Sure, we’ll get to this morning’s latest hysterical over-reaction to Donald Trump’s immigration comments in a minute. But, honestly, there are much more important things going on that will impact your life in the short-term, so should be ready to deal with them.
First, and foremost, (because we are unabashedly capitalistic at our core) the market has just put in new highs, as we were hinting at in earlier columns. The case is building for the S&P 500 to close OVER 3,000 in the not-so-distant futures. And despite the hand-wringing of the media, this has come on president Warbuck’s watch, so a little less hysteria and more attention to the bottom line, if you please?
Now, our first REAL story: Here is our latest calculation of the earliest possible date for a crash to occur – barring nuclear war or a planet-killing asteroid…
If, perchance, you hear Chicken Little yelling “The sky is falling!” hand him the dates and ask him to drop by later. New highs were looking likely this today. Which means Sell in May and Go Away could be the real deal this year. Toss in a 5th wave up into August or September, and election jitters setting in for the fall could drive a major decline in late October.
That said, there is one other inference from all this – and meaningful in the short-term: IF the market is going to take a header this fall, it would stand to reason that January will NOT close higher than December’s close. In fact, we could have a modest decline any old time. The calculations…well, that’s more a subscriber thing. It’ll hold until tomorrow.
Meanwhile, think of it this way: Modest decline to close January a bit lower, providing the Big Boys with a buying opportunity. But, not so much of a decline as to wreck the storyline. Which would mean? Because by time we get to the “earliest likely crash date” the market would be back to present levels (or higher). Thus, the Big Boyz make money taking milk money from the kids. Again.
About the CPI Data
Short version is this:\
The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) increased 0.1 percent in December on a seasonally adjusted basis, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Over the last 12 months, the all items index rose 2.1 percent before seasonal adjustment.
An increase of 0.4 percent in the shelter index accounted for almost 80 percent of the 1-month all items increase. The food index rose in December, with the indexes for food at home and food away from home both increasing. The energy index, which rose sharply in November, declined in December as the gasoline index decreased.
The detail level looks like this:
Gas prices suck. Futures point to a mixed market today – pushing back any crash date now done – and Bitcoins are still meandering around in the $13,500 to $14,000 level.
Read the data and you’ll understand the headline…
“Advance estimates of U.S. retail and food services sales for December 2017, adjusted for seasonal variation and holiday and trading-day differences, but not for price changes, were $495.4 billion, an increase of 0.4 percent (±0.5 percent)* from the previous month, and 5.4 percent (±0.7 percent) above December 2016. Total sales for the 12 months of 2017 were up 4.2 percent (±0.4 percent) from 2016. Total sales for the October 2017 through December 2017 period were up 5.5 percent (±0.5 percent) from the same period a year ago. The October 2017 to November 2017 percent change was revised from up 0.8 percent (±0.5 percent) to up 0.9 percent (±0.2 percent). ”
Picturized, looks like this:
Yet Another Trumpstorm
Once again, crooked left-bent media are calling president Trump a “racist” this morning. As usual, they are reporting what they have “made up” rather than what he actually said. Out of context is stock-in-trade of the crooks of the Establishment Left who are the playground bullies that the Establishment Right is too stupid to deal with.
Yes, Trump was reported by the Washington Post as follows:
“In a midday immigration meeting with senators in which they discussed the fate of certain immigrants from Haiti, El Salvador and some African nations, Trump became frustrated and made a reference to “shithole countries,” arguing that the U.S. should bring in more immigrants from Norway instead, according to several people briefed on his comments.”
Denied, by the way: admits to tough lingo, though.
We have long questioned the apparent left-wing agenda – to flood America with social system-dependent, eventual democrat voters – on the pretext of it being the “humanitarian” thing to do.
Which brings us smack into the larger question of humanitarian aid.
Trump – with a typical “developer’s mindset” – would view things like the Haiti quake long ago (it’s been seven years now) as an opportunity to rebuild an improved region. Reinvent the country. In other words, encouraging people to run away from their problems rather than FIX THEM doesn’t solve anything for the people who are stuck in so many of the world’s (pardon this) shithole countries.
As a poster circulating on the net explains: Liberals think everyone should be equal at the finish line. Conservatives think everyone should be equal at the starting line.
Obviously, everyone in the world can’t all come here, despite the irrational left’s efforts. There’s simply not room. But they COULD borrow our Constitution and get on the road to self-improvement. Do they? No…especially in third world what-holes…
Norway happens to be the 23rd most educated country in the world while the US comes in at #14 by some measures. But World Economic Forum data suggests the US is #8 while Norway is #7…
Haiti, by contrast, is the 12th LEAST educated country in the world, eclipsed on the downside only by such utopian learning centers as Somalia, Chad, Mali, Niger, Burkina Faso, Afghanistan, and South Sudan.
Sadly, most people are easily manipulated into the “racism” cattle chute, rather than looking at data/ metrics dealing with the percentage of population with education attainment.
There is much more going on here than meets the eye, but we will save that for Peoplenomics subscribers tomorrow and a focus piece titled “Trumpstorm and Terraforming.”
If you’re on the hate-Trump wagon – rather than thinking deeply about what the president said, considering the data, and finding solutions to benefit all, here are suggested readings to keep you walking in the ruts of Obama and the socialist left:
Tomorrow, we will roll out the hard demographic data that no one in American politics dares to talk about. Because, as is so often the case, snap-reaction (cheered by the left) is to bash Trump. Demonizing versus datafying – here we go — again.
Instead, we read the numbers and see how he got there.
It ain’t racism kiddies. It’s called developer math versus the global socialist agenda. More tomorrow.
The Money Miners
Are looking at this: Chinese bitcoin miners eye sites in energy-rich Canada.
Laughably, Bitcoin pricing is largely based on how much energy can be spent maintaining….Bitcoin.
The math phrase that pays here is “circular reference.”
People are too dumb to understand, but let me show you the kind of conclusions even a dime store MBA can lead to:
Bitcoins are Driving Global Warming!
Damn, the Truth hurts, don’t it?
“Grandpa, what did you do when Earth was wasting its one change to become a space-faring world?”
“Why, I pissed away scarce resources making up hash codes, of course. But, that’s how we got rich enough to buy this survival bubble from which we can survey the remnants of Earth….”
Well, time to blast off into the stock-o-sphere for another day at the Bubble. have a great weekend and ya’ll come back Monday. Y’hear?