Aye, roger that.  To the idea that the 71.916 year war/social cycle could actually be an 80-year cycle.

So run this past your first cup this morning:

U.S. declared itself in 1776.  But a closer date would be 1780.  By then, it was becoming clear that we were on the hard path to independence.

Now add 80-years.  Which gets us to the U.S. Civil War (which wasn’t).  Major social upheaval was underway.  People vs. people and bad ideas like slavery were done away with.  To some extent, though, it was really a war over substitution.  The human capital (slaves) were replaced with mechanical capital.

80-years on?  We arrive at World War II – 1940.  Again, another techno revolution.  Electricity and mass manufacturing had arrived and begun to fundamentally change how America evolved.  Hitler was burning some of his human capital which in America we mobilized and “saved the world.”   Though, as more than one history book has alleged, the U.S. was guilty of goading Japan into the war…

Now roll in another 80 years.  Brings us to 2020 and when – by all manner of calculations – we will be deep in the kimchee again.,

Again, as in wars past, we will be in a “substitution” war.  Computers and networks  will have changed how business operates.  Further, there will be several “next technologies” along.  A.I. for example.  Custom mass manufacturing – almost like the 3-D printers will become the latter-day Holodeck from Star Trek.

As I’ve told you, my consigliere and talk frequently about the competing models.  His work (from 1979 on) was centered on the 72-year periodicity.  And in a note from a jetliner somewhere over the Midwest, he noted a very interesting remark by Strauss and Howe in The Fourth Turning: An American Prophecy – What the Cycles of History Tell Us About America’s Next Rendezvous with Destiny which will resolved.  Specifically:

“Before Appomattox, the “United States” has been a plural noun; afterward, it became singular.”

Strauss and Howe’s work involves the Saeculum.  It makes totally-left-brain people a bit nuts because, like so many statistical problems,, it more a distribution than some absolute number.

A saeculum is a length of time roughly equal to the potential lifetime of a person or, equivalently, of the complete renewal of a human population. The term was first used by the Etruscans.

Where the saeculum falls, and when global change occurs, is becoming more clear by the day.

We’re anticipating that the turn now upon us will be another one of those substitution moves.  We’ve gone from human capital to machine capital, to production’/distribution capital, and now we’re in information capital.

We can’t be sure how it will all work out.  But it’s the shift that does the damage; when people realize en masse that “change” is here.

With change comes displacement.  The 2008 Obama campaign slogan “Change!” offers the aware person guidance on how saecula evolve.  That change was the Housing Crisis.

Jordan Peterson’s book “12 Rules for Life: An Antidote to Chaos.”  One of his better ideas is that before people can make things better, they must stop making things worse.

Where you will fit ,into the upcoming change will, therefore, to some degree be bounded by how well you’ve done “stopping making things worse.”

The pre-shift “change”  is already underway on social media.  But the realization that it’s not all the me,. me, me movement, but that everyone has a view, is slow to get hold.  Which is why we’re expecting lots of internet regulation shortly.  Whether it’s a federal bureaucracy, or whether it’s outright licensure, government cannot persist in a national where runaway factionalism and competing errant behaviors run amuck.

Not to ramble on, but in addition to the U.S. 80-year cycle, we look at the global 72-year trend and compare life expectancy.  The present U.S. life expectancy (saeculum) is 78.9 years.  The global number is 71.5-years.

So, when I tell you what’s likely ahead, and preparing for it the best you can, we’re expecting the US to be a late entrant into the global festivities because our clock runs slightly longer.

Not sure if that’s anywhere near comforting, but that’s the data.  And people get all twisted up by the data because – as Peterson notes – humans are pretty much emotionally-driven rather than logic-applying.

Were it not so.

What’s “In Theater?”

Oh…money, war, and social movements.  Same as any other point in history.

On the money side, we have some fresh data just out on Producer Prices:

“The Producer Price Index for final demand rose 0.6 percent in March, seasonally adjusted, the
U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Final demand prices edged up 0.1 percent in February and decreased 0.1 percent in January. (See table A.)

On an unadjusted basis, the final demand index increased 2.2 percent for the 12 months ended in March, the largest 12-month rise since a 2.5-percent advance in December 2018.

In March, over 60 percent of the increase in the index for final demand can be traced to a 1.0-percent advance in prices for final demand goods. The index for final demand services moved up 0.3 percent.

The index for final demand less foods, energy, and trade services was unchanged in March following a 0.1-percent advance in February. For the 12 months ended in March, prices for final demand less foods, energy, and trade services rose 2.0 percent.

Final demand:  Final demand goods: The index for final demand goods moved up 1.0 percent in March, the largest
advance since a 1.0-percent rise in May 2015. In March, over 80 percent of the broad-based increase can be traced to prices for final demand energy, which jumped 5.6 percent. The index for final demand goods less foods and energy rose 0.2 percent. Prices for final demand foods advanced 0.3 percent.

After the number, looked like the Dow would keep edging up toward target levels. +24 at click-time.

Stay tuned:  Will this set up the “Sell in May and go away…” this year?

Battle Zone Reports

Pakistan army takes journalists on tour of Indian air attack site.  While, unfortunately, Pakistan is on the road to conflict in part because monetizing war is big business.  See “What does Pakistan need to close its air defense gaps?” for details.

North of there, Kid Korea and the simmering nuke piles isn’t solved.  President Trump Faces Tough Decision on North Korea at White House Today, says Time.

Next, Social Movements

The Second War with Mexico is still on, near as we can figure.  See today’s Wall St, Journal for “The Court-Ordered Caravan Deluge: The anti-Trump ‘resistance’ includes judges making the border mess worse.”  Which we’ve been telling you for how long?

And hats off to Bob Iger of Disney who is quoted in Variety this morning as saying that  “Hate and anger” (on social media) is dragging the world toward the abyss again.”

This gets me to the bottom line of this morning. Rational, logical behavior is on the way out. Obsolete globally, near as we can figure it.  And irrational emotionalism is ascending.

The Digital Uprising will no doubt be slowed with the arrest overnight of Wikileaks’ Julian Assange.  And in our count of social movement’s role in opinion-making, Pamela Anderson blasts Britain, US after Julian Assange arrest: ‘How could you U.K.?’ fits somewhere.  We’re just not sure where.

Meantime, it’s no surprise (because leaks weaken America) that Russia urges UK to observe Assange’s rights.  Uh-huh….

Another UrbanSurvival Score!

I told you long ago that we would not be putting a lot of time or energy into social media.  The reason was simple:  We didn’t trust social media tycoons not to hold our audience hostage – which is exactly what they’ve done.  We just called the “clicks on the wall” well in advance.

It’s therefore with some pride in sound judgment that we notice “Lush Cosmetics UK Will No Longer Use Social Media — Here’s Why.”  Key quote?

We are tired of fighting with algorithms, and we do not want to pay to appear in your newsfeed. So we’ve decided it’s time to bid farewell to some of our social channels and open up the conversation between you and us instead”

They obviously don’t want to become “digital hostages” and we totally “get it.”  Saw it coming, told you it was coming, and guess what’s here?

Which is exactly why UrbanSurvival discussion forums are locally hosted and you’re not ad-slammed or tracked (except by Google Ads).  Even then, we still have our content visible even with ad blockers on.

Don’t know as you’ve noticed, but here at the end of Babel II, people have gone daft.

The best – and perhaps only – antidote for global insanity is to ask yourself at every turn:  “Is what I am doing, absolutely rational?  Would a totally logical person, one who is not emotionally-invested in my life and causes, but running their own,, make the same decisions I am?”

Totally logical behavior; and data stripped of emotions, is how we try to operate around here.  We look at the world, trying to set emotions aside and analyze what’s left in the way of facts.

The process in  painful.  Whether you’re looking at social media, potential for global war, impact of the tax cuts, or prospects of having a happy family.  It’s always the data matters.

And then comes change, once again.  72-year cycle or 80?  Ask me in three years because by then, the data will have firmed-up.

Everyone’s a Criminal Now

In a world where, lemme see:  race, gender, preference, national origin, weather, personal data, and everything else that’s not nailed down is being monetized because we are all crazed by the brass ring of “growth”  even going through a traffic light wrong has been automated and monetized.

Forget the small constitutional detail of not being able to confront your accuser in Court, this is process crime run wild.

Curiously, A small town in California is ahead of Texas in dialing back “automatic crime and punishment” as “Menlo Park Puts The Brakes On Red Light Traffic Camera Program.”

Here in Texas, a bill to ban red light cameras is likely to die this session. Whoever the registered owner is remains on the hook for such convictions without an accuser which is totally fox-trot uniformed.

As Expected…

Snow, ice making Midwest travel dangerous.  As we told you it would.

Think I will chill today.  Moron the morrow.

Import Prices, Future Forecast
Renting Your Life, II