Say, don’t want to run this stuff in your face, particularly if you’re a Coiner and haven’t laid-back enough to buy a subscription to Peoplenomics (and pay all those short-term capital gains you’ll owe this year), but I just have to point out that with Bitcoins trading in the $12,250 range, you will want to look again at where we are per our trend channel work:
Does this mean The End is here (or near) for cryptos so dear? See our Monday discussion of what “momentary” means. Can’t say for sure, but when it comes, we expect it could “let some of the air out” of the stock market.
What we see as as something of a rollover may be occurring, however. The stock market futures were up +200 on the Dow when I looked. This suggests that there is “new money” coming into the market from somewhere.
We have three suspects, or sources.
One is people realizing that with the tax cuts, this might be a good time to actually save a little something for a rainy day. The money coming in this way is likely long-term dough and won’t increase market volatility, too much/. (knock on wood, right?)
The next source is the notion that some of the criminal element in Bitcoin positions has rolled out of “silk road” money and is looking for something more legit and less subject to confiscation as ill-gotten gains.
The reason I think this way is simple: Bitcoin – and any other crypto, for that matter – is only has good as the media you have it parked on.
So, since real criminals are very, very, smart (think Raymond Reddington types if you follow The Black List) they will have figured out how many hours a hard drive (or how many read-writes a sim chip) is good for. Best roll dough off them before failure because if they don’t, the “money” could be gone.
I won’t say who the friend is, but someone I know is already out $40K because of a “lost wallet” issue. Remember where you read it first: Besides being much too slow to be a major money replacement, Bitcoin users are subject to hardware failures. Poof!
And this gets us to the third kind of money that’s looking at the market and which could fuel a 1929-equaling blow-off which we sure seem to be in: Fixed income money is looking at the rollover into inflation – and what may turn into hyperinflation and asking “What will go up in value?”
Ure’s thoughts on this are dirt-simple: Metals, Oil, Foods. The lack of hype out of the Consumer Electronics Show in Las Vegas is hinting (to us, at least) that the 20-year boom from tech may be slowing. Over time it has done what, exactly?
Well, tech has brought us the Internet. This has enabled the end of conventional news distribution so ably capitalized on by the Tweeter-in-Chief. The decline of ad power is driving the media to new levels of left-wing fear mongering, and oh yeah – tech has also brought us social media. Which, as we point out in the Coping section to follow this morning is where networked computing’s version of DIGITAL LYNCH MOBS (a/k/a/ social just-us warriors) are being monetized right now.
Obviously, people in Bonds won’t want to see their portfolios decline, so they will likely put a little dough on the long side of the market based on the idea that something’s bound to go up.
And yes, it is, and it will continue doing so for a while. We will have some firmer projections in Peoplenomics tomorrow, but for now, there is no end of the bull market in sight for stocks. When I have lost money trading in the past year, it was because I didn’t follow my perfectly-performing trading model. Who would have thought a few spreadsheets and some math could outperform the gut-trading human? Which is why we don’t try to front-run the models anymore.
And the models say…well, more on that tomorrow on the subscriber side. Meanwhile, though, the hype continues: Global Blockchain Technology Market to Be Worth USD 13.96 Billion by 2022. Trend channels say tread cautiously.
Need more blockhead hype? Maersk, IBM to launch blockchain-based platform for global trade. OK, why? Isn’t the present technology working?
Econ Data du Jour
NY Fed Survey:
Business activity continued to grow at a solid clip in New York State, according to firms responding to the January 2018 Empire State Manufacturing Survey. The headline general business conditions index, at 17.7, was little changed from last month’s level.
Dow may bust over 26,000 at open with futures +209.
NKs Planning Cyber Pearl Harbor?
We have been following snips that chief Nostracodeus programmer Grady has been culling from Twitter and other places around the net about B-52 rumored to be positioning into the Pacific.
We’re also not fooled by the NorK’s sending some athletes to the Seoul Winter Olympics and maybe an orchestra – all on the docket for next week’s hype-fest of useless media.
Instead, read this backgrounder from out .mil whiz Warhammer because itd IS important:
Not just nukes, Rocket Man and terrorist attacks are on the minds of US defense leaders. This interesting and admittedly frightening attack concept is occupying the minds of senior leaders in Washington lately (from AF Times News):
Head of DOD IT Cybersecurity: Monster Cyber Attack “Looming”
The Pentagon is “prepared for” an unprecedented cyber attack, says director of the Defense Information Systems Agency, touting continuous and ongoing success defending against attacks that are increasing in both frequency and scale. Army Lt. Gen. Alan Lynn called the anticipated attack a “terabyte of death,” hundreds of times larger in-scale than those in recent years. “We know it’s coming,” he said at an Armed Forces Communications and Electronics Association event in Washington, D.C., according to a DOD release. Lynn commended the Defense Department on holding down the fort thus far, but said he’d found the scale of the cyber offensive against American networks “truly surprising and it still continues to surprise me just how robust the attacks have become.” For example, D?OD used to have to protect against one- or two-gigabyte attacks. “Now, we get 600-gig attacks on the internet access points and unique, different ways of attacking that we hadn’t thought of before,” he added. The Air Force is working with DISA on redesigning its own network gateway infrastructure—the one defending those access points—climbing aboard a federal effort to conjoin the services into one, central highway for web traffic. Air Force Magazine dug deep into the cybersecurity challenges facing USAF in its January cover story. DOD is aiming to reduce stovepipes of cybersecurity policing and increase visibility and reaction time in its systems. This is an ongoing challenge, especially on the the Defense Department’s scale, where 3.2 million people interact with its networks, according to Lynn, who retires in February. —Gideon Grudo
Indeed, a well planned a comprehensive cyber attack can inflict almost as much chaos upon a nation as a high altitude EMP attack, but for a more limited amount of time. Still, critical infrastructure would suffer, e.e. food, water, energy, gasoline and essential supply distribution would be largely halted and a great deal of the population inadequately prepped for such things would endure life threatening hardships.
How many Trojan horses are already in place, silently waiting in hard drives and processor firmware, ubiquitously spread across every imaginable sector of our daily lives. Every new smart electronic device could contribute to the “Terabytes of death” scenario….”
And, are there still routers – made overseas, yeah? – which have backdoors in the code we haven’t found?
This threat is evolving quickly: In August of last year a White House advisory group was on it.
There’s not too much that can be done about this as the personal level – other than hardening websites, backing up data off the net, and such. Lots of back-up, sure. Can’t ever have too many.
But taken in concert with the early lesson on how much has already been lost in Bitcoin on data losses, we can only imagine what a digital Pearl Harbor would be like. Especially one timed to coincide with mass distractions.
Like the Olympics and Mueller’s fishing…
In View: The End of Detroit
The big Auto Show is on in Motown. It comes with the expected battle between the new ways and the old.
On the new ways side, we have GM with an aggressive plan to field driveless cars in 2019. More to the old-school, we laughed as Nissan was trying to ‘splain to skeptics like me how their new Xmotion design concept is really anything new.
When we read this “...we’re drawing on Japanese aesthetics and techniques that have been passed down generation after generation to create a timeless visual impression...” the whole battle of the new tech versus the old became crystal-clear without the need of another latte.
Companies that don’t have plans for the arrival of driverless cars – which will mean the end of dealer networks and the like – are the corporate ostriches of the decade.
Oh – for our reader in Hawaii, notice this: Japan broadcaster alerts North Korea missile launch that didn’t happen. What rolls downhill?
News That’s Noise
White House doc to provide more details about Trump’s health. WHY? So social media and the Useless media can second guess and diagnose? Good grief!
Report: Death of Penn student investigated as act of rage. Umm….aren’t most murders acts of rage? I musta missed something.
The Latest: Pope begs forgiveness for Chile priest sex abuse. Doesn’t he have more local issues on topic?
And if all this doesn’t disgust you yet, leave the breakfast table and read this one:
The Cigarette Smoking Man, perhaps?
Global Warming Strikes East Texas
18F at byte time: 31 for a high today.