Self Fulfilling News?
As we grind through the final lousy hours of the election cycle, we’re eyeing a number of stories that smack of media manipulation, to us. The idea being that if you grind and predict a certain outcome or future into people, they will act in a manner to make it so.
With this in mind, all we need to do is look at the rolling headlines to see what’s fact and what’s projection. A few examples:
- Let’s begin with the Washington Post’s syndicated piece “As Election Day nears, Trump ponders the prospect of defeat” from over here. We laugh because along with the NY Times, the Washington Post bought the disproven Steele dossier hook, line, and sinker. Then cheered a three-year insurrection in the House to unseat an elected president.
- NBC, on the other hand, in the report “How a fake persona laid the groundwork for a Hunter Biden conspiracy deluge” is clearly shifting attention. From the Hunter Biden laptop (still being investigated by the FBI) to “distractions.” Ought to help Joe, a bit.
- Then there are uncountable stories driving to a foregone conclusion from the voting. Such as 538’s “Democrats are favored to win the Senate.“
- Another example? See Mother Jones “The Crazy Last Days of Rudy Giuliani and Steve Bannon” though it’s more factual than many reports out there.
- But throughout the media – which is already insinuating the Biden-Harris ticket an accomplished fact – there’s an underlying current of “Oh boy, things are going to get better now.” Played into by Nasty Nancy herself as the toutress-in-chief. “Pelosi wants ‘big’ health care, infrastructure push in 2021.” We label this same-old politics; aging political bullshit. If Nancy wanted these things, where was the push in 2016? 2017? 2018? 2019? Too busy with the Shifty guy trying to pull of a coup as we call it.
- And see if this isn’t suspiciously timed: UPS Suddenly Locates “Lost” Biden Evidence, Returning Docs To Tucker Carlson. Hmm…
Problem is, the mind actualizes as told (which is why ‘self-talk’ is so critical). We therefore expect the social/media public to produce the programmed Biden result. Not happy about it, but clear thinking is not an American expertise lately.
I was talking with a friend of 48-years (Gaye Levy, StrategicLivingBlog.com) who said “Yeah, we’re going to stay up and watch it…how about you guys?”
“Naw. Another night in the woods. We’ll get up Wednesday, the outcome will still be debated, and won’t really be “in the bag” until December 14th when the Electoral College meets…”
Between closing of polls, and winner decision if not immediately Biden (though media will proclaim that anyway), the left will be gearing up to “intimidate America” into the socialist outcome despite voting irregularities we expect will come to light.
We also expect “light up prime time” which will reveal Portland as a dry run for the “national coup attempt next week. ” If the election isn’t clear? When there were be questions…questionable conduct…and it will be on both sides.
Biden Bust To Continue?
Probably. While we’re waiting on the Molotov’s, investors are already “voting with their wallets” down on Wall Street. In the early futures, the Dow was down 227 and the S&P down more than 27 points.
My view is investors are looking at Biden’s debt to the radical left and are beginning to factor-in the worst case outcomes (though nearly givens):
- Biden has promised to roll back Trump tax cuts. This will decrease disposable incomes. Consumer spending may decline.
- Biden promises more aggressive CV-19 – which we read as more lock-ins. More intrusion, slowing recovery, driving recession.
- Biden is likely to impose tough new rules on fracking (lies to the contrary on the stump, notwithstanding). Which will decrease U.S. energy output, drive us back into the clutches of the Middle East. Balance of trade impacts by 2022.
- Where we expect Biden will turn around the de-escalation in the Middle East region. Defense stocks may prosper under Biden.
- Then there will be Kamala’s Gang of Four Green New Deal. Biden will rope America back into the Paris Accords. Further reducing American competitiveness because the Accords don’t treat all countries equally. It’s mainly U.S. climate-shaming sold by the globalist-socialist alliance with Soros et al behind the curtain.
- And there’s final round of playing of the “Race Card.” Which is how we read CNN’s Whether Trump or Biden, the fight for racial justice is key. Offsetting this “He Assured Us He Will Get It Done” – Lil Wayne Meets With Trump On Plan To Financially Empower Black Americans.
One other thing the Bidenista’s are likely to do: Make up even more money. Following the delusional track of Mugabe’s Zimbabwe economic disaster. Doubt me?
A Check of H.6
It’s not like the Fed hasn’t already screwed the Modern Monetary Theory Pooch (and sold the pups) just to hold America together this far. In the H.6 Money stocks confessional this week:
Let’s do a little Economics lesson here, shall we? Let’s begin by going back to April 20 and get a reading on our Aggregate Index of U.S. markets, shall we?
The level then was 24441.85. At the close Thursday, the Index was 29787.25.
If we apply the M1 inflation to the 24,441.85 level, we ought to be up around 38,471.47. Instead, we’re at the 29.787.25 number. This informs us that not all the made-up money made it into stocks. Just enough of it to keep the illusion going.
The Fed’s got other things to buy: Collateralized mortgages, bonds, and lots of other “assets” to keep the bailing wire and bubble gum from imploding.
With such a festive table setting, let’s now sit down to a breakfast of data.
You like sketchy? Economics that don’t really tie-back to Reality? Then bubba, this morning’s Personal Income report is your cuppa tea:
“Personal income increased $170.3 billion (0.9 percent) in September according to estimates released today by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (tables 3 and 5). Disposable personal income (DPI) increased $150.3 billion (0.9 percent) and personal consumption expenditures (PCE) increased $201.4 billion (1.4 percent).
Real DPI increased 0.7 percent in September and Real PCE increased 1.2 percent (tables 5 and 7). The PCE price index increased 0.2 percent (table 9). Excluding food and energy, the PCE price index increased 0.2 percent.”
As we are fond of pointing out, things like paying down a credit card can be argued as savings and so can a house payment. After all, you’re “buying equity” goes the idea. And there’s some truth to it.
Which is why we tend to focus on consumer discretionary – though that’s misleading, too. The result if a fog – more subject to hype than rigorous analysis. With a double-shot of “It is what it is” on the side.
Here’s another marginally useful number: Cost labor to build stuff.
“Compensation costs for civilian workers increased 0.5 percent, seasonally adjusted, for the 3-month period ending in September 2020, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Wages and salaries increased 0.4 percent and benefit costs increased 0.6 percent from June 2020.
Compensation costs for civilian workers increased 2.4 percent for the 12-month period ending in September 2020 and increased 2.8 percent in September 2019. Wages and salaries increased 2.5 percent over the year and increased 2.9 percent for the 12-month period ending in September 2019. Benefit costs increased 2.3 percent and also increased 2.3 percent for the 12-month period ending in September 2019.”
After the number, the stock market was trying to put on a “show rally” but our sense is that holding a long position over the weekend going into an election which seems headed for a contentious ending (but not known for weeks) looks like a poor investment choice.
Remember at all times, there are THREE investment choices regardless of what anyone claims: Long, short, and cash. Only the last one works as well as melatonin.
The Socialist Agenda Check
The hard sell on climate is coming – back on as “Australia’s Bushfires Burned an Area Twice the Size of Florida. Climate Change Means That’s Just the Beginning, a New Report Warns.” Hmm…was the Dust Bowl in the last Depression “climate change?” We will be asking this a lot as the economy craters and Blame 2021 begins.
Over on ZeroHedge, check out Plutocrat Violence And Election-Night Horror: Marxian Analysis Shows That Antifa Is Fascist. Well, of course they are…duh.
Great Trend Data
Seen in Fortune’s take on how the American Tech picture is changing. Tech is becoming a competency not a be-all, end-all unto itself.
Long our view, too. With it, time to ask if 2020 will be the peak of Bay Area real estate? Is the California Real Estate Cycle about to head down? Forbes got a scent of it last year. But now Fortune fills in data:
“Second, but related, while the San Francisco Bay Area continues to lead the way in blitz-scaling, only 17 of the fastest growing companies this year were based there—and that includes only one of the top ten: Netflix (#5). The companies hailed from 24 different states of the U.S., and six countries outside the U.S. That includes companies like Brooklyn-based Etsy (#8) and Illinois-based Paylocity (#9). Alibaba (#14), based in Hangzhou, China, was the top-ranked company outside the U.S.”
The whole article by Alan Murray and David Meyer is on the Fortune site here. “What Fortune’s Fastest Growing Companies list says about the economy.” It’s worth a read if only to renew your acquaintance with actual reporting of trends. This is not press-release rewrite crap. Good reporting – well done.
We Just Know…
…you’ve been staying up all night, anxious to learn “How the intricacy of termite nests inspired the design of a Swedish school…”
But, here’s a more pertinent trend: Pop machines to Pot Machines? “As new cannabis vending machines hit the market, challenges remain…” They sell lighters and screens, too?
Say, that reminds me: Time to head to the liquor store today. All this election coverage has driven us to drink. Time we do something about that.
Daylight Democracy Ending
Seems cruelly ironic how it works out. Daylight Savings Time ends Sunday. Vote Tuesday. After springing ahead, America is about to “fall back” next week.
Why can’t America vote on an Equinox – when all things are more equal and balanced? Instead we get “seasonal affects disorder” elections.
You know January is the “saddest month of the year,” right? Speaks volumes about inauguration day, mentions Ure, glumly.
Write when you get rich, (We’ll be in “bubblier spirits” – and back in our “Urban After Sunrise” groove after the election. Either way, supporting whoever the Electoral College names. Just not the one with the bag man, please.)