The Take-Down of Public Gatherings?

Recent news events, including the shooting deaths of more than 50 people at a machinegun attack in Las Vegas last night, begins to fit something of a pattern.  Was it a radical?  Initially, we’re told no.  Was it home-grown terrorism or someone with a drug or alcohol issue?  Again, in time we will learn.

At the macro level, however, it is as much a “complexity” discussion as anything.  We have seen people beginning to stay away from major league sports and political gatherings.  Now, with last night’s attack, we wonder if people will begin to lessen attendance both at concerts and other big public venues, as well as more sporting events in the Future?

To be sure, there are plenty of reasons why public gatherings can be a problem…

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We saw, for example, at the WTO protests in Seattle long ago how effective anarchist agent provocateurs could be, leading to mayhem, and such.  Then in places like Ferguson, MO. we saw people “taking it to the streets” which were then torched; attacking the local folks who had businesses, rather than pursuing peaceful means of redress.

It’s my long-time observation that if you want change, lawyers work better than small groups against “the system.”

We can begin to trace out impacts already.

It’s a given that Hotels in LV will begin to take a much more proactive role in screening people attending the big shows the city is famous for.  This means boxing, entertainers, and beefed up security in other ways as well.  One of the big exposure areas, and I don’t know if you’ve ever been in ‘the mob’ at check-in time Friday or checkout time around noon on a Sunday morning, but we have.  It’s another “soft target.”

We might generalize even further:  Is the time coming (or here already) when the benefits of Big City Living are becoming smaller than the risks?

We already know Big Cities have long commute times, they have more environmental problems, and as noted they are where terrorism and “mass casualty” events happen.

There is an upside, sure:  World-Class everything:  Food, entertainment, shopping, culture…we know the list.

Still, Big Cities are also where the drugs are….though meth is a rural epidemic, too. But the black tar heroin trade in Las Vegas cost us a (distant) relative last year, so we’ve been a bit skeptical of Sin City for a while.

Now this.

As always, we believe Everything Is A Business Model.  So later today, when the publicists wake up, look for people who weren’t in Las Vegas last night to begin making pronouncements right and left.  By noon today, the entertainment promoters will have their usual shopping cart of “experts” showing up and making comments that are obvious (and often useless) while the news-actors (formerly news anchors) hang on their every word.

Unless you knew someone who was there last night, or you have tickets for an upcoming event in LV, other than acknowledging it is so sad, might we offer this would be a fine time to read “The triage of truth: do not take expert opinion lying down.”

As Nigel Warburton sagely notes in the article “The so-called Information Age is too often a Misinformation Age.”  Amen and give me a hallelujah.

Be the first on your block with a “slime list.”  Count the people who go-sleaze by feathering the own nest on the back of a horrific national tragedy. I hope it’s a short list, but I fear it won’t be.

We will update our “mass murder cycle” work (135-145-days) accordingly.  Keep an eye on the window February 13 to February 25 as statistically interesting.

The January 1 shooting in a Turkey nightclub (39 dead) was two cycles back.

Public Be Damned in Spain

Our second item on the news front is the weekend suppression of freedom of association in Europe.

As you should know by now, parts of Catalonia voted to opt-out of Spain this weekend.  Not pleased with the referendum, the Spanish government is vowing to use all the tools it can to put down this grassroots effort.

If it leads to an all-out Civil War, we would not be surprised.  As anyone knows Ecclesiastes reports there’s nothing new under the Sun.  So we are off to this history books (or Wikipedia ‘cuz I’m lazy) for a quick read of how their last one went:

The Spanish Civil War (Spanish: Guerra Civil Española),[nb 2] widely known in Spain simply as The Civil War (Spanish: Guerra Civil) or The War (Spanish: La Guerra), took place from 1936 to 1939. The Republicans, who were loyal to the democratic, left-leaning and relatively urban Second Spanish Republic, in an alliance of convenience with the Anarchists, fought against the Nationalists, a Falangist, Carlist, and largely aristocratic conservative group led by General Francisco Franco. Although the war is often portrayed as a struggle between democracy and fascism, some historians believe it should more accurately be described as a struggle between leftist revolution and rightist counter-revolution.[5] Ultimately, the Nationalists won, and Franco then ruled Spain for the next 36 years, from April 1939 until his death in November 1975.”

I’m not sure what causes the problems with Spain:  They have a massive superiority attitude towards anything in South of Central America.  Which means because Spain looks down on them, those countries treat indigenous peoples poorly.  It’s a fine example of how “stuff rolls down hill.”

Notwithstanding the history course, have haven’t seen the US taking a strong defense of “free people” like the State Department did in Ukraine.  But, far as we know, Catalonia doesn’t have a huge natural resources like the Dnieper-Donets petroleum basin – which was what the fox-uniform in Ukraine was about.

You forgot?

Ure not to blame.  The crooked sidewinders of the NE press are always quick to criticize and bury the facts.  In this case, let me see if I can explain why Catalans are going to be screwed:  How about “Everything’s a business model?”

Good Cop, Bad Cop

It’s like watching a TV detective duo going after a perp with the good cop cozying up to the perp while the bad cop make their life miserable.

And, in this NPR account, you will see how Donald Trump is playing the bad cop role very well.  Saying unlike Clinton, Bush, and Obama, he’s not going to fail.

If you want a reasonable forecasting tool of when the U.S. is set to strike the North, come hell or high yield, go back to this instructive February article.  It revealed how South Korean appliance (and phone) giant Samsung was contemplating building a U.S. Factory.

This was followed by the July announcement that Samsung was going to South Carolina.

It’s deeper than just Samsung.  Please observe that South Korea’s L.G. Electronics is building a factory in Tennessee, as well.

It may be something of a rush, too.  Notice that “NOX Corp., a South Korean vinyl tile maker, moved into the former Atlas Crankshaft building on U.S. 23 south of town in July of 2015.”  Look for Six Degrees Flooring made in Fostoria, Ohio.

Meantime, we’ll be watching for U.S. expansion by some of South Korea’s shipbuilding companies including

We expect Samsung may go first, having already conquered the issues involved in setting up shop in South Carolina.

But we shall see. Right about now, though, I would be looking through a list of U.S. shipbuilding yards to see who might be for sale.

Stockman:  Right But Early?

Good read over at CNBC about comments by one “David Stockman: Trump tax reform overhaul is a pipe dream, stocks are heading for 40-70% plunge.”

Stockman is hereby welcome to the Longwave Economics Bear Club.   However, like our own work, he’s likely early — again.

Remember, David Stockman’s Bear Bible (really titled The Great Deformation: The Corruption of Capitalism in America) came our in 2013.  Not saying he’s a permabear…it’s just that the real mess-to-come will be when Social Security and Pension Funds blow up (and federal debt is repudiated, we think like through hyperinflation and some kind of New Dollar) at some point down the road.

But not today, Josephine.

So, Where Are We?

Other than the Bitcoin notes at the bottom of Coping, you mean?  Bitcoins should remain around $4,400 until they aren’t.

Wednesday, Thursday, and Friday we get employment data.

Some ISM and PMI data an hour into the session, but for now, Dow looking to open up 50.

Our consigliere is due to Uretopia ranch tomorrow afternoon.  With far too many things to cover in a short visit, we will have very basic columns tomorrow through Friday.  Peoplenomics this week will be mainly the charts and detailed outlooks.  Next Saturday, we will get to the detailed report on Knowledge Compression that I’ve been working on.  Been a really interesting adventure.

So, bean ’em up.  It’s time to hit and git.  Mor’on the Morrow!

32 thoughts on “The Take-Down of Public Gatherings?”

  1. Sad day.
    Watch. It will be blamed on Right Wing fascists.
    Again. Until it is later proved he had a left leaning political agenda.
    All too familiar. This won’t be the last.
    For me, this is the end of any public gathering of any kind.

  2. RE: S.Korean corporate diversification – If one looks strategically at the Korean peninsula, shipping lanes must pass through the Sea of Japan near N. Korea traveling to the east, the Yellow Sea and China to the west, and the East China Sea to the south. In the event of any ‘kinetic konflict’ with the North, or increased tension with China over maritime navigation rights anywhere near the Dragon’s lair, heavy trans-oceanic transport could be negatively impacted. It is therefore fiscally prudent for S. Korean companies to have an alternative production capability for the large American/Canadian market. The above, along with the advertised Trump corporate tax rate plan, start to make a U.S. production capability an extremely attractive hedge.

  3. Face Book is posting a notice from ANTIFA that the shooter is one of theirs. Also a recent convert to Islam. I wonder if this is true or not?

  4. I like to take my kids to the occasional Comic convention. It’s harmless fun and people have a good time. I’ve noticed getting inside the venue is like struggling through airport security now. This latest incident is going to mean less events as only the ones paying for intense security are going to be up and running and all else will have to settle for small settings and hope for the best. If they’re lucky. I also can see many artists –musicians, actors, any public interest person– will not be attending as many public events either. In short, the suppressive-type (think hard left or religious fruitcakes) will have won just a little bit as normal people simply will just forego fun stuff instead of dealing with intense security and those who would have put on a show will have to weigh the financial pros/cons. It’s definitely not going to be the same after this. Coincidence or not that this happened as the Puerto Rico official is feuding with Trump (and looking a bit like a dumb punk) AND the Catalan Referendum is in full swing? Interestingly timed events make even the most focused person have a “squirrel” moment.

  5. Nothing surprising about the shooting in Ariz. just another one added to a number and it will only get worse.This country has been going down the crapper ever since Reagan got elected with his cutting taxes on the top and adding them to the bottom,then the Bush Clinton duo with the NAFTA agreement creating little but low paying jobs here as the country was flooded with cheap labor and believe me this kind of incident will reach Washington and the lawmakers before its over…

  6. If you are old enough to recall the UT Tower shooter in 1967, who, arguably, started the mass shootings trend, recall he was an Eagle Scout with a brain tumor. I was 10 years old and inner in a building. My uncle and other cops went on roofs with deer rifles and inner the shooter down, aided by dozens of citizen marksmen. The guy next door to my grandparents, the senior newsreader at LBJ’s tv station, read the name of his grandson as one of the slain he retired after that day.

    Point is, these things are life affecting, yet life goes on. How many people do you know who died in vehicle accidents? Does that make you stop using vehicles?

    More people were killed in car accidents yesterday than in Las Vegas. That happens every day, so it’s not news. But we still travel. More people are murdered in Chicago annually than all the mass shootings put together. Yet Chicago Is still

    • It could have been (staged?) to promote GUN-CONTROL in the US of A. History has proved certain incidents happen at different times.

      • Staged? Staged implies ‘a play’ ‘a farce’ – People DIED, friend . . . question is, “Where the hell did he get all those guns?”

        And you just don’t go down to your local store and buy automatic weapons. Either someone sold them to the guy or he adapted them from legally purchased guns (which would mean that he had machinist skills. Have no idea whether he had such training, most people don’t.)

        Having a father who was on the FBI’s most wanted list is ‘interesting’ but possibly a red herring. He was only seven years old when his father robbed the bank originally.

      • Agreed, in Ukraine, organized murderers killed both police and citizens; Called the Orange Revolution. I have been waiting for this FIRST event to happen in the USA.

      • How difficult would it be to:
        Kill someone who is to be the gun man, put his body in place, shoot from the place and then scarper. After all, how did the person assemble such an arsenal unnoticed? In summary, a false flag.

    • I agree. But, I have already heard the usual suspects blame Trump for no gun control. And so it begins.

  7. George, I find your economic insights always interesting, and sometimes helpful. An interesting parallel you drew today between yourself and Stockman, and am wondering if you are on cusp of a major philosophical breakthrough such that perhaps you are adopting a new core economic approach? Tell us more. Best. Mike.

    • It is all pretty well detailed on the Peoplenomics site. Basically, the long wave (and the world cindering war of 2024) are still “on.” It’s that I have learned better how to integrate the short-term picture with the longer term. Confused? We are still going to hell, with occasional stops at the Dairy Queen for a malt. Today is a malt day for markets.

      • George:
        Is that a malt-up or a malt-down today?
        Most folks don’t look at the direction much any more they just like it “shake”en up.
        I’m the only one that orders a malt anymore.
        Meanwhile the market looks like it is shaking off the mess out west in NV.
        I am an old timer and like my Chocolate malt myself.

  8. “As Nigel Warburton sagely notes in the article “The so-called Information Age is too often a Misinformation Age.” Amen and give me a hallelujah.”

    Hallelujah! Mainly for being on the honest side. The media is partly to blame for sowing the seeds for so called bad events in our time. (Just study the last 100 years–it says it all, for those that think, and want to understand).

  9. I wonder if it will be shown that the perp was on prescription antidepressants like so many of the previous shooters. Sigh.

    I have a serious objection to the MSM referring to such people as “lone wolf” shooters. Wolves have courage and honor. “Lone cockroach” seems a far more accurate descriptor, and like cockroaches, there is no such thing as just one.

  10. maybe not the take down of public events but rather the take down of gun rights of any kind; as all I hear is women on the talk radio circuit crying for more laws to eliminate guns — seems that would be exactly what Big Brother would want. Makes it a lot easier to round’em up and move’em out to the FEMA (aka ‘death’) camps. Between 9-11 and this — I hate to see what’s coming around the corner. No wonder so many things in this country remind me of Nazi Germany! If you really get into it — it could scare one more than a Steven King novel! Good luck to all those smart enough to take care of themselves and help others whenever they can and pray we can stifle all those that think that Big Brother can protect them.

    • I heard in Oregon, there’s a new law that begins on Jan 1, that allows the police to take a persons guns if they’ve been reported as making threats or any reason that they authorities believe the gun owner might be triggered to retaliate. Many believe the first case will be tested all the way to the SCOTUSA. I only heard part of this news story, but this is what I recall.

  11. I’m not concerned with Las Vegas news right now. No one actually knows any particulars at this point (1200hrs Vegas time) and the media is full of hotbutton catchphrases, speculation, and calls for more gun control (how many more laws can be placed on people who, by definition, break laws?) I’ll wait until actual information surfaces, then try to ferret it out of the accompanying HUGE MASS of misinformation and disinformation which always surfaces first in such incidents, before the real info disappears below the noise floor.

    I liken the Catalonia situ to, say, a Texas secession desire which progresses to an actual movement, and thence to a referendum vote on actual independence. How would Texans handle Federal authorities, telling them their referendum was illegal, then sending Federal troops to Texas to ensure, by any means necessary, that Citizens could not get to the ballot box? I have no dog, no fight, and Catalonia is one of few places I could not point out on a map without reading the notation but, ‘just seems to me there’s a lot of hanky tish going on in da peninsula…

    If you buy a Hyundai or Kia, it’ll be made in USA, using more American-sourced parts than virtually any other mass-produced vehicle except Ford Trucks (for a couple more years) and most (but not all) military vehicles. Regional factories make sense in most industries. IMO it makes less sense for Samsung and Goldstar (LG) to build here, so these might be a “self-preservation” indicator…

  12. While the event in LV merely reinforces what I’ve expressed here not long ago about what our cities have become it would be a good time to revisit the video from British television based on Derren Brown’s hypnotic skill – The conspiracy theory regarding Sirhan-Sirhan and how his story relates to recent mass shootings is certainly a way to move the masses’ opinion and votes. That being said, though, given Paddock’s dad’s psychopathic background the apple evidently doesn’t fall far from the tree. Something tripped his latch, though, so we stay tuned.

    The Fox News video with Pat Brosnan is among the most accurate takes on this event up to this point – “This was probably unpreventable.” If America’s public life turns into something like Israel’s where on and off duty police and military walk the streets with an open-carry pistol or M4 in major metro areas I, personally, see it as a natural progression down the road of a world-wide “captive mouse colony” experiment.

    It’s an interesting time to be alive. Hope all on this site stay that way. Meanwhile I’ll be out in the middle of the pasture … alone … till deer season.

      • Yes , there is an organization and they hired two to three people and they gave him over a million bucks to do what they did .
        Would you do what this dead for a man box this is how some people live there called assassins there’s over 100000 of them but they’re starting the learned that the people that work for don’t have the money anymore know the worst of money its not worth anything so they look for a new Warren.

        So if the people of the world wanted to change the world all we have to do is use the internet right.

        so if the people at the top of the pyramid have 100000 assassins that are ready to go assassinate anybody because (they the assassins have such high wages on standby ,what would happen if.
        Each country put out a bounty except it’s like a Kickstarter program two get rid of the most evil people on this planet let’s just say for instance that an order for us to get rid of the evil we will have to use evil right fire with fire so everyone gets on a Kickstarter program and they donate $1 let’s say you get a billion people well now we got you know that will override the powers-that-be because they’re going broke anyway and plus the Assassins would really like to get back at them anyway because they know that at any moment if they say or do the wrong thing the powers-that-be will send an assassin to assassinate the assassins so we have a reversal in This World War II policy of kill and be killed and who pays for the killing us as a society as a group as a as of togetherness Corporation or a coop I could put it as a co-op word co-opting together to get rid of the evil Corporation

      • Did you see how they the police department of Las Vegas they sit there and talk and talk and talk cuz I had the volume off I don’t want to hear what they say because we know they’re not doing anything a picture’s worth a thousand words and I don’t have any pictures all they have is talk talk and talk and talk is nothing but incompetence showing pictures videos Israel up to a point person our in electronic gauge for we can make things appear before your eyes and you swear it was real

    • Even better as you can listen to many different scanners and official channels is a website called Broadcastify – the U.S.A. and some foreign. It’s free . . .

  13. I ‘d tell you what to do with your money or everything and anything else but I’m in a very very stupid mode and I can’t even tell you where the commode is so I hope you hit your target..
    Because if the Fed was reimbursed .redone for the next 3 months then that defers the November 6th crash that I predict

    So anything and everything is going to be stampeding so anything and everything is going to be Stampede another words it’s going to go away up and way down or way down and wake up I guess it depends on which stock you have but it’s going to be very volatile the next 30 days.
    Then after that for a while I’m not sure how long but it just going to go like neutral everything’s going to go neutral it ain’t going to do anything speak of so.
    So for those of you of the middle class I’d be looking for ways to get around the penalties cuz there’s going to be a whole bunch of penalties coming up and you need to become more aware of those penalties so you don’t have to suffer.
    so you have to take a plea, so that things won’t come against you ,because things are changing very fast and if you’re on that bad,
    Then go ahead and take a plea and merger.
    Just remember the great-hearted and courageous people. that are putting forth a lot of effort at this time to correct the things that are going bad, that are trying to counteract the powers that were in there last moments of defeat.
    remember at the top of the pyramid even if you were able to take down the top of the pyramid which would is two more and under that is three more

  14. Foreign businesses build USA factories for two reasons. Cheap labor and government support in suppression of workers rights. Walmart.

    Both Chinese and Korean workers have more buying power than the average USA worker.

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