6.3 Percent Home Inflation!

Just out from Case-Shiller, S&P, CoreLogic, et alia:


NEW YORK, FEBRUARY 27, 2018 – S&P Dow Jones Indices today released the latest results for the S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Indices, the leading measure of U.S. home prices. Data released today for December 2017 shows that home prices continued their rise across the country over the last 12 months.

(Continues Below)


The S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price NSA Index, covering all nine U.S. census divisions, reported a 6.3% annual gain in December, up from 6.1% in the previous month. The 10-City Composite annual increase came in at 6.0%, no change from the previous month.

The 20-City Composite posted a 6.3% year-over-year gain, down from 6.4% in the previous month.
Seattle, Las Vegas, and San Francisco reported the highest year-over-year gains among the 20 cities. In December, Seattle led the way with a 12.7% year-over-year price increase, followed by Las Vegas with an 11.1% increase, and San Francisco with a 9.2% increase. Nine cities reported greater price increases in the year ending December 2017 versus the year ending November 2017.

We reckon home prices are just the leading edge – import prices are up 1 percent for the month, too.  (*more on that down in the details of today’s report)

Which, if you break it into a rate-of-change looks like this:

After the report, Dow futures were down about 20 points, but we do understand that generalized inflation (housing and import prices today) is an incoming tide that will tend to “float all boats” – and gold and silver one might think would benefit in turn and well as tangibles like real estate…But, we shall see.

Down Today then Back Up To Records?

That’s one way to read our work on how present-day markets seem intent on replaying aspects of 1929.  In fact, at present rate, there’s a good chance that we have completed a minor fourth wave (of a larger Elliott wave V) and we could just keep going up through the summer.

Or not. World stocks hit three-week highs before new Fed chief’s debut

You see, we are not out of the woods just yet.  1929 data is on a closing basis and there are all kinds of ways to interpret things.  Our work is based on something I cobbled up years ago – Aggregated Markets Theory – which argue that because of machine trading and Internet-speed hot money trading, you can no longer look to a singular index such as the Dow, the S&P, or the NASDAQ to base decisions.

In fact, not only do things like competing foreign markets loom large, but in our curious view, the most accurate time to assess markets world-wide is after the US close on Friday’s.  Other than that (when “hot money” stops momentarily) it’s hard to get a bead on where money flows are going.

Unless you’re a super-computer, that is.

Anyway, as subscribers have known since last week’s Peoplenomics.com report, if the 1928-1929 replay is running, we would expect a decline today and then a major, major rally for the next five trading days after this.

Ure’s truly may wade in long.

The real problem, as explained in Saturday’s report, is what to do about March 2 and the following weekend.

Two factors here:  One is chairman Dennis Nunes has a March 2 deadline for more of the democrat’s information on Russian involvement.  And,, say conspiracy boards around the net…that may have something to do with why there was a recent ad on Houston Craigslist looking for “crisis actors” – and a thousand bucks a day.

Well…here’s where it gets to be a tough judgement call.

If you were placing money on the stock market going on to new highs before March 22 (55-days from the last all-time-high) would you stay in the market when there may be something of an internal battle “between the factions” amongst the PowersThatBe/Deep State?  Hmmm…

Bottom line for non-subscribers: With the big rally yesterday?  We see the market is only 907-points, or so, from new highs to negate the March decline scenario.  That’s only three more days like yesterday.  Figure out why Ure MAY GET LONG for a while today?

16 trading days, so call it 57 points per day.  ‘

All of which ought to be a walk in the park.  Like I say, the only things worrying me are two biggies:  Xi in China is gone Hitler-like in this “president for life” stuff.  That could derail everything.  And then there’s the crisis actors.

Still, sweep all that aside and what’s left?  Other than the potential for a decent portfolio gain in coming weeks – IF this replay to the upside continues.

THIS IS NOT TRADING ADVICE, BUCKO.  But it is cheaper than a trip to a real casino.

Day’s Worth of Data

Swimming in it.  Beside the Housing data, we have…

Bitcoin:  Back up to $10,675.  Might want to hold off the partying for a bit, though.  You saw where Coinbase is doing WHAT?

Coinbase tells 13,000 users their data will be sent to the IRS soon

You do remember who told you that Bitcoin will NEVER be allowed to be a tax-exempt way to accumulate wealth, don’t you?

Durable Goods:

And here’s a trifecta for you…

Import Prices

Just out from Labor Dept:

U.S. import prices increased 1.0 percent in January, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today, after rising 0.2 percent in December. Higher prices for both nonfuel imports and fuel imports contributed to the January advance. Prices for U.S. exports rose 0.8 percent in January following a 0.1-percent increase the previous month.


All Imports: The price index for U.S. imports rose 1.0 percent in January, after increases of 0.2 percent in December and 1.0 percent in November. The 1.0-percent advances were the largest 1-month rises since the index increased 1.2 percent in May 2016. Import prices advanced 3.6 percent between January 2017 and January 2018.

Fuel Imports: Fuel prices increased 4.7 percent in January following a 2.9-percent advance in December and a 9.8-percent rise in November. Higher prices for petroleum and natural gas contributed to the increases in all 3 months. Prices for petroleum advanced 4.3 percent in January, after rising 2.3 percent the previous month and 9.5 percent in November. The price index for natural gas increased 20.7 percent in January following advances of 20.0 percent in December and 25.7 percent in November. Prices for fuel imports rose 19.7 percent over the past 12 months. Petroleum prices increased 20.9 percent for the year ended in January and prices for natural gas advanced 16.2 percent over the same period. “

Which means what kiddies?

I assume that import prices going up 1 percent in a month scares the living sh*t out of you because it means all this Modern Monetary Theory is about to cap your ass with inflation?  (That compounds to 12.6825% per YEAR and since we don’t make anything, you will have to pay higher prices – by a LOT and there goes the Trump bump…)

Buying that hybrid or ultra-high mileage car makes more sense than ever.

Next big data?  GDP for our Peoplenomics.com folks tomorrow which means maybe we can pencil out what is new with the Velocity of Money at M2.  (Do I hear another spreadsheet calling?  Yoo-hoo…)

Speaking of You-Who, have you noticed the “computer virus error” ad that seems to pop up on You-Who’s site in non-market hours?  Thinking about calling their investor relations folks.  Insulting damn popup and no, it’s not a virus.  Think delayed load adjacker…poor form.  Hope they get a hell of a premium because it’ll drive users away over time.  (Tested on multiple computers…. seems to be timed if multiple windows are open…) Pissed me off, sorry.

And in Other Snooze

Bernie Sanders’ Son Is Running for Congress in New Hampshire.

Global Wound Care Product Market to be Worth USD 21.79 Billion by 2022.  Unless the gun-grabbers get their way.  Then it may be more…

Make note of liberal “deep thinkers” department: Norway’s Underground Doomsday Seed Vault Is Under Threat From Climate Change. Side of hype with your eggs this morning?

Headless Horseless Carriages: California OKs autonomous car testing without backup drivers.

You need to read Warren Buffett’s annual letter to Berkshire shareholders if you haven’t.

Here’s a quote that seems to go hand-in-glove with our pragmatic view of consumer super-saturation.  Buffett’s finding it hard to find good primary companies to buy:

“In our search for new stand-alone businesses, the key qualities we seek are durable competitive strengths; able and high-grade management; good returns on the net tangible assets required to operate the business; opportunities for internal growth at attractive returns; and, finally, a sensible purchase price.
That last requirement proved a barrier to virtually all deals we reviewed in 2017, as prices for decent, but far from spectacular, businesses hit an all-time high. Indeed, price seemed almost irrelevant to an army of optimistic purchasers.

Why the purchasing frenzy? In part, it’s because the CEO job self-selects for “can-do” types. If Wall Street analysts or board members urge that brand of CEO to consider possible acquisitions, it’s a bit like telling your ripening teenager to be sure to have a normal sex life.”

Sounds to us like a lot of business are trying to sell at (or adjacent-to) the long wave economics top.

Once you do take the time to consider Buffett’s letter, then you can read the NY Times spin on it in “Buffett’s Annual Letter: Berkshire Records $29 Billion Gain From Tax Law…”

While you’re doing that, I’m going to have breakfast and then contemplate Peoplenomics for tomorrow…be well and more here on the free side of George Thursday…


6.3 Percent Home Inflation! — 15 Comments

  1. So? Obama illegally started DACA, kept our borders wide open flooding us with criminals that ARE killing Americans, he signed NDAA after he said he wouldn’t, he encouraged illegals to vote, his namesake, Obamacare, is a disaster for the country, and there’s so much more. I won’t get started on Hillary except to say her husband is a rapist and she had no problems with that. Who cares what Alex Jones said. Look at the facts that matter like the DNC and Hillary paying for the dirty dossier then using it for a FISA warrant. You obviously haven’t researched Hogg, what wrong with your fingers????

  2. I’ve noticed that the local area mortgage companies by me are slowing down.

    The loan officers I know who also moonlight as real estate agents say they are making money by selling homes and not writing loans.

    This could mean there are too many mortgage brokers. Or, the business model changed to electronic ‘Rocket Mortgage’ type platforms.

  3. If you’re out there trying to buy a house do what I have done and do what my daughter I taught her to do negotiate with the owner not the banker.
    You can get a lower rate of interest and you can reduce the amount of the fees that an agent will charge you by just going directly to a real estate lawyer who will handle all of the things for a lesser price than an agent would.

  4. Interesting!

    I might send you an email with some alternatives!

    IF stocks fail to get back to the all-time highs THEN turn back down on higher volume/volatility THEN we are looking at the potential for a rapidly approaching DEATH COUNT. That would count WAVE ONE down ending at DOW 23,400. WAVE TWO up would lead to a near retracement but failing. Then WAVE THREE down would be BIGLY!

    It is actually a set-up for an alternate count in Robert Prechter’s At The Crest of the Tidal Wave which would be Figure 5-7 in that book.

    I think DOW 25,000ish really needs to hold and DEFINITELY the 23,400ish low. Then I have a scenario where things get to DOW 30,000 by late Spring, another a-b-c sell-off, with a 1987-style late summer high somewhere around 35,000.

    So, look into good charts of 1986-1987.

    55 years plus the 1974 takes us to 2029.

    144 years plus the start of the DJIA in 1896 takes us to 2040.

    So, this thing may have room to go!

    Either way, I would have an elevated cash position (some gold, too) since even the rallies will be swing-trader style things. NOT a buy and hold market this year.

    da bear

    When the going gets odd — the odds get better!

    • Throwovers signal not a break out, but exhaustion of a trend.

      Pinpoint top was Jan 26th, NY Composite Index, NASDAQ, DJ Industrials & S&P all topped on this day.

      Wave (3) crash should be next.

      (All summarized from Elliot Wave Theorist, Feb 2018)

  5. Hey G, did you see that David Hogg challenged Alex Jones to a debate on his show? Then right after Alex Jones accepted he quickly said he couldn’t go on his show. ROTFLMFAO! It was all over Twitter.

    That kid wrote a check his ass couldn’t cash. I’m not a big AJ fan, but he would eat David Hogg for breakfast, lunch and dinner. Hahahhaha..

    David Hogg best stick with CNN and MSNBC, where he is protected from real people.

    • Who was protecting Hogg “from real people” two weeks ago today? Add him to the list of republican horribles along with teachers who travel to the fourth world to fight pandemics. And French fries too.

      This is Mr. Jones. The fact that he has any platform and any followers at all speaks volumes for the state of today’s republicans who are willing to “believe” that Hillary and Obama are real, true to life demons from Hell.

      “There are dozens of videos and photos of Obama having flies land on him, indoors, at all times of year, and he’ll be next to a hundred people and no one has flies on them. Hillary, reportedly, I mean, I was told by people around her that they think she’s demon-possessed, okay? I’m just going to go ahead and say it, okay? Imagine how bad she smells, man? I’m told her and Obama, just stink, stink, stink, stink. You can’t wash that evil off, man. Told there’s a rotten smell around Hillary. I’m not kidding, people say, they say — folks, I’ve been told this by high up folks. They say listen, Obama and Hillary both smell like sulfur. I never said this because the media will go crazy with it, but I’ve talked to people that are in protective details, they’re scared of her. And they say listen, she’s a frickin’ demon and she stinks and so does Obama. I go, like what? Sulfur. They smell like Hell.”
      A. Jones 10/10/2016

  6. With the coming inflation down the road, Silver prices should rise in price substantially. To benefit on this prediction, I am looking to buy 90% silver US junk coins (not looking for coins with a collector value premium) on ebay auctions.

    The PCGS Coininflation app gives you the current silver value of the coin based on the current silver prices. By looking at the coins pictured in the auction, you can calculate the silver value of the coin lot being auctioned. Based on this valuation, you know what price to bid. I have a couple of bids in, so it will be interesting to see how this plan works.

    • Be careful. You have a good idea because the 90% junk coins are better buys (more liquidity) than the proprietary bars/rounds from different sellers. Look at some long term silver forecasts. Some forecasts are predicting $12-13 in five years. I’m not sure I’d look at silver as an investment as much as a hedge.

      Also, think how you’ll get out. If you plan on selling on ebay/paypal don’t forget you’ll be paying selling and transaction fees of around 10%. Face to face sales will also be discounted. Whatever you buy today you’ll be selling at a loss tomorrow because of fees. You need a 10% gain just to maintain your investment.

  7. at what interest rate does the camel’s back break? is it possible to calculate a graph with each fed’s rate hike in advance of the “market has it priced in” at their current trend of 25 basis points?