Rumors of War, Trolling Journos, Personal AI Optimization

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Market futures were down following yesterday’s rally at an unusual time.  In our Aggregate markets view, the Tech sector had continued to lag and could not reach a “necessary kiss” at overhead resistance.

When we look at our Aggregate Index (an index of indices of U.S. markets), we are just now “walking resistance higher”.  In a slower market, this would have been a region where a decisive break higher could have been predicted.  But problematically, the blow-off we are in is moving so damn fast, it may be pricing a move to the “top of trend channel” out of reach.

With even a modest pullback today, we are at risk of dropping under that (yellow, upper right) trend channel bottom.  That’s how these “kiss of trend” things seem to work.

The Ebbinghaus Gap

Please forgive me if I drop into “Peoplenomics mode” in here.  But, as you know, I recently evolved two “new things” which are very interesting mathematical views of markets.

The first is what I call the Ebbinghaus-Ure Correlation.  Which hints that due to human memory effect, past market action (up, or down) “wears off” over time.  As this happens, lessons from past losses and gains come to hold less sway (less inhibiting of price-action) over time.

Let me walk you through it.

Let’s take a test case (NASDAQ composite from September ) and zoom in on the “retracement to lower trend.”

In the circle on the right, we still haven’t gone fully to trend resistance, and so our present morning expectation is split: The techs really need to hit the overhead trend line, BUT it is not “necessary.”

And that’s because we have an “Ebbinghaus-Ure Gap” in play.  Here’s how it looks:

The red arrow on the right is the mystery of the moment.  Because there is an “Ebbinghaus Gap” in the data.

What it is, and what it means:

In a nutshell, each of those lines above is a successively-longer time based price of a moving average.  At the very top line in the series is either present close (or Futures price open) and you’ll notice that it hooks down at the open.

It’s axiomatic that in all Major Declines, the Current price drops under the 2-day.  As a decline speeds-up, the 2 crosses under the 3-day average, and so forth.

What’s really striking in the Ebbinghaus-Ure view today is that we have a gap, beginning with, oh, 7-9 day averages.  Long ago, I started “clustering” markets into “fast Bulls and slow Bulls” (with Bear-side equivalents).

I will lay out what “the Ebbinghaus gap” might mean in more detail on the Peoplenomics side tomorrow.  But for now, it’s worth noticing that the “early adopters” of a price trend have clustered and are moving up. And in the next week, or three, we will get a more complete view of the implications for longer-term investments.

Rumors of War

We put little to no weight in stories like this – which popped on X overnight:  on X: “@defense_civil25 It is now midnight in Moscow, a very important meeting in the Kremlin between Putin, the Russian Security Council, and the commander of the Axis armies and the allies. Things are hot. There is news saying that Trump wants an escalation against Russia and…

Still,  we find this an interesting bit of (refer to Clif’s discussion of the qualia) how “News appears to hint at future.” But it also has a second function.  It serves to moderate the change state.  In other words, the slow-rollers in markets will seize on things like the X post above and use it to continue justifying their not joining the rally that the “fast Bulls” are on – which, as we see in the traces of differential moving averages are very much going through what we can think of as “Break Point Trump.”

Disclosures

Who killed Kennedy?  We should know shortly.  And we should know about government hands related to the MLK assassination and a lot more. As…

“PROVIDING AMERICANS THE TRUTH AFTER SIX DECADES OF SECRECY: Today, President Donald J. Trump signed an Executive Order entitled Declassification of Records Concerning the Assassinations of President John F. Kennedy, Senator Robert F. Kennedy, and the Reverend Doctor Martin Luther King Jr.

The Executive Order establishes the policy that, more than 50 years after these assassinations, the victims’ families and the American people deserve the truth.
Specifically, the Order directs the Director of National Intelligence and other appropriate officials to:
(1) Present a plan within 15 days for the full and complete release of all John F. Kennedy assassination records; and
(2) Immediately review the records relating to the Robert F. Kennedy and Martin Luther King Jr. assassinations and present a plan for their full and complete release within 45 days.”

Still, until all the docs and facts are on the table, pardon us for being skeptical.  Which has been the correct assessment for over half a century.  Deep State hates their dirty laundry coming out.  Will Trump’s action trigger false flags to deflect?  We don’t trust nothing.

Rolling Up Trump Hate

Trump Hate is ramping up. (Again, refer to the E/U Gap discussion above);  The left biased NY Magazine is a fine example: Trump’s War on DEI Opens the Door to Jim Crow’s Return.

Let’s go for an airplane ride, to make a point.

It’s about 5:30 in the afternoon and all day, heavy thunderstorms have been lighting up over Florida as northern air collides with the Caribbean heat.  There’s lightning, people are reaching for the barf bags and the turbulence is horrific.  One passenger already suffered a broken arm.  The tower just advised to slow up the approach for landing until a microburst moves off the runway centerline.  You begin to feel sick.

Now: Who do you want at the controls of the aircraft with 192 souls on short final in a violent storm?

A. A DEI hire whose simulator results were awful.

B. The pilot who (regardless of race or gender) was the absolute highest competence pilot ever to take a check-ride.

If you picked “A” I think you’re an idiot.  If you picked “B” then you may have a future.

The left-leaning media throws around spurious emo-words “Jim Crow” and the like, but we hold firmly to the idea that in fire, police, medicine, and air transport (just to name a few) there is only ONE standard consisting of Competence and Excellence.

America (liberal bent) education is a big part of the problem:

“As of now, the United States education ranking is in the 13th place with a score of 0.883, trailing behind countries like Germany (2nd) and New Zealand (3rd). In the QS World University Rankings 2023, 11 out of the top 20 universities are American, including prestigious institutions like MIT, Stanford, and Harvard.”

Trump Hate, II

Another issue – which has the left going nuts – is this whole “anchor baby” deal.   A (Seattle) federal judge has issued a 14-day TRO (temporary restraining order) barring the “anchor baby” Executive Order.

For those who understand that Trump is a negotiator – and he will always start higher than expected – we think it’s clear.  He’s starting at “anchor babies” in general, but the real goal is illegal entrant’s giving birth here.  That’s a reasonable “negotiating line” but the differences and anger?  Wow…hard to comprehend the level of hate behind it.

Still, the liberals are running hard – with heart-string stories like Undocumented Women Fear for Unborn Children After Trump’s Birthright Citizenship Order. Trump’s point: Get legal to get citizenship.  I know, too simple to comprehend, especially with liberal earplugs in.  Undocumented people have no business in America…that’s law.  Anyone who claims otherwise is a revolutionary bent on street ignorance to overthrow the rule of law.

The problem?

Not a crime per se:
Being undocumented alone does not constitute a criminal offense.
Illegal entry is a crime:
Entering the US without authorization at a port of entry is considered a criminal offense.

The liberal’s can’t wrap their heads around the “well, how did they get here?” part while (rather stupidly) remaining wholly focused on the first part.  Which – we suppose – proves liberals cannot hold two nuanced ideas in mind at the same time without going into fits of litigation and street violence.

Political win: Mexican Military Dismantles 2025’s First Migrant Caravan: Trump’s Leadership Inspires Tough Action on Illegal Immigration. While here in resurgent America Border Czar Tom Homan confirms, “We’ve arrested 1300 people, over a thousand of them are criminals.”  The Obama-Biden insurrection is ending…

And Texas wants to be compensated: Texas asks for $11B border security reimbursement.

Trolling the Headlines

Ukraine has crossed another line: Zelensky’s Videos Breach Geneva Conventions-Human Rights Watch. Trump, or no Trump, Putin’s going to over-react one of these days…

Taiwan is beefng up homeland defenses: Military to increase troops in greater Taipei .

Move over Leaning Tower of Pisa: Building in Taipei evacuated after structure begins to tilt. Not sure of the politics of this – the buildings leaned to the left…

Still, there’s sign of rational life returning to the news flow: Government by Hysteria: The Climate and Covid Hobgoblins Begin to Fade – Watts Up With That?

At the Ranch: Ham Radio Weekend

Our “ShopTalk” Sunday article will deal with “The Radio Detective” this weekend. As I roll through some tube type radio repairs.

This is also ham radio’s Winter Field Day weekend, too.  More details at Home – WFDA.  If you have a home receiver, you can pick up some of the activity here:

SSB Voice transmissions will be sent at 18:00 UTC (10 am PST) on
January 25th and again at 00:00 UTC on January 26th (4 pm PST January
25th) on
40M at 7.29
20M at 14.29
15M at 21.39
10M at 28.59

Also this weekend around here, weather should be warm enough to move forward with the Big Antenna Project.  But, with 2-inches of rain and some lightning due next week, I have no plans to “go Benjamin” with the project… I ain’t Lyden…

Staying Warm?

One of my winter health experiments is drawing to a close.  Usually, I don’t wear an undershirt, or a second shirt over the first one.  But this winter, I conducted a personal test to see if running a warmer body temp (with more clothing) would reduce the tendency of fat to show up in unwanted places (everywhere!)

After a couple of weeks without measuring, I got back on the scale this week only to discover that I’d put on five pounds.  Which isn’t a lot, but it is too much.  So two pseudo-science conclusions from this bit of personal research:

  • Wearing a single shirt (and no tee under) does lead to more calorie burning. You get cold as hell, though.
  • On the other hand, adding the tee (or an overshirt) makes life a lot more comfortable.
  • And – adding homemade apple turnovers to the diet does not reduce fat accumulations. (damn!)

Back in  the “under 50 grams carbs per a day” keto and that may last well paSt my birthday next month.

And let me toss in two useful new papers on Keto over on PubMed today for your reading list:

Off to breakfast while I hallucinate over toast with strawberry jam and hot cocoa with a shot of peppermint schnapps in it.  Once upon a time when younger, huh?

Write when you get rich,

George@Ure.net

21 thoughts on “Rumors of War, Trolling Journos, Personal AI Optimization”

  1. “Off to breakfast while I hallucinate over toast with strawberry jam and hot cocoa with a shot of peppermint schnapps in it.”

    Hmmmm, mind if I dunk..my Cinnamon Roll ?

    # 3 used to take part in a shot of Bourbon in his morning Libation, prior to mounting up his steed for Riding& Reviewing the Crops/Fields, everyday. Not only educated his Slaves, even married one. That is Progressive President, no?

    Learned a new Word meaning today from Ures prose…Self Evident = Axiomatic. Wasnt sure, had to look it up..now the Sun is peaking out from behind rain clouds, panels waking up, learned new word this AM – gonna be a good Day G..cause Im gonna make it a good day!

    Fight, Fight, FightOn – https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=b2fgW8LdGi4&pp=ygUiZmlnaHQgZm9yIHlvdXIgcmlnaHQgdG8gcGFydHkgbGl2ZQ%3D%3D

    Reply

    • re: Trolling the Three Muses
      feat: The Black Nobility

      BCN,
      Do you take your hot coffee and marshmallows shaken or stirred? As you may be aware, the three blond muses, cousins to the heir to the throne – lately of their mother’s Capetown retreat – returned recently to London high society. Lady Kitty along with her two younger twin siblings advise journos that they lodge at Althorp with their father, the 10th Viscount, a former brother-in-law to the King.

      Before going off on ardent tangent it must be said: Ms. Kitty became happily married in 2021 to her 65+ year old Anglo-South African love at Villa Aldobrandini, Frascati overlooking the Rome valley. The town’s church highlights its Saints Sebastian and Roch, patron saints of plagues.

      Construction of Villa Aldobrandini began late in the 16th century by Cardinal Pietro Aldobrandini, a nephew of Pope Clement VIII. (The latter allegedly blessed the coffee bean making its drink acceptable to imbibe by the faithful.) The House of Aldobrandini continues to own the property. The garden wall is still lacking statuary purchased but not paid by Napoleon. Around the same time the ‘Aldobrandini Wedding’ fresco made its way from the Aldobrandini family to the Vatican Museum. The fresco dating to the 1st century bc had been found near the Arch of Gallienus who was Roman Emperor during the Crisis of the Third Century. It is speculated that the Three Muses pictured as minor characters in the fresco are conducting a rite for “auspicious good fortune”.

      The House of Aldobrandini remains a member of the Black Nobility. The Black Nobles’ entitlement to Vatican City license plates ceased upon the publication in 1968 of “Pontificalis Domus” (The Papal Household) by Pope Paul VI.

      Reply

  2. Here in S. Indiana, temps have pretty much stayed around 20 or less, for the last two weeks. I typically layer up clothing anyways, but no matter what I’ve put on, nothing could take that chill away from “feels like -25 degrees”. I’ve even seen the Siamese, Efrijim, shiver a lot. I’ve put on a lot of weight myself. The good news is that I’ll continue to layer up in spring/summer and it’ll fuel me to sweat more and maybe drop some of that winter pack. My disabled husband was prescribed ozempic (it has other uses beyond weight management) and dropped 35 pounds. I just can’t bring myself to jump on that bandwagon. There’s a downside to this and I don’t want to know it. No, there is much outside work needing done when temps are bearable again. I’ll just do this the old fashioned way and he productive. Speaking of productivity, it’s nearly time to figure out how this year’s garden will go. I went all in a huge chunk of garden space for limas last year, and the growing season wasn’t nearly long enough. So, limas are out, and more bell peppers this time!

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  3. We’ll see what happens with JFK et al files. Frankly, I was shocked that Trump really did it. Last week I was in Dallas and made my first ever visit to Dealey Plaza. Interesting timing, eh? Synchronicities abound. If you’ve ever been there and you have a sensitive enough ‘antenna’ you might be able to attest that the whole area has a very, very strange energy. It almost feels like some type of hallowed ground. The real kind where the air is literally charged with…something.

    Now on to the death of DIE. I can also attest that the federal agencies (plural) with whom I have active email accounts are sending out the cease and desist to all of their DIE departments and for those people who work in those departments to contact HR, immediately.

    Some agencies have the BIG SAD right now. Not as much as the few days after the election, though. It was quite entertaining sitting in on conference calls where they were offering emotional support to the employees who were feeling distraught. I even took some video of a couple of these calls for my own personal enjoyment.

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  4. “PRESIDENT TRUMP IS ENDING THE ENDLESS DELAYS: In his first term, President Trump ordered agencies to move toward disclosing more information about the John F. Kennedy assassination, and now he is ordering that the work be completed.”
    https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefings-statements/2025/01/fact-sheet-president-donald-j-trump-orders-declassification-of-jfk-rfk-and-mlk-assassination-files/

    well I saw this and and looked this up on the Q site,,, endless
    “4961
    Nov 08, 2022 11:01:48 PM EST
    Q !!Hs1Jq13jV6 ID: 000000 No. 17734020
    ENDLESS lies.
    ENDLESS wars.
    ENDLESS inflation.
    ENDLESS ‘printing’.
    ENDLESS oppression.
    ENDLESS subjugation.
    ENDLESS surveillance.
    Who will put an end to the ENDLESS?
    Taking control.
    Q”
    https://qalerts.app/?q=endless

    ya know,,, just odd coincidences,,, I do not know, just watching the movie, I listen to all sorts of stuff, Clif, Stu’s Nosty predictions, farsight, the Bible, even ole HG Wells and George Orwell
    but no one else posts the Q stuff and I am tarded enough to not care so much about other opinions and brave or fool enough to link it as part of the overall view

    the colored mkt lines of convergent and divergent looks like biorhythms, I wonder what birth time to use.

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  5. When I add fruit to my mostly carnivore diet I become unquenchably hungry. I can eat an Aldi’s Moser Roth 85 % cacoa small candy bar with a small amount of sugar with little difference. If I add any flour carb that will also increase my appetite but not as much as fruit. So far the only carb I can eat without a large increase in appetite is sweet potatoes.

    I’m curious about what carbs people add successfully to a Keto diet.

    Reply

  6. couple of random hummm thoughts

    1) Silence on the USA Debt crisis since Trump got in … he mentions nothing, news mentions nothing ….. I assume for a reason … don’t look here, look over here at all my EO’s ….. I’m sure the new Treasury Sec, billionaire hedge fund guy, has it all worked out (fix is in) ………. hummmmmm

    2) Hearing Trump, Johnson and others, looks like its same ole politics in using bad events (California Fires) and thus massive printed Fed money to give to CA, as pressure(bribes) on Dems to get the Dems to vote for Trumps “big beautiful bill” …….. hummmmmm

    2) With the great Polar Vortex of 2025 ….. not a word (no news story) on how EV cars performed? or didn’t …… I assume for a reason …. hummmmmm

    With Stu winding down, per his recent post …. wish he’d stay active for a few months longer to see how the Trump card plays out in his work …… seems a good part of the story we are left hanging …… oh well … be safe all and good luck

    Reply

  7. Dude G,

    Remiss much ?

    How in darnation did you not mention Jen and Barry hotting up the airwaves ? Why is Michael-moo acting angered and SCORNED ? Barry switching back to hetero ? Seriously doubt that – GUESS Jen really WAS/IS a FAG HAG.

    Too much fun for just one person – had to share amongst this Mostly august community. Speaking of kinky sex.kinks and what not.

    Burning Question of the Year – If the clot shot was Safe and Effective why does foulchi need a pardon? Cause he is a selfish prick ?

    Suns out, Buns out – LFG!

    Reply

  8. Best weight loss diet ever, if it tastes good spit it out.

    Sad note. Diana took food out to the dogs and Recon yesterday then I heard her yelling for me. I went over and she said Recon the cat just walked up to her and laid across her feet. The first sign of something wrong was he allowed me to pick him up without hissing and clawing me. He never allowed any touching unless it was his idea, except for Diana. I gave in on the no cats inside rule and she set him up a bed and a cat box near the back mud room door. She also fixed him a cat box telling him that’s where he needed to go potty. He looked at us and said OK. A couple hours later I was on the other side of the property checking the cattle. Diana called me on the radio to come home. It looked like he just went to sleep and died. Diana is a wreck and I have to admit I’m going to miss him. Not many folks have a talking cat.

    Stay safe. 73

    Reply

    • Jim: sympathies to you and Diana. Our 21.25 YO Tom is on life 16 by now and every time he back-slides me and the Missus go round and round on what to do. I’d be pleased if he would just pass (though saying that may seem awful on my part). The time will come when someone (me) must put foot down. It’s wrong to let the “best cat ever” suffer. It’s bizarre to shovel twice as much out front, in severe cold, but the ole fella has a certain sage bush he likes to chew on when winter comes so, it makes me feel better to give him one pleasure. We become mighty attached to pets. OK, they are people in pet bodies but? Hang in, Egor

      Reply

    • On the evening of 9 August 2018, my wife died. 5 years later on the morning of 6 August, I buried our cat, Francine. I cried both times.

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  9. “Who killed Kennedy? We should know shortly. And we should know about government hands related to the MLK assassination and a lot more. Still, until all the docs and facts are on the table, pardon us for being skeptical. ”

    MARTIN ARMSTRONG: I will be stunned if they actually release the complete files and some plane doesn’t crash into the storage room as was the case with 911 and the promised investigation into all the missing money from the Pentagon. The plane that hit the Pentagon hit precisely that storage room, so no investigation ever took place.

    https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/international-news/democracy-crisis/trump-orders-jfk-files-released/

    Reply

  10. No one seems to ask, if it’s really asylum these migrants are looking for, why not settle in Mexico? It’s a great country (unless you watch USA movies, LOL). But they don’t, they want the USA. Free money, health care, etc. It’s not about asylum, it’s about getting the biggest bang for your buck.

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    • Thank you for reminding. And I would tell “Trute” and other liberal implants that when a Canadian can see it clear as day how come libs in America can’t?

      (brainwashed and guilt played – but ya’ll have fun.)

      Reply

  11. https://www.goodreads.com/book/show/43652.Double_Cross

    then look up the death bed confessions of those that claim to have been involved..This book is on my top ten scariest book list then go back to the biography..compare names and agencies.. on my scariest book must read lists..especially after the death bed confessions started coming that are all in the book.. audio book below
    https://youtu.be/35t4l7FBWk8?si=mjDMet8apIwrgBcy
    https://youtu.be/CdaP8uzSXXg?si=5Ng8iG-dsPXAYzOG

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  12. (“Ukraine has crossed another line: Zelensky’s Videos Breach Geneva Conventions-Human Rights Watch. Trump, or no Trump, Putin’s going to over-react one of these days…”)

    you know I asked chat gpt about ww3 it said November last year.. now reading the alois Irlmair predictions it says the year before the big event will be a good one for crops..The crops this year were great…
    https://clarissaschnabel.wordpress.com/2022/04/29/the-irlmaier-prophecies-part-6-the-kurier-text/

    Reply

  13. A lot was lost during the Biden administration… the USA weakened and vulnerable.. I see it as having gone over the tipping point.. time will tell

    Reply

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