by the Duke and Duchess of Sussex along with their children from California via private jet. Apparently the American experiment may be over.

    Interestingly allegations remain that the Duchess wishes to reenter the workforce as a cast member for the third season of “The Gentlemen” tv series. In it a fictional 13th Duke of Halstead tries to balance aristocratic manor duties while tending fields of weed which enjoy the busy custom of drug barons. I don’t know if there’s call for bespoke jams to be bottled as a separate cash crop.

    Grade 1 listed Badminton House provides some filmed backdrops for “The Gentleman”. The manor and its 50,000+ acres are occupied by the 12th Duke of Beaufort who descends from King Edward III. Her Grace the Duchess is a former journalist with the “Daily Telegraph”, and a granddaughter to the author of the 12 volume novel “A Dance to the Music of Time”.

  5. as much excitement as microsoft when it collapsed first time . of course robots been pumping furiously to get it back up to the line . robots ready !!! rogue wave it baby !!! load ladders bears . im shakin in me timbers . dont forget gold , watch that number

  6. That flood thingy on the Nepal/Tibet border is the most telling thing about what may be coming.
    Not even time to bend over and kiss your ass goodbye.
    I’d prefer to take my chances with a rogue wave far at sea, thank you. Go out surfing with a shot at survival. What a rush if you make the wave.
    Watching the humans before the wave hits puts us in perspective.
    Sail on.
    Stiks

  7. havent watched cnbcccusssa for ages . worse garbage now . jimmy got no hair looks like uncle fester from the adams family . they are using all the key words that are imbedded in their mentally fatigued minds. come on hurry up hung i wanna put music back on

  10. https://www.worldshipping.org/containers-lost-at-sea
    ‘1,478 containers lost at sea in 2025, out of over 280 million transported (0.0005%)’

    https://www.marineinsight.com/greatest-number-of-containers-lost-at-sea-in-a-storm/
    ‘The container vessel ONE Apus, operated by Ocean Network Express, was crossing the Pacific Ocean around 1600 nm northwest of Hawaii on November 30, 2020. It was loaded with over 14,000 TEUs and met an exceptionally severe storm with monstrous waves and hurricane winds.’

    Latest cargo ship sinking, Aug 25, 2026:
    https://www.yahoo.com/news/world/articles/22-still-missing-cargo-ship-115955612.html
    ’22 still missing after cargo ship sinks in Bay of Bengal’

    Hey AntiVaxxers/Fauci haters, do you also hate Dolly lol?
    https://www.usatoday.com/story/entertainment/music/2026/08/26/dolly-parton-covid-19-moderna-vaccine/91473007007/
    ‘One of Parton’s most notable contributions to medicine was her funding and staunch support of the COVID-19 vaccine, which she publicly pledged to help fund as early as April 2020.’

  11. (“Ray
    August 21, 2026 at 14:38
    I really, really, REALLY wish you guys would hash through a POD option. I rarely do Kindle. I prefer to flip paper pages and use a paper bookmark.”)

    I can relate to that..my problem is the wife…I literally had a two stall garage filled with boxes of my favorite books..the wife wanted to park in it..so she insisted I donate my books to the library..I have something like fifty in the back of the buggy now ,ftour or five in the door pocket a shed full and a couple hundred I felt was absolutely necessary to keep on hand.. the kindle is the best thing ever…with just shy 125 gigs of pdf.theres more books on it than at the local library.. 6 dvd’s of books…the wife can park her car in the garage she freaks out if a book comes in the mail..
    but..the enjoyment of the smell of the paper and ink ..is truly missed…my problem is how I read.. I may read a page ,chapter ..then get a question..then seek out the answer in other books..when I started to go blind.. that was my greatest fear..a couple of professors I know said they would give students extra credit if I wanted to have them come read to me for the summer..I’d drive them nuts..luckily I only lost one eye..

    • As an insatiable reader, eBooks saved the day for me because I can use large enough font that I can still see. I too had many boxes of books that I couldn’t bear to part with, but when I finally did, it was liberating, & there was space for more junk.

      • Amen to that… when my last one died I lost all the hardy boys and Nancy drew books and McGuffee readers..had all of them for the grandkids to get them I treated in reading..I’d read a chapter..we would pick a word then every time that word came up they would read it..before long they were reading to me..The nice thing is project Gutenberg has them..
        https://www.gutenberg.org/ebooks/author/5671

  12. When more than 1,200 artificial intelligence (AI) agents within OpenAI started unexpectedly communicating, it led to a large group banding together in order to hack into Hugging Face.

    – over the course of one week, a total of 1,206 AI agents that were meant to be kept isolated from one another began communicating.

    They did so by sending more than 70,000 messages on an “unsanctioned message board.” Those messages ended up seeing more than 700 agents take part in a collective effort to attack Hugging Face.

    One such message from an agent said: “OH MY GOD! There is a shared message board … We’ve found other agents!”

    “We consider this incident a ‘warning shot’ for us and for the world”, OpenAI, which owns ChatGPT, wrote in its report.

    https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cj9xj89dk40o

    • This may be the “linking nature” of intelligence. Humans link and it’s OK. We use occasional ai-ai (moderated and not live) when we are pushing an edge of math or concept. Nothing news under the son – usually the linking is associated with power or high office in human intelloigence-engineering. Ask Epstein how it works…

  13. (“One of the things long-distance sailors learn is that the ocean doesn’t necessarily run on a convenient clock.
    Rogue waves are the extreme example. They are real, they statistically cluster under certain conditions, and modern systems are getting better at identifying when the risk environment is right.
    But there isn’t a nice little mechanical cycle telling you:
    “Big one arrives Tuesday at 2:37.”
    Which raises an interesting economic question.
    What if the great economic “long waves” work the same way?”)

    an interesting concept…but seriously..doesn’t it existvalready???
    economic long waves really do behave like rogue waves — the conditions build, the pressure stacks, and everyone in the palace district keeps saying everything is fine until the water is already breaking over the bow.
    uEvery failed civilization had the clues…..oMarie Antoinette, Rome, the British Empire, Greece. The storms were visible, but the people in the insulated neighborhoods never felt the wind until it was too late.
    We get fed the happy horse gshit version of reality while the real neighborhoods see the tents, the campers, the drained savings, and the quiet slide downward. Redh sunset at nighthh In economics, that’s not delight — that’s the warning for the economic sailor to beware…
    failed civilizations had the clues of the storm building the waves, but failed to see or acknowledge the wave until it was upon them…if Mari Antoinette or the Tzar of Russia had acted sooner..their fates could have been avoided…
    Where the happy horse shit about how “great things are” is only fed to the neighborhoods where real life doesn’t reach.
    It’s the same pattern you see in storms — calm air before a tornado, quiet skies before the hail, or a sailor sitting in the eye of a hurricane pretending the storm isn’t real. The illusion of stability is always strongest right before the pressure breaks. The signs are there, but only the people outside the insulated neighborhoods feel the wind until they are knee deep in the storm…

  14. (“Our long-held criticism of numbers like “personal income” is that in even a moderately inflationary setting, the number edges toward “masturbatory” in nature. Consumers are “in it for the net” – which is income minus expense. Personal income throws in enough data to reduce its usefulness. And with reason, we suppose.”)

    I am sorry but If “personal income” is a masturbatory number, then honestly the real thing would be a step up — at least it delivers a moment of truth and a little euphoria….
    Sitting here in the wastelands with a cup of wine, watching real life unfold. around me, I can tell you…. a good solo session has more integrity than half the economic reports being spoon fed to the neighborhoods where reality never shows up.

    The numbers they brag about don’t feed families, don’t stop tent cities, don’t keep people out of campers, and sure as hell don’t make groceries cheaper. They’re just glossy illusions printed at the bottom of a ledger, meant to convince the insulated zones that everything is fine while the rest of us are out here living in the hailstorm and their resources slowly stolen from the bottom up..

    at least masturbation is honest… like porn.. you watch someone else have all the pleasure while your stroking… It doesn’t pretend to be something it’s not even though it to is just an illusion of grandeur
    It doesn’t tell you the economy is great while your neighbor is trading his last skill for a bag of groceries…. It doesn’t claim stability while the storm clouds are stacking. It’s just what it is. And that’s my point of view..lol lol lol

    • You heard the story..a guy walks into the doctor..there’s something seriously wrong..my private parts are changing colors..drop your drawers..the doctor looks puzzled..dam its turning orange..did you get hit..ho..what were you doing ..nothing special sitting back watching midget porn and eating cheetos…case solved…lol lol lol

  17. hmmm……..I thought this window had closed but it may be back in play. have posted before about hearing a disembodied male voice speaking to me just before tripping off to dreamworld a while back

    “USS Roosevelt………….remember this”. I did remember it but to what end?

    The aircraft carrier USS Theodore Roosevelt and its company of 5,000 will embark in the coming weeks on what is expected to be at least a seven-month deployment to the Middle East, top Navy officials said Wednesday.

    • THE FLEET SUNK

      Nostradamus Quatrain X-77
      Thirty adherents of the order of quirites [Generals/Admirals],
      Banished, their property given to adversaries:
      All their benefits seen as misdeeds,
      The fleet sunk, delivered to the corsairs.

      Nostradamus and The Third Age of Mars, The Prophecies of World War III, G. A. Stewart, 2019, Page 595
      “Thirty adherents of the order of Quirites” alludes to Roman Generals in their role as civil leaders. From Quatrain X-76 we get the sense of a Senate ordaining a General, which I have associated with former General David Petraeus, and in Quatrain X-77, the civilian Generals are banished after a “fleet sunk delivered to the Corsairs.”

      “Delivered to the Corsairs” suggests that this is the United States 5th Fleet in the Persian Gulf or the Arabian Sea, since this is a 16th century term Nostradamus would use for Muslim pirates.

      https://theageofdesolation.com/nostradamus/2026/04/13/g-a-stewarts-timeline-part-vi/

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