Data Driven Dispondency
Numbers can be depressing. In the ChartPack of Peoplenomics Wednesday, I answered a reader’s question. Which was? “ When you back out the Fed Money Printing Party, where are we vis-à-vis the 1929 Replay?”
The answer is? We are at the 1920’s Dow equivalent of 314 – remembering the all-time high in Sept. of 1929 was around 382. That was depressing. Fed has pushed the pain from October of 1929 into early June of 1930 – if that matters.
Even more-so is that people can’t seem to get it through their heads that despite all the fancy “Financial Engineering” about, we’re about to be smacked with a liberal government that we’re 99.6% sure will take back tax cuts, will try to stick rental owners with the bills for poor-pays over the Covid fiasco, and those rental owners who opt for “keys in lieu of foreclosure” will be hounded into the poor house by 2022. People keep hoping, though: San Diegans caravan to extend rent moratorium. Which doesn’t make sense to us…but no one asked.
My, what a fine civilian government we have though, eh?
No one but Crazy George In the Woods (CGITW) seems to have noticed the paucity of dividends as stocks have been largely transitioned from “giving money back to shareholders as rent on their money at risk” to “Find a Greater Fool and sell higher to them ‘cuz we’re not sharing shit...”
Yet, people keep making-up free content for the Social Media Greedsters and the high tech pony shows.
Tell me we don’t need smaller phones and more than 8 cores?
At least, when shaving, I can look at that “man in the mirror” and say “Well, you explained why Social Media was unethical and you walked the talk…”
Welcome to a small backwater of the Internet where core values, ethics, disagreement and a double-doze of stating the obvious (but with respect) is still practiced. (Though not 100% in our Comments section.)
“Oh, woe is with them” says the New Yoke Times: Big Fines and Strict Rules Unveiled Against ‘Big Tech’ in Europe. Pobrecitos!
Hopefully you already dot-connected that ” Top Social Media Execs Donated To Biden Campaign While Censoring NYPost’s Hunter Story .” Must be nice to own Congress AND the WH, huh? 55-gallon drums of Astro-Glide, anyone?
Ure’s Digital Despots Rule: No dividends? No dough!? Then sure as hell no mercy. Save to thow ’em ALL out in 2024.
Delusion Data Dumps
“Hold your arm still. This will just sting for a second and your arm may feel cold at first….”
Like a shot of propanol, you’ll want to be partially-anesthetized to read further with all the economic data coming. Especially this morning (“Is your arm cold, yet?“). See how these work out for you:
Philly Fed Data:
Santa can skip vote-fixing land. Just put this on the tab:
“The diffusion index for current activity fell 15 points to 11.1 in December, its lowest positive reading following its fall to long-term lows in April and May (see Chart 1). The percentage of firms reporting increases this month (29 percent) exceeded the percentage reporting decreases (18 percent). The index for new orders decreased nearly 36 points to a reading of 2.3. Although nearly 31 percent of the firms reported increases in new orders this month, the share of firms reporting decreases jumped from 11 percent in November to 28 percent this month. The current shipments index fell 11 points to 14.4 in December.”
“Hello? Anyone still working out there?”
“The advance number of actual initial claims under state programs, unadjusted, totaled 935,138 in the week ending December 12, a decrease of 21,335 (or -2.2 percent) from the previous week. The seasonal factors had expected a decrease of 44,737 (or -4.7 percent) from the previous week. There were 270,547 initial claims in the comparable week in 2019. In addition, for the week ending December 12, 53 states reported 455,037 initial claims for Pandemic Unemployment Assistance.
The advance unadjusted insured unemployment rate was 3.7 percent during the week ending December 5, a decrease of 0.3 percentage point from the prior week. “
Important to realize the real number we report is the actual data.
Most of the co-opted mainstream reports bullshit “seasonally-adjusted” numbers which is where their hyped 885,000 new filings came from. Which is NOT what’s going on. ALWAYS avoid Seasonally Adjusted Data. Stick to facts, not “statistical inferences from the Swamp!
See Bell & Hilmer’s work (1984) for crying out loud! Big lies, often told, yada, yada….
How About Housing Data, Then?
Sure…since no one goes to work, let’s build more homes, then…
“Building Permits Privately-owned housing units authorized by building permits in November were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1,639,000. This is 6.2 percent (±1.5 percent) above the revised October rate of 1,544,000 and is 8.5 percent (±1.8 percent) above the November 2019 rate of 1,510,000.
Housing Starts Privately-owned housing starts in November were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1,547,000. This is 1.2 percent (±8.6 percent)* above the revised October estimate of 1,528,000 and is 12.8 percent (±11.3 percent) above the November 2019 rate of 1,371,000.
Housing Completions Privately-owned housing completions in November were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1,163,000. This is 12.1 percent (±5.6 percent) below the revised October estimate of 1,323,000 and is 4.8 percent (±10.6 percent)* below the November 2019 rate of 1,222,000. Single-family housing completions in November were at a rate of 874,000; this is 0.6 percent (±7.5 percent)* below the revised October rate of 879,000. The November rate for units in buildings with five units or more was 280,000.
Yet not all of these things add up (“Hold your arm still, just a little more now…”) Here’s the Daily Zinger:
Dow Futures are +127.
More amazing? “Private Equity Giant KKR Expects 2021 Economy Will Be Stronger Than Anything Ever Seen Before.” Yeah…like it was in Zimbabwe during its wild socialist hyperinflation. Woo-hoo! Whee!
Soon as you wake up from this lil ol’ propanol push, maybe you’d like to sample a nice crack pipe, for breakfast? Mexican tar for lunch. Oh, wait, that’s the Money Supply – early dinner fixin’s.
Hey! Let’s play “Name That Fool” – popular for decades in (gallows-humor driven newsrooms across the Land before Consultants who get paid for…well…you know…). The Canadian version of this game is Spot-the-Looney:
“Top court rules Hungary flouted EU law by detaining migrants.” Madness on bordering is contagious. Hopefully some will settle down at George Soros’ joint…take it over?
“33% of girlfriends reportedly plan to drop engagement hints more than 15 times, bridal study says.” Uh…can we suggest, oh…you know…DATING SMARTER MEN?
” Sen. David Perdue’s suspicious stock success shows why members of Congress shouldn’t be allowed to trade individual stocks.” No, Congressoids ought to simply have a rule “Can’t front-run (trade ahead of) constituents…”
(Wonder if we could get our Congressman (Gooden) here in the Outback to put out something like “Stock Tips from the Swamp“? Make it part of Peoplenomics? Sure he’s got higher bidders than us ($0- but 5% of new Peoplenomics subscribers), versus a TV show, book deal, or movie offers already, though… Sheesh.
Did you notice the CNN “Opinion: America’s peaceful election is worth celebrating“? Let’s all celebrate being stupid!!! YGTBFKM.
Question is “Out of how many?” Then we could calculate ‘n’ for ourselves. Wait, government owns math…even on obvious things. I am so wrong….bad…bad…bad….
Just daydreaming about becoming fabulously wealthy from profits off that vaccine, propanol, Benadryl, and EpiPen mix…that’s all.
As the World Burns
Imitation is the sincerest form of flattery:
Here comes China with a classic Corvette look-alike (sort of…) hybrid: ” A 1958 ’Vette Translated Into Modern Chinese.”
We only have one question: “Do the numbers match?”
At least the vax shipments will stay cold:
And we by-God love technology, after seeing this pop up on our RSS Feed monitoring site:
A lot of people – including Elaine and me – will be having quiet holidays and down-time over the next couple of weeks. In order to get the most out of the period, a reminder for Peoplenomics.com subscribers to consider using the spreadsheet called “Taskmaster.xls” which can be downloaded from the Master Index pages.
The basic idea is that you take all the stuff you need to do in Life but just can’t get motivated to start on. Put it into a spreadsheet and let software pick one at random for you. Here’s how the original template (2018) example looks:
Every time you open the spreadsheet, it will pick something at random from your list. Variety! No thinking means no chance to make up excuses!
In one version of this, you use pure 1… n numbering. But in this example, I grouped things a bit in advance. Category 6 (ham radio), for example. If I’m lucky enough to have that come up, (Do a #6): might have 20 meter SSB on it, but if the band is closed there, I can pick another (6) ham radio project (repair or align something) and do that instead.
Today, I will be loading a simple “punch list” for the holidays. Things that I would otherwise lie and self-delude by way out of doing. But, if I let the spreadsheet run my life just 3-hours a day, it is amazing over the course of a week or three how many neat things get done.
Got three or four items in the studio to do, for example: Got to get the DBX-160a’s put in. Owe some dub-downs from 10″ reel to reels to get down. Need to put the new mic in so I can get podcasting again…
Sitting here in a man-toy filled room (audio, video, ham gear) and walking through toy-land (shop with metal working, woodworking, 3D printers and CNC…) my spectrum of action isn’t right. I can’t get out of the office. Made it to the shop a couple of days recently, though…
This way, my already somewhat random (but pleasure-decisioned) life can be more properly randomized.
Which means that a lot of important stuff (install the wood-fired pizza oven, but first I need to build the outdoor baking center) will get done, rather than just getting the parts and putting it all on the Too Hard Pile.
Been thinking about the new and improved ways to add some basic A.I. to the spreadsheet as the next evolution of software.
Seems a far more rational (purpose-driven and outcome-oriented) way to run life than this silly “bouncing around off the social rails” that most life.
Might reopen this for additional design discussion on the subscriber site. A chance to move forward on individual life optimizations. As always, comments welcome.
(Peoplenomics subscribers will find the original article from February 21, 2018 here: Managing Retirement Time ) Microsoft really ought to put a task randomizer in Project. Is ProjectLibre listening?
Sunday our annual look at Surplus stores, material sources, and other time-squanders will be right here…
Write when you get done with everything,