Talk is Cheap – Bets Matter
I like to keep the mind rolling. So those minutes in the “throne room” are sometimes devoted – like today – to inventing new ways to become fabulously wealthy.
Today’s scheme is particularly interesting: I began by noticing the absurdity quotient is quickly-rising among Trump supporters. Would they puty a dollarized bet on their beliefs?
Observe that we’ve seen nonsense like people claiming “… the military is at Defcon 3…” and in other versions, “...hundreds of thousands of Chinese troops have been killed in deep underground military bases (DUMBs) here in CONUS....” Apparently they’d been prepositioned to take over America as soon as Joe Biden takes office next month… How they got there is not explained.
This being Texas – and me having an almost Twain-like appreciation for a good tall tale – I politely listen to all stories. Publishing the most credible (fact-based) and trying to figure out how to make a buck (monetize – Everything’s a Business Model!) on the rest.
Here’s what I came up with. What IF…. (not saying I’m doing it, but let’s pretend, right?):
- What if I offered a $1 bet that Biden (or Harris) will be sworn in on schedule in January…
- Those taking the bet – who have obviously bought into the conspiracy theories about arresting everyone with a (D) after their name and taking them to Gitmo – have to promise me 1,000 to 1 odds in return.
This is a free market and we know that asymmetric expectations drive price.
So…if True Trump Believers are 1,000-to-1 confident in their expectations, could I afford to lose $100 (my max bet on most things IRL) in return for the prospect of making $100,000 when Biden or Harris is seated? I wouldn’t touch a Biden health bet with a 10-foot Pole, or a 8-foot Ukrainian. Or a (rim shot)
Thing About Bets Is….
We respect (and appreciate) that everyone is entitled to their own OPINIONs.
But, how serious are the Trump diehards (1,000 to 1, maybe?) about the odds of anything other than expected due process will actually be happening?
Been working on our Annual Peoplenomics Outlook piece for 2021 tomorrow. One thing that strikes me as the key “hidden variable” is the answer to what should be a very simple question: “How crazy is America, now, anyway?”
That KOMO_TV documentary monetioned Monday was a good start, but it’s only that. There’s so much data on Craziness America, it makes the head spin.
For example, you can’t support made-up cryptocurrencies wasting energy worldwide on the one hand, and support cleaning up the environment on the other. (You can only comment on this part if you actually own more solar panels than me; E.G. you actually own (not lease) 31 – or more – panels and have a current cogeneration agreement. Then your comments are welcome since they are reality-based. See how this works?).
These points demonstrate how psychotic America has become: Saying and pretending so much bullshit is real on the one hand, while failing to make plans to buy a better outcome on the other, is… Look it up in the DSM-V.
If someone tries to tell you how Trump will use the National Emergency declaration of 2018 and will then use the Friday DNI report on foreign election interference as an excuse to invoke martial law and ship (long list of D’s) to gitmo, demand odds. $30 of such Reality bets at 1,000:1 buys you a new car!
No bets are certain, of course. But, as Warhammer noted on this “Defcon 3” spew:
“I checked with three senior-level sources on this comment via personal email today – one DHS civil servant in DC, one contractor at USAF Special Forces, Hurlburt Field FL, and the other at Peterson AFB/Cheyenne Mountain. One replied with only a laughing/crying email emoji, the other two essentially replied WTF are you reading? So as we’d say in the aviation community, “no joy” at their respective HQ ops levels.”
Don’t tell the deluded, though. Get their bets first.
Except for some interesting aviation action between Turkey and Iran, we don’t hear much out of the sandbox, either. We know people in the Saudi R box.
Old saying: Cash talks, bullshit walks. Don’t let it get away. Make some dough on deniers. The education you remember, after all, is the one that costs the most.
No 50-50 crappe. Get at least 50:1. Leverage. 1,000 to 1 is ideal. (Learned that from a democrat.)
Xiden’s Love-Hate Dance
We’re not the only ones asking. Take Cal Thomas: Hunter Biden investigations — where has the mainstream media been?. The answer? Pandering for position.
The UK Daily Mail’s sum-up of Joe-speak last night was predictable:
“Biden tears into Trump for refusing to accept the ‘will of the people’, calls his ‘extreme’ fraud claims an ‘assault on democracy’, says he won by a landslide and tells US ‘it’s time to turn the page‘“
And so, we are enchanted to see how “Hate becomes Love” when uttered by the best president money can buy.
(We’re already saving for a new one in four years. We’d love to be wrong, but as these things go…..)
After making enough shorting yesterday to shove another choice prime rib in the freezer, the market has flipped back up in the pre-open today. Ahead of a couple of economic data points which includes the Fed Meeting gaveling in with rate (no change) decision tomorrow.
NY Fed Empire State Manufacturing and Import-Export Prices are just out in the past few minutes. Got a preference?
“Business activity edged slightly higher in New York State, according to firms responding to the December 2020 Empire State Manufacturing Survey. The headline general business conditions index was little changed at 4.9. New orders increased marginally, and shipments were modestly higher. Inventories continued to move lower, and delivery times edged up. Employment posted its strongest gain in months, and the average workweek lengthened somewhat. Input prices increased at the fastest pace in two years, while selling prices increased at about the same pace as last month. Looking ahead, firms remained optimistic that conditions would improve over the next six months.
And on t’other:
“Prices for U.S. imports ticked up 0.1 percent in November, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today, after edging down 0.1 percent in October. Higher fuel prices in November more than offset lower nonfuel prices. U.S. export prices also rose in November, increasing 0.6 percent following advances of 0.2 percent in October and 0.6 percent in September.”
After which the market didn’t change too much. Dow futures +166 at click-time.
We expect some “running of the shorts” to continue as Big Guys unload ahead of the Biden Commissariat’s plans for Tax Year 2021. We always plan year-end around settlement date not trade dates. But, we’re Belt and Suspenders in our thinking. Plus tax cowards to boot.
But, like Pappy always said “If you don’t speed, you don’t need to have your head on swivel all the time…and your insurance won’t go up…”
Headline Shopping: Coal Lumps
Grusome for Newsom as Recall Gov. Newsom Campaign Gains Traction In California. Where does it say a government can lock-up an entire state? Factually: Newsom’s problem is no one knows how to end CV-19 short of a complete economic depression, which he’s edging toward however reluctantly, anyway.
Is CV-19 a Bioweapon to reduce world population? New evidence inferred by the New Chinese Study Confirms COVID-19 Attacks Testicles, May Affect Male Fertility.
Crooks on the Hill still can’t produce bupkis on stimulus (surprised?). So foreclosures and evictions will almost surely spike. Your next stimulus check could be for $1,200, $600 or $0, reports CBS with fortune-teller accuracy. Or, you could win the lotto…
California wealth tax scheme seems to have driven off Oracle: Yep – company to Austin. Texas and Larry Ellison heads out to “wowie” west: Seems to us that Republik of Kalifornia socialistas are becoming expert at killing golden geese….
Know who else is good at “golden geese kills?” EU To Unveil Tough Measures To Curb Tech Giants.
Same greedy pricks of the EU who claim a right to tax a non EU company’s worldwide revenues… As I told you in March 2019: ICYDK: Firms that don’t comply, and misuse “personal data” of European persons, are being hit with 4% of worldwide revenue “fines.” What the Brussel’s Sprouts can’t seem to remember is “Money has a Memory.” (Or, dead geese get noticed!)
Economic impacts? With a report that Pornhub removes a majority of its videos after investigation reveals child abuse, leaves us wondering if this will increase American productivity. How much does watching porn in the workplace cost America in lost output, anyway?
Where’d the Climatge Hype go? We’re terribly disappointed that climate change has crawled back in a hole since the change of presidencies lined up. Especially since a Nor’easter expected to bring ‘epic’ snowfall this week. Oh…saving the climate stories for summer heat waves only? We must not be on the distro list.
Tax base Lies: Liberals are In – time to guard your wallet: If We’re Serious About Saving the U.S. Economy, We Need to Bailout the Cities, says Time. Missing the point again, are they? Why aren’t these local socialist clown posses con-artists spending their local option sales tax dough on basic services (like cops) instead of becoming taxpayer-funded drug and crime enablers? Defund cops means “Fund Bad Behavior.”
Unlike delusional politicians, we understand basic economics. Especially the Law: You can only spend it once.
A Woo-Woo Note
I don’t talk much about my “second life.” Not the “online” deal, but the world where I head almost every night over in the Dream Realms. More about it on Peoplenomics this coming Saturday, and also in my book Psychocartography: Mapping the Human Dream.
Other than high entertainment value from last night’s telepathy schooling and 18 ballerina’s plus the adventures of the “beach flyer” there’s a reason to pay attention to dreams for a week to 10-days now.
Many people who are even semi-sensitive to dreams find they are most tuned-in (and enjoyable) at one of the four-corners of the year. The winter solstice comes Monday with the summer one six-months later. While both Samhain and Beltane are “hot windows” for some, the more direct dream influences seem to be the spring and fall equinoxes.
These are also useful because where your “peak dreams” occur can give you important hints about timing in life such as your personal offset from Mercury Retrograde effects and more.
As a reminder then: Some great dream territory ahead this week, so planning a bit of extra sleep – an hour or more additional – can pay big dividends in self-discovery.
Dream hygiene is important, though: If you consciously keep things like gory television, gratuitous violence, anger, hate, and other negative imagery out of your life, your dream worlds will be all the better (and more enjoyable) for it.
As usual the “woke” people have cosmology all foxtrot uniformed…
Speaking of Foxes: Elaine spied a really cute red fox coming through the yard Monday afternoon about 2 PM. Worked his way down the hill toward the neighbor’s place. I’d guess him at 30 pounds or so. Hell of a tail on ’em.
Write when you get rich,