This weekend was full of “Making” things around the ranch. Because it was so cool in the mornings, high 40’s, it got me to doing some serious noodling on this whole climate issue. Another factor was sweating…a lot! When the morning starts off with coffee and it’s 56 in the shop, that’s what I’d call perfect … Read More
We have a strange way of looking at markets. Theory I cobbled-up called Aggregate Market Theory (AMT). The thinking is very simple (with me, it would have to be, right?) If you have 10-dollars on you, it doesn’t matter whether you have a five in your left pocket and a five in your right. Or, … Read More
Not following? Try to keep up with the class here:Russian-led troops in Donbas attack Ukraine 38 times in last day, says this report. It’s axiomatic that presidents don’t launch missiles while the market is open. So we are reasonably confident that as soon as the market (and after hours) ends this week, things will heat … Read More
Screaming upside open seems to be in store based on the early futures readings. Trade war cools and Bayer shares jump on report of U.S. antitrust deal on Monsanto. Not that anything has changed, though. World’s still a screwy, broken, hyper complex bowl of spaghetti that could break at any moment. Concepts like Anti-Fragile fail because … Read More
Futures up 322 on the Dow? Of course the market’s running up today! Ah, the perversion of economics spun along beautifully along with Hoover II’s SSFM (seriously steamy freaking mess) on 60-Minutia (sic). But in the end, who cares? OK, Melania, then… Forget the DVD taunts (where is the extortion line crossed?), the blah, blah, … Read More
On the Peoplenomics side of the house, we will be taking on a very complicated subject in the ChartPack tomorrow: How much of our contradictory signals in the economy right now can be traced back to corporate tax reform? And while THAT debate (and modeling) continue, there’s the matter of the coming jobs collapse … Read More
Before we get into this morning’s Consumer Price Report from the Labor Department, a reality check is suggested because of what I’ve long-held is one of the Big Lies in economics. I refer to what John Maynard Keynes talked about: He sold the marginally-sane idea that there is a prevailing level of prices. It is this, … Read More
This is one of those slow-motion roll-outs that happens every month: The latest job numbers come in three ways: ADP has a job creation report. Out yesterday and up. Meantime, Challenger job cuts is just out and reads like this: “The nation’s employers announced plans to cut 35,369 jobs in February, down 20 percent from the 44,653 cuts … Read More
As I disclosed to our Peoplenomics.com subscribers this weekend, I took decent-sized (anything over $25,000 is “decent-sized” around here) leveraged short position in the market right at the close Friday. Nerves of steel, momentary trading-insanity, or a wild speculation? This week, we should find out which. Our odd-ball approach to investing deserves a bit of explanation: … Read More
The Universe has a wry – some would say sick – sense of humor. But that’s one way to read the departure of Hope Hicks who has been White House Communications Director. There are many ways to read this. The MSM approach over here seems to broadly tie her departure to the appearance before a congressional committee. … Read More
Just out from Case-Shiller, S&P, CoreLogic, et alia: S&P CORELOGIC CASE-SHILLER NATIONAL HOME PRICE INDEX SHOWS HOME PRICES END THE YEAR 6.3% HIGHER THAN 2016 NEW YORK, FEBRUARY 27, 2018 – S&P Dow Jones Indices today released the latest results for the S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Indices, the leading measure of U.S. home prices. Data released … Read More
The clock is ticking. I’ve been telling you for some weeks now – in fact a few days after the all-time-high in our Aggregate Index January 26th – that it is time to be extremely cowardly. Not that we didn’t score some nice lunch money on the recent bounce. But the clock is ticking. We’re also … Read More
Longtime readers of this website will remember we have written many times about an oddity in human behavior: it appears humans (in this age of mass media/hysteria) have evolved something we label the murder cycle. This popped out of the data many years ago. I noticed that mass murderers seem to do their dirty deeds … Read More