First thing out of the hopper today is the import prices report.  The reason we watch this one so closely is that America has become more and most distanced from self-sufficiency.

Because so much of our life is “made elsewhere” watching import prices will often times gives you a good sense of what to anticipate in your own life going forward.

“U.S. import prices increased 0.6 percent in March, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today,
following a 1.0-percent rise in February. Both the March and February advances were driven by higher fuel
prices. Prices for U.S. exports rose 0.7 percent for the second consecutive month in March. Both agricultural and nonagricultural prices contributed to the increase.

Imports   Prices for U.S. imports advanced 0.6 percent in March and 1.7 percent in the first 3 months of 2019. The increase for the 3 months ended in March was the largest 3-month rise since the index advanced 1.9 percent between October 2017 and January 2018. The import price index recorded no change over the past 12 months.

Exports   The price ind x for U.S. exports advanced 0.7 percent in March, after increasing 0.7 percent the previous month. Those increases followed 0.6-percent declines in January and December. Prices for nonagricultural and agricultural exports each contributed to the overall advance in March. U.S. export prices rose 0.6 percent over the past 12 months.

Drill-down:

import-export prices table

Stock futures were pointing to a gain of more than 220 on the Dow at the open following the data release.

If the Dow can manage to close up 250 points, and other indices included in our Aggregated Markets view of things holds, we would see our index cross above a critical level which would clear the way for a major sell-off to occur in coming weeks.

In Elliott Wave terms, we did a major face-plant into Christmas (wave 1 down) and unless we go on to new highs, we are (after today potentially) at the top of a wave 2 bounce.

As my friend Robin Landry notes, people are as optimistic at the top of Wave 2’s as they were at the top of all-time highs.

That would move the future in the direction of a good-sized potential decline in May-June (which might be 1 down of the larger 3 that would follow this big 2 we have been in since Christmas Eve).  After that, a summer rally and then screaming collapse in the fall.

That will be a year ahead of the November 3, 2020 presidential election where in the world of historical rhymes, we will get a democrat/socialist president who will take over a cratered economy and see that the only way to restart the economy will be a major war.

Think of 2020 as election of the Franklin Roosevelt persona but with nukes, bio-weapons, AI, and a population with nothing left to confiscate.

A grand time will be had by all.

War?  What War?

The one in India-Pakistan’s hotly contested Pakistan Occupied Kashmir (PoK), silly.

Pakistan army takes journalists on tour of Indian air attack site.  There, India says it killed a large group of “terrorists.” The reports out of the sites suggest India is lying.

Since there are elections going on in India now…well, a rerun of “Wag the Dog” perhaps?

We won’t need the flash goggles till mid-summer, or so.

Meantime, the US is “tweaking” China as “US Warship Sails Near Disputed Island in South China Sea.”

Of course, the coming SlowGloWar (slow-build, global nuclear) is not on the mind of simple Americans.  Instead, the left-leaning media is whipping up distractions all over the place. Which gets us to this morning’s smelly…

In the Shorts

U.S. Senator Warner eyes social media bills for hate speech, data portability.

At some point, we expect the democrats will come out with regulations to limit politicians (like Trump) from going consumer-direct with Twitter.  That would be a huge boost for the mainstream media and may explain why they lean so liberal.  Life is full of equal and opposite reactions, is it not?

Manic Hyperbole Award

Got to print up a “Weather Hyperbole Award” today for NPR.

This for the headline “‘Bomb Cyclone’ Shutters Schools, Makes Roads Impassable In Central U.S..

And why were we NOT surprised that the word “climate” was not referenced in the report?  Perhaps because actual colder weather doesn’t fit the over-sold climate change hyper.  Besides, that would undermine the global government tax scam behind the climate hype…tisk, tisk.

Dear Sanctuary/Open Border Supporter

Honduran man charged with raping, killing jogger in New Jersey had been deported twice.

Also for those of the liberal mindset:  Georgetown students vote (non-binding)  for reparations to descendants of slaves who made school possible.  Which proves, near as we can figure, that students are willing to spend mom and dad’s money.

But we give it 4-stars as a smart PR pivot to shift attention off pedophilia allegations against the Catholic church and onto a replacement narrative about reparations.  Well played PR gambit by the church, don’t you think?

On that note, I see it’s time for another cynical pill, so hide the pigs, chickens, and flaps Jack; it’s off to another grand slam of a day.  Moron the ‘morrow.

Prepping: Being Judgmental is Good
World on a Short Social Fuse