Options Observations: Synthetic Inflation

Reader Note:  The UrbanSurvival HQ is still down two DSL lines.  We have rudimentary, incomplete CenturyLink access.  The lines won’t even complete the company’s own DSL Test online.  So, again, we are posting in pieces today.  The Good News? (Such as it is…) is that we have some very good techs on the case and so far they have found one bad T-1, but they STILL can’t upload anything other than an occasional mouse-click, so our adventures in the data-darkness continue today. No Nostracodeus server running.,..  I’m working on a prepping article to explain how to pre-plan and cope with Internet Anguish in the Outback.  The DSLs have been down since Saturday, ticketed since Sunday…  While the local techs are excellent, (three of ’em so far…we expect #4 will appear today) the issues are upstream and to do things like resetting a “DSL shelf” for maybe 600 customers is not something the field techs get to do (though that might solve things…)  That goes up to the Central Office group and there’s a political dance to all that.  Favors are issued and cashed along the way.  We sincerely appreciate the efforts and good cheer of all, but we’d trade that for a grouch with a quicker time-to-restored….Oh well.  (Insert the Serenity Prayer)  Meantime, the lesson in resiliency?  With the ham radio, we can send slow-scan TV images to Europe, Morse code to anywhere you can name, and single side-band, as well. Ure’s first point to ponder?  If you’re only thinking of prepping as food and shelter independence, please consider what your options are for communications independence, as well.  There’s a screwy world to be kept-an-eye-on…and we’d like to be back with our full armory of data devices divining divisive distractions daily…  Or, as they say in Area Code 809…“Soon come, mon, soon come…”

Synthetic Inflation

Our Peoplenomics.com readers (subscription link above, $40 a year, and worth every penny we’re told) have a great advantage over most in that they have charts showing the Big Picture views of things.

But there was one item in the Wednesday report that’s meaningful and it’s a weird concept I hadn’t bothered to “stick a label on” until this morning.

As you know, we have been tracking the “1929 Replay Scenario” since 1999.  I got seriously into studies of the Kondratieff Wave while finishing up my Masters in Business in May of 1998.  With the pendency of Y2K, I was ready for collapse to begin shortly after 2000 because, well, we were due.

Now, the key thing you have to understand about markets is that they will cheat, steal, and lie in order to take the most money from the most people to enrich the one percenters.  This is why, for example, in the aftermath of the Internet bubble collapse (2001-2004) stock touts involved the Dow and the S&P.  that’s because somewhere between $5 and $8-trillion of American;s hard-invested money simply collapsed.

That was just plain, wrong, and crooked – and since I could see it coming, I evolved the Aggregate Index approach, so people could see the overall – real market as a whole  – and not be misled by the shills and touts.

Then I lined up things in 2000 as the nominal high.  When plotted again Dow Jones Industrials for the post collapse period in 1929-35, we saw an eerie correlation.  It’s charts like this, current through Wednesday of this week:

Let me see if I can explain things gently for you.

See how we had a nice, long-term peak in 2000?, then a decline to 2003…then along came Sir Alan Bubblemeister to keep things going with the 2003-2008 no-doc loan scam and all that easy money designed to buoy the economy.  So far, it was a very good replay of 1929-193X.

On the Surface, it looks like the Housing Crisis is long-past.  But, is it?  And if it’s not, would either of the turdly political parties cop to it?  No.  But you need to know where to look.

What is totally missed in the LameStream Media is that the absolute number of American’s working as a fraction of population.

As you can see in this data set, the larger portion of Americans working peaked in the 1999 period – about the time I wrote “Death by DotCom.”

Like it, or not, the data even now supports a “thinking model” which I called “Managing the Global Wiemar.”  After the deadly German reparations that saw people with a wheelbarrow full of paper assets being exchanged for a loaf of bread, or two.  Prices changed hourly.


Managing the Illusion is important.  While it’s true that real per capita personal income has risen nicely, it’s also true that prices have kept pace.  Which means the harder we work – as a nation – we’re still not moving quickly ahead.

My consigliere and I have debated for years whether the US would work itself out of the Second Depression through inflation or deflation.  Since we know that the 1930’s workout was deflationary, it’s clear that at a high-level policy standpoint, a decision was made by the PowersThatBe back in 2008-2009 that the only “way out” would be a long-term, structural inflation in order to bury the sins of the past.

Unfortunately, the Truth leaks out.  You can see it in the US
Treasury Public Debt to the Penny.

About here, a reasonable person would ask “So, how does this work?”

Just getting to that.  Look at the growth of the Federal Debt.  It’s like getting addicted to crack.  Once you begin, crack, smack, or deficit, the only solutions are death or rehab.  There’s no middle ground:

So that’s our morning “deep think.”  Are we in the midst of a Managed Wiemar kind of inflation?  The stock market and real estate prices would certainly suggest it…at least since the bottom in 2009.

All that remains to be answered is how it all works out over time and can a collapse be avoided?

Already, we can see “technology” coming along to reprice a lot of tangible to much higher – inflated – prices.

Take cars, for example.  We can see that as self-driving cars come along, they may be taken out of the realm of individually owned and turned into time-shares or group leases.  Critically, companies like Uber and Lyft are on the cutting-edge of those models.  And when Uber and Lyft begin buying fleets of automatic drivers, then it’s only a few ticks on the historical clock until human-driven cars are legislated off the public highways.

It’s a decade off, and we may not live to see it, but already the restraints on “free travel” are being clamped on – in case you haven’t tried to take an airplane trip, lately.  Or, gone through the nearly :”papers please” at immigration checkpoints on USA Interstates…or been targeted as an out-of-state driver by police with automatic license plate scanners.

You see, times are changing.  And the hell of it is, we have gotten totally wrapped around the axle of worthless distractions like Trump/Mueller and such.

The historical deal points never come up for a vote.  There was never a vote on Social Media, for example.  Yet there it is, trying to rock the roller coaster cars off the track.

All the while, a stealth inflation is driving up stocks and real estate – and surely more will follow.  Until we wake up one morning and the market’s down 4,000 points and there’s a Constitutional Crisis and America has it’s first coup.

Not that it’s not already underway.  The Stealth Inflation Bubble hints that it has its roots in the dynamic market lows of 2009.

So we buckle-up and enjoy the ride.

When I Tell You the Future

Go back and read what I told you about Florence and the Nukes.

Notice the date of posting:  September 11.

Turns out, the Brunswick plant did get shut down because of the storm and there was an unusual event notice from the Nuclear Regulatory Commission (Region II) because workers couldn’t get to the plant because of flooding.

The bottom line for us?  Another example of how when reading the news it’s not just reading with an “OMG did you see that???”  It’s learning to read the news and projecting future moves that will likely come as a result.

(Thanks to reader LB in Houston for the reminders!)

Dang!  No UFO’s

Space Observatory Suddenly Closed Because of Child Porn Investigation, Not Aliens, Authorities Say.  

Blow-Off, Anyone?

Against thre backdrop of our Steal Inflation concerns:

Futures are +132…as the pop-off continues.

And the Philly Fed outlook was constructive:

Ya’ll come back tomorrow for another round of Internet Connectivity Roulette!

Tell your friends and bring ’em along, too.  Moron the ‘morrow!

34 thoughts on “Options Observations: Synthetic Inflation”

  1. I gotta roll, hauling Rock. Been a slow construction season for most, not where i work. We are super busy. Not as busy as last year, thats for sure. We have tons of wa.gov contracts. So we are staying super busy.

    The momentum of things seems to have slowed and people are sleepy again… that is usually when disaster strikes. Not talking about anyone on ure site, just my general read of things.

    12/19 we look forward to a “hell raiser” event. That is the date given to me. As the little wheel within the wheels that turn the grand weel in the myan long count makes its completed circle. “Click click boom”. Keeps coming on the radio and that song “Faith” by George Michaels. I never noticed in the original music video as he turns around it says “revenge” on the back of his leather jacket and USA on the front.

    I will think, on things, many things, but see if i can give ya a local and size of that quake, next week.

    I was re-reading the emerald tablet of thoth the other day and ehat stuck out to me that line, “Come now, give thyself to the flower of light”.

    “Mother”, “baby”, “conception”, “flower of light” “twins”, “life within “life”. All thesr terms are coming through in abundance lately. Especially on my read off the twin turbo Lamborghini. We had a good talk last night. She is super powerful and super super intuitive. Havent met one like her, ever… very gifted empath as well.

    So, once again, we may begin to see another round/ series of contractions in ‘reality’. If you think of reality in the big picture as God. Like it or not, giving birth to God’s self in an aeon. We see these contractions effecting everything from the markets to terra movment. Last time we had a series of contractions we had huge series of quakes, massive decline in the market and alot of beating on the war drum. Its all connected because it is all with realitys relm.

    And so it begins…as soon as next week. I think.

    Dont mean to scare the be-jesus out of ya. Just my read of things.. and i may be wrong.

    I could be off by as much as 2 weeks. I have been late before. Im late now. Got to get.

    Off to grab 18 gears.
    Andy

    • Oh i forget who once said it, “Momma is the first name for God for every baby.” Late is another pregnancy term. So many its rediculous! Im fixed. So it aint my baby. Lol

      I dont do GLP or any forums anymore. Trinity sold out just like Colin Kaepernick.

      Greed wins. You know how they catch monkeys in Africa? (Not a racial statment, i am no shape or form a racist, but it is relevant) they place a piece of candy in a jar. When the monkey reaches in to grab the candy it makes a fist and cant get its hand out to get free again because it wont let go of the piece of candy. Then they just walk up and bonk them on the head. Nike and membership fee’s. Candy.

      Everything is a business model. Even the future. If it wasnt, there would be no such thing as interest rates.

      • “Acting deals with very delicate emotions. It is not putting up a mask. Each time an actor acts he does not hide; he exposes himself.”

        Rodney Dangerfield

        LOL

      • It’s not too late to make some money and a $1 will make U 310 will make you 3000 100 will make you 30 thousand thousand will make you 300,000 buy some digibyte it’s going for less than $0.03 and in January it’ll be worth $9 this is your chance go for it. I’m personally got between five to six thousand in it and that’ll equal a little over a million dollars we’ll see in January of 2019 I really don’t need the money but it’s fun

      • Er…Birmingham Small Arms (as in m/c clubs would know) or Boy Scouts of America? Or, whatever they are now…

      • Excuse-moi Si Vous Play on the charts next to the 90-day hit the max which stands for maximum then you’ll see the future

    • Andy
      Micheal’s Jacket says “BSA” on the front not USA.
      “BSA” is a grand old name of English Motorcycles, known for torquey 500 CC single cylinder bikes that ruled hill climbing contests when I watched “Wide World of Sports” as a kid. They and Triumph were the Harley’s of the Continent and the British Isles. If I am not mistaken, Peter Fonda’s chopper may have been a Triumph, there were a lot of them used back then and they all had oil leaks that would compete with any Harley.

    • Its all this rain.I didn’t get anything at all done this summer…if it had been twenty degrees cooler we’d have gotten eight feet of snow in the past two days..since its getting close to those days I’m getting yancy to get a new snow blower..

  2. George, here we are in 2018/2019 and country folk (farmers/farm familys) still don’t have access to modern technology.My grandfathers youngest brother worked in a Govt job stringing wires,digging post holes for the Rural Electrification Project way back when. Strikes me as still a good idea for urban youth and rural youths, to get some work experience, on job training and a Paycheck..the Rural/Urban Internetification Project. Fiber for All!
    S&P Large Cap Index vs. AMZN – comparison needs to be with S&P Large Cap Index.One more tool for the stock market investing tool box. As my “sainted” grandmother used to say, “Danny my boy, its a poor rat that only has one hole to call home”.

  3. Sir: been a science fiction (speculative fiction?) reader for over 50 years. this collection of technology and social repercussions is not new to us. it is somewhat disturbing to see in actual life. John Brunner (the sheep look up) is avery close description of the united states of today. My greatest fear (because i grok)is that Nehemiah Scudder is very close. I thank goodness that i am in the closing stages of life, and pray that my daughter will finish veterinary school before shtf. when it happens she will be prepared to survive and prosper!!!

    • Dave I am not sure when SHTF we’ve never seen anything like it. The older generation is pretty much gone that experienced the last one and our weapons are ten million percent more powerful.with The monkeys are rattling the cage wanting more..
      With all the global tension created by the puppeteers if someone jumps..it could be life changing and all of us thrust back ten thousand years. That scares me..we read a book and think oh we can survive hell..we’ve never had a war in recent years on our continent the puppeteers have never had what they thrust on everyone else affect them personally..I think This time around..it all Will be life altering

      • Sir: we must assume that some will survive, however bad the circumstances may become. so we spread knowledge as far and wide as we can. otherwise, there is no point to continuuing, and avoidance of future awareness and personal consequences will bring the shtf sooner, harder, and with fewer survivors. maybe you can reccomend a good surgeon for pre-frontal lobotomies?

      • I think the country song went “I’d rather have a bottle in front ‘uh me than a frontal lobotomy…”

      • Dave.. you are correct in assuming some will probably survive.in reality it is a total crap shoot…the last time I read an assessment it was 10% for us about 30 million.

        https://docs.house.gov/meetings/HM/HM09/20171012/106467/HHRG-115-HM09-Wstate-PryP-20171012.pdf

        https://www.heritage.org/defense/report/emp-attacks-what-the-us-must-do-now
        that is with an emp.. if you consider a full flash bang you would have the same estimated survival with long term illnesses without modern medical..

        https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/books/NBK219185/

        this is a good book about medicine…

        https://www.nap.edu/catalog/940/the-medical-implications-of-nuclear-war

        My point was.. we are all in a position that we take for granted everything..even though our minds tell us the reality we still assume that modern conveniences will be available.. like.. I can cut down twenty trees a day with my chainsaw.. ok.. take the chainsaw away..
        for most of my life I had a view of what I thought was important.. the minute that changed my whole perspective changed in an instant on what was truly important..
        in the USA and most of the modern world we have water sewer etc.. we have never had to walk fifty miles for a drink of water… or been stuck in the mountain pass without any way to move because of foul weather..even those having been through war.. war hasn’t touched their lives here we live in a state of disbelief.

        http://bees.caes.uga.edu/bees-beekeeping-pollination/other-topics/on-einstein–bees–and-survival-of-the-human-race.html

        https://e360.yale.edu/features/declining_bee_populations_pose_a_threat_to_global_agriculture

        as a rule even if we were to teach our youth the modern methods of how to do things in the event of a true SHTF scenario most of what we had taught would be worthless.. sort of like a slide rule.. I still have mine someplace.. but most kids wouldn’t know how to use it..without a computer they are lost.. most books today are being replaced by digital books..
        having outsourced our industrial complex in the search for vast profits really put us behind.. the old blacksmiths of the old days are few and far between.. libraries.. how many would know where to search for books. or resources how to make.. at first my thought is we would have plenty of resources.. since we have crap.. lots of crap and available resources would be abundant.. then as mankind slowly vanished those that know how would be dying off.. a mechanic is a great mechanic.. but he can’t fabricate.. etc.. we all need each other..and most people that prep are prepping for themselves not their neighbors..and many don’t even know their neighbors..
        https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qhU5JEd-XRo

        https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wr-kn0JG5p4

      • You should check with congress. I am not sure but think they must have a good surgeon on standby for new candidates being voted in. Lol lol

        In my opinion all plans for pre operations should be made for the whole not the singular.. I’ve probably read a book or two more than the average. And I’ve worn many hats..book reading never adds up to that of an experienced person that works it every day. That’s where my assessment was its easy to read the book..not as easy to live it.
        Like the super bowl I have all these thought on how the game should have been played the big difference is I wasn’t playing the game.

  4. “Are we in the midst of a Managed Wiemar kind of inflation? The stock market and real estate prices would certainly suggest it…at least since the bottom in 2009.”

    thats all water on the table as they push the noodle along.. they have two choices..
    1.dry it up a little at a time..and hope and pray that the noodle doesn’t crumble and smear all over the table..
    2. Keep dumping the water on until the noodle falls apart because it was soaked to long and everything gets extremely expensive.. such as argentina and Zimbabwe where a loaf of bread is ten million dollars and the makings for sandwiches is a months wages.
    the down side to this also is that we have one in three of the population that is getting federal assistance in one way or another.. so the budget has to inflate.. the taxes have to increase( who pays for it the laborers)
    what surprises me more is that the One percent will end up with a sheet of numbers that don’t mean squat.. that is why I think we have wars the numbers and pieces of paper mean absolutely nothing.. but control over the things needed to survive are priceless..so we go to war the people pay for it we destroy cities and lifestyles so that a gold toothed monkey with a noose around its net wearing plaid bell bottom suit pants and a polyester shirt can get control of vital resources..
    what could throw a wrench into the whole plan is.. IF.. another country was to get their paper currency placed as the currency to back up the EU… I actually thought that happened or was happening a few years ago when a couple of container ships were turned around because the requirement was that the shipment be paid in gold.. ( I would have given a worthless dollar to be a mouse in the corner that day)
    It is in the puppeteers interests to keep the dollar alive and valued.. but for some reason which I don’t understand they are not trying to do that.. and with the president attempting to keep our economy alive everyone is doing the very best to undermine any attempts at strengthening the economy and the work force.. so someplace I don’t know there has to be a double deal going down.. where who knows.. but either way with the way the noodle is going to crumble.. numbers on a sheet of paper .. well they are nice to look at.. and like bit coin.. as long as people value it it will be good towards goods and services.
    Now if the SHTF happens.. just like the German depression.. it would take a bushel basket of gold and silver to get a bushel basket of food..
    just like the old saying hes worth his salt.. comes from when roman soldiers were paid in salt because of how valuable it was.. the same goes the the saying his weight in gold.. you cannot eat gold and silver..and paper well it might just as well be made like the old sears catalogues. but then all of this is just my opinion..
    just sitting here watching the noodle move..

  5. These autonomous vehicles can easily place a limit on your travels. The “social score” system in China already limits where you can go if your score is too low (hey, I made it rhyme!).
    Anyway, I have no plans to ever use one of these death traps. I’ll do the driving, thank you very much.

  6. George,
    About Brunswick NPP. They sleep engineers on site under their desks if they have to, so the place is never unmanned. It WAS shut down well in advance of the storm, but remember that would’ve been a HOT shutdown. The difficulty with the situation is they only have a certain number of days diesel on site to run the diesel generators. This plant was built like Fukushima, and attempts have been made in recent years to retrofit but I’m not holding my breath. I know for 100% sure that Brunswick County is still mostly cut off from the rest of the world. They have had to fly in food, water, and gas. As of just a couple of days ago, in the middle of the END portion of the storm, reports from Brunswick County were that emergency services were going to have to CHOOSE which 911 calls they could attempt to respond to. The set-aside gas reserves for emergency services for the county we’re almost nearly used up. Even though Supplies have been flown into the area, the roads situation is so unstable that sinkholes have opened EVERYWHERE in & along roads. A significant number of BRIDGES are washed out. The Brunswick NPP is in Southport North Carolina, and in Southport they were asking those evacuated to stay away for now. Brunswick County is adjacent to Wilmington North Carolina which was the bullseye. The significant issue remains flooding, river rise, and the seriously washed out roads. I feel certain that if they are able to fly supplies to the local county airport that they have probably been able to fly in an extra supply of diesel to the nuclear plant. For the most part, utility services are just in the initial stages of being restored anywhere in the area so it will REQUIRE Diesel. I have been staying on top of all kinds of County, state, & local reports. I have not been able to return to my area, as the Coast Guard has not yet re-opened the river/waterway channel. Marinas remain closed. Access to Eastern North Carolina in general has been hampered by the continuing river rise, especially in the Lumberton North Carolina area. As of just yesterday, individuals were still being evacuated from low-lying floodplain areas inland. The governor has asked individuals to not drive through the state of North Carolina, but is rerouting all traffic around North Carolina to the west and through Georgia in order to go south. One town over from Southport North Carolina is a town called Boiling Springs Lakes. The lakes now look like a Grand Canyon, as a damn was breached and all the water ran out into the Cape Fear River. Information about the actual ongoing status of the nuclear plant is I’m sure being monitored by officials, but being held close to the vest. That’s the report from East Coast, USA – & just about PART of my problems

  7. Sunspot Solar Observatory blurb is BS. The FBI runs nearly 300 KP investigations per year, every year, within a hundred mile radius of ABQ. Unless the janitor were a member or close associate of a known terror cell, his investigation for KP trafficking would not be cause for a shutdown/evac…

  8. “Once you begin, crack, smack, or deficit, the only solutions are death or rehab. There’s no middle ground:’

    There’s plenty of “middle ground” but we’re already too spoiled in our “democracy.” You have to do what’s RIGHT, and you cannot put it up for a vote by “the common public.”

    Example: Fix our money system right now!!

    • See commentary in NY Post today supporting Kavanaugh and saying the lefties have onlyu won issues in court, not with we the peeps – Kavanaugh would neuter ’em – bjut of course by their own literature that’s a fine thing. Where’s m’ crack pipe?

    • Have you looked into line-of-sight wireless internet at your location? There are microwave internet isp’s springing up all over rural Texas. The service I get from Rise Broadband is good enough to stream Sling TV most of the time. Service availability has been improving.

  9. “Or, gone through the nearly :”papers please” at immigration checkpoints on USA Interstates…or been targeted as an out-of-state driver by police with automatic license plate scanners.”

    I had that experience 6 years ago driving through Nebraska (Omaha to be exact) on my way to visit my siblings in my northern IL hometown for Thanksgiving. I had an old van with Oregon license plates. It was about 9pm. Was pulled over on the freeway. I handed the officer my DL and insurance when he came to the passenger window. He asked me where I was going. He seemed to think I was going to NYC and tried several times to trip me up. I never asked him why I was pulled over. He wanted to know why I was going to see my brother and sister and said, so theyre in NYC? I said no, *********, Il. He went back to his vehicle, came back a little while later. I thought for sure he was going to hand me a ticket for some trumped up claim…but he once again tried to trip me up about going to New York, but I said no, IL… He handed me my “papers” and no ticket and said to be careful merging back onto the fwy. He seemed disappointed.

    After he left the side of my vehicle, I thought “what was that all about”. I thought maybe I matched some vehicle they were looking for. It was a very intimidating event. I was grateful he didn’t write me a ticket as I was going the speed limit.

    Later, after I got back to Oregon, I told a friend, with ties to the legal field, what happened. He said I’d been profiled as a possible drug mule since I was in a van, with west coast license plates, and driving after 8pm.

    I usually drive till about 10pm, then get a motel. Apparently that triggers what they niw call a safety check.

    Ive observed several high profile drug bust printed in the paper in the past two years, in the same area I was pulled over in Nebraska. The people were driving vehicles that could haul stuff, like a van, truck or a u-haul. The article claimed they were “following to close” and thats what caused them to be pulled over…then they discovered drugs.

    I wonder how many out of state drivers in vans and trucks they had to pull over to catch those few people with drugs.

    I’d been profiled and it wasn’t fun. That was 6 years ago. Now that Oregon, Washington, and California have legal marijuana and still have a huge interstate black market (its been written up in the paper a lot lately), I shudder to think how many times I’ll be pulled over this time when I make my anticipated trip this holiday season, driving through Idaho, Wyoming, Nebraska, Iowa, and Illinois.

    Its no fun being profiled … Who in their right mind would say seeing those flashing red lights behind you isnt an intimidating experience?

    Im glad the police are out there, but its no fun being pulled over for travelling in a supposedly free country, because you fit a profile.

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