Stocks Predicting the Future – Again?

Reader Note (CenturyLink adventures, redux):  Here we are – again – SIX DAYS IN – without our full complement of Internet tools including the Nostracodeus server being down.  That’s the one dedicated to running Grady’s “news site-sniffing, word frequency shift-analyzing” code that guides some of our “futuring discussions.”  Out Saturday, Ticketed Sunday, techs locally on it since Tuesday, the local lead finally convinced someone up CenturyLink’s food-chain to open an internal ticket.  But, we’re not holding our breath, just yet.  We jovially labeled them CenturyLate.  Today, scratch the jovial ‘tude.  Ure’s gettting pissed.

While we’re still not able to run even “the company” speed test, we have to look at the recent end of “net neutrality” hatchet (one of the fewe things Obama got right) and wonder if perhaps there could be a “war of the telecoms” in the works over “new home-automationists”  (Amazon (Alexa) and Google (assistant).

Our calls to CenturyLink’s media/PR folks haven’t been returned yet.  Since we’re a piss-ant operation, not holding our breath on that side, either.  But, we’d love to be surprised by what’s become endangered “Excellence” that Peters and Waterman wrote of so eloquently…

We hold to the quaint/childish view that “In Search of Excellence: Lessons from America’s Best-Run Companies” should be required living of everyone in the American workforce, not just upper division business geeks like….oh, that feller in the mirror.,…

Are Stocks Telling the Future?

The strange – synchronistic – way my life has worked – when something goes bad, there’s usually a reason for it.  At some Grand Master Design level, unseen by mortals….

Take my present issue with CenturyLink, for example.  Beyond the personal inconvenience of getting up extra-early (so we have time to make something work) I got to wondering Thursday if there was something I was missing.

Sure enough, there was.

I got to looking at CenturyLink’s (NYSE: CTL) stock price and, sure-enough, it’s in decline.  While the rest of the market is soaring loftily to new all-time highs.

The problem – and this picks up on what I was writing about yesterday about a huge, steal inflation going on – that other telecoms were experiencing the same sector rotation.

If you look at Frontier Communications (NASDAQ: FTR) you’ll see that the company has gone from a “last bubble (housing) high” of over $200 per share down to $6.60 Thursday.

What’s going on?

Again, in keeping with the slow-speed hyperinflation theory, it may go something like this:

  • When interest rates are coming down, companies (like telecoms) are a great sector (all else being equal) because even “po folk” will keep their internet and their cell phones going.  No phone means no hook-ups, right?
  • When interest rates begin to go up, however, telecoms don’t have any easy-way to jack-up their revenue-streams to remain competitive with other outfits that can  raise prices “on-demand.”  Instead, they have to go through onerous rate-adjustment hearings with various government agenci8es….and that can be painful.
  • As a result, we figure the market is telling us (when we look at Elliott wave counts and price-trend channels) that telecoms may have more downside ahead.
  • This also (if you listen to the wind, just so) may be telling us the Federal Reserve really could raise rates at their next meeting.- and that begins next Tuesday with a rate announcement Wednesday.

Normally, we eye such meetings with the “buy the rumor, sell the news” glasses on.  We’ll have more on this for our subscribers tomorrow, but for now, the main idea is we wouldn’t be surprised by a modest pullback after the Fed raises (if they do, that is) next week.

One other “co-incident indicator” to be looking at: The 10-year Treasury Note: When you look at the chart on Yahoo Finance (here) you can make out a case for a quarter point increase….That could raise the 10-year to up around 3.15 to 3.25% while – at the same time – putting the ol’ foot in the butt of telecoms.

Related from ReutersFed’s Powell between a rock and hard place: Ignore the yield curve or tight job market?.”  Around the corner and up your rates…

Personal Woo-Woo

In addition to my Internet failing (ViaSat backup works, but only between heavy rain showers and we have 3-1/2 inches due in the coming week) another odd bit of personal woo-woo popped in Thursday.

As you may know (don’t know if I mentioned it) but I stopped taking the generic of Singulair for my asthma about a month ago.  I’d just gotten the scrip refilled and decided that I would experiment for a month and see if my “dry eye” problems improved.  (They did.)

Thursday the phone rings and it’s Walgreens advising me of a recall of 10 MG monteleukast (the generic for Singular).  Which sent me scampering for the recall note from the Fooled and Drugged people…

“The U.S. Food and Drug Administration is warning consumers and health care professionals about a voluntary recall of one lot of Montelukast Sodium Tablets – lot number MON17384, expiration 12/31/2019 – by Camber Pharmaceuticals, Inc., Piscataway, N.J. Sealed bottles labeled as montelukast sodium tablets, 10 milligram, 30-count bottle from Camber were found to instead contain 90 tablets of Losartan Potassium Tablets, 50 mg.

This tablet mix-up may pose a safety risk as taking losartan tablets when not prescribed has the potential to cause renal dysfunction, elevated potassium levels and low blood pressure.”

My, wasn’t that a lucky time to quit my Siungulair clone, huh?

Now I have the question to ask Walgreens:  Do I get my money back?  Around here, when the ham radio and borderland science projects are turned-off, It’s all about the money,right?

“Broken Web” – Wrong?

Next in your reading today, one of the ways for the Internet to implode that I did not include in my 2012 bo9ok (“Broken Web The Coming Collapse of the Internet“) was the notion being floated by former Chief Googster Eric Schmidt that the web will split in two by 2028.  There may be “China web” and “Rest of Web.”

It’s a quaint solution  that – in our view – ignores some of the brutal facts on the economic table.  Like the declining labor participation rate which, in the long-term, will mean fewer workers paying ever-higher taxes.  You see, when rates go up, the US National Debt ($21.2 trillion, plus or minus a small country as of this morning) will have bankrupted America long before then.

Besides, outfits like the Democratic Socialists of America (which we lump under the umbrella shorthand “Webolutionaries” – and that got popped recently by Project Veritas for being part of the Deep State / Shadow Government that’s been blocking Trump everywhere they can… well, social media is the 2019 analog to barricades of the October 1927 Revolution.

If you haven’t seen it (the MainStream Media will lie and coverup this kind of reporting because many are lefties themselves) go see how a GAO Auditor talks about blocking Trump and the elected government of the USA…

Where’s old Joe McCarthy when he’s needed?

The East Coast liberalista press had a fine time running Joe McCarthy out – same as they marginalized the John Birch Society.

Trouble is, while both may have gotten a bit “carried-away” now and then, history says they were right…. Yes, liberalistas did take over the schools and we’ve now neutered a whole generation of kids coming up.

With that?  End of the Warrior Class, so when we need to armor-up for conflict, suddenly gang membership (where testosterone is alive of overdone) becomes a non-issue.  Oh, and the tearing down of America becomes a two-sided again.

Peachy-grand, huh?  Here, have another serving of white-guilt, male-guilt, income-guilt, and whatever-else they’re spewing to gin up a “following.”

Can you imagine what a great country this would be if such people would invent new goods and services instead of going down political and gender divisionism?  OMG, we could have been contenders.  Guess we’re leaving it to China and Russia, though…

Speaking of Google

More of our worst fears – that search could be manipulated as a political weapon in the WSJ’s “Google Workers Discussed Tweaking Search Function to Counter Travel Ban…”

We keep thinking search engines  are like a fire or police department:  Politics should stay out of them.  But, since the web is both monetized and weaponized, again, we have dark fears that the over-medicated country near you won’t have the mental acuity to see the need.

We argue that having any criteria beyond public interest constitutes abridgement of free speech…as long as the government abdicates net responsibility and sells out to big donors.

Tamely Ending Options

We see a tiny bounce (early) in options pricing going into the end of the cycle.  We wouldn’t be surprised by weakness going into the close, however.  Housing Data and the Fed next week – hardly confidence-inspiring stuff.

News flow (if you don’t count dueling no-fly zones around Syria that could light-up over the weekend) is highlighted with the PMI flash (not to be confused with a PMS flash) an hour into the session.

Nut-Job Economics has a prescription for next week, though: Mavala Switzerland Mavala Stop nail biting 0.3 ounces (10 ml). Or, you can use the same $16 bucks to do almost two round-turns daytrading…  (We’d be doing that if we had dependable redundancy….ahem….

Quotable and Quippable

The Great Pivot is starting?  We read in the NY Times today about “Hacked emails. Social media fraud. Suspected spies and outreach to Trump campaign associates. We unraveled the Russian plot to subvert the 2016 election….”

The Times doesn’t explain Uranium One, or the Hillary skating event (or Foundation or….) to our satisfaction.  But, we do  sense an effort to pivot to a “bad Russia” so the impaired left won’t be disappointed by the lack of Mueller results…

Oh, meantime the democrat double-standard excusers have their work cut out as it’s revealed at Anti-Kavanaugh voices Hirono, Feinstein took campaign cash from Dem colleague who admitted hitting his wife.  We have the best politicians money can buy, don’t we?

Let’s put America on eBay and be done with it, shall we?

Life is not enough: Indiana man, 34, who impregnated 10-year-old girl, gets over 100 years in prison.

Why does this ring a bell? Eat, Pray, Cover Up: Bali Plans New Rules for Temple Visitors After a Decline in ‘Tourist Quality’

Shakes or sheiks department: Opposition Is Growing in Denmark Against an ‘Anti-Muslim’ Plan to Make New Citizens Shake Hands.

If you’re having trouble dieting?  Two brothers want to revolutionize the food industry with maggots.  Not for humans but for animals…which could then end up on your….

OK, here comes the rain…there goes the Internet.  More tomorrow (as we had the foresight to do some writing-ahead this week).

Next week:  Fed, Housing, Earthquake says reader Andy, and we figure some kind of sell-off for month-end.

Come back Monday and bring a few million fields with you…Moron the ‘morrow…

18 thoughts on “Stocks Predicting the Future – Again?”

  1. As you are mentioning Frontier – I’ll point out (from memory) their play was to buy all the old copper infrastructure of firms like Verison in NYC. They do have fiber – but it was not from their buildout efforts – they just bought it out from other worse preforming operations. And Frontier was formed by a trucking firm who wanted low communication rates for its truck operations.

  2. Black Soldier fly larve has been a thing for years. For breeding – a 30 foot high area. They climb a 45 degree slope VS regular maggot 30 degree slope so if regular flies get in – no worries……they can’t get out, die, and become food for the BSFL. Put a worm bin at the bottom/feed zone for further conversion. Work that is 20+ years old now talks about the feed value for pigs. And, of course, chickens are obvious. BioPod I think was the branding from a decade ago. Looks like BioPod changed its bin and once you search BioPod you get to the worm composting crowd. as an example for the not-squicked out.

  3. George
    This comment is aimed at no one in particular.

    “A stroll through the ocean of most minds will
    hardly get your feet wet!” Ted Pierce 1973

    Ted is a good friend who I grew up with and I always remember him saying that. It seems to be getting truer with each new day.

  4. George,

    I feel your internet pain. Where I live in west Tennessee, I am too far from the central switching station for our local telephone exchange to get DSL. I could get DSL if the telephone company (AT & T) would install a DSLAM at the POTTS terminal about a mile from me. They say no dice because there aren’t enough users to warrant the expense. OK, I understand business economics, so I did my research and found a DSLAM that will handle 7 customers; instead of the 75 they would have installed (if they installed). Offered to provide this to them free if they would use it and hook me to DSL. They don’t accept customer supplied equipment. The device used the exact same architecture that theirs did.

    Charter/Spectrum has a fiber optic cable on the pole 250 feet from my front door. Unfortunately, I am 3.5 miles from the nearest “node”; and it is $8,000 per mile for them to connect. Never willing to give in, I found a reconditioned “node” exactly like theirs and offered it to Charter free and to pay the install and monthly fee thereafter. I would be the only one connected to this “node” and it would be hooked to my electric service to power it and recharge the battery backup. Same answer, “we don’t accept customer supplied equipment”. So I am stuck with satellite internet, which I am changing to Hughes Net Business. They use a much larger dish and provide a better data package. Speed is more reliable as well. Hopefully by going with a business oriented service, the connection speed will not drop to snail speed when the kiddies get home from school and log through my current service provider.

    Used Hughes Net Business years ago, but connection speed at that time did not equal the service I am currently with. Connections were always rock solid even in the worst weather, just not fast. Tjhat has changed with the newer satellites and updated equipment.

    Hope your problem resolves soon, but I would not hold my breath.

    Lloyd Snider

    • Lloyd – check your state laws. In Wisconsin a Co-op model ISP has rights to force incumbents to do things. See if your state put in such things then start making co-op noises. I’m betting you’d have service right fast under the idea that if you got hi-speed you’d not be interested in a coop.

  5. A couple of things. Rural living has it advantages and when it comes to business it’s distinct disadvantages. The joy of living in the heart of the Silicon Valley is that I get to enjoy gig speed internet. I do a lot of videos and editing for my business, so downloading real time saves time and money.

    And answer me this…How have liberals taken over our schools? What have they done? Is the alternative to let the Koch brothers dictate our curriculum? In our schools they are teaching kids to code, more advanced science, technology and math in grade school. That sounds pretty pro-capitalistic to me. Strengthening the core of our success here. Training future workers at an early age. A pro-business curriculum unlike any other.

    Now, your angst may be regional in that…It may be that the rest of the country is slacking. Where is their pro-business initiative that would help shape school curriculum? The heartland needs to step it up…Silicon Valley is way overcrowded (and landlocked per se because of the geographical division of a huge Bay and the lack of housing as a result that has driven up our prices) and needs to relocate some of those jobs elsewhere. The FAANG stocks are moving many people to more ffordable locales like Sacramento and Other regional hubs like Indianapolis, Pittsburgh, Austin and the Research Triangle in North Carolina…although that is being held back due to Florence.

  6. I had intermittent problems years ago with dsl. I’d complain and then it would be fine for a while and I’d get dissed as a crank. Finally the phone and internet was unusable and they couldn’t stop denying it. Another tech came out and said that the line several blocks away was full of water. A crew came out and replaced 1k feet of line in about a day. No mention of refunds for lame service though.

    5 years of few problems with my faster cable internet but the neighbor’s dsl is down a lot. One of these days I’ll set up my router with a guest net to help the disadvantaged.

    • NO! In this age of digital risk, remember if some kid busts into the neighbors place and sends, oh, something like a bravo Oscar mike bravo threat to the whiskey hotel you’re the guy whose IP addy the secret service would pounce. How much do you trust your neighbor?

  7. If your cable lines run underground and the ground is saturated regardless of the casing, corrosion at the terminators will cause signal dampening. Hard to locate. lol

    The manufacturing, housing and tech sectors are ultimately dependent on the financial sector. All the other sectors could be running at full speed burning up resources; however, if the financial sector is throttled the other sectors will ultimately be also throttled.

  8. Good thing you’re not with Spectrum. One TV quit working, so I called. Then installed new box they sent. Still didn’t work. Mind you, the other TVs and internet still OK. They scheduled an appointment for 3-4 pm on Thursday. Then called back Friday am to say it would be 8-9 pm. So I went off on errands. After mowing mother-in-law’s yard, I checked messages. It was about 4:30 pm. New message said they would be there between 4 and 5 pm. So I rushed back home in time to find the technician sitting in driveway ready to leave. He fixed the problem in 5-10 minutes with a new cap on end of cable in master BR. Said he has been working until 3 am because 4 techs suddenly quit. Sympathy for you and your problems, George.

  9. CTL has the 2nd largest inventory of in ground fiber optic cable. With 5 g comming this will provide the revenue growth.

  10. “The heartland needs to step it up”

    I beg to differ…
    Lol lol lol
    I’m prone to a nice leisurely walk in the evenings neighbors stopping for coffee bar-b-q where anyone wanting a burger can stop on by. Tired arms from having to wave so know that Norman Rockwell life..
    They can keep the high stress fast pace lifestyles. Gangs and all the trivialized neighborhoods..people that don’t even know who their neighbors are..

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