Longtime readers of this website will remember we have written many times about an oddity in human behavior: it appears humans (in this age of mass media/hysteria) have evolved something we label the murder cycle.
This popped out of the data many years ago. I noticed that mass murderers seem to do their dirty deeds within 135 to 150 days of one another preceding event. It is very difficult to be more precise than a date range because we are dealing with something that on a scatter chart looks like a bell curve. In other words, there is a central tendency toward the 142 day range.
Sadly, the events at the Florida high school yesterday were right in this expectation date-range at 136 days. No, I do not know why this works, but on October 1 of 2017, you will remember a mass shooting was occurred up in Las Vegas. Our work, suggesting the ideal number would be 139 days, had led to us expecting that this coming weekend (President’s Day?) would be when the outrage shooting could be expected to occur.
Sadly, this was not the case. About all we know – besides 17 dead – is that the shooter was a former student, reportedly aged 19, and there is informed speculation that his abhorrent actions were inspired by Isis.
Not to put on a major damper on your Thursday, but if we apply the average murder cycle length of 135-146 days forward from Valentine’s Day, it indicates that we should expect another mass killing event, only this time in the vicinity of the Fourth of July this summer.
We don’t like to make such look-ahead predictions, but there is the data, and there is some statistical basis that seems to be predictive of sick human behavior.
With such regularity, we have to wonder if it is, at a deep and undiscovered level, by design.
Special Subscriber Update
On our subscriber website this morning, you will find an update on the method I enumerated yesterday to help determine if we are on the right side of the 1929 mega bubble popping, or if we are on the left side.
This is a critically important question because it informs our view of the future.
For example, if we are in a period analogous to the short, sharp market decline which began from the low December 13,1928, that would suggest a stock market peak in late September through October (even early November) of this year.
On the other hand, if we are on the right side of the 1929 bubble, we may already be in the massively decline phase of world stock markets. Just hasn’t dawned on us yet.
Subscribers may open the article here. BTW: Our subscription prices ($40) have not changed for 10-years, earning Peoplenomics a reputation as one of the best values available to independent-thinking, private investors.
Several readers asked me to explain why the article was titled Occam’s spreadsheet. This little snippet from Wikipedia should help:
“Occam’s razor (also Ockham’s razor; Latin: lex parsimoniae “law of parsimony“) is a problem-solving principle that, when presented with competing hypothetical answers to a problem, one should select the one that makes the fewest assumptions. The idea is attributed to William of Ockham (c. 1287–1347), who was an English Franciscan friar, scholastic philosopher, and theologian.
In science, Occam’s razor is used as a heuristic guide in the development of theoretical models, rather than as a rigorous arbiter between candidate models. In the scientific method, Occam’s razor is not considered an irrefutable principle of logic or a scientific result; the preference for simplicity in the scientific method is based on the falsifiability criterion. For each accepted explanation of a phenomenon, there may be an extremely large, perhaps even incomprehensible, number of possible and more complex alternatives. Since one can always burden failing explanations with ad hoc hypotheses to prevent them from being falsified, simpler theories are preferable to more complex ones because they are more testable.”
We have no idea why the erudite academic community insists on the spelling Occam rather than the more correct Ockham; you’d have to have the group-think crowd yourself. I suspect like so much of what they do it’s laziness and lack of rigor.
Whenever possible, we like to reduce problems of predicting the future to their simplest elements. In this case, combining our work in Aggregate Market results in present times with a couple of data segments from the 1920s, provides some very interesting insight into upcoming market direction.
Or, so we hope!
From our contributing dot-mil oak leafy cluster fellow warhammer:
I’m fairly certain Russians were not controlling the T-72 tank obliterated by a Reaper drone a few days ago:
SecDef Mattis would never take a chance of diplomatically escalating the Syrian skirmish with Russia.
That said, this episode, along with the Soviet fighter recently flying within an estimated 5 feet of a U.S. Navy surveillance aircraft in late January, shows that both the U.S. and Russia are militarily posturing aggressively against the other. Such tactics often lead to unexpected consequences which result in military escalation and ever more antagonistic acts of bravado, all out of fear that one party might best the other on the world stage.
Quoting that omnipotently wise green fellow: “Fear is the path to the Dark Side. Fear leads to anger. Anger leads to hate. Hate leads to suffering.
And so, Syria presses to another climax.
Economic Data du Jour
Philly Fed, Empire State and Producer Prices/Final Demand are all rolling now. Ready to cycle through them?
“The Producer Price Index for final demand increased 0.4 percent in January, seasonally adjusted,
the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Final demand prices were unchanged in
December and moved up 0.4 percent in November. (See table A.) On an unadjusted basis, the
final demand index rose 2.7 percent for the 12 months ended in January.
In January, the rise in the index for final demand is attributable to a 0.3-percent increase in prices
for final demand services and a 0.7-percent advance in the index for final demand goods.
The index for final demand less foods, energy, and trade services rose 0.4 percent in January, the
largest advance since increasing 0.5 percent in April 2017. For the 12 months ended in January,
prices for final demand less foods, energy, and trade services moved up 2.5 percent, the largest
rise since 12-month percent change data were available in August 2014.”
On the Empire State Manufacturing:
And the Philly Fed Manufacturing Outlook?
The futures were up nearly 300 points early today. They since have backed off to up 169. (Index options expire tonight.)
And Bitcoin is trying to work its way up out of the downward trend channel, but so far still stuck between the lines at $9,615 earlier.
Noble Savage BS
One of the popular lies and misstatement of the lliberals is that the native people who inhabited America before the mass migration from Europe were peaceful, loving, kind, gentles, blah, blah…
Well, it’s bullshit.
A read of Peter Turchin’s book Ultrasociety: How 10,000 Years of War Made Humans the Greatest Cooperators on Earth will straighten you right out. Native Americans were mass killing one another pretty much non-stop before white/anglos showed up. Archeology meet politically driven lies.
Reason I mention this? (Other than liberals bash Trump, so I feel bashing is fair game nowadays…)
Well, here’s a story in the news this morning about a Gruesome mystery: 8,000-year-old skulls found on wooden stakes.
Yes. They of old were very territorial and very much prone to mass murders of opposing or encroaching tribes. Pissy people. Not what the “gentle savages” profiles sold by left-wing PC educators (and SJW’s, and blah blahs) would have you believe at all.
Revisionism is afoot that would make the Kremlin proud. Native Americans were killing one another before whites arrived in N.A. despite what the shame-sellers keep trying to stuff into the empty heads of their potential revolutionary recruits.
Since we’ve done our share of trans-con small plane flying, we have to wonder what sort of range these things will have. 500 nautical is a good number and yeah, I seriously doubt it. But go ahead – surprise me. No extension cords, please.
Maybe this will help: Demonstration of a single molecule piezoelectric effect. Or not.
More on the morrow…