Recent news events, including the shooting deaths of more than 50 people at a machinegun attack in Las Vegas last night, begins to fit something of a pattern.  Was it a radical?  Initially, we’re told no.  Was it home-grown terrorism or someone with a drug or alcohol issue?  Again, in time we will learn.

At the macro level, however, it is as much a “complexity” discussion as anything.  We have seen people beginning to stay away from major league sports and political gatherings.  Now, with last night’s attack, we wonder if people will begin to lessen attendance both at concerts and other big public venues, as well as more sporting events in the Future?

To be sure, there are plenty of reasons why public gatherings can be a problem…

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We saw, for example, at the WTO protests in Seattle long ago how effective anarchist agent provocateurs could be, leading to mayhem, and such.  Then in places like Ferguson, MO. we saw people “taking it to the streets” which were then torched; attacking the local folks who had businesses, rather than pursuing peaceful means of redress.

It’s my long-time observation that if you want change, lawyers work better than small groups against “the system.”

We can begin to trace out impacts already.

It’s a given that Hotels in LV will begin to take a much more proactive role in screening people attending the big shows the city is famous for.  This means boxing, entertainers, and beefed up security in other ways as well.  One of the big exposure areas, and I don’t know if you’ve ever been in ‘the mob’ at check-in time Friday or checkout time around noon on a Sunday morning, but we have.  It’s another “soft target.”

We might generalize even further:  Is the time coming (or here already) when the benefits of Big City Living are becoming smaller than the risks?

We already know Big Cities have long commute times, they have more environmental problems, and as noted they are where terrorism and “mass casualty” events happen.

There is an upside, sure:  World-Class everything:  Food, entertainment, shopping, culture…we know the list.

Still, Big Cities are also where the drugs are….though meth is a rural epidemic, too. But the black tar heroin trade in Las Vegas cost us a (distant) relative last year, so we’ve been a bit skeptical of Sin City for a while.

Now this.

As always, we believe Everything Is A Business Model.  So later today, when the publicists wake up, look for people who weren’t in Las Vegas last night to begin making pronouncements right and left.  By noon today, the entertainment promoters will have their usual shopping cart of “experts” showing up and making comments that are obvious (and often useless) while the news-actors (formerly news anchors) hang on their every word.

Unless you knew someone who was there last night, or you have tickets for an upcoming event in LV, other than acknowledging it is so sad, might we offer this would be a fine time to read “The triage of truth: do not take expert opinion lying down.”

As Nigel Warburton sagely notes in the article “The so-called Information Age is too often a Misinformation Age.”  Amen and give me a hallelujah.

Be the first on your block with a “slime list.”  Count the people who go-sleaze by feathering the own nest on the back of a horrific national tragedy. I hope it’s a short list, but I fear it won’t be.

We will update our “mass murder cycle” work (135-145-days) accordingly.  Keep an eye on the window February 13 to February 25 as statistically interesting.

The January 1 shooting in a Turkey nightclub (39 dead) was two cycles back.

Public Be Damned in Spain

Our second item on the news front is the weekend suppression of freedom of association in Europe.

As you should know by now, parts of Catalonia voted to opt-out of Spain this weekend.  Not pleased with the referendum, the Spanish government is vowing to use all the tools it can to put down this grassroots effort.

If it leads to an all-out Civil War, we would not be surprised.  As anyone knows Ecclesiastes reports there’s nothing new under the Sun.  So we are off to this history books (or Wikipedia ‘cuz I’m lazy) for a quick read of how their last one went:

The Spanish Civil War (Spanish: Guerra Civil Española),[nb 2] widely known in Spain simply as The Civil War (Spanish: Guerra Civil) or The War (Spanish: La Guerra), took place from 1936 to 1939. The Republicans, who were loyal to the democratic, left-leaning and relatively urban Second Spanish Republic, in an alliance of convenience with the Anarchists, fought against the Nationalists, a Falangist, Carlist, and largely aristocratic conservative group led by General Francisco Franco. Although the war is often portrayed as a struggle between democracy and fascism, some historians believe it should more accurately be described as a struggle between leftist revolution and rightist counter-revolution.[5] Ultimately, the Nationalists won, and Franco then ruled Spain for the next 36 years, from April 1939 until his death in November 1975.”

I’m not sure what causes the problems with Spain:  They have a massive superiority attitude towards anything in South of Central America.  Which means because Spain looks down on them, those countries treat indigenous peoples poorly.  It’s a fine example of how “stuff rolls down hill.”

Notwithstanding the history course, have haven’t seen the US taking a strong defense of “free people” like the State Department did in Ukraine.  But, far as we know, Catalonia doesn’t have a huge natural resources like the Dnieper-Donets petroleum basin – which was what the fox-uniform in Ukraine was about.

You forgot?

Ure not to blame.  The crooked sidewinders of the NE press are always quick to criticize and bury the facts.  In this case, let me see if I can explain why Catalans are going to be screwed:  How about “Everything’s a business model?”

Good Cop, Bad Cop

It’s like watching a TV detective duo going after a perp with the good cop cozying up to the perp while the bad cop make their life miserable.

And, in this NPR account, you will see how Donald Trump is playing the bad cop role very well.  Saying unlike Clinton, Bush, and Obama, he’s not going to fail.

If you want a reasonable forecasting tool of when the U.S. is set to strike the North, come hell or high yield, go back to this instructive February article.  It revealed how South Korean appliance (and phone) giant Samsung was contemplating building a U.S. Factory.

This was followed by the July announcement that Samsung was going to South Carolina.

It’s deeper than just Samsung.  Please observe that South Korea’s L.G. Electronics is building a factory in Tennessee, as well.

It may be something of a rush, too.  Notice that “NOX Corp., a South Korean vinyl tile maker, moved into the former Atlas Crankshaft building on U.S. 23 south of town in July of 2015.”  Look for Six Degrees Flooring made in Fostoria, Ohio.

Meantime, we’ll be watching for U.S. expansion by some of South Korea’s shipbuilding companies including

We expect Samsung may go first, having already conquered the issues involved in setting up shop in South Carolina.

But we shall see. Right about now, though, I would be looking through a list of U.S. shipbuilding yards to see who might be for sale.

Stockman:  Right But Early?

Good read over at CNBC about comments by one “David Stockman: Trump tax reform overhaul is a pipe dream, stocks are heading for 40-70% plunge.”

Stockman is hereby welcome to the Longwave Economics Bear Club.   However, like our own work, he’s likely early — again.

Remember, David Stockman’s Bear Bible (really titled The Great Deformation: The Corruption of Capitalism in America) came our in 2013.  Not saying he’s a permabear…it’s just that the real mess-to-come will be when Social Security and Pension Funds blow up (and federal debt is repudiated, we think like through hyperinflation and some kind of New Dollar) at some point down the road.

But not today, Josephine.

So, Where Are We?

Other than the Bitcoin notes at the bottom of Coping, you mean?  Bitcoins should remain around $4,400 until they aren’t.

Wednesday, Thursday, and Friday we get employment data.

Some ISM and PMI data an hour into the session, but for now, Dow looking to open up 50.

Our consigliere is due to Uretopia ranch tomorrow afternoon.  With far too many things to cover in a short visit, we will have very basic columns tomorrow through Friday.  Peoplenomics this week will be mainly the charts and detailed outlooks.  Next Saturday, we will get to the detailed report on Knowledge Compression that I’ve been working on.  Been a really interesting adventure.

So, bean ’em up.  It’s time to hit and git.  Mor’on the Morrow!

Coping: Expectation Setting
Coping: With Future Seers and Predictors