Reader Note: The UrbanSurvival HQ is still down two DSL lines. We have rudimentary, incomplete CenturyLink access. The lines won’t even complete the company’s own DSL Test online. So, again, we are posting in pieces today. The Good News? (Such as it is…) is that we have some very good techs on the case and so far they have found one bad T-1, but they STILL can’t upload anything other than an occasional mouse-click, so our adventures in the data-darkness continue today. No Nostracodeus server running.,.. I’m working on a prepping article to explain how to pre-plan and cope with Internet Anguish in the Outback. The DSLs have been down since Saturday, ticketed since Sunday… While the local techs are excellent, (three of ’em so far…we expect #4 will appear today) the issues are upstream and to do things like resetting a “DSL shelf” for maybe 600 customers is not something the field techs get to do (though that might solve things…) That goes up to the Central Office group and there’s a political dance to all that. Favors are issued and cashed along the way. We sincerely appreciate the efforts and good cheer of all, but we’d trade that for a grouch with a quicker time-to-restored….Oh well. (Insert the Serenity Prayer) Meantime, the lesson in resiliency? With the ham radio, we can send slow-scan TV images to Europe, Morse code to anywhere you can name, and single side-band, as well. Ure’s first point to ponder? If you’re only thinking of prepping as food and shelter independence, please consider what your options are for communications independence, as well. There’s a screwy world to be kept-an-eye-on…and we’d like to be back with our full armory of data devices divining divisive distractions daily… Or, as they say in Area Code 809…“Soon come, mon, soon come…”
Our Peoplenomics.com readers (subscription link above, $40 a year, and worth every penny we’re told) have a great advantage over most in that they have charts showing the Big Picture views of things.
But there was one item in the Wednesday report that’s meaningful and it’s a weird concept I hadn’t bothered to “stick a label on” until this morning.
As you know, we have been tracking the “1929 Replay Scenario” since 1999. I got seriously into studies of the Kondratieff Wave while finishing up my Masters in Business in May of 1998. With the pendency of Y2K, I was ready for collapse to begin shortly after 2000 because, well, we were due.
Now, the key thing you have to understand about markets is that they will cheat, steal, and lie in order to take the most money from the most people to enrich the one percenters. This is why, for example, in the aftermath of the Internet bubble collapse (2001-2004) stock touts involved the Dow and the S&P. that’s because somewhere between $5 and $8-trillion of American;s hard-invested money simply collapsed.
That was just plain, wrong, and crooked – and since I could see it coming, I evolved the Aggregate Index approach, so people could see the overall – real market as a whole – and not be misled by the shills and touts.
Then I lined up things in 2000 as the nominal high. When plotted again Dow Jones Industrials for the post collapse period in 1929-35, we saw an eerie correlation. It’s charts like this, current through Wednesday of this week:
Let me see if I can explain things gently for you.
See how we had a nice, long-term peak in 2000?, then a decline to 2003…then along came Sir Alan Bubblemeister to keep things going with the 2003-2008 no-doc loan scam and all that easy money designed to buoy the economy. So far, it was a very good replay of 1929-193X.
On the Surface, it looks like the Housing Crisis is long-past. But, is it? And if it’s not, would either of the turdly political parties cop to it? No. But you need to know where to look.
What is totally missed in the LameStream Media is that the absolute number of American’s working as a fraction of population.
As you can see in this data set, the larger portion of Americans working peaked in the 1999 period – about the time I wrote “Death by DotCom.”
Like it, or not, the data even now supports a “thinking model” which I called “Managing the Global Wiemar.” After the deadly German reparations that saw people with a wheelbarrow full of paper assets being exchanged for a loaf of bread, or two. Prices changed hourly.
Managing the Illusion is important. While it’s true that real per capita personal income has risen nicely, it’s also true that prices have kept pace. Which means the harder we work – as a nation – we’re still not moving quickly ahead.
My consigliere and I have debated for years whether the US would work itself out of the Second Depression through inflation or deflation. Since we know that the 1930’s workout was deflationary, it’s clear that at a high-level policy standpoint, a decision was made by the PowersThatBe back in 2008-2009 that the only “way out” would be a long-term, structural inflation in order to bury the sins of the past.
Unfortunately, the Truth leaks out. You can see it in the US
Treasury Public Debt to the Penny.
About here, a reasonable person would ask “So, how does this work?”
Just getting to that. Look at the growth of the Federal Debt. It’s like getting addicted to crack. Once you begin, crack, smack, or deficit, the only solutions are death or rehab. There’s no middle ground:
So that’s our morning “deep think.” Are we in the midst of a Managed Wiemar kind of inflation? The stock market and real estate prices would certainly suggest it…at least since the bottom in 2009.
All that remains to be answered is how it all works out over time and can a collapse be avoided?
Already, we can see “technology” coming along to reprice a lot of tangible to much higher – inflated – prices.
Take cars, for example. We can see that as self-driving cars come along, they may be taken out of the realm of individually owned and turned into time-shares or group leases. Critically, companies like Uber and Lyft are on the cutting-edge of those models. And when Uber and Lyft begin buying fleets of automatic drivers, then it’s only a few ticks on the historical clock until human-driven cars are legislated off the public highways.
It’s a decade off, and we may not live to see it, but already the restraints on “free travel” are being clamped on – in case you haven’t tried to take an airplane trip, lately. Or, gone through the nearly :”papers please” at immigration checkpoints on USA Interstates…or been targeted as an out-of-state driver by police with automatic license plate scanners.
You see, times are changing. And the hell of it is, we have gotten totally wrapped around the axle of worthless distractions like Trump/Mueller and such.
The historical deal points never come up for a vote. There was never a vote on Social Media, for example. Yet there it is, trying to rock the roller coaster cars off the track.
All the while, a stealth inflation is driving up stocks and real estate – and surely more will follow. Until we wake up one morning and the market’s down 4,000 points and there’s a Constitutional Crisis and America has it’s first coup.
Not that it’s not already underway. The Stealth Inflation Bubble hints that it has its roots in the dynamic market lows of 2009.
So we buckle-up and enjoy the ride.
When I Tell You the Future
Go back and read what I told you about Florence and the Nukes.
Notice the date of posting: September 11.
Turns out, the Brunswick plant did get shut down because of the storm and there was an unusual event notice from the Nuclear Regulatory Commission (Region II) because workers couldn’t get to the plant because of flooding.
The bottom line for us? Another example of how when reading the news it’s not just reading with an “OMG did you see that???” It’s learning to read the news and projecting future moves that will likely come as a result.
(Thanks to reader LB in Houston for the reminders!)
Dang! No UFO’s
Against thre backdrop of our Steal Inflation concerns:
Futures are +132…as the pop-off continues.
And the Philly Fed outlook was constructive:
Ya’ll come back tomorrow for another round of Internet Connectivity Roulette!
Tell your friends and bring ’em along, too. Moron the ‘morrow!