Depends on Your Zoom Level
In the study of qi (qigong), the adept is advised to look for the mysteries on at least three levels: The transient mysteries, the great mysteries, and the Grand mysteries. (Some qigong practitioners prefer subtle wonder, mysterious wonder, and incredible wonder as classifications.
Qigong teachings date back thousands of years, emanating the mountain range/upthrust region that divides northern and southern China. Old adages – standing the tests of time – are occasionally useful even in modern times. The “level of mystery” context was used because “zoom level” made no sense predating, among other things, the telescope. At a secular level, “zoom levels” didn’t go viral until smartphones: the mid-1990’s.
Adroit use of “zoom levels” reveals the gearing of heaven. Which aids as we climb into the clouds to where few hermits persist in caves around the mountain Tailaoshan, Fukien province. Mentally preparing for writing Peoplenomics for this weekend: “The ROI of Speed.”
Today’s Transient Mystery
This is easy: Mechanistic. We have been tracking the market decline from September 2, realizing if the market was unable to better those levels, then recent weeks of rally would only amount to a large Wave 2. Begins to look that way.
Aggressive declines this week (coincident to end-of-month settlements) hint the decline at least begins a Wave 3 down. Although (on early futures) a pause briefly for fresh rounds of hype-nosis is likely.
Although it would be graceful to see a brief rally to above 3,300 on the S&P, it might only kiss the 4-day or 13-day moving averages.
The lower blue band in this chart snip suggests if we break below the wave 1 down, then the lower edge of the right “trading box” could materialize. For now, we’re not anticipating that until we “Pass the Election and Enter Chaos.”
If Chaos drops by, then a “stopping point” 10% down (around 3,000 on the S&P) might be an interesting level to watch. Opinions are like what?
The Greater Mystery in Data
We have several numbers to consider (so early!):
GDP is the first. As combined with the soaring Fed printing, we will take a guess this weekend at the crater created by imploding velocity. For now, the “recovery happy talk” such as it is, reads this way:
“Real gross domestic product (GDP) increased at an annual rate of 33.1 percent in the third quarter of 2020 (table 1), according to the “advance” estimate released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. In the second quarter, real GDP decreased 31.4 percent.
If you’re thinking “That chart doesn’t look right…”
Well, you’d be right. But, let the old dime-store MBA explain it. Say you have a baseline 100 and you drop 33%. Now you’re at 66. Then you go up 35%: are you even? Hell no! You’re at 89.1. But the CHART looks good to people who are gullible and don’t grok math!
Similarly, the weekly new unemployment claims keep piling up, but it’s not the end of the world. As long as you’re not one of them:
“In the week ending October 24, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 751,000, a decrease of 40,000 from the previous week’s revised level. The previous week’s level was revised up by 4,000 from 787,000 to 791,000. The 4-week moving average was 787,750, a decrease of 24,500 from the previous week’s revised average. The previous week’s average was revised up by 1,000 from 811,250 to 812,250.
The advance seasonally adjusted insured unemployment rate was 5.3 percent for the week ending October 17, a decrease of 0.5 percentage point from the previous week’s revised rate. “
Not sure of the Greater Mystery? Let us assume that the September 2 highs hold. Further, that the pending decline will continue (in chaos) down to the blue band. Perhaps by inauguration day.
We would expect a “great fake-out” to appear in January. On words of comfort from the president, much pomp and hyping-stance about new vaccines, and a nice progressive “motivation session.”
Which should wear off in mid to late Spring.
CV-19 Waves 1 and 2
The longer-term danger of CV-19 coverage in the [ungrounded] press is what we believe will be seen in the future as premature labeling of Wave 2. In our view, Wave 2 isn’t remotely here yet. Common sense and belief in waves of Nature, offers us a view ahead like this:
Our simple (and sole) guidance is the “run” enjoyed by the Spanish flu that ran “February 1918 to April 1920.” That’s a 26-month run. To even articulate that Wave 2 is underway now reflects, I think, “a storm of mental confusion.” Overdose of hopium, perhaps?
A late winter pop in 3-4 months (beginning Wave 2, 1 up), seems more realistic when calibrating economic expectations.
Curse of Lazy New Consumers
Information warfare is not hard to apprehend: When media and one political party line up on one side of an issue, cognitive dissonances within the newsuserpop becomes unavoidable. That, Trump “Russia Collusion” – has been disproven, remains widely believed, while “Hunter as bag man for Joe” is comparatively more solid yet censored by leftist media, belies the Digital Uprising.
But, it doesn’t matter. Because exploiters of Digital Mob Rule – include Zuckerberg and Dorsey – are manipulating toward a leftist future.
Can’t fix that, but it’s useful to become research-driven if you’re not already. Sadly, when it comes to a simple medical outlook, people are too lazy to “search the science.” Easier to drink the mainstream Kool-Aid.
You need to know that on the low side, the Herd Immunity Threshold (HIT) for communicable disease runs 33-44% getting sick for flu and Covid-19 from 50-80% of the population infected.
If that’s the case, and given America has 326-million people, a “high flu, low CV-19) level (48%) would be needed for herd immunity to begin. That’d be 156-million Americans with CV-19.
In our projections, that implies Peak Covid based on HIT in July 2021.
While this might be moderated by a successful new vaccine, our plans are to avoid vaccination until at least the 1-year general distribution level. Until then, we will continue self quarantining (and Cloroxing all arriving goods).
For now, it’s all looking like a Big Pharma Bailout for $1,250 per dose medical experiments. We’ll pass.
We’ll monitor, but post-election, we’re anticipating a change in the Covid narrative.
As I explained on the Peoplenomics site, I’ve had a recent vivid dream that told me the most critical thing to security in 2021 will be food supplies; “money” isn’t the problem. Urban Survival is. Water, Food, Freedom…the first two of which will be controlled to steal the third.
The Grand Mystery
Global Depressions change the economic balance of Earth. Like the one we see forming.
As the 1930s event rolled out, London was the financial center of the Universe. But, just as the U.S.A. ascended to the “throne of international economic supremacy” (a decades-long coronation ceremony that includes a World War) after 20-years challenging, we see events “gearing” to install China as the new Center of the Economic Universe.
The Big Change begins with the Ant Group IPO. While the Wall St. Journal says this $34-billion offering will benefit some elites (“Ant IPO Promises $8 Billion Gain for Elite Group of Foreign Investors
In 2018, the financial-technology giant raised $10.3 billion in its first and only private sale of stock to institutions outside China”), there’s more to it.
This will not be a one-off event. We understand that China is planning a series of IPOs in coming months that will suck HUGE amounts of money into the Asia markets dominated by China.
Since China’s already a U.S. creditor, the situation will result in a “post economic war” setting that will leave the (Covid) emptied valleys of Wall St. reprising the role of the (sour grapes) City in London. The airs of economic superiority will persist, but the Ant Group IPO is the lever (fulcrum, then?) about which the financial universe is being rearranged in the Grand Historical Context.
All of which now circles us to the headline of today’s column:
Biden Bust or Kam Crash?
Assembly of the “daily mystery” of markets (down) and the weekly-monthly zoom (more disease to come) results in a Grand Mystery of power replacement of the USA by China.
Having cleaned out useful U.S. assets, China’s new five year economic plan stresses ‘sustainable’ growth—and self-reliance in the tech sector. Oh, and that includes mastery of drone-swarm technology to kill American air power. Or, Taiwanese….
Toss in the growing drought, however?
Clearly, there is potential for a future where food is the weapon of choice for one side and [more] epicanthally-targeted bioweapons the choice of the other.
Psst…wanna buy a war? “Russian Agents Offered 10K Soldiers to Aid Catalan Separatists – Reports.”
Screw the voters? Did you see the press release on the latest hiding of data from voters?
“SAN FRANCISCO–(BUSINESS WIRE)–Federal district court judge Maxine M. Chesney (a Clinton appointee-gu) has dismissed the American Small Business League’s summary judgement motion for the release of the names of all firms that received PPP loans. The ASBL has requested the information under the Freedom of Information Act. Judge Chesney vacated the ASBL’s summary judgement motion, which means that it’s highly unlikely that the names of firms that received PPP loans of $150,000 or less will be released before the election. “
Gee, why are we not surprised?
Warming up the radicals: More looting hits Philadelphia despite curfew.
File under “Turd with the last Word”. Both parties got crooked on this, let’s be real, here.
Several years ago, we laid out the battle between Amazon and Wal-Mart in “Bezos & Bentonville: Barbarians at the Mall. (PN Library) “ Today, we continue tracking that macrotrend by bringing “Walmart turns four stores into e-commerce laboratories as online sales surge to your attention.
That’s more than enough to ponder, don’t you think?
Back to the fall in the Fall now. Just don’t slip up and miss tomorrow.
Write when you get rich (but 3 comments per day per reader max, please!) Unlike socialist media, we do care what people post and since we haven’t bought off political parties for favors to protect us in turn for election rigging…