Hinting at the Jobs Report

Of course, the “offishul” job report doesn’t come until this time tomorrow.  But already, we have two indicators out to consider.  The first of which is the Challenger Job Cuts Report.  If you’ve been booing president Trump, might want to keep reading…

“CHICAGO, January 4, 2017 – U.S.-based employers announced 32,423 job cuts in the last month of the year, bringing the year-end total to 418,770. That is the lowest annual total since 1990*, when 316,047 cuts were recorded, according to a report released Thursday by global outplacement consultancy Challenger, Gray & Christmas, Inc.

“The retail pivot that caused thousands of store closures and job cuts was not seen in any other industry this year,” said John Challenger, Chief Executive Officer of Challenger, Gray & Christmas, Inc.  “While companies in the Pharmaceutical, Health Care, Construction, and Food industries did announce more job cuts than last year, it was nothing like the Energy cuts seen in the last two years or the Financial cuts seen during the recession,” added Challenger.

(Continues Below)

 

More from the job cuts report:

Employers announced 20.5 percent fewer cuts than the previous year, when 526,915 cuts were announced. Last month saw a 7.4 percent decrease from November’s total of 35,038, and a 3.6 percent decrease from the 33,627 cuts announced in the same month last year. “

Scream all you want about Trump and the so-far, mostly made-up by democrats “Russia probe”  the economy is doing just fine.

Backing up the trend is the second job report this morning – this one is the ADP data and it gives some insight into how many jobs were created in the most recent reporting period:

 “ROSELAND, N.J. – January 4, 2018 – Private sector employment increased by 250,000 jobs from November to December according to the December ADP National Employment Report®. Broadly distributed to the public each month, free of charge, the ADP National Employment Report is produced by the ADP Research Institute® in collaboration with Moody’s Analytics. The report, which is derived from ADP’s actual payroll data, measures the change in total nonfarm private employment each month on a seasonally-adjusted basis.

If Ure addicted to drill-downs, try this:

There will be a quiz on this data after lunch.

Tomorrow’s Labor Department report does have one implied problem:  Not a big one, but something to think about:  When the jobs picture gets too bright, it can rather quickly turn into an inflation problem.

Not says it’s entirely the case, but do look at the price of gold which has quietly crawled back from the dead and is over $1,300 per ounce.  Silver has a Lazarus act, too, peeking over $17 per ounce.

Neither of these is a humongous deal – yet.  And as long as the average starting wage is moving up toward the $15 per hour mark, we don’t think it is a bad thing.  But again, how long before rising labor costs will catch-up with the Quarter Pounder prices?  (Notice we didn’t go for the cheap pun ketchup with the hamburger prices?  That is pun-restraint at its finest!)

All of which is one of the supporting reasons why we are still expecting the market to continue its advance for a while longer toward the next target we laid out in Peoplenomics Wednesday.

If you’re serious about finance, this is for-sure one of those “Let the good times roll…” periods.

Now, if someone would just keep Medicare from eating up all the annual Social Security adjustments, that would be nice.

Don’t Take the News Too Seriously

Because sometimes there’s humor when you look.

As caught our eye this morning when we spied this on the RSS feed summary that runs 24/7 on our www.computationalfuture.com news-scanner website:

One supposes it’s better to have the Fox following the deer tracks than the Wolf…

We now return you to the truly depressing crap…

Climate Change!  Warming!!!

Everyone!  Run from the street!!!  Women and Children First!

Really?  Yesterday while chipping away at the assorted intractable computer problems I was half-listening to a few Morse code ham operators up and down the eastern seaboard.  They kept referring to the current cool spell as “The Clipper…”  Was there a Packard car meet-up?  Hmmm…why were they going on about temperatures, so much?

Apparently, the early editions of the NY Times weren’t out yet.  Because their marketing-gone-mad-to-whip ’em-up is?

We’re waiting for some snowcaster in California, Colorado, or Washington, to misread it as a “Snow Bong” and this will be followed, almost certainly  by attaching a gender to the storms and with “Storm Dolls” sure to follow.  After that, we forecast a new industry called “Storm Cookware” suitable for the worst of Blizzards.  (Excluding those from the DQ.)

Meanwhile, we acknowledge CBS for a bit more factualizing: Massive winter storm roars into Northeast after dropping rare snow on South — live updates.  Maybe they need to hire some hypesters…

We are all crazy, I’m afraid.  Need more proof?

Speaking of Computers

Huge advocate Linux, are you?  Try this one: How to protect your PC against the major ‘Meltdown’ CPU security flaw.  Equal Opportunity bugs in Intel processors…

Windows and Linux detection tools are here.

After which I got: “Status: Detection Error: This system may be vulnerable, either the Intel(R) MEI/TXEI driver is not installed (available from your system manufacturer) or the system manufacturer does not permit access to the ME/TXE from the host driver.
Tool Stopped”

Oh crap… ‘nother one for the to-do list.

Social Disease Emerging

Every generation has its own take on what a “social disease” is.

For us oldsters, it was getting the syph or the clap…so much for the free love of the 60’s & 70’s, huh?  Later, it was AIDS/HIV… and then gender identification…which, when you think about it, figured in the previous cites.

Now guess what?  We have a real gem on the horizon:  Schools ‘should help children with social media risk’.

Yep…seems lil children may need some kind of “readiness” to engage in the sickly perverted time-waster called social media…a psycho-social disease.

At the risk of being harsh?  Take the “devices” away from the little darlings, slap em on the butt when they sass,l and hand them books.  Maybe they can learn to read…  But, oh, that meany on the website is bullying again.  FMTT.

Bitcoin on the Brink

Still waiting for the wave count to sort out:  Over $19,500 we start believing the touts proposing $35,000.  Below $11,000 and the fraidy-cats rumoring $2000 begin to make sense.

Creds, Creds, Who’s Got ‘Em?

Whether you like Trump, or not, the real question is who do you believe?  The Steve Bannon dude, or president Warbucks?  (I tend to follow the money as it was a good strategy with the Clintons, but that’s not the point.)

What is?  Stories like this in the Washington Post:

 Tweet disease seems to run in the family.  Donald Jr’s tweet on topic is here.
Also of note: Fire breaks out at Hillary and Bill Clinton’s compound in Chappaqua.  No word as to cause that we’ve seen, but it was in the guest (Secret Service) house…
Sourdough pancake time…moron the ‘morrow…

Comments

Hinting at the Jobs Report — 22 Comments

  1. “Clipper” is short for “Alberta Clipper,” a fast-moving burst of really cold air which whips south or SSE out of Alberta and usually meets up with a mass of warm, moist air over Minnesota or Nebraska, then dumps a load of snow on Iowa, Illinois, Indiana, and sometimes Arkansas. I’ve never heard the term “clipper” used with respect to an Eastern storm.

    I DID hear the term “bomb cyclone” for the first time, TODAY, on The Weather Channel (and the second, third…, 50th, etc. As a meteorology hobbyist since 1966, I find it somehow offensive that the meteorology industry coins a new term every year or so, simply to inject tabloid scare into their broadcasts, to stimulate ad dollars.

    IIRC, one has to affirm that they’re 18, to acquire a Facebook or Twitter account (yes, I read the TOS’.) Therefore, there should be no need for primary or secondary schools to ever discuss social media risk. By doing so, they’re suborning a criminal violation of a contract.

    WRT Bannon, consider the source, who is, BTW, not Steve Bannon…

    Sorry if I’m kinda curt. I’m in the middle of R&R on four kerosene heaters (as any prepper will tell you, multiple, redundant backups are always a good idea.) It has been below zero for eleven straight days, and I’m starting to contemplate moving to a warmer climate, like International Falls, or Minot, or frickin’ Nome! ‘Haven’t lost power yet, but the lines can only contract so far before there’s an issue. No sympathy for the East Coast and their piddly-assed little storm…

    BTW the engineering on the Chinese Sengoku heater is amazing. The way they circumvented the Perfection and Toyotomi patents is a sight to behold. Their fit & finish sucks donkey, er, ears, and therein lies their problem. Toyo/Kero-Sun stoves are the best there’ve ever been, for a reason.

  2. Regarding the Spectre/Meltdown issue, with the Feds recommending companies replace ALL computer hardware, one wonders exactly what the agenda is here.

    We suspect the problems were caused by NSA back doors in the first place, and recommending replacement of all hardware sounds like an artificial kick for the economy.

    According to everything I’ve read, the holes have existed since 1995, and we are just now being told/finding out? Furthermore, I don’t trust Google and Project Zero as far as I can spit.

    No matter how you slice this one, it smells like a “Russian” plot.

  3. MORE NEWS!!

    https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2018-01-04/environmentalists-outraged-after-trump-announces-massive-expansion-offshore

    Let’s see – Cuba is 90 miles from Florida. Cuba is ramping up their oil exploration – I am designing equipment for a company right now that has Cuban leases. It doesn’t matter if FL screams at the top of their lungs – the Cubans don’t care.

    There is no oil or gas on the western coast of FL, but there is near Miami, where the state has allowed drilling for decades. Repeat – drilling is allowed in the swamps near Miami, but they don’t want it offshore of the swamps?

    The cognitive dissonance is deafening…

  4. NEWS? Try this for some supreme backwardation and watch the amazing failure of retroactivity in action:

    https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2018-01-04/jeff-sessions-rescinds-policies-have-allowed-states-legalize-pot

    The comments are really hilarious as well. Idiot Sessions thinks he will suddenly just turn the clock back after the cow not only left the barn, but distributed milk all over the pasture.

    I think I am going to re-watch the movie “Idiocracy” one more time, because his logic is about the same level as the guys pushing Brawndo….

  5. George,

    Were any severs thermally treated um. . .cleaned? It’s always a shame lose . . . Hot Information! Rimshot!

    Coop

  6. I just read Michael Wolff’s extracted column in the Hollywood Reporter from his book Fire And Fury. None of it surprised me. I think now we have a pretty good sampling of at least 3 Presidents that in reality, have had zero effect on our economy and overall policies. They are all puppets of the Corporatocracy system. Do I blame George W for the 2008 crash? No…I mostly blame Greenspan and Hank Paulson and the rest of the PTB. Do I give credit to Obama for the recovery from the crash? No…the markets have a way of correcting themselves for the benefit of the PTB. Do I give credit to Trump for the present economy? No. Again, the markets run on their own. It;s a follow the money system.

    My Take is that U.S Presidents have about as much power as British Royalty. They are just figureheads to give Americans the perception that we have a say. We don’t. Corporations do.

  7. I work in fast food. Price hikes on some items were put in place when we opened on Tuesday. Also, every time they raise the minimum wage, the bosses have to give us adults raises so the teenage new-hires aren’t making almost as much as we are. Inflation is already happening, it is just masked by the overall deflation and watering down of our money.

    • I wish and pray that all young people were as bright as you, Jerry. Thank you for the Street Level Economics report.

      • Not young. I will turn 60 on this year’s birthday.

        I work with youngsters. Don’t always enjoy it. There are some good kids, but as a rule they aren’t paying attention to the world around them. I watched 3 of them stepping over/around a napkin on the dining room floor before I gave up and went out myself to pick it up and throw it away.

        JB

  8. It’s possible that gold/silver are moving up for the start of oil/yuan and I believe oil/yuan/gold trade in China on the 18th….could be wrong though…

  9. Sorry, Conservatives. Your Trump fiasco will only get worse. Please try to be a little more careful with your vote in the future. Mike.

  10. Just curious, a week or so ago you said Bitcoin was going to tank like tulips within two weeks (I beleive). What happened? Was it so fast I missed it? What is your prognosis now? Will it never end?

    • My opinion is that it will end, and badly. But I am also mindful of the data, Tom, and it says there are still two resolutions to the wave structure. When we break out on the upside 19,500 higher then the lower option dies. But if we take out 11,000 on the downside, there goes the bullish case.

      The first stop should be 16,279, plus or minus a sandwich, first, though

    • Tom – I think you missed the point on the bitcoin into tulips crash theory article. Also, the timeframe for the bitcoin crash is mid January.

  11. One question always bothered me on job reports, “why isn’t farm employment reported”? As a critical element in the economy why are the front line farmers/workers are ignored? Are we missing valuable information on how the big Ag-firms, packing and processing plants and implement dealers are doing? And which why food prices will trend.

  12. Hey George, I was talking to police officer that was at our New Years party about Social Media and he was talking about what a horrible effect it is having on the young people of this country, his dept. has section that deals with the school dist. and he said some of the stuff they are dealing with is just down right sick! And we don’t have a clue to the long range effects! He also said if it went away today it would not be soon enough!

  13. One hopes that no email trail of future interest was lost in the Chappaqua blaze.

  14. Well many troubles and problems out there,ATT handed out $1,000 dollar bonus’s which the media and press spun into utopia is here at last, what they didn’t say was they also handed out 1,000 pink slips the following day (Dec. 24) along with the news that they were going to slash and burn 30% of their work force and outsource jobs to India,then of course you have the endless closings of small business’s, the lay-off list is loaded with them everyday,Toys are Us is closing a 1,000 stores. Our good governor is crying that we are in the hole, bills are coming due but the pantry is empty some reports say perhaps up to $8 billion dollars worth, and most other states are no better off,probably most of the short lived jobs increase can be laid to speculation, that with Trump in office its “business as usual” that’s where I would place my increase in S.S. guess even if I loose it $4 bucks won’t break me…