Ebbinghaus-Ure Details

Can we learn something about markets from noticing how people “forget” things?  Over a hundred years ago, some basic research into human psychology laid some important groundwork.  Which we rip through, helped by our A.I. accomplice (research helper).

This is a neat bit of research because it points out one of the more promising branches of A.I. deployment. Namely, how humans can find a great deal of “tillable soil” by focusing less on silver bullet (singular) solutions (to all that ails us). Instead, we hope there’s much more to be “deep learned” from exploring interdisciplinary contexts and learning templates.

Also today, the ChartPack looks at how the Day After Biden worked out in markets. Not much grieving, by the look of it.  But the Ebbinghaus/Ure work has thrown off a very useful work product – a new way of looking at markets – in the ChartPack…

More for Subscribers ||| Master Index 2018 to Present ||| Master Index 2001 thru 2017 ||| Missing out? SUBSCRIBE NOW!!! |||

32 thoughts on “Ebbinghaus-Ure Details”

  1. Hmmm interesting graphs but so simple in their decline that I would like to see the same questions run with some odd ones in the mix in addition to Dow, etc. Like say “Correlate with decline of color green in New Hampshire white oak trees in Fall.”

    • What I was after in the graphics (and the Ebbinghaus effect) is that as I have stated in prevbious discussions of differential moving average crossings (the generalized case from MACD, if you will) that there is a :”regularity” to crossings and this is valuable guidance when calculations of how long to remain in a position are made…
      Except on alternating even months under full moons, on thursdays, of course…during years divisible by 3….

      • Well Done, Herr Ure…

        Ancient Mayans based everything on Prime Numbers, and only Prime numbers.

        Do We know WHY?

        Hmmmm

      • Snork. I have spent a lifetime seeking the secret sauce (moving avarages, gap-o-logy, Elliot, Gann, Fibonacci, Crawford [astro], etc. ad nauseum). and conclude: there isn’t one.

        That said it’s my belief the charts can speak to one, to every.one, and show the mass consciousness at work. It’s the universal real time (during mkt hours) display. It is …

        Every once in a while (on alternating even months under full moons, on thursdays) fundamentals can align with technicals and Shazam, we (Royal) got a direction.

        At the moment charts are blowing out while fundamentals, despite puffery by financial media, are awful. Animal vibe is strong. I see a lot of head.n.shoulders and potential 2x tops.

        The charts draw themselves and time will out. As always, watch the Bond market. It’s math. It makes sense :0)

        Oops. Not warm. Should have waited
        IcemanEgor

        • Alistair Maclean didn’t include Canadian honkers at I.S. Zebra, did he?
          The snork is appreciated. I’m still running out into storms to see if I can get hit by a lightning bolt from the blue.
          I’ve extended my runs to gray days, too…

        • We know those aren’t lightning bolts, George. You’re dodging those blue lasers from Space. Recommend Blue tinfoil hat… with a ground wire to your shoe.

  2. Son in law working lots of overtime since hired last September.
    https://windsorstar.com/news/local-news/ford-begins-prep-work-for-new-engine-line-at-essex-engine
    Says to hire 150 more.
    “The line will give Ford the extra capacity needed to meet the needs of the Oakville Assembly Plant, which is being retooled to begin making F-Series Super Duty trucks in 2026, and its sprawling Kentucky Truck Assembly complex.”
    “They need these engines for the Super Duty trucks. It’s their most profitable vehicles and best seller.”
    “The line will give Essex Engine the capability to produce 6.7-litre and 7.3-litre V-8 engines in addition to the 5.0-litre V-8 it already manufactures.”
    Looks to me like Ford is backing the ICE.
    Vic

      • I think that is the operating thoughts of most of the Land Wales I see cruising my town’s stores, restaurants, and clothing stores.

        For some reason I seldom see them in the local gyms or participating in organized sports.

  3. I have a lot on my plate right now., and I have seriously tried to cut back on piling more on.., [ I am actually a bit overwhelmed.] but damn it ! .., now you go dropping this “Ebbinghaus-Ure” thingy in my lap. OK., “our collective” laps.
    Great ‘read’.., and fascinating idea/research. Congrats & Thanks !

    .., but there is one hitch in my get-along.., it is especially evident in the one comparison chart of the S&P, Dow & Nasdaq.., is that all of the given examples [indexes] start their decline from a single point – an single ‘event’., and subsequently go to zero. [ News report ] And that ‘news report’ can not be predicted [ with any real accuracy ].
    Though this may be useful in determining how far the event will effect the markets [ up or down ] Fibonacci and Elliott Wave Theory can pretty much do that right now.., but neither one can forecast, nor predict “when” the event will take place – the “When/What” that will trigger the markets move.

    My point?
    My “Carnac The Magnificent” has not set a new high this morning [ though it possibly could if we have another surge at the end of trading today..,] But, it is forming what looks to be a nice double-top.
    The S&P500 just set a new record high [ by seven points.] Double Top ?
    Interestingly, the Dow Transports have turned negative – which seems a bit odd. Down 25.7 points [ 0.15% ] Russell 2000 has turned negative, also.
    If the markets are going to follow the historical patterns then “right-about-here” we need a sell-off.., 25 to 40 % has been predicted / forecast. [ up to 55% has been thrown out there also.] But there is no sign of that happening., if anything the markets look to be heading higher. [ Possibly – “forced” higher.]
    So.., to follow the historic ‘norms’ there will have to be an ‘event’. Something rather monumental will have to take place to force the down-side move.
    Which takes right back to what I was saying [ above] We have no way to predict what that event would be., or, more importantly., “when”.
    How will “Ebbinghaus-Ure” help to predict turning points in a stock market ? Or., is it even designed for that ?

    • I will send you (ur pvt email) a few charts to noodle on but the core idea is that when a market is in “normal mode” (active ebbinghaus-ure) the dispersions are regular. As a change-state begins, chaos enters the scene and regularty of fdisperson seems to drop.
      First impressions – work continues and more on the PN side.

    • “Interestingly, the Dow Transports have turned negative – which seems a bit odd. Down 25.7 points [ 0.15% ]”

      Any stock or segment in particular? Bear in mind Trump’s “drill baby, drill” thingy will be accompanied by pipelines, which will cost BNSF several million per day in gravy profit. I assume other transportation stocks will suffer, as well…

  4. Trump has announced an $80 billion dollar collaboration for a massive push in A.I. development. And all of this new A.I. is going to be powered……, how?
    IMO – it would have more strategic to have invested that $80 billion into fusion development. The long term benefits from such an investment / push into fusion reactor power plants would pay off much better and much faster.

  5. In no special order:

    1) Trumpists must come to realize the oposition has been defeated only temporarily. They will fight like tigers now, and come back to the election battlefield, rededicated, shortly. It ain’t over. For now, they’ll be fighting geurilla way, with lawfare and direct action.

    2) …still working dilligently on fusion. Fabulous promise. (Needed for electric flying cars.) (Too cheap to meter when deployed.) Probably best done with very small scale fusion generators for such as aircraft engines, terrestrial vehicles, boats, subs, and other. Some units might be like small Honda field power generators — maybe 25kW and under.

    Check back in 25 to 30 years for off-the-shelf commercial devices. Buy stock in “FRAMATOM.”
    For example, one day, refrigertors will be self-contained fusion devices. Both China and Russia have thousands of square miles of good land with no local power grid. A few million tiny fusion gennys would be a boon.

    3) It’s always amazed me how a nearly-completely forgotten song will come surging back when I start to sing it. Lyrics are recalled tiny fracions of a second before they’re needed.

    4) Looks like it might be interewting to apply CHATebt and Ebbinghaus to your obervation of regular peiodicity in “mass shootings.” …or did I miss something? (Alas, I have not the time equipment, access, or ability to do this myself.)

    5) There is much beauty hidden deep in Nature. The deeper one digs………………

    • Yo Goodbuddy,

      You got Ure ears on ?

      That would be a negatory on the investment in framatome, as that entity is Private.
      Last funding round was on secondary market, but that is high roller grounds that the Plebs cant play on – read Restricted.

      Raytheon or Lockheed might be interesting in this regard.. might be.

    • re: 1/ Trumpists…
      feat: “Clue” & the butler

      William otRR,
      A tell of Administration direction may be if President Trump replaces the incumbent “non-partisan” White House Chief Usher? The current post occupant installed by President Biden offers bipartisan work experiences dating back to President Reagan. One placement sojourn had been at a Washington mansion towards its concluding years of ownership by descendants of the Du Pont family. Its original property boundaries of circa 1795 had included the lands upon which the White House stands. Apparently a pharmaceutical company operating in America while domiciled in Ireland for tax purposes purchased the historic mansion in 2011.

      The “New York Post” picked up a “Wall Street Journal” tip that the red button has been re-installed on the Resolute Desk in the Oval Office. The button alerts WH staff that a Diet-Coke replenishment is required by the Commander in Chief. As well it seems the Biden-era chocolate chip cookies on the coffee table have crumbled away with the re-appearance of ‘The Bronco Buster’ sculpture gifted to the President Carter Administration.

      According to “Wikipedia”, a life-size museum quality twin of ‘The Bronco Buster’ resides in Pagosa Springs, Co. Navajo belief says the People emerged into the Fifth World at Pagosa Springs.

      Before having chance to segue into DJ George serving up a platter of “Wolf Creek Pass” by C.W. McCall, a search engine requested a moment of time for a new series premiering January 28th: “Paradise – read between the lines”. This offered as an observation not an endorsement.

      P.S. – Thank you George for today’s chat. It’s most inspiring.

      • (“the red button has been re-installed on the Resolute Desk in the Oval Office. The button alerts WH staff that a Diet-Coke replenishment is required by the Commander in Chief. As well it seems the Biden-era chocolate chip cookies on the coffee table”)

        WHAT…no JELLY BELLIES….
        speaking about that my jugs almost empty… now how many times do you have to chew each one to burn up the callories..

  6. That should read: A “$500 billion” dollar investment/collaboration.., not $80 billion.
    I was thinking something else., and my thoughts got in the way.
    My bad.

    • Musk has already said it’s BS at most right now the actors could come up with 10B. But the announcement moves stocks and delights the herd.

  7. “human psychology”

    It’s everywhere. This is a local issue to me but mirrors the nation, I’m sure. Politicians say things that aren’t true then move on. Some people who admire the politician believe the politician then parrot while normies can’t get a word in edgewise. We see this a lot.

    The Detroit mayor was talking up how much Detroit housing has gained in value over the last year. Then he explained property tax rate increases are capped at 3.1% per the State of Michigan constitution.

    “Mayor Mike Duggan touts Detroit property values increasing for 9th year”

    “Detroit home values increased an average of 19% in 2024; Individual tax increases capped at 3.1%, Detroit homeowners gained $1.4 billion in wealth in 2024 from appreciating property values, the second largest in history”

    “Any home purchased prior to 2024 that gained value would see a property tax increase of 3.1% or less compared to last year’s rate”

    His quotes are simply not true. The truth is:

    The law is:

    “Value but not growth in SEV to the rate of inflation or 5%, whichever is less, until the property is transferred to another owner.”

    Since Detroit houses went up in value an average of 19% property tax increases will be the max of 5%. But the mayor is down there saying only 3.1%.

    Simply put the mayor is just saying things. The people who like the mayor are parroting what he said. They don’t want to listen to me. The mayor is the figure of authority.

    I mentioned in the past a new skyscraper is being built downtown while most of the buildings are vacant. Even General Motors wants out from their downtown location. The new building has zero renters.

    The politicians excited the people into wanting a new building and overlooked the facts of the mater, buildings need to be torn down because of glut.

    Leftist DEI is bad. Giving Intel billions to stay in business is good. Right?

  8. Amazon just announced that they are exiting all Quebec operations ‘immediately’. 1,700 jobs lost.
    Rumors abound that more regional closures are coming.
    Trump-ism ?

    • (“things don’t go up forever…”)

      what no federal reserve printers paradise of endless blue sky financing?

      who would have ever thought that putting ten dollars in a checking account then getting a box of a hundred checks means you actually have to have the cash… who would have thought that..phew.. now someone has to pass that onto congress and all of NATO and the demands for more money..

  9. Not madness JC it’s math.

    “BlackRock’s Larry Fink says bitcoin could reach $700,000 if this happens…”

    I agree with Larry, a typical supercycle 90% correction would send Bitcoin back to that $65K base we’ve built here.

    Meanwhile, it’s getting more expensive by the day to acquire Bitcoin with paper slips. LOL. But the cost of that new house in da OBX requires less and less Bitcoin to own with the passage of time…. That’s the kind of deflation that banks despise….

    https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=D4XcP2jH–A

    Not advice do your own homework.

    Got pattern recognition?

  10. Trump sets approval rating record.
    According to Rasmussen’s polling, 49 percent of Black voters approve of Trump, while 72 percent of Hispanic voters approve. Some 57 percent of women also approve, and 48 percent of independent voters.
    There was however, no stats given for ‘White voters’., or ‘Male voters’.
    For right now.., that’s pretty good.
    Rasmussen stated that they will be taking this same poll weekly for the first 90 days of the Trump Presidency. [ and supposedly report it.]

Comments are closed.