Coping: With Future Seers and Predictors

A dear friend of mine sent an article this weekend that began “Flash!  Califortnia Earthquake.”

When I clicked the link *(this is a person I can trust with my life, so the click was safe) up pops a site that talks in generalities about an upcoming Cali quake and then wraps it up in Biblical “stuff.”

That got me to thinking about how anyone can get into the prediction business.  You see, this is a world of segmentation and monetization.

(Continues below)

 

Here’s part of what I sent my pal:

“With all due respect, this smacks of another charlatan.

Here’s my take on this “prediction.”

1.  See the story in the L.A. Times  on Sept 19 here: http://www.latimes.com/local/lanow/la-me-ln-california-mexico-earthquake-20170908-htmlstory.html

2.  Now, notice the date on the “prophet’s” prediction – which by the site time made on Sept 29.

I would suggest that THE REAL END TIMES data from all this is the prediction that when the real End gets here, the world will be full of prevaricators and deceivers.  Sure enough, it seems to be.

 

I applied rigorous  statistics (and a very broad news-eating software program (Nostracodeus) that I helped write the algos for) and lot and behold, turns out most of the “seers” are just clever wordsmiths with a neat monetization plan.

You see, old friend, as I have done in my new non-fiction book, there is a time for rigor – and we live in such times.

Count the number of predictions a person makes and write that down.

On another piece of paper make random predictions about events.

We also need to be highly precise in time frames.  As I explained to someone else, recently:  If you predict a “major earthquake” and give yourself 2-weeks of “play” either side of a month-long window, you’re now up to 8.2 week’s worth of window.  With 5 to 10 quakes 7.0 or larger per year anyway – without the “predictors” when with only 6.3 period per year to worry about, in a “quiet year” with 6 quake your odds of being “right” are in the vicinity of >50%.

Since we both have masters degrees and know stats, it’s really clear how this can give the illusion of prediction.  Which is why our emphasis is on predicting stock market trends at the macro level.

As you know, there is a lot of rigor to our approach.  While the general public is (far too) easily BS’ed, The Bank is less so and rigorous to the penny.

This is not to say this person is NOT  a prophet of God.  Far from it.  But, when their prediction comes out a week after a writ-large in the L.A. Times, you know….it sets of statistically-based skepticism.

We improve on  this considerably by reading news with an eye towards future indicators words.  Example words are things like “will”  “planning” “may”  “Respond” “forecast” and “warn” are just a few.

Each of these has an implied future action associated with it.

Now, once you have this, you simply run Nostracodeus against a custom-built website that includes massive RSS (real simple syndication) scans and is constantly updated (my website at www.computationalfuture.com does this) and then follow those stories/headlines for a few weeks which have future-implicates within them.  This gives us a “clean site” with no ad content on which makes testing Nosty very clean.

I appreciate the note, not wanting us to be taken by surprise, but the grumpy old George worries that people outside of SoCal who don’t machine-read the L.A. times daily and look at the word frequencies for “quake, shake, temblor, shift, ground, etc.)  will think this an original prediction.  It is, if you don’t read the LAT.”

I could have gone into a lot more depth.  For example, the article quotes a late “prophet” who said a major quake was coming to the US “soon” and this was in 2013. – that’s when the embedded video was posted to YT.

Again, we come back to the techniques of “future tellers” which in today’s media world are the knock-on viral version of “fortune tellers.”

Similarly, the story quotes what sounds like an Indian “prophet” who went on a several-days long warning spree in 2015.

Don’t get me wrong:  People like to know the future.  And around here we work very, very hard at it using software methods enhancing on approaches marked “unclassified” at the top.  We just don’t go out on limbs making fools of ourselves; at least very often.

There is a consumer protection angle to this:  Sure, we all want to know the future but it does, in fact, change directions on  an almost daily basis because of systemic complexity.   Sadly, a “systemic change” can be sold to the gullible as something other than a “failed prediction.”

So, when you read a prediction, do yourself a HUGE favot.

  1.  Find the last 100 predictions the source has made, including the failures.  See if they are meaningfully different than chance.
  2. Be very wary of generalizations that are not considerably better than chance.  See the Earthquake notion.  Seriously:  We could have an 8.2 quake in the South Pacific and I’m sure some deceiver would ascribe it as “That quake that was going to destroy California but which moved to Vanuatu (or wherever) because of our work and your prayers….hallelujah!”  And the money pours in.
  3. Look for the revenue angle. If the view of the future is not generating enough personal income/savings to personally enrich yourself, give it another look.  I do this with Peoplenomics outlooks.  We do get market trends above average and our readers do just fine.
  4. Be aware that people will tell you what you want to hear.  If you are THINKING about Bitcoin, then some futuring site I’m sure will tell you it’s going to a zillion.

Could Bitcoin go higher?  Sure:  Might be in a trend channel like this:

But, until it sets a new high (above the $4,900 level) we would be skeptical because there is also a way to draw trend channels and do Elliott counts is that very, very bearish:

This view hold that until the old high is beaten, what has gone on has been the all-time high, an A down, B up, and we are biding our time with a cold branch water waiting for C down to show up.

This is not to make a prediction that this WILL happen.  But I can tell you with 100% certainty that whatever happens with Bitcoins, it will happen without us participating.

At all times, history teaches us that people tend to believe in whatever will make them the most personal profit.

Doesn’t need to be objectively true.  They just need to believe because they are weak, don’t have their own experience base, or someone has convinced that they are the dumbest personal in the room, not the smartest.

As luck would have it, when I’m in the room, you are the smarter of the two of us, plus of minus two standard deviations!

In other words, if people are adrenalin junkies and BTC’s offer a good “hit” – enjoy.

We take our pleasures a little differently now.

Off to size up markets and look for reality.  Remember that stuff?  The currency of banks, houses, cars, and food?

Write when you see the future better than  chance…

George@ure.net

Comments

Coping: With Future Seers and Predictors — 11 Comments

  1. George,

    The desire — the need — to Know What’s Coming is extremely deep in the human
    brain-wiring, determined by thousands of generations of Darwinism selecting in favor
    of those who could Know What’s Coming — even if that knowledge was only slightly
    more reliable than random. The smart caveman got to pass his genes on. The dumber
    one became sabre-tooth tiger lunches.

    Assuming for a moment, and only for the sake of debate, that Universe has some
    Greater-That-Four-Space-Prime-Mover-Mind “in charge” of making all things, then
    it is not unreasonable to consider that “plane” of existance has different rules than the
    mundane one we experience. “Super-Space?” “Hyper-Space?” “All the other dimensions
    of the eleven-dimension Current Model?” Beyond my pay grade.

    But!

    That Great Mind could have very easily invested some bit of “consciousness” in other,
    lesser beings. Could it be that human consciousness resides partly in these four munane
    dimensions — and also partly in some of the others we can’t sense, and can’t even imagine?
    Carl Yung’s Collective Unconscious? Akashic Records? Again, past my rank in
    Woo-Woo-ism.

    We’re not very smart, so we only halfway even perceive the connection, and aren’t
    very good at all in “working” it beneficially — BUT, some either residual or nascent
    ability, however poorly understood and accessed, DOES tantalize us to Know What’s
    Coming.

    This fundamental desire, born around a milliion stone-age campfires, gave rise to the
    Storyteller and the Medicine Man. (Also, to the lying, thieving politician — but that’s
    another disquisition…)

    We’re bred to The Hunger To Know, and dimly aware that The Ability Exists, and
    we just might learn how to work it.

    Hollywood, the news media, the fortune-tellers, are thus all neatly explained. Our
    Need To Know is what has kept us alive — literally.

    Some are pure frauds, some have a little poorly discplined ability, and some may
    actually be Not Too Bad at it. (Edgar Cayce is difficult to casually dismiss, for one
    example.)

    Radio Ranch
    North Carolina

  2. Dear Mr. Ure,

    Belated anniversary greetings upon the Bank of England’s 20 year milestone of authority over monetary policy. We were not invited to the Threadneedle Street shindig last Thursday and Friday, and Clark Kent appears to have been rendered mute. However, the IMF’s Lagarde added a few pinches of “cryptonite” into the brew of her crystal ball future forecast while speaking to rarefied company. Her remarks follow for subsequent digestion by common marks throughout the do minions. https://www.imf.org/en/News/Articles/2017/09/28/sp092917-central-banking-and-fintech-a-brave-new-world

  3. I think there are really people out there like Nostradamus that are sensitive to the frequencies of time and space.. I believe that at any one time.. the past the present and the future exist at the same time in the same space.. so why can’t other universes exist in the same space.. take television.. does a television signal travel forever in outer space.. we get signals from the clarke belt and all channels are in our grasp at any one time .. Now can the future be the same way.. we store memories on a disk or a chip made out of silicone crystal sand.. pick up a rock and move it around the world and then diagnose exactly where that rock came from by its magnetic properties..why can’t the future be the same thing.
    Just thinking out loud here

  4. George,
    Also, from the cheap seats, you personally got me started in Bitcoin (at $20 each) in 2015. I have 20Kh of Solar. To use excess Solar Power, I put Antminer S7 BTC Miners in my cellar and garage. Made $40 a day and the 1200 watts heated my cellar to 80 F all winter in NH. Bitcoin has gone up 40 times since then, but I make about the same daily money with S9’s. The point? Clif High really HAS predicted the future….in Bitcoin. His January Alta Report prompted me to borrow $25K, buying 24 BTC at $700 each to lend to the Hashnest PACMIC V5 and to buy a Green Monster Box. His silver prediction has done nothing, but his BTC prediction was tomorrow’s newspaper today. He NAILED it! I paid back my entire $25 K loan by June, Hashnest had to pay me back in BTC! Easily a triple. It may be that Bitcoin is telling us something about the future and silver would if it could.

  5. I see what I SEE. I don’t always say what I see. I don’t charge a dime. I have never used it to make a profit as of yet.

    Yes, I know George you told me to start my own blog. I really like driving a dump truck. And u have no desire to be a cult leader.

    I have used my skills in a few skirts and Well I sold cars in my 20’s and I sold a ton of cars. So I guess I have used it to make money.

    I am not sure what my accuracy rate is. But i wouldn’t bet against me. ;) God knows. Lol

    Keep up the good work old dude! Thanks for keeping the lights on.

      • Make a few predictions, if ure inclined to. Us folks in the cheap seats would enjoy it…

      • I will think about it. (Chuckle)

        Last week I worked 74 hours at my day job. Sunday I moved 2 loads from storage into my new house. And then I went to the local dive bar and watched the Seahawks game.

        Oh there was a brunette Friday night and a blonde on Saturday night.

        Ohhh and I went to the casino on Friday with the brunnette and won 2 jack pots. One for $3600 and one for $1900. She spent the night. Ha ha ha ha

        Both very attractive and both spent the night.

        I already told you about the hurricane, the west coast earth quake, the preliminary data on a false flag attack. Whalah! And I got it wrong on the location.

        S-ure I didn’t give ya the dates like an earthquake of 8.2 tomorrow in say.. the home of rice a roni.

        But i gave the heads up that they were coming. It’s one thing to hit the bulls eye and its another to atleast hit the dart board.

        I’m too damn busy George. You know I can be very accurate.

        And I told you the bottom wasn’t in with the stocks. Dow was up 150 points today. Onward and up word. No collapse till 2019.

        Hmmmmmm… I will give it a think. Got a dentist appointment tomorrow. Ahhh a day off. ;)

  6. Fascinating stuff – I connect this with the remote viewing team @ Farsight Institute. They made a series of ‘predictions,’ AKA prophecies, using accomplished remote viewers (come CIA trained) that had to do with a ‘coastal flooding’ meme. This ‘viewing’ never happened in the forecast timeframe, so Courney Brown, founder of Farsight, theorized the team was actually viewing events in an ‘alternate universes.’ Was this a cope out excuse? Perhaps. But anyone who follows cosmology knows there is a following (e.g. Max Tegmark) which finds a connection between astrophysics and quantum theory, theorizing a ‘many worlds’ view of existence, in which we have countless universes superimposed upon each other throughout hyper-dimensional space-time. Some universes closely follow events transpiring in our universe, others . . . not so much. Courtney Brown embraced this theory as one possible cause for Farsight’s remote viewing exercises being off their mark. Until CERN or some other future facility unlocks the truth or fiction with regard to alternate universes, we have to rely upon our own senses, experiences and dreams in this reality. As for the dreams, are they of this reality or . . . ???

    • I had many dreams prior to having read anything on the coastal event mentioned above. They progressed over the span of ten years, from the water is coming to after the flood. I’ve never heard a good explanation of why, or anything that really indicates a possibility of it happening.

      The only thing that I came up with is it being an echo of what occurred during the times of Atlantis.