Housing, Jobless, and Productive Holidays

Data Driven Dispondency

Numbers can be depressing.  In the  ChartPack of Peoplenomics Wednesday, I answered a reader’s question.  Which was?  “ When you back out the Fed Money Printing Party, where are we vis-à-vis the 1929 Replay?”

The answer is?  We are at the 1920’s Dow equivalent of 314 – remembering the all-time high in Sept. of 1929 was around 382.  That  was depressing.  Fed has pushed the pain from October of 1929 into early June of 1930 – if that matters.

Even more-so is that people can’t seem to get it through their heads that despite all the fancy “Financial Engineering” about, we’re about to be smacked with a liberal government that we’re 99.6% sure will take back tax cuts, will try to stick rental owners with the bills for poor-pays over the Covid fiasco, and those rental owners who opt for “keys in lieu of foreclosure” will be hounded into the poor house by 2022.  People keep hoping, though: San Diegans caravan to extend rent moratorium.  Which doesn’t make sense to us…but no one asked.

My, what a fine  civilian government we have though, eh?

No one but Crazy George In the Woods (CGITW) seems to have noticed the paucity of dividends as stocks have been largely transitioned from “giving money back to shareholders as rent on their money at risk” to “Find a Greater Fool and sell higher to them  ‘cuz we’re not sharing shit...”

Yet, people keep making-up free content for the Social Media Greedsters and the high tech pony shows.

Tell me we don’t need smaller phones and more than 8 cores?

At least, when shaving, I can look at that “man in the mirror” and say “Well, you explained why Social Media was unethical and you walked the talk…”

Welcome to a small backwater of the Internet where core values, ethics, disagreement and a double-doze of stating the obvious (but with respect) is still practiced.  (Though not 100% in our Comments section.)

“Oh, woe is with them” says the New Yoke Times: Big Fines and Strict Rules Unveiled Against ‘Big Tech’ in EuropePobrecitos!  

Hopefully you already dot-connected that ” Top Social Media Execs Donated To Biden Campaign While Censoring NYPost’s Hunter Story .”  Must be nice to own Congress AND the WH, huh?  55-gallon drums of Astro-Glide, anyone?

Ure’s Digital Despots Rule No dividends? No dough!? Then sure as hell no mercy.  Save to thow ’em ALL out in 2024.

Delusion Data Dumps

“Hold your arm still.  This will just sting for a second and your arm may feel cold at first….”

Like a shot of propanol, you’ll want to be partially-anesthetized to read further with all the economic data coming.  Especially this morning (“Is your arm cold, yet?“).  See how these work out for you:

Philly Fed Data:

Santa can skip vote-fixing land.  Just put this on the tab:

The diffusion index for current activity fell 15 points to 11.1 in December, its lowest positive reading following its fall to long-term lows in April and May (see Chart 1). The percentage of firms reporting increases this month (29 percent) exceeded the percentage reporting decreases (18 percent). The index for new orders decreased nearly 36 points to a reading of 2.3. Although nearly 31 percent of the firms reported increases in new orders this month, the share of firms reporting decreases jumped from 11 percent in November to 28 percent this month. The current shipments index fell 11 points to 14.4 in December.”

Unemployment Claims

“Hello?  Anyone still working out there?”

“The advance number of actual initial claims under state programs, unadjusted, totaled 935,138 in the week ending December 12, a decrease of 21,335 (or -2.2 percent) from the previous week. The seasonal factors had expected a decrease of 44,737 (or -4.7 percent) from the previous week. There were 270,547 initial claims in the comparable week in 2019. In addition, for the week ending December 12, 53 states reported 455,037 initial claims for Pandemic Unemployment Assistance.
The advance unadjusted insured unemployment rate was 3.7 percent during the week ending December 5, a decrease of 0.3 percentage point from the prior week. “

Important to realize the real number we report is the actual data.

Most of the co-opted mainstream reports bullshit “seasonally-adjusted” numbers which is where their hyped 885,000 new filings came from.  Which is NOT what’s going on.  ALWAYS avoid Seasonally Adjusted Data.  Stick to facts, not “statistical inferences from the Swamp!

See Bell & Hilmer’s work (1984) for crying out loud!  Big lies, often told, yada, yada….

How About Housing Data, Then?

Sure…since no one goes to work, let’s build more homes, then…

“Building Permits Privately-owned housing units authorized by building permits in November were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1,639,000. This is 6.2 percent (±1.5 percent) above the revised October rate of 1,544,000 and is 8.5 percent (±1.8 percent) above the November 2019 rate of 1,510,000.

Housing Starts Privately-owned housing starts in November were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1,547,000. This is 1.2 percent (±8.6 percent)* above the revised October estimate of 1,528,000 and is 12.8 percent (±11.3 percent) above the November 2019 rate of 1,371,000.

Housing Completions Privately-owned housing completions in November were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1,163,000. This is 12.1 percent (±5.6 percent) below the revised October estimate of 1,323,000 and is 4.8 percent (±10.6 percent)* below the November 2019 rate of 1,222,000. Single-family housing completions in November were at a rate of 874,000; this is 0.6 percent (±7.5 percent)* below the revised October rate of 879,000. The November rate for units in buildings with five units or more was 280,000.

Yet not all of these things add up (“Hold your arm still, just a little more now…”)  Here’s the Daily Zinger:

Dow Futures are +127.

More amazing?  Private Equity Giant KKR Expects 2021 Economy Will Be Stronger Than Anything Ever Seen Before.”  Yeah…like it was in Zimbabwe during its wild socialist hyperinflation. Woo-hoo!  Whee!

Soon as you wake up from this lil ol’ propanol push, maybe you’d like to sample a nice crack pipe, for breakfast?  Mexican tar for lunch.  Oh, wait, that’s the Money Supply – early dinner fixin’s.

Crack Pots

Hey!  Let’s play “Name That Fool” – popular for decades in (gallows-humor driven newsrooms across the Land before Consultants who get paid for…well…you know…).  The Canadian version of this game is  Spot-the-Looney:

Top court rules Hungary flouted EU law by detaining migrants.”  Madness on bordering is contagious.  Hopefully some will settle down at George Soros’ joint…take it over?

33% of girlfriends reportedly plan to drop engagement hints more than 15 times, bridal study says.”  Uh…can we suggest, oh…you know…DATING SMARTER MEN?

Sen. David Perdue’s suspicious stock success shows why members of Congress shouldn’t be allowed to trade individual stocks.”  No, Congressoids ought to simply have a rule “Can’t front-run (trade ahead of) constituents…”

(Wonder if we could get our Congressman (Gooden) here in the Outback to put out something like  “Stock Tips from the Swamp“?  Make it part of Peoplenomics?  Sure he’s got higher bidders than us ($0- but 5% of new Peoplenomics subscribers), versus a TV show, book deal, or movie offers already, though…  Sheesh.

Did you notice the CNNOpinion: America’s peaceful election is worth celebrating“?  Let’s all celebrate being stupid!!!  YGTBFKM.

Missing Data?

We noticed that 2 Alaska health care workers have allergic reactions after taking Pfizer’s COVID-19 vaccine.

Question is “Out of how many?”  Then we could calculate  ‘n’ for ourselves.  Wait, government owns math…even on obvious things.  I am so wrong….bad…bad…bad….

Just daydreaming about becoming fabulously wealthy from profits off that vaccine, propanol, Benadryl, and EpiPen mix…that’s all.

As the World Burns

Imitation is the sincerest form of flattery:  

Here comes China with a classic Corvette look-alike (sort of…) hybrid:  ” A 1958 ’Vette Translated Into Modern Chinese.”

We only have one question:  “Do the numbers match?”

At least the vax shipments will stay cold:

Snowstorm Blankets US East Coast, Threatening Vaccine Rollout.

And we by-God  love technology, after seeing this pop up on our  RSS Feed monitoring site:

We recently redesigned State.gov and are in the process of re-enabling RSS (Really Simple Syndication) feeds.

St. Dept Press Releases 50 years ago ”  I can’t make this stuff up.

Holiday Joy

A lot of people – including Elaine and me – will be having quiet holidays and down-time over the next couple of weeks.  In order to get the most out of the period, a reminder for Peoplenomics.com subscribers to consider using the spreadsheet called “Taskmaster.xls” which can be downloaded from the Master Index pages.

The basic idea is that you take all the stuff you need to do in Life but just can’t get motivated to start on.  Put it into a spreadsheet and let software pick one at random for you.  Here’s how the original template (2018) example looks:

Every time you open the spreadsheet, it will pick  something at random from your list. Variety!  No thinking means no chance to make up excuses!

In one version of this, you use pure 1… n numbering.  But in this example, I grouped things a bit in advance.  Category 6 (ham radio), for example.  If I’m lucky enough to have that come up, (Do a #6): might have 20 meter SSB on it, but if the band is closed there, I can pick another (6) ham radio project (repair or align something) and do that instead.

Today, I will be loading a simple “punch list” for the holidays.  Things that I would otherwise lie and self-delude by way out of doing.  But, if I let the spreadsheet run my life just 3-hours a day, it is amazing over the course of a week or three how many neat things get done.

Got three or four items in the studio to do, for example:  Got to get the DBX-160a’s put in.  Owe some dub-downs from 10″ reel to reels to get down.  Need to put the new mic in so I can get podcasting again…

Sitting here in a man-toy filled room (audio, video, ham gear) and walking through toy-land (shop with metal working, woodworking, 3D printers and CNC…) my  spectrum of action isn’t  right. I can’t get out of the office.  Made it to the shop a couple of days recently, though…

This way, my already somewhat random (but pleasure-decisioned) life can be more properly randomized.

Which means that a lot of important stuff (install the wood-fired pizza oven, but first I need to build the outdoor baking center) will get done, rather than just getting the parts and putting it all on the Too Hard Pile.

Been thinking about the new and improved ways to add some basic A.I. to the spreadsheet as the next evolution of software.

Seems a far more rational (purpose-driven and outcome-oriented) way to run life than this silly “bouncing around off the social rails” that most life.

Might reopen this for additional design discussion on the subscriber site.  A chance to move forward on individual life optimizations.  As always, comments welcome.

(Peoplenomics subscribers will find the original article from February 21, 2018 here: Managing Retirement Time  )  Microsoft really ought to put a task randomizer in Project.  Is ProjectLibre listening?

Sunday our annual look at Surplus stores, material sources, and other time-squanders will be right here…

Write when you get done with everything,


51 thoughts on “Housing, Jobless, and Productive Holidays”

    • Chest beating from apes. 100% chance it get rightfully thrown out due to lack of Evidence and just plain common sense. The dumb guy lost. Anyone surprised? I wouldn’t hire Trump to shine my shoes. President????hahahahahahahaha.

      • Mark, I find you intelligent enough to finally realize that your continual “trumpbashing” is nothing else, but a cheap release from “your own suppressed extreme loathing for your own father.” Pfui! ;-((

      • It wasn’t due to lack of evidence but the fact that the country was just too divided, and they wanted to protect their own turf. When you take lawyers and turn them into judges and plunk some unheard of judge on the high court, one who knows nothing about the Constitution, Bill of Rights or the writing of the founding fathers you end up with this. One has to wonder how they select these people who it seems knows very little then ask them some useless questions from a useless congress to add some validity to the process, then you understand the major problems within the country.!!!

      • Mark
        December 17, 2020 at 10:53

        Chest beating from apes. 100% chance it get rightfully thrown out due to lack of Evidence and just plain common sense. The dumb guy lost. Anyone surprised? I wouldn’t hire Trump to shine my shoes. President????hahahahahahahaha.

        Mark, If this exemplifies your perspective on the relationship between D’s and R’s, after the guy YOU hired as President just spoke to the nation on the idea of reconciliation, harmony, moving forward etc. A regular Koombaya fest. I can see what to expect from you and your ilk, no matter what your master says. The old saw, “I know I’m a little paranoid but the question is: Am I paranoid enough?” comes to mind. Can’t trust you for your behavior. Sorry!

  1. Buttigieg changed the one way streets in south bend to 2 way.
    Now there are no places to park.
    And he is what ?

    • Trying to prove he’s not liberal.

      The craze these daze for traffic planners is “calming” which means changing two way streets to one way streets. Also stuff like taking 4 lanes down to 2. Making it easy to park, and hard to drive, but less likely bikes and pedestrians will be impacted.

      So to go in the other direction seems to be a deliberate attempt to be obtuse.

      • I’ve seen the removal of lanes and turning them into “bike lanes”. Of course, I rarely if ever see a bike – especially in winter. It’s just worthless asphalt at that point. “Traffic circles” are another fad – silly roundabouts that can’t handle a pickup with a decent sized trailer, much less a semi. There’s a constant push to make everyone use “public transit”, though it’s very inefficient and doesn’t provide a means to carry mass quantities of anything.

        Cars are still the cheapest means of getting to any roadable destination, and pickups/vans are the most effective means of moving most things.

        BTW, since the NY Times has paywalled itself, the Chinese Corvette can be seen at:


        It’s interesting, but at 160k I could hand build it cheaper.

    • “And he is what ?”

      Erudite and articulate, but short on brightness (despite his background), long on socialist philosophy (from his communist upbringing), and absolutely, positively, NOT an administrator.

      Nobody noticed when I commented I feel safer in downtown Detroit or the south side of Chicago than I do on the south side of South Bend after dark — not kidding. It might be better now (been nearly two years since I’ve been to SB/Mishe/Elkhart), but it sucked for years, and when Pete was Mayor, he did nothing but make it suck worse and become more dangerous…

  2. Had to read it again – Housing Starts up while Completions are down. Weird. Wonder if it has anything to do with the cost of lumber rocketing since September. Around here it’s added 20 G’s to the cost of a house.

    A friend I knew back in school has come back to town to buy properties in our area and was going to buy one of ours but he hasn’t been able to fill the vacancies in the ones he’s bought yet. The Squeeze is beginning to rear its head around here as well. It takes a bit for things to arrive here. I don’t think the 60s came to our area until about 1972.

    • Completions are down due to seasonality. Weather slows things down in the frost belt. Starts are determined by applications for permits. Most frost belt builders get their projects permitted, plans approved and shovel ready for the warm months in early spring.

      • That’s strange living in Western New York between the lakes (in real winter country) we build all winter long, in fact we are booked a year ahead and are turning down builds that are offered, in fact we just turned down two commercial builds that was to start next month, we just finished a build of 2200 sq. feet and start the next on the 28th of 3400 sq. feet so I think weather has little to do with anything.>>

      • Privately-owned housing completions in November were at a *seasonally adjusted* annual rate of 1,163,000.

        No, the YoY drop takes seasonality into account.

      • Bluedog,
        I am referring to national stats. And nationally, seasonality is everything. And JT…permit applications are at an all time high…completions aren’t keeping up,due to seaonality.

    • A fairly close relative just went into contract on her first house. It’s a small foreclosure in an excellent area, but it’s still more than I would pay. There’s choice and funding available at the top of a market, but it costs. At least there’s room to create some sweat equity there.

      If we have the expected crash, there will be better bargains on the way down(for cash), but she and her S.O. still have to live somewhere.

    • I would say the lumber costs factor in alot. My husband works with a guy having a new home built. When lumber went to the moon, the contractor asked if he wanted to continue or halt construction, due to the estimated cost going over $40,000 budget for the wood. I don’t know if he stayed withit or not, but it’s absolutely nuts for lumber to have gotten so expensive!

  3. People have been programmed to quickly criticize anyone who refuses to wear a mask or refuses to lockdown. Specially when a politician is seen out and about with their mask down. Weather we agree or disagree with masks and lockdowns, we’ve been taught to criticize those who don’t. –

    “Do as I say, not as I do.”
    When we lead, it’s by word and action. There should be no discrepancies between the two but, if there is, there’s a lack of integrity … somewhere. Either a damn fool or a patriot rebel trying to get a message out that “this is BS.”

    People get tested, get a positive and are sent home to quarantine and close their business. 99.8% live past quarantine but lose everything in the process. Surviving the virus is easy for most but, losing it all is the hard part. Why do we have to lose anything? – because at the other end of the pipe we see body bags and hazmat suits and freezer trucks. God, what a show !!

    Talk is cheap but examples can be very profound. Do you follow the example of the possible demise into a freezer truck or, the politician who emulates a little freedom? Tough question for many.

    • No doubt participants in Urban Survival will be at the top of the list for targeting by a through-the-roof satellite surveillance system. This should spark a mad rush to install countermeasures. I can’t wait for the DIY version installation accounts.

      • Ure’s .mil contractor days defined double-walled galv metal roof in 1968 to implement in 2005. Tango ital sierra kilo. Tango Italy sierra kilo (do not answer, break-break…)

      • Well ….I’ll never tell…. my suspicion is that it is that way already..
        NSA built a multi billion dollar facility.. just watching the google ads should give you an idea how everyone is being tracked.
        One of my talents was to view and diagnose film.. well one day someone sent me a photo and asked how many people I could spot hiding in it.. the average found ten and twelve.. I found 27 and facebook face recognition software found 34 gave their names addresses and family members names.. their associates and friends.. today just look around you..theres cameras all around ..gps coordinances ,ip addresses..

    • Creepy! I’m sure that the NRO and others have far more effective tech. Still, this is available to anyone – even your neighbor if they are willing to pay. I wonder if a grounded metal surround would defeat this. A grounded metal roof without penetrations maybe? It’s active at 9.65 Ghz, so it should be detectable. It’s also limited to around 20″ pixelation due to current US law(for now).

      • Lol

        “this is available to anyone – even your neighbor if they are willing to pay. ”

        The old Sony night vision cameras had infrared imaging.. when the realized that the company scrapped it and went uv. You can get the flir imaging unit for your phone for around two hundred now. I just bought an image stacking scope to give out as an xmas gift to one of my hunters..I hadn’t seen any of that tack out except for the ones I seen during my military days. Range is suppose to be ten miles plus..
        Google maps and virtual home tours gives everyone the ability to go down any city or country street .. then checkout the housing layout in the neighborhoods..practical home use for sales and a good way to do military and police strategic planning during times of street violence.

  4. yep ole george back at it again talking that escape plan economics . all you guys must get big $$$ for constantly promoting bullsh!!t . ahh the american dream monetise the debt .. about 300 trillion behind .. but remember it grows faster than you can spread manure

  5. George,
    Biden will keep all tax cuts up to $400,000. Meaning that IF he can, he will only take away the Upper 1%’s tax cuts. Which BTW was paid for by borrowing on the national debt, which you might recall, we both really don’t like too much. Best, Mike.

  6. One day we woke up and the world had changed. Any hint of Democracy was gone. Rules everywhere taking away all our rights. We bowed down because of fear of contagion. Then we voted on machines owned by a company bought by the CCP in September 2020 for 400 million, and we elected a demented puppet. By the time he is installed, he won’t remember he is president and someone will need to change his diapers. Someone will have to rule through him, maybe that’s why his son received 1.5 billion dollars from the CCP in 2014. We have been had. It’s going to be one hell of a ride.

  7. nah im glad we got someone hot to look at as a world leader as well . all of em are ugly . kamala will look better than all put together . fine by me what she does .. you idiots and professor george ure and dagolio or mick moriarty aint gunna change that . nah sooner prez joe steps away the better got a good sort to watch

  8. Phew …GEORGE….you outdid yourself today..everything you said is exactly what I’ve been thinking..

    At the bottom it’s all quite scary..

    Years ago I was given a few of these to test and play with…https://www.amazon.com/Power-Factor-Correction-Energy-Saver/dp/B076TP4TPX
    They’re basically a super cap in a box.. after testing it I realized they wouldn’twork.. on AC circuitry .. well today I decided to take the caps and make a starting unit for the pickup..see if I can slow the discharge rate..

    • Those kind of units – essentially an adjustable capacitor do work in specialized situations. Esp when in old areas of the grid, lots of switch-mode power supplies (think computers) have screwed up PF.

      As all of our readers know, power factor in alternative current – has to do with the offset between peak inductive power (coil or inductor driven) arriving at the same time as peak capacitive power (which is where the cap comes in).

      In the event that L power (inductive) is arriving offset from capacitive, then you will not have reactive power that gives an honest RMS (root mean square) when comes to resistive heating, and so forth.

      If you measure inductive and capacitive together, they are offset. The amount of offset is called “power factor.”

      100% power factor has capacitive and inductive arriving identically. Usually, power companies sell power and don’t worry if they get 90% PF at the user box. Still, this means you pay for 10% more power than you actually used..

      Radio note: Tweaking the arrival time of peak L and C power in an AM radio station with directional array is how bcst engineers like Hank and I used to adjust “phasors” since even with two towers, you can get a good cardioid pattern null with proper relation setting between peak L and peak C values – Hank want to contrib a discussion of phasor adjustment on multi-tower vertical arrays?

      In those cases where line power factor is way off (say 70%) and the addition of capacitance will bring the PF up toward 100, then they can reduce billed load (for the same work being done).

      No problem with ur plan to turn unit into a starting box…but why limit rate of discharge?

      The higher the instantaneous R.o.d. the higher the initial (lock rotor current) you’d be able to turn over… unless it’s some oddball voltage higher than 14.5, or so.

      • Write? But I’m not done with ‘everything’ yet!
        My first AM radio station was a 3 tower array with a butterfly type pattern in the Wisconsin cold. Nine critical protection radial directions to other stations. Yes, it was interesting learning that one could vary the power and phase of each tower independently to move the pattern and nulls around, but that was only half the challenge. The power company built a 345kv interstate line parallel and 3/4 mile alongside the tower array, which became a huge parasitic ‘warper’ of the pattern. Plus our quartz sand soil (that they now sell for fracking!) had a conductivity of barely 1.5. So the antenna pattern was at it’s most intense in the middle of winter with snow on the ground at -20 degrees F. I spent three years upgrading, adjusting, and measuring 20 topographic points on each of those nine radial directions in the middle of winter in Wisconsin. After that I moved to Hawaii and got into Television. Guess why?

    • If you’re running a lot of motors, such as in a shop, then such units will help a lot in power factor correction. The situation with computer power supplies is a bit more complex:



      It’s more a matter of harmonic distortion. Modern computer switched mode power supplies have active PFC that tries to minimize their effects on the line. Like everything else, it’s not perfect. Some appliances have internal PFC capacitors. Without an oscilloscope and/or other test equipment, you’re flying blind on sizing a line capacitor.

      I’ve been assured by my local utility(YMMV) that they only bill for actual consumed power on residential meters, though their “smart meters” measure both KW and KVA. Experience on my own accounts seems to indicate this.

      • One advantage of having a power capacitor at the main box is that it will tend to absorb line noise and transients before the house distribution. This alone might be a good enough reason to install one.

  9. Hint we are NOT a Democracy we are a Republic. Or at least we once was a Republic now we are nothing but a royally mixed up nation heading for Bankruptcy. When you hear it is only a few Trillion more debt you might sort of get the feeling we are so screwed.

  10. What happened to this place? Why are there rambling illiterates allowed to post here. Why are so many posters here posting in a secret society language only the brotherhood of conspiracy theorists can understand?

    I miss the days when Ure was telling us the market was rounding the corner on disaster and the Rocky Mountains were about to collapse into the sea. Ure no Nostodamas. Looking back, this cynicism probably cost most of you a bunch of buy hold gains since 2007, not to mention pride in all types of Americans hopes and dreams.

    Mark man give up. You have friends at political anarchy when you get tired of this place.

    • Mark certainly does have some really excellent progressive ghost writers editing his posts.

      I’m curious as to how political anarchy and progressivism have become joined at the hip? Could you explain that to us? From what I have read, Kamalunism isn’t compatible with progressivism or anarchism. I always thought anarchists were individuals with kinks incompatible with functioning in polite society. Are you trying to suggest that Mark is a closet anarchist on the verge of coming out? That doesn’t fit in with Mark’s public stances. Or are you also saying that progressivism is a anarchist sub-kink? I had a higher opinion of progressives prior to the past four years. Progressives have been demoted to just another hate group using intellectual BS to justify leftist bully tactics in my eyes. And anarchists only crawl out from under their rocks when they smell blood in the streets.

      Which secret societies are you referring to ? Amateur radio? Political cynics? Victims of political street anarchy? Debt slaves who cling to any political Hopium they are fed? A large section of G____’s readers have been having the hope slowly beaten out of them, as our jobs are handed to foreign nationals, our heritage is demonized, our access to cost effective medical care choked off, and our savings plundered. I will concede one point to you, Hope has become an American dream indeed, as opposed to reality.

    • We are about to face this virus head on.. It struck the facility that the wife works at.. the CDC came in last night and passed out garbage bags for gowns.. with a hole cut in it for the head and arms LOL LOL LOL… the virus hit and exploded in the place.. really brings up memories of the flu of 92…
      We are doing all the precautions that we can for here at least.. trying to keep it from hitting our household.. but statistically its more than likely coming..

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