Import Prices, Future Forecast

First thing out of the hopper today is the import prices report.  The reason we watch this one so closely is that America has become more and most distanced from self-sufficiency.

Because so much of our life is “made elsewhere” watching import prices will often times gives you a good sense of what to anticipate in your own life going forward.

“U.S. import prices increased 0.6 percent in March, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today,
following a 1.0-percent rise in February. Both the March and February advances were driven by higher fuel
prices. Prices for U.S. exports rose 0.7 percent for the second consecutive month in March. Both agricultural and nonagricultural prices contributed to the increase.

Imports   Prices for U.S. imports advanced 0.6 percent in March and 1.7 percent in the first 3 months of 2019. The increase for the 3 months ended in March was the largest 3-month rise since the index advanced 1.9 percent between October 2017 and January 2018. The import price index recorded no change over the past 12 months.

Exports   The price ind x for U.S. exports advanced 0.7 percent in March, after increasing 0.7 percent the previous month. Those increases followed 0.6-percent declines in January and December. Prices for nonagricultural and agricultural exports each contributed to the overall advance in March. U.S. export prices rose 0.6 percent over the past 12 months.

Drill-down:

import-export prices table

Stock futures were pointing to a gain of more than 220 on the Dow at the open following the data release.

If the Dow can manage to close up 250 points, and other indices included in our Aggregated Markets view of things holds, we would see our index cross above a critical level which would clear the way for a major sell-off to occur in coming weeks.

In Elliott Wave terms, we did a major face-plant into Christmas (wave 1 down) and unless we go on to new highs, we are (after today potentially) at the top of a wave 2 bounce.

As my friend Robin Landry notes, people are as optimistic at the top of Wave 2’s as they were at the top of all-time highs.

That would move the future in the direction of a good-sized potential decline in May-June (which might be 1 down of the larger 3 that would follow this big 2 we have been in since Christmas Eve).  After that, a summer rally and then screaming collapse in the fall.

That will be a year ahead of the November 3, 2020 presidential election where in the world of historical rhymes, we will get a democrat/socialist president who will take over a cratered economy and see that the only way to restart the economy will be a major war.

Think of 2020 as election of the Franklin Roosevelt persona but with nukes, bio-weapons, AI, and a population with nothing left to confiscate.

A grand time will be had by all.

War?  What War?

The one in India-Pakistan’s hotly contested Pakistan Occupied Kashmir (PoK), silly.

Pakistan army takes journalists on tour of Indian air attack site.  There, India says it killed a large group of “terrorists.” The reports out of the sites suggest India is lying.

Since there are elections going on in India now…well, a rerun of “Wag the Dog” perhaps?

We won’t need the flash goggles till mid-summer, or so.

Meantime, the US is “tweaking” China as “US Warship Sails Near Disputed Island in South China Sea.”

Of course, the coming SlowGloWar (slow-build, global nuclear) is not on the mind of simple Americans.  Instead, the left-leaning media is whipping up distractions all over the place. Which gets us to this morning’s smelly…

In the Shorts

U.S. Senator Warner eyes social media bills for hate speech, data portability.

At some point, we expect the democrats will come out with regulations to limit politicians (like Trump) from going consumer-direct with Twitter.  That would be a huge boost for the mainstream media and may explain why they lean so liberal.  Life is full of equal and opposite reactions, is it not?

Manic Hyperbole Award

Got to print up a “Weather Hyperbole Award” today for NPR.

This for the headline “‘Bomb Cyclone’ Shutters Schools, Makes Roads Impassable In Central U.S..

And why were we NOT surprised that the word “climate” was not referenced in the report?  Perhaps because actual colder weather doesn’t fit the over-sold climate change hyper.  Besides, that would undermine the global government tax scam behind the climate hype…tisk, tisk.

Dear Sanctuary/Open Border Supporter

Honduran man charged with raping, killing jogger in New Jersey had been deported twice.

Also for those of the liberal mindset:  Georgetown students vote (non-binding)  for reparations to descendants of slaves who made school possible.  Which proves, near as we can figure, that students are willing to spend mom and dad’s money.

But we give it 4-stars as a smart PR pivot to shift attention off pedophilia allegations against the Catholic church and onto a replacement narrative about reparations.  Well played PR gambit by the church, don’t you think?

On that note, I see it’s time for another cynical pill, so hide the pigs, chickens, and flaps Jack; it’s off to another grand slam of a day.  Moron the ‘morrow.

28 thoughts on “Import Prices, Future Forecast”

  1. George

    “Of course, the coming SlowGloWar (slow-build, global nuclear) is not on the mind of simple Americans.”

    It looks like Bread and Circuses Redux in America.

    Sports, Sports, Sports, that’s all so many people care about.

    It looks like any kind of sports activity that can be made into a monetized activity is being funneled into American life.

    Here in the New Orleans area it’s Rugby. Just give it some time and there will be rugby teams in every major city and all the hoopla associated with a sports league.

    What next, Tiddly Winks?

    And New Rome aka America burns!!!

  2. The Dims seem to wantonly precipitate an economic collapse, as evidenced by U.S. Senator (D) Rob Wyden’s proposal to tax capital gains as income and unrealized capital gains, perhaps decades before an investor sells. See: https://www.wsj.com/articles/ron-wydens-plan-to-drain-investors-11554937146

    As the WSJ notes, the ‘Dim’ plan is “to attack wealth creation.” Vlad Lenin once said “the way to crush the bourgeoisie is to grind them between the milstone of taxation and inflation.” Sen. Wyden must have read Lenin’s ‘April Theses’ cover-to-cover! He might do better adhering to the tenets of the Fifth Amendment to the U.S. Constitution, wherein the government shall not deprive citizens of “life, liberty, or property” without due process of law.

    • People get the government that they deserve. How sad. If we allow idiots the right to eat our seed corn, if we can’t hide it, then the only smart move is to eat it ourselves first. Rather than investing and building value and wealth, we’re better off enjoying ourselves until either we die or it’s the end of our wealth. Either way, it won’t be stolen.

    • That’s what happens when an Alinskyite figures out Cloward–Piven, designed to weaponize the poor by overloading the welfare system beyond collapse, could be used to weaponize any dependent group, by overloading ANY public system. Cloward–Piven is the driving ideology behind the border rush, the ACA, and other less-obvious, but no-less insidious “overloads” within our political and economic systems.

      The “Liberal solution” to any socioeconomic problem, is generally “simple common sense” — That is: It sounds really good. So good in fact, that only a simpleton would not support it. ‘Problem is, it’s never really simple, and it’s always unworkable, unrealistic, or unaffordable, and often a combination of the three.

      I tell my Liberal friends to take nothing a politician says at face value, but simply “run the numbers.” They’re consistently too stupid or too lazy to do so, or they do it once, have the result slap them in the face, and thenceforth avoid and ignore, because both the truth and a figurative backhand are too painful for them to process.

      Something EVERY kollege(sic) kid and closet socialist should have explained to them: In Marx’ writing, “bourgeoisie” is NOT the “wealthy” or “upper class,” it is the middle class. Marx didn’t hate the wealthy. Hell, he WAS one. He hated the tradesmen and artisans, the nouveau riche, or what we call “upper middle class” because he considered “middle class” to be an aberration to his two-class, caste, ideology, and middle class people as patently offensive.

      Lenin was a true Marxist…

    • Wyden, like most on his side, is just a communist in Democrat clothing!
      The establishment of “sanctuary cities & states (I refuse to capitalize) and the unbridled invasion of illegals, their unending cries for ‘universal health care’ (the only ways to really do this is to stay away from doctors (pill & vaccine pushers, and eat well).
      All of this is just the Cloward-Piven strategy (communist professors paid with our tax money) to overload the system to destroy it – destroy the country to save it!

  3. Why can’t deported illegals be geo-chipped?The technology is extremely accurate for sports betting.New Yorkers are riding bicycles over the GWB to NJ where they can bet legally on their phones.

    • If we wish to retain the moral high ground, we won’t put anything under the skin of any person – including illegal aliens. We have plenty of ways to identify these people if/when they re-invade our country. Just get rid of them.

      Chips can and will be either removed or destroyed in-situ anyway, so they’re not just wrong – they’re ineffective.

      • Am I the only one who has gone through Global Entry automated passport control recently. You stick your face in the camera and up pops your name WITHOUT first scanning the passport or entering any identifiers. No chips necessary!

    • Why do we tolerate “law breakers” in the first place?

      Is it all just a grand joke on us, perhaps? (We are ruled by our, not always clear,b emotions). Case closed!

  4. Really hate the constant adds on your reports now. It is frustrating to deal with them..

    • The best comment exchanges now happen two or three days out. This leads to some fairly in-depth commentary. Commentators gotta stay on their toes to defend their turf. It also escalates G____’s click-throughs.

  5. With April 15 nearing, I would like to remind the small business owners, professionals and early f__kees (retirees) who are paying full price for a private health insurance policy through the Exchange to scrutinize your return for the Premium Tax Credit, and remember, the form 1095-A that was sent to you by the Exchange is frequently wrong. The enrolled tax agents have figured out how to recalculate the correct values from published IRS tables, based on your adjusted income and several other factors. This can result in getting a refund on most of the money that was stolen from you by the insurance company to pay for the health insurance deadbeats getting a free ride.
    When the beltway leftists re-engineered the insurance system under Obama, they were left with a serious obstacle, how to pay for it. So, the leftist black shirts and the leftist brown shirts came up with a compromise solution. The system was set up to bill the government for the deadbeats’ share, but then the government simply refused to make the payments directly to the insurance companies. This forced the few insurance companies left in the private policy market to shift the payment burden of the deadbeats to the other payees, who are mostly small business owners, professionals, and early retirees. At least one of the major insurance companies sent a letter to their customers asking them to sign a statement allowing them to steal the money voluntarily. I hope that no one actually signed and returned that document. Then the insurance companies proceeded to steal the money anyway.
    The funding of the discounted Exchange policies is an unconstitutional political tax which disproportionately targets independents, libertarians, and yes, even teaparty business folk. This targeting of groups most opposed to the ongoing socialist takeover was cold-blooded and deliberate political terrorism intended from day one. Only a handful of the beltway politicos’ hands are even a little clean in this matter. None of the Democrats are clean. Trumps’ and the Republican’s hands aren’t really clean at all, either. I think that most of the Republican elites are stricken with the delusion that the Exchange policies are some sort of single-payer system, when nothing can be further from the truth of the matter. The elites also believe that there are real alternatives, which there aren’t, other than risk a medical debt bankruptcy. Apparently the actor’s union got an exemption for their insurance carrier, so don’t expect the talking heads to ever acknowledge any of this on camera.
    Also note that it is possible to file amended returns to recover Premium Tax Credit refunds from previous years, although that option expires for the 2015 season on April 15, under the three year rule.
    If you questions about this, ask your tax preparer, or find a better a better preparer. I am not a tax preparer, and you now know everything I know. Just remember, the Premium Tax Credit is not welfare, it is restitution.

    • “health insurance deadbeats getting a free ride.”

      INT…. thats the illusion that is passed around.. NO ONE GETS A FREE RIDE….

      We pay out over fifty percent of our gross income on health insurance alone.. the person that doesn’t have insurance is taken to the cleaners..

      I worked govt. job as one of my hats years ago during Srs. administration.. after Healthcare insurance my monthly take home was 307.00.. my car insurance was 350.00.. not counting my home mortgage utilities the cost of operating a home food etc.. so in order for me to survive and make a meager living.. I had to work two full time jobs and one part time job stocking shelves to survive..
      Thursday was the tough day.. during that day I didn’t get to sleep at all.. so from nap time Thursday till the next shift it ended up to be 36 hours straight..Saturdays at the govt. job was slow and I would take a short nap during lunch.. My boss who was my best friend also..( never work with your best friend as your boss ever.. never hire a friend.. been there done that to.. then had to fire them) well the one saturday shift my boss wanted to take what they called a plus day.. He could take one I couldn’t.. and I was tired.. for some reason that now escapes me I didn’t get that half hour rest before the shifts so I was working on forty eight hours straight..he got upset.. and said he just didn’t know why I was tired on saturdays.. I told him.. well give my butt a raise.. you know I do most of the work here and I have to work the two full and one part time job to survive.. anyway during this discussion the fact that my whole months salary went out for health insurance came up.. so he suggested I look around for a private insurance company.. I did picked the one just before thanks giving.. we got paid once a month on the 24th. did the physical did the tests paid for the doctors exam etc..all of which came back good except I had hypertension and had to take medications for it.. the 20th. of december came I called the insurance man he said.. he hadn’t heard back from the underwriters but had to call them anyway and would call me back in the next day to let me know.. the 21 came he calls said well talked to the underwriters and your ok.. but because christmas and new years is coming up don’t expect to see your paperwork untill about the middle of January.. I canceled my policy with the govt. job.. the middle of january.. they didn’t take out the payment.. I called the insurance man.. oh.. you weigh 203 lbs.. the ideal weight for your height and body build is 164lbs.. they allow thirty pound variable for that and you are above that so you are uninsurable.. Now I can’t get insurance anywhere.. it was horrific.. every month I would check at a different health insurance company.. nope no insurance for you.. smoke.. have a beer once a month.. nope your not getting insurance.. ever had acne.. again. nope no insurance for you any medical issue in your past gave the right to the insurance company discriminate or price gouge you on your coverage..I put that cash aside.. for that once a year or two doctors visit.. almost four years go by and my ex wife now had a galbladder attack and had to have it removed.. we went to the free clinic.. tests were free.. my bishop he had a gall bladder attack.. same doctor.. he had insurance.. we didn’t same doctor the surgery.. same day surgery.. in and out three hours.. the difference in cost.. even though we went through the free clinic and all the tests were free.. the cost of the operation was almost four times what his total cost was with insurance.. the surgeons bill was as much as what the bishops was.. they literally called once an hour.. day and night they made my life hell…
      I felt sorry for myself.. didn’t know what to do.. then one day I see a woman from our community in a wheelchair.. I asked. whats the problem..why are you crying.. well then her story came out.. I was a night housekeeping staff of the major hospital..New years eve I get off around two am.. on my way home and was crashed into by a drunk.. without insurance. they flight for lifed me to the hospital did the surgeries etc.. and was in intensive care for over a month.. the health insurance policy she had with the hospital .. well that was an accident.. not a health issue.. they refused to pay.. the kid dies.. and no money.. the hospital went in and seized the only money she was getting for surviving from her bank account and left her with 75.00… she couldn’t pay rent or utilities and they would be doing that all the time..
      I have almost a grand deducted from my bank account every month for medications.. not a thing you can do either..
      so.. I no longer felt sorry for myself.. I decided.. I only had the little bit of money I had been putting aside.. maybe I could do like I did years ago.. and trade labor for the expenses.. I went in to the surgeon.. yup he loved the idea.. but he wanted me to resurface his parking lot.. by hand hundred degree heat.. muggy.. ( that is how I made good friends with my wife now.. she had had a minor stroke a few years earlier and they did the same thing to her.. took every dime she had.. she came and helped brought ice cold water and sandwiches and jumped in to help)
      then came the hospital.. boy what do we look like an employment agency .. I heard all the excuses.. go ask for govt. help back to my employer.. nope you make 25.00 to much but if you were from another country we could help you out.. I asked the churches etc.. nope.. every place they wanted me to ask I did.. your stuck.. I went in and begged the chaplain .. they went to the business office. the business office actually told them to shove it where the sun don’t shine and mind their own business..( I had written down the hospital mission statement posted in the front door..) when they called me I apologized for the business office..and read back the mission statement.. and said I was sorry that the business office was so harsh to them.. just a minute.. they called back and I start on wednesday.. worked a year in exchange for that hospital bill.My Hell Year 140 plus hours a week and yes.. all my work aholic ways did eventually take a toll on my body… the scariest two weeks of my life I miss calculated and worked two weeks without any sleep whatsoever no deep rest periods nothing..scared the hell out of me I thought for sure that it was going to kill me.. after day three I was sharp as a tack and I knew it was pure adrenaline.. ( years later a good friend of mine tried doing the same thing.. I warned him don’t do it.. he made it a week.. talked to him before he went to lay down and he died in his sleep..). so for one whole year I worked three full time jobs and one part time job.. Oh why didn’t I go get the insurance back from the govt.. well happens once I dropped it they didn’t have to take me back.. the insurance company they had before went bankrupt on everyone and I had to sell my first home so I could pay a debt for my daughter who had cancer..
      Oh I have been down that road.. and it isn’t pretty… the vast majority sit in the luxury of not having to face those situations.. no one gets by for free.. ever..
      if you are on the good Samaritan programs those people are reminded daily that they are losers to the community.. now they are targeting SS recipients even though if those people had put those funds in separate accounts secure and not let congress have access to them.. would be multi millionaires..
      and yes.. the EIC tax credit is not specifically a welfare.. it was designed after nafta when the Reagan administration realized that the economy was going to tank.. seems if no one has any cash to spend they don’t spend any cash.. before that they had tax rebates.. but you just can’t keep having tax rebates.. but it is a give away program.. designed to give money back to the segment of society that has expenses to spend it on..

      • oh the fifty percent of our income going out for healthcare.. that is only for my wife.. not me.. I am to terrified to see what they want from us for me..

      • Under the current system, if you are paying half your gross income for health insurance, then something is likely wrong with your Federal tax return, and the IRS is not going to flag it to you. Get help from a professional tax preparer. Get them to explain the Premium Tax Credit to you and how it affects your return. You may be able to get a refund for prior years where you overpaid your premiums as well. I lived the horrors of the old system too, but everything changed under Obama. It is possible for you to have a negative tax rate on your federal tax return if you grossly overpaid for insurance during the year and claim the Premium Tax Credit. I’m not talking about welfare, I am talking about restitution for the premiums you overpaid on. Please get competent help with your Federal tax return. God bless you.

  6. The FCC & the Whitehouse are set to announce a big 5G push to keep the US in the 5 G race. 5G speed is needed to power the coming AI, blockchain, & Internet of Things revolution.

  7. Now that Russian collusion has been debunked, investigations are beginning into Ukrainian collusion. Don’t you find it interesting that Julian Assange has suddenly reappeared in the headlines? Nothing says “diversion” more than a radioactive headline like that!

  8. After looking at the photograph of the NASA 1st ever photograph of a Black Hole, I think Glenn Beck may be right that it is actually a picture of a glazed donut, which puts the moon landing in question.

  9. Id like to publicly thank Bob O. For his comments on “Job Cuts Up, So Markets (fill in the blank)” . That thar was some seriously good stuff. I dont how i missed it before. Thank you!

    • R.E.T. George. Rational Emotive Therapy. a system if thought invented in the late 1800’s. For the data driven mind. :)

    • You are welcome, Andy S.!! One day I get a wild hair I may just drive from Texas to PNW and look you up across a Texas Hold ’em table. Diggin’ into your brain cavity would be a treat for me.

      If you’re playin’ on 8/19/19 and you see a dude looks like Kenny Rogers… might be me.

      • Ha ha ha ha! That’s is a damn good day! Dats my birthday!

        I gave up gamblin the other day. Much obliged, though.

        Might be interested in doing a little fly fishin though or huntin some 2 legged deer.

        You know the story about the Old Bull, the Young Bull and the Wise Bull. right?

        Young bull says to the other two bulls, we should run down there and screw one of them cows.

        The old bull says why dont we walk down there and screw them all.

        After a ling pause, the Old Bull and The young bull look over to the wise bull.

        The wise bull says, way i see it is. I am just pretend im cow and mosey on down there and screw them all twice.

        :)

        Off to grab 18 gears, have a good day!

  10. Fyi: IMF gave Ecuador a 4.5 billion dollar loan a month before Assange got arrested.

    A reminder,

    “There is no such thing as Coincidence. ” N.S.A. handbook.

  11. “That will be a year ahead of the November 3, 2020 presidential election where in the world of historical rhymes, we will get a democrat/socialist president who …”

    So, what are you going to do when Trump wins in 2020????

  12. Interesting George reading all the replies, for it seems they are all carrying their own demons on their back’s,remind’s me of a lyric from a song from the 60’s ‘How many times can a man turn his head and pretend he doesn’t see” and of course this is what the people are doing today,simply to easy to blame someone else.!!!

  13. Health Sharing plans are the answer to insurance plans. Samaritan Ministries, Liberty Health Share and one more, “Medishare. They can cover up to 100 percent of hospital and doctor bills. Everyone can be eligible and find a program that fits their budget and family. No need to face unexpected health issues alone. Quit the insurance racket! When will ONE person on this comment section check it out? We have been covered 100 percent on TWO separate occasions totaling over $95,000 in assistance, reducing initial bills from $500,000 to $95,000. No hardships. No bankruptcy.

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