Markets Push-out Crash Date, CPI & Retail Data

Sure, we’ll get to this morning’s latest hysterical over-reaction to Donald Trump’s immigration comments in a minute.  But, honestly, there are much more important things going on that will impact your life in the short-term, so should be ready to deal with them.

First, and foremost, (because we are unabashedly capitalistic at our core) the market has just put in new highs, as we were hinting at in earlier columns.  The case is building for the S&P 500 to close OVER 3,000 in the not-so-distant futures.  And despite the hand-wringing of the media, this has come on president Warbuck’s watch, so a little less hysteria and  more attention to the bottom line, if you please?

Now, our first REAL story: Here is our latest calculation of the earliest possible date for a crash to occur – barring nuclear war or a planet-killing asteroid…

(Continues below)

 

Ready?

If, perchance, you hear Chicken Little yelling “The sky is falling!” hand him the dates and ask him to drop by later.  New highs were looking likely this today.  Which means Sell in May and Go Away could be the real deal this year.  Toss in a 5th wave up into August or September, and election jitters setting in for the fall could drive a major decline in late October.

That said, there is one other inference from all this – and meaningful in the short-term:  IF the market is going to take a header this fall, it would stand to reason that January will NOT close higher than December’s close.  In fact, we could have a modest decline any old time.  The calculations…well, that’s more a subscriber thing.  It’ll hold until tomorrow.

Meanwhile, think of it this way:  Modest decline to close January a bit lower, providing the Big Boys with a buying opportunity.  But, not so much of a decline as to wreck the storyline.  Which would mean? Because by time we get to the “earliest likely crash date” the market would be back to present levels (or higher).  Thus, the Big Boyz make money taking milk money from the kids.  Again.

About the CPI Data

Short version is this:\

The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) increased 0.1 percent in December on a seasonally adjusted basis, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Over the last 12 months, the all items index rose 2.1 percent before seasonal adjustment.

An increase of 0.4 percent in the shelter index accounted for almost 80 percent of the 1-month all items increase. The food index rose in December, with the indexes for food at home and food away from home both increasing. The energy index, which rose sharply in November, declined in December as the gasoline index decreased.

The detail level looks like this:

Gas prices suck.  Futures point to a mixed market today – pushing back any crash date now done – and Bitcoins are still meandering around in the $13,500 to $14,000 level.

Retail Sails

Read the data and you’ll understand the headline…

“Advance estimates of U.S. retail and food services sales for December 2017, adjusted for seasonal variation and holiday and trading-day differences, but not for price changes, were $495.4 billion, an increase of 0.4 percent (±0.5 percent)* from the previous month, and 5.4 percent (±0.7 percent) above December 2016. Total sales for the 12 months of 2017 were up 4.2 percent (±0.4 percent) from 2016. Total sales for the October 2017 through December 2017 period were up 5.5 percent (±0.5 percent) from the same period a year ago. The October 2017 to November 2017 percent change was revised from up 0.8 percent (±0.5 percent) to up 0.9 percent (±0.2 percent). ”

Picturized, looks like this:

Yet Another Trumpstorm

Once again, crooked left-bent media are calling president Trump a “racist” this morning.  As usual, they are reporting what they have “made up” rather than what he actually said.  Out of context is stock-in-trade of the crooks of the Establishment Left who are the playground bullies that the Establishment Right is too stupid to deal with.

Yes, Trump was reported by the Washington Post as follows:

In a midday immigration meeting with senators in which they discussed the fate of certain immigrants from Haiti, El Salvador and some African nations, Trump became frustrated and made a reference to “shithole countries,” arguing that the U.S. should bring in more immigrants from Norway instead, according to several people briefed on his comments.”

Denied, by the way: admits to tough lingo, though.

We have long questioned the apparent left-wing agenda – to flood America with social system-dependent, eventual democrat voters – on the pretext of it being the “humanitarian” thing to do.

Which brings us smack into the larger question of humanitarian aid.

Trump – with a typical “developer’s mindset” – would view things like the Haiti quake long ago (it’s been seven years now) as an opportunity to rebuild an improved region.  Reinvent the country.  In other words, encouraging people to run away from their problems rather than FIX THEM doesn’t solve anything for the people who are stuck in so many of the world’s (pardon this) shithole countries.

As a poster circulating on the net explains:  Liberals think everyone should be equal at the finish line.  Conservatives think everyone should be equal at the starting line.

Obviously, everyone in the world can’t all come here, despite the irrational left’s efforts.  There’s simply not room.  But they COULD borrow our Constitution and get on the road to self-improvement.  Do they?  No…especially in third world what-holes…

Norway happens to be the 23rd most educated country in the world while the US comes in at #14 by some measures.  But World Economic Forum data suggests the US is #8 while Norway is #7…

Haiti, by contrast, is the 12th LEAST educated country in the world, eclipsed on the downside only by such utopian learning centers as Somalia, Chad, Mali, Niger, Burkina Faso, Afghanistan, and South Sudan.

Sadly, most people are easily manipulated into the “racism” cattle chute, rather than looking at data/ metrics dealing with the percentage of population with education attainment.

There is much more going on here than meets the eye, but we will save that for Peoplenomics subscribers tomorrow and a focus piece titled “Trumpstorm and Terraforming.

If you’re on the hate-Trump wagon – rather than thinking deeply about what the president said, considering the data, and finding solutions to benefit all, here are  suggested readings to keep you walking in the ruts of Obama and the socialist left:

Anderson Cooper, Don Lemon Call Trump ‘Racist’ Over ‘S-thole Countries’ Remark.

Donald Trump’s “Shithole Countries” Comments Are Racist, United Nations Says Amid Global Backlash.

Trump Alarms Lawmakers With Disparaging Words for Haiti and Africa.

Illinois Democrats assail Trump immigration comments as ‘vile,’ ‘racist’/

Tomorrow, we will roll out the hard demographic data that no one in American politics dares to talk about.  Because, as is so often the case, snap-reaction (cheered by the left) is to bash Trump.  Demonizing versus datafying – here we go — again.

Instead, we read the numbers and see how he got there.

It ain’t racism kiddies.  It’s called developer math versus the global socialist agenda.  More tomorrow.

The Money Miners

Are looking at this: Chinese bitcoin miners eye sites in energy-rich Canada.

Laughably, Bitcoin pricing is largely based on how much energy can be spent maintaining….Bitcoin.

The math phrase that pays here is “circular reference.”

People are too dumb to understand, but let me show you the kind of conclusions even a dime store MBA can lead to:

Bitcoins are Driving Global Warming!

Damn, the Truth hurts, don’t it?

Grandpa, what did you do when Earth was wasting its one change to become a space-faring world?”

“Why, I pissed away scarce resources making up hash codes, of course.  But, that’s how we got rich enough to buy this survival bubble from which we can survey the remnants of Earth….”

Well, time to blast off into the stock-o-sphere for another day at the Bubble.  have a great weekend and ya’ll come back Monday.  Y’hear?

Comments

Markets Push-out Crash Date, CPI & Retail Data — 28 Comments

  1. “Laughably, Bitcoin pricing is largely based on how much energy can be spent maintaining….Bitcoin.”

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/comment/liamhalligan/10978178/The-dollars-70-year-dominance-is-coming-to-an-end.html

    HMMM.. our manufacturing is from… most of our products are made in… we rely on for money to survive.. our dollar is backed by what.. hmmm

    http://fortune.com/2016/10/02/china-yuan-imf-currencies/
    http://www.chinadaily.com.cn/business/2017-09/01/content_31408818.htm

    I am currious what happens to the Dollar and the USA’s if the saudi’s decide to use the Juan instead of the dollar.

  2. Why do you keep trying to call the top of the stock market……and keep missing? Sure you will eventually be right if you call it every six months or so but it really makes you look silly when you keep missing it.

    • Typical non-subscriber remark. Our trading model on PN has been long since Nov 2016… “Missing it” only happens when our model is wrong…and it hasn’t changed since 2016

  3. I can’t make up my mind about the largest problem on earth. Is it A)too many people (with regard to available resources)or, is it B)unequal distribution of intelligence?

    P.s. All else seems a derivative of either. IMHO, of course!

  4. From a pure political standpoint (meaning politics as a meeting between people to solve a problem), Donald Trump put his foot in his mouth up to his knee . . . it was an amazingly ‘stupid’ remark for someone who was supposed to be skilled in the ‘art of getting deals done.’

    For me, racism is a different issue altogether – if this is merely sizing up ‘business opportunities’, Trump has totally forgotten that he is President of the United States and should act as such.

    This world is a ‘closed environment’ – whatever minor thing we do, affects others. He does not understand the power of the office.

    And if you wish to be remembered by history (a la Warhammer’s comment) it is not good to be concerned about a thousand years – do you think in terms of ‘religious domination’ like the Catholic church, or political domination like Rome etc or the failed domination of the Nazis? I hope not, as the only way for this to happen would be for Trump to start a World War . . . Better to be remembered as a minor president of a country on the North American continent in the twenty-first century.

    • Not to mention the first ‘large scale’ immigration of Norse people to other countries included ‘the Vikings’ – not anyone someone would invite willingly!

    • the Presidents only problem and actually one I admire and look forward to..( why you might ask.. you know what his first thoughts are.. not some double talk mumble jumbo) is he speaks his mind.. before he has weighed both sides of an issue or given it some time I speaks his first thoughts on an issue..
      why would Scandinavian people that openly brags about being the happiest people on earth want to move to america where the vast majority feel they are being played by the very people that are suppose to be looking out for them. (http://time.com/4706590/scandinavia-world-happiness-report-nordics/ ) Oh that is before they opened the borders though.. since then crime and violent crime is on the increase.
      (http://time.com/4706590/scandinavia-world-happiness-report-nordics/
      https://www.express.co.uk/news/world/768980/Sweden-cover-up-migrant-rape-violent-crime )
      so in reality I totally see how the president formulated his off the cuff response if he did.. a group that openly says they are sending in fighters to the us posing as refugee’s
      ( https://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2017/jan/29/isis-finds-success-infiltrating-terrorists-into-re/ ) seriously did we truly think they were joking when they openly told us that. they weren’t hiding anything..
      many get a free education on the publics dime. I happen to have known four people that had come here that got a free college education. Yet sarah and john down the street’s parents had to get special high interest loans and mortgage their homes to send their children to school.
      ( http://www.spokesman.com/stories/2016/may/24/us-colleges-offer-syrian-refugees-scholarships/ )
      In my mind I totally get it.. not being racest but.. here we are a country that feels we should be the world police force. we are in what 170 countries and how many active battles.. the middle class workers are the ones footing the bill..
      The President believes america first.. Protect our borders and stop any fighters from infiltrating any more than they already have. we don’t understand the culture there.. we pick and choose the biblical passages we decide to follow.. the culture there is to follow the book word for word.. now go read the old testament or the bible or any of the other ancient religious texts.. and then follow it word for word.. one that catches my eye is Kill People Who Don’t Listen to Priests
      Anyone arrogant enough to reject the verdict of the judge or of the priest who represents the LORD your God must be put to death. Such evil must be purged from Israel. (Deuteronomy 17:12 NLT)Death for Hitting Dad
      Whoever strikes his father or mother shall be put to death. (Exodus 21:15 NAB)
      Death for Fornication
      A priest’s daughter who loses her honor by committing fornication and thereby dishonors her father also, shall be burned to death. (Leviticus 21:9 NAB)
      the list is pretty big.. see they live it word for word… We don’t we pick and choose. we are not ready for a war from within and we are the ones footing the bill.
      So make sure anyone coming to america as a refugee has our country and customs as a priority.. don’t just open the borders..

  5. FYI –

    “Underwriting Requirements for Loans with DTIs Exceeding 45%

    We are concerned with the recent increase of loans that have debt-to-income (DTI) ratios exceeding 45%, particularly when combined with weaker credit profiles.

    As a result, effective with mortgage insurance applications received on or after March 1, we will insure loans with DTIs exceeding 45% only when the Representative Credit Score is 700 or greater.

    This change applies to loans with an Agency automated underwriting system (AUS) response. Our non-Agency Underwriting Requirements currently do not allow DTIs exceeding 45%.

    We will continue to monitor this development and evaluate the need for further changes.

    We’ll post our updated Underwriting Guide and underwriting summaries with these changes on or before March 1.”

  6. potus should use his recent executive order and give the people of haiti back the money pilfered by the clintonites and bushanistas.

  7. We remember with fondness the “civil” manner of speaking of such greats as LBJ, Nixon, JFK and Truman. No foul language there.
    By the way, when was the last time anyone went to Hati? After coming back then let me know what you think of the “shi*-hole” reference.

  8. Look, there is a way you are supposed to behave in what my mother would call “polite company” She would be appalled to have him as a son. It’s as simple as that.

    • the scumbag politicians that brought him a ‘deal’ that did not include anything that he wanted…so he spoke to them as he should have.’.since HE was not in any ” polite company”….

  9. You are absolutely missing the boat! Donald Trump needs more good people like you surrounding him. Few can pull such a huge cart of BS and call it better business when its really more money for those who already have more than they need. Your explanation of what — “make America great again” really means would be very helpful.
    Does it mean to makes us as great as we were when we accomplished one of the greatest genocides in recent history, eliminating both those pesky Indians and the buffalo as well. And turned one of the most beautiful places on earth into a blacktop and concrete ugly jungle with filth, junk, waste, polluted water, poisons, etc. everywhere. Or the great killing of 50% of all the native animals especially spraying and poisoning all those bees, bugs, and extra poor people that we don’t need. More money for the rich and the corporate masters — now dang, that SURE IS GREAT. Your being a Trump FAN (like a football fan!) will only do you future good — if you use it to get on his staff of ‘protectors’ — he needs more like you — but since you are far smarter than he is — you’d best be careful. I’m betting that in the future you will back him — as much as you are backing the idea that “this is a replay of the great depression of 1929” LOL
    Hope you have a great day cause you are a really good guy !

  10. As a local talk show host said this AM, there are bleepholes in the USA such as parts of Detroit, Chicago, Baltimore and Applachia. Even the Bible applies positive thinking theory to humanity, “As a man thinketh, so he is”. Until the locals’ mindset in those bleepholes changes, their lifestyles and countries won’t. And I agree that merit based criteria for immigrant approval is the best way.

  11. “the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Over the last 12 months, the all items index rose 2.1 percent before seasonal adjustment.”

    When I visit my local ’99cent store,’ items are up from minimum 29% to maximum way past 100% during the same time. Nothing the same or for less ;-(. In my block a haircut goes for $40 (and some people pay this amount!) I remember $0.75 while the working population could reside in Manhattan. Some progress — we’ll all have to turn corrupt before the final solution will have arrived.

    • Shopping at the Dollar Tree everything is still $1. It is the last stronghold against inflation.

  12. It’s not that Trump didn’t mean well. He needs to learn to SAY what he means, not the opposite. It is called decorum. Great leaders have a knack for bringing people together by their unprecedented knowledge, tactful wit, and compromising demeanor. Trump could get so much more done if he would just do one of those things.

    You wouldn’t go up to a good friend and say..” You aren’t as fat as the last time I saw you. Did you lose weight?” No… a simple “You look great” is the best thing to say. The Trump way may have worked in his small, private company, but has never worked in a larger, more public forums…ever.

    • I forgot to mention that the Republican agenda is a very sound one that will continue to propel this country forward. But, on this particular Trump “racist” issue…you can’t blame the left or the Democrats. In fact, you can’t blame anyone by Trump himself. The fact that he denies it, is further proof, based on his past transgressions, that he did indeed say it. If there is one thing that EVERYONE agrees on, it’s that Trump never says “I am sorry” for anything.

      I worry about my party and Trumps foot in mouth tendencies. What Trump should have said is..” Immigrants are the back bone of our Great Country. As it states on our own Staue of Liberty…Give me your poor huddled masses, we will continue to support those in need. But we also need to look ahead to make our country even greater by attracting the worlds top talent and invite them to reap the rewards of our beautiful cities, top rated schools and world leading companies.”

      That is what he probably meant to say…so he should just say it. A President using an Iron Wokers syntax will not attract the best and brightest…it WILL drive them away. Take a speech class Don…you need it.

      • If he drives them all away AND keeps others from coming here..HE has done his job to MAGA….what ever verbal noise comes out of his mouth…if it is not liked by any scumbag politician…so be it…imho

    • The presentation upsets folks but I haven’t heard anyone answer the question? Read this comment this am – I’m from a Sh_thole country and I’m so mad at Trump I won’t come to the United States and go on welfare. your mileage may vary…

      • Exactly.. saves me from saying.. and don’t let the door smack you on the way out..
        I don’t mind if someone comes and raises a family gets a job etc. but they should not be eligible to receive benefits they should not get special educational privileges no job security.. they should have to compete as everyone else does. They should pay all taxes associated with being American and pay a non resident fee. They should have to abide with our customs and ways speak our language. (My ancestors had to )
        Americans first..

  13. Trump is being transformed by the progressive media and liberal left from a flesh and blood mortal man to a representation, an exemplification or symbol for any idea or act that does not advance the progressive agenda. Trump has become a living myth, the combined personification of Mordred, Chaos, Hades, England’s King John and Cesare Borgia, Machiavelli’s real-life model for ‘The Prince.’ The President Trump is now largely disconnected from the New York/Queens billionaire CEO, author and TV personality – historic, far far bigger than his real self. yes – he’s officially HUGE! And for better or worse, the media and political left are making Trump-the-myth HUGE-er every day. For better or worse, history will remember him for 1000 years.

    • Sorry, but nobody remembers anything any more. If they did Hillary would never have been a candidate for dog catcher let alone President.

      • Steve it totally depends on the WHO that is pushing the situation. I think that is why scandals are buried enforcement agencies overlook the obvious and seek out scape goats. I think if the president wasn’t a self made man and billionaire and subjective to the whims of the power monkeys money things would totally be different.
        Instead if you read between the lines on every single article that denounces him for all reasons the underlying message he is criticized for is (Put the American laborer first. Put American industries first make America safe by protecting the land) instead that underlying message is ignored

    • Giving the news people the penchant to twist things, it is OK with me he threw them a bone to naw on. Lol, the news people come across as such tools.