2021 Annual Outlook

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We introduce a new term into the economic lexicon this year:  Pandemnomics. It’s axiomatic that eras in economics are driven by events.  Past examples include the “Energy Crisis” the “Tech Wreck,” and 10-years back, a massive “Housing Bubble.”

The task this week it to build a reasonable outlook for 2021 that uses some “logic glue” to paste up a model of how near-term future could work out,

First, though, a few thinking points from headlines and then a look at our ChartPack.

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46 thoughts on “2021 Annual Outlook”

  1. “Surely, they can’t be so stupid as to believe the public can’t see through this partisan sell-out.”

    I totally love a Person with and OPTIMISTIC point of view…. LOL

    • Isn’t it sad that all of this is just “chit-chat” — because “people are people” and the implications speak volumes.

      • So True Choices..
        but..
        then there really isn’t much any of us can do.. My wife tells me.. your opinion is your opinion and no body cares more about your opinion than you do.. It doesn’t make a difference.. in most cases just gets your personal blood pressure pumped up.. People have the herd mentality.. they will flow along with what ever is decided for them.. mostly because when it comes to policy and leadership they know that those in power could care less about their needs.. it changed from the united we stand .. to a stand for them.. even in the industrial world.. the industrial leaders of my fathers era.. the boss was family.. the plant was home.. today most industry leaders could care less about their local economy.. it has become the economy of me.. the benefits are distributed among the top ten percent of the company and industry has moved to the part time labor force..where before the benefits were distributed among everyone if there were bonuses to be given it was split between the whole crew.. ceo’s cared about the employee’s most don’t even know the lady that cleans the place name.. if they fell in the parking lot they probably wouldn’t even get up and take a look..
        There is one way designed for us to make changes..That is in Voting.. and unfortunately the vast majority of the people don’t believe in its process enough anymore to do just that or that their voted in representatives are there to represent them or their needs. Just like their employers people believe that the representatives are there solely for the big guy and that the congressman in office is unreachable for their needs. the representatives are disconnected they live in a world of thousand dollar bottles of wine and in neighborhoods where the sight of someone having to relieve themselves on the sidewalk or back alley doesn’t exist.. its caviar and duck under glass… the sights and the images just a fragment of something they might have heard..
        Our countries infrastructure lies in near ruins.. so bad that it would take a great deal of time and money to fix it.. yet we send well over eighty percent of your yearly budget to another country to fix theirs because we destroyed it so that someone that isn’t even a citizen or pays taxes could get more of something he doesn’t really need..Mosts countries see us as the great evil.. we are mocked and scorned for our behaviors..

        Of course this year we had record numbers out voting for the presidential choice this year.. in some places more than they have on the rosters… Unfortunately on the other policies that affect us in general state wide.. those voter numbers were actually down in some places and average turnout in others…

    • Hey George

      Ure old friend clif has been taken down.

      Twitter account gone, YT channel, vids deleted, all content gone…

      Who’d he is off this time…

      • no telling – but there are ethical reasons not to make facemonkeys and twitboxer rich. We may have disagreements in some areas, but on things like censorship in an allegedly “free country” and basics of reality not so much.
        Try looking and paler and report back?

      • Wow- Clif still has a Gab page but doesn’t appear to have posted since October, which is around the time his Twitter account was reinstated. Clif has been booted off Twitter before. The last time I looked, he seemed to be pushing the election fraud narrative really hard. Alternately, if he is involved in a lawsuit, that would explain the reduction in public exposure. Clif has been a tireless proponent of free speech.

  2. ” (think home bug bombs) ”

    Absolutely.. its all MADE WHERE again….. if they can effectively change the codes in the chips that go into our defense missile guidance systems or turn on every camera in the USA at one time or have full access to the cloud.. control our banking information through the programs they create etc etc etc……… I think they could probably disperse a few hundred million units in bug bombs and not even have to pay for them… … LOL

    • Most that you complain about is brought about by each individual’s personal cumulative choices, always will be like that!!) Since most folks lack in their thinking ability since birth, the bad consequences of those facts are very lively demonstrated on a daily basis. IMHO, of course.

      P.s. It cannot be cheap enough — and now PRC is our problem ?! WTF?

  3. There’s another “out-of-left-field” event that may impact the World late this next year. Over at Suspicious 0bservers this morning Ben reported that it’s been reported that the Galactic Wave marches on through our solar system. With Pluto’s magnetic field has collapsing due to the Galactic Wave passing over it plus that small planet losing a load of its thin atmosphere as a result now Neptune’s dark spot, a constant storm that has existed for a long time similar to Jupiter’s, has actually reversed course on that planet. Something that wouldn’t happen without some significant external influence. An Earthly analogy would be Atlantic hurricanes reversing their course and moving DOWN the East Coast rather than up or turning and slamming into Africa. Interestingly the frequency of the Galactic Wave seems to match in with our 12,000+ year cataclysmic cycle here on our planet.
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aPa9l9Hvlw0
    Could this be the one and only cure for the Socialist Democrats?

  4. What follows contains much Politically Incorrect thinking, and if you’re easily upset, then DEL & move on, and don’t read this. It will only confuse and hurt you.

    Ok… We alone now? Good.

    “Nobody wants war.” It is often said, but we get lots of wars anyway. So the reasonable conclusion is that people WANT a good war now and then — they just can’t say so out loud.

    There are many benefits to war.

    War stims technological advancement at a rapid pace , “disregard the financial cost — for our very survival, we need THIS new weapon RIGHT NOW!!”

    War reduces the surplus population.

    War displaces and repurposes money on an emergency imperative basis that can’t be resisted. Whenever money must quickly relocate on a dire existential emergency basis, large profits can be made.

    War unites a People emotionally and politically. Smart and evil politicians harness and direct this to their vast benefit. “Bumper-sticker motto thinking” has appeal.

    Frequent or continuous low-level war trains new soldiers in a completely real life-and-death situation. MUCH better than ANY simulation exercise, where it’s considered bad form to kill off your own poorly performing or incompetent soldiers. Perhaps the value of the Endless Sandbox War(s) is the on-going training of a cadre of battle-hardened troops. Don’t kid yourself — this element appeals to some top commanders with stars on their suits as a ugly but handy truth.

    War creates new business to re-build when it ends. Good for lumber sales and building supplies and workers.

    Am I in favor of war? Of course not. That’s BadThink. Been to one myself, and didn’t enjoy it much. I was strengthened and disciplined by it — which has been a good side effect over the many years since.

    Nobody wants war.

    73

      • Amen George.. just had to order some belts and buckles LOL… for a decent price.. I might add..

        “War creates new business to re-build when it ends. Good for lumber sales and building supplies and workers.”

        The downside this time.. is the USA hasn’t really felt the affects of war.. this time I think WAR will be on our turf.. the other countries don’t want to have their homes and neighborhoods blasted to bits.. their family members killed the women raped and their cities pillaged and raw materials stolen for some idiots gain..
        If anyone has been paying attention ..this time around.. these smaller countries have been positioning themselves just like our alliances with the larger countries to protect them from wars.. So any war this time if some joker con’s America to jump in and destroy so some idiot can gain control.( that he could have had if he negotiated for those materials like a businessman) will bring it down upon us from those larger countries sworn to protect them…. the other thing.. is we let ourselves be conned into moving our industry out of our borders the last assessment I had read said five to ten years to retool america.. our grid.. all of our replacement parts come from china.. even the scrap materials are sent to them to be refurbished..and they have a ten year wait already on many parts…. everything comes from someplace else.. almost sixty percent of our food supplies have to be imported with covid the supply chains have all been broken.. store managers cannot give you a predicted date that they will receive supplies ordered.. and our govt.. has opened the borders to refugee’s where even the enemies said that they were planning to use that avenue as the trojan horse to get their warriors implanted in the USA population.. ( do you think they were lying.. I doubt they were…)
        I see one coming.. and I don’t want to see one coming.. population reduction everything WH said.. a dark reality..
        of an unknown future..

  5. Thou hast scrivened thusly:
    [quote]
    As we have been arguing for years: When machines come along that displace workers the machines should pay a “worker equivalent tax” to offset the cost to society of unemployed people who would (otherwise) have had jobs now held by machines.
    It has been this simple swindle that accounts for what more people aren’t fabulously wealthy, since a Universal Basic Income could be fully paid-for and more if the human job-killers paid a fair tax rate.”
    [end quote]

    There is a marvelous way to harness this to benefit all. It’s called Capitalism.

    Attend:

    Suppose you want to build an aluminum beverage can-making factory. Suppose you decide to largely robotocize it.

    In a can plant, there are many machines, doing many different functions — most of them pretty simple and very fast.

    Traditionally, you would go secure funding from investment bankers or sell some stock and run the whole funding project yourself, perhaps with a management team.

    One position is that any robots need to be income-taxed (for their productivity of value added) just as if they were human factory workers.

    But suppose:
    Instead of Big-Shot Finance guys, buying (funding) dozens of machines, why not encourage individual humans to “own” a producing machine, and receive their R.O.I. on throughput to the manufacturing line. A typical beverage can internal spray-coating machine costs about $50,000, and can coat the insides of many thousands of can a day. The “owner” — one guy — gets paid based on his machine’s throughput. And he gets taxed on that income.

    Many people own many machines on a typical factory floor, and the production is controlled by computers which collect the performance data on the various machines as things are.

    The Plant Manager – Owner coordinates the whole thing, and the workers own the machines and robots as investors in the plant’s capabilities.

    And “Sam” gets his cut.

    Happiness.

    • Very interesting concept, but isn’t that the premise behind owning stock in a profitable manufacturing company? You pay income taxes on the dividends you receive from XYZ manufacturing.

      • Mark Z,
        Owning stock in most profitable manufacturing companies as the economy exists now, does nothing for any workers here. The actual manufacturers are almost all Chinese or Indian. Manufacturing companies moved out of the U.S, years ago to China to take advantage of their low wages and OUR tax laws. Owning stock can pay off, true. But it doesn’t necessarily do anything for the employment rolls here.
        But, if someone actually owned and serviced the robot doing the work, and paid their taxes on the output here in the U.S.A., instead of moving their money offshore and into stock shares of a company that hires foreign workers working in a foreign country, our economy would become more competitive and another citizen would possibly drop from the welfare rolls. The robots exist already.
        What we are doing now is just spending money on cheap as possible foreign goods over and over to the detriment of our national economy. Current exercise in futility yields only a deeper hole, into which we will all be buried eventually… IMHO

  6. Quick question: You have any experience with this Occulious VR equipment? I was offered a free pair last night to check out. They are like $350 at Best Buy. I wonder if you could work with them and the Light crown in tandem, through the principle of auto suggestion. I never hear of them till last night. Pretty cool shit.

    • “any experience with this Occulious VR equipment?”

      I don’t know about that one.. but almost thirty years ago.. I seen one at a show.. put on the goggles.. position the speakers .. you were standing on the edge of the grand canyon.. look up see the bird flying.. hear the flap of its wings.. hear the rustle of the branches.. look left down any direction it was seamless.. you would have sworn you were standing on the edge of the grand canyon..
      almost forty five years ago I see a laser hologram .. it was absolutely amazing.. today we have google earth.. and every square foot mapped..now consider this.. that is what we have.. for the officials… they can count the hairs on your.. well you know.. we seen one where they got the printing on a golf ball in flight…from thousands of miles away…

  7. “Surely, they can’t be so stupid as to believe the public can’t see through this partisan sell-out.”

    If you go to any college campus (save probably Liberty and Hillsdale) and ask the kiddies, they’ll tell you it’s positively shameful, the way Trump is trying to steal the election and disenfranchise millions of honest voters… and so on. They’re not stupid, they’re ignorant, arrogant, lazy, get their news from CNN or MSDNC and their opinion from the Soros’ educational outreach program or the ChiCom educational outreach program, both of which are found on nearly every Division-1 and 2 college campus in the U.S. and which are typically the most-active clubs or groups on campus.

    Those kiddies and their profs number a sizable percentage of PopUS and are virtually all, of voting age…

    • I’ve seen this personally and experienced trying to have a sane conversation with these brainwashed kids. It’s sad. The profs, and especially the administrators are largely responsible for it. Billions of dollars are spent to promote “equity and inclusion” for historically marginalized groups, while excluding the real marginalized people today. Communism and “critical theory” are taught openly and are oversubscribed by the kids. All paid for by our tax dollars in the form of direct aid and openly encouraged “to be defaulted” student loans.

      At least the covid separation plans today are keeping the clubs and other interactive indoctrination groups from meeting in person.

      • “trying to have a sane conversation with these brainwashed kids. It’s sad. The profs, and especially the administrators are largely responsible for it. ”

        Lol that’s why wife has a stringent rule.. I’m not allowed to talk politics, religion, or social dysfunction, in a family gathering..
        The family openly avoids conversations where I feel a debate is needed..I’ve a theology professor nephew that avoids religion topics..
        We had a picnic where one of the kids friends hadn’t heard the rules of engagement in family conversations..( I was being obedient to)and during one of their deeper conversations said..I love this..”you should read more and be better informed”… lol lol everyone got up and found something else yo do expecting me to drag them into a huge debate..lol lol lol
        I didnt though..agreed with them and let it slide. And seriously . Who would be right.. snd would it make any difference..

      • Yes, why does it seems so difficult, for some of us, to grasp the idea, that real people chose Hitler, Stalin, and Mao. They didn’t force themselves on people that elected them into domination over them.

        People complain about the system and other, but they are the ultimate consequence of all our choices. Think!

      • ‘Thing is, we’re starting to hear of the ChiCom efforts — Soros’ efforts are completely hidden.

        This was his M.O. for all the “color revolutions.” He would create political action clubs, disguised as social clubs, through Open Society (and its predecessor organizations) on every college campus in a country. The “clubs” were well-funded and would indoctrinate da kiddies, fomenting discord with the existing political structure of the country and introducing a carefully-crafted concept of “change.” Soros’ minions typically did this in a country for years before the commie imbeds at our DoS would begin to throw American tax dollars into the mix with USAID and other “NGOs” and “aid organizations.” He’s been doing it in the U.S. since about 2004. In what other Western nations he’s doing it, I don’t know, but he ain’t doin’ it in Hungary, ‘cuz they threw him and his societal perverts out.

        That said, if’fn I were a legislator or IJ in France or the U.K., Scandinavia or Australia, I’d certainly be examining the antecedents and funding trails of any campus organizations formed since 1999, if not earlier…

    • Unbelievable that a school district doesn’t have a clue about history:

      San Francisco to rename Abraham Lincoln High School because former president did not demonstrate that ‘black lives mattered to him’

      • Thanks for pointing out that story. According to Wikipedia, the demographics of the school include 50+ % Asian, 5 % White, and 4% Black. I didn’t look at the other 43 schools which are apparently in the line of fire for renaming. The school board appears to be running an odd puppet show, but who is the puppetmaster?

    • Ray,
      While you may not like the educational system and feel that it doesn’t create enough critically thinking individuals (and I agree), this doesn’t make their views on the election incorrect. Nearly 60 failed lawsuits later, not to mention the SCOTUS and Bill Barr rejecting his claims as well, Trump has indeed repeatedly shown that he is trying to disenfranchise millions of voters and steal the election. Because that’s all he knows…lying, cheating, and stealing.
       By the way,  I am not “lazy”, and indeed read a broad range of “news” sites and viewpoints (including Urban Survival, obviously), to attempt to gain a clear picture of what is really going on in this crazy world (Do you?)  My not very difficult to conclude analysis has been over and over:
      Trump was/is/always will be an unmitigated,  corrupt, disaster not to mention an utter loser and the biggest wimp (disguised as a wannabe strongman) that the world has seen in decades. And really, it’s too bad; he could have done some amazing things.

  8. Yes the answer is yes all they have to do is pump the right frequency in and it cures all the diseases and it cures all negative thoughts,
    As I have posted right after the covid came out that there are people using musical frequencies to cure all 19 variations of the covid at that time now we have a lot more variations,
    Yes they have the technology to replace all your organs and your body Limbs, and completely clean your body of all viruses we have the technology and it’s being used but not for you , the future will be here sooner than you think ,,,,,,,
    So I encourage you to keep practicing with your mind to have all these Revelations revealed and the people or the beings that are overseeing and causing these problems will be overtaken and you and I and the rest of humanity will be able to be relieved from these puppet Masters who have only one goal and that is to keep you a slave ,
    May all beings be lovingly fulfilled and they do not want you to be lovingly fulfilled they want you to experience fear and disaster,

    May all beings be financially fulfilled and they do not want that ,they want for you to beg at their door for another dollar,

    May all beings be readily fulfilled, they do not want you to be ready for what’s happening

    • “there are people using musical frequencies to cure all 19 variations of the covid at that time now we have a lot more variations,”

      Dam interesting… as long as its not….. RAP. …notice how they dropped the C…

    • Thanks Coffehound, I am going for my 2nd tumbler of coffee and give your sites a peruse. A little honey and vanilla for this 2nd round

  10. I don’t think there will be a war in the conventional sense. The modern weapon is too strong. Unless of course the intent is to destroy the physical planet.

    One of the latest making the gossip circles, Chinese troops positioned in Canada. That was a conspiracy from the late 1990’s. Russians were placed somewhere in the conspiracy too.

    Like warhammaer suggests, needles are the way to go.

    Who can disagree with a loved one who wants the needle? The convinced demand you take them for the needle and unwittingly become the vector to a “great pharmaceutical accident of 2021” that destroys us. To the future citizens we won’t matter.

    We’ll be footnotes for awhile then legend, like Passover.

  11. thankyou for the screwing great communist nation and people .. and to all the super intelligent guru like george thankyou for so much wisdom .. so smart so red so american !!!!! yayyyyyy screw harder and george is out to 2021 then 2022 BUT i hope the red fleet and baltic north fleet dont end up mobilising !!!! insert word this childish gibberish outlook garbage

  14. Sources say prez joe is declining fast . Can’t shave , dress self , memory I.e read without queu cards . Relax . Good sort Kamala coming .! Get used to it can’t change it

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