Just out from Census – but this is misleading at best: Up 1.7%? Don’t believe it.
Misleading this Mr. Ure say?
Why shore did! Lookie here, now: Monetary base is up 31% in the last year. The Retail Sales are measured how? Show of hands? Units? NO!!! You stooge, it’s measured in DOLLARS. So if the money circus-lating is up 31%, doesn’t that at least hint in the direction of 2.3% per month? If it doesn’t, you’re not paying attention. Act of faith that no one in the Buyed ‘Em administration is.
Of course retail sales is only the “end of the pipe” before things come home.
Along with Retail: Import Prices
Also just out (from Labor):
“U.S. import prices rose 1.2 percent in October following a 0.4-percent advance in September, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Higher fuel and nonfuel prices contributed to the October increase. Prices for U.S. exports advanced 1.5 percent in October, after rising 0.4 percent in September and 0.3 percent in August.
The price index for U.S. imports increased 1.2 percent in October, the largest monthly advance since a 1.3- percent rise in May. Prior to October, import prices advanced 0.5 percent from June to September. Prices for U.S. imports rose 10.7 percent from October 2020 to October 2021, the largest over-the-year increase since June 2021.”
Import prices are to some degree, likely influenced by the mess on the waterfront and the rail yards. (This is in addition to Biden killing American Energy Independence – October fuel imports were up 8.6%) So let’s focus for a sec on…
California: Retail’s Big But…
We are already tearing down the first stats on the California-driven supply chain collapse we talked about Monday. Long Beach numbers for the month are just out:
Not only has the California Air Resources Board (CARB) got a lot to answer for, so do the other regulators involved in this mess. Slo Biden’s involvement is meaningless stage theatrics.
When a truck driver can only make a single pickup from a Port in an 8-hour shift, and while (democrat-backing) rail tycoons can’t get their cargo off trains, America’s got a problem. A planned problem. As in hold-up.
So several is the issue that if America’s competitors (China and Russia) ever wanted to make their moves? The next three or four months would be prime-time. Because unlike WW II, Rosy the Riveter has left the building; off for three weeks of mandatory sensitivity training…
“What Gets Measured, Gets Done…”
Seriously: One of the key lessons which Americans should relearn from the supply chain cluster-suck is about how modern culture is likely materializing a kind of latter-day Hawthorne Effect. You can find it in Wikipedia, but the gist of it is when you measure performance people can really produce:
“The original research involved workers who made electrical relays at the Hawthorne Works, a Western Electric plant in Cicero, Illinois. Between 1924 and 1927, the famous lighting study was conducted. Workers experienced a series of lighting changes in which productivity was said to increase with almost any change in the lighting. This turned out not to be true. In the study that was associated with Elton Mayo, which ran from 1928 to 1932, a series of changes in work structure were implemented (e.g., changes in rest periods) in a group of five women. However, this was a methodologically poor, uncontrolled study that did not permit any firm conclusions to be drawn.
One of the later interpretations by Landsberger suggested that the novelty of being research subjects and the increased attention from such could lead to temporary increases in workers’ productivity. This interpretation was dubbed “the Hawthorne effect”.
From what we know about present-day working conditions becoming prevalent, the urge to measure and take merit seriously has gone almost totally out of vogue. No more Frederick Winslow Taylor thinking – making measurements to see how to get the most steel made. “Storming, norming, and conforming” to prevailing mediocrity.
In its place, America is birthing Namby-Pamby Land. Where losers and lazies have too many excuses and not enough hustle. Plus the enabler party in office.
Seems to me what’s happened is a generalized confusion over what equality (racial and gender) really meant to the Founders. Doesn’t mean everyone finishes the same. Only that everyone ought to start about the same. After that, you own it; no one else.
Back in the old days of America – order of finish was determined by actual effort. As merit has become an anathema in today’s PC-crazed world.
While the Marxists are rewriting history, and pounding poo into young brains, we’re astounded that great books of personal triumph (like Can’t Hurt Me: Master Your Mind and Defy the Odds (David Goggins)) haven’t become mandatory high school reading material. Not lost on Xi Jinping or Vlad Putin, we’re nearly certain.
Of course, we’re so old, we still remember the word Excellence. Thanks, lambkins, for providing stark contrast.
Bonds: A Laughing Matter
Loved the tip from tipster Linda at Law in Houston: check out the early CNBC futures report. See their error?
“Stocks’ move came as interest rates rose, with the yield on the 10-year Treasury note topping 1.62% while the 30-bear Treasury bond rose above 2%….”
We all know they were referring to the 30-beer Treasury…because bonds are like watching paint dry…leastwise to compulsive day-traders.
Pick a war…any war…
NY Times wrong again, in our estimation. Spouting the Party Line in “U.S.-China Summit: What Did It Achieve? – The New York Times.” More rational and less pandering to the slo is the Times of India report Biden Xi Meeting: Hours of talk, but little change after Biden-Xi virtual meeting We fear the NY Times – since it’s Slo – is serving this nothing-burger chrome-plated to Gothamites. Our read, unabashedly offered, is we’re inside the final 1-year of Taiwan. China takes while Joe looks for a teleprompter to channel Obama.
Ham Radio Opportunity: This reminds me, I should send a note to the American Radio Relay League (https://arrl.org) to get the word out to ham operators worldwide to get on the stick and pick up QSL cards (contact confirmations) from Taiwan, RoC, while they still can. When my buddy the Major and I were young, over a half-century ago, he was particularly envious of my QSL cards from countries that don’t even exist anymore. Rhodesia, for one. Congo for another. Anyone else have a QSL card from South Vietnam? (Even a MARS station counted toward 100 foreign countries contacted…)
Look! Up in the sky! It’s a… China quietly took control of Italian military drone maker, WSJ says. As RT reports China ready for ‘decisive measures’ over Taiwan.
So what blows first?
Toss Ukraine on the War Short-List, as well: Britain’s Defence Minister Visits Ukraine as Concern Over Russian Troop Movements Persists | US News. The Brits have already sent 500 troops into Poland.
Why Poland? Because Russia’s doing pretty much what Marxist radicals are doing to the southern US border: Round up migrants and give ’em pointers on border-jumping. Which is noticed in Poland border crisis: Migrants tear-gassed trying to cross from Belarus – BBC News. Where, oh where, are the self-righteous open borders people now, we wonder… In Denmark, apparently since With dozens in limbo, Denmark pressured to reverse refugee policy.
EU Grip Tightens on Poland, meanwhile. As the EU is now dictating judicial process to the once-sovereign country. EU court rules against Poland over judicial appointments – CNN. Our long-term view of the EU as a megalomaniac’s bureaucracy is not likely to be reversed.
Near-by is Belarus, though not as likely to change hands. Russia Deploys Commandos to Belarus as Migrant Crisis, Ukraine Tensions Spark Western Fears – US News.
And what’s really a joke: Biden May Up Ukraine Intelligence-Sharing You mean like how much Hunter made “consulting” and kicked up to Pops? The EU wants Ukraine – petroleum basin and warm water port – all of it – back under the NATO flag. Down payments have been made via Hunter for support, so we’re guessing six-months tops before the whole shitteree blows sky high. Led in by Commander Joe? God help us.
For now “soldier gathering” continues. Turkey intensifies military cooperation with Ukraine. And Russia tests its satellite killer weapon. Logistics matter…or will soon enough.
Repeat after me: Covid is a Business Model. Pfizer, BioNTech, Moderna making $1,000 profit every second: analysis.
Deification of Fauci continues Dr. Fauci says Covid cases are starting to climb in some areas of the U.S… 500-jabs for everyone! Not limit to money!
While Ivermectin remains not OTC (which it ought to be, but we don’t have captive regulator jobs with massive golden parachutes to pass out) did you notice where Prozac may reduce CV-19 problems? Certain Antidepressants Appear to Curb Severe COVID-19. Is Prozac generic, yet? If it is, look for this story to be buried…
Rittenhouse verdict is pending. And look! This will sure help: Tensions flare in Arbery death trial as Jesse Jackson visits. Let’s see how many people can be whipped up and “led” to violence, shall we? Everything’s a monetization and the media could use a little hysteria to keep eyeballs glued…
Our fave political hack is back making headlines in the Lone Star: Beto O’Rourke Is Running for Governor. Makes McCaughnahey a shoo-in, doesn’t it? We figure O’Rourke will carry Austin, but not native (non-Californian spoiled) parts of the state. This as we expect incumbent Gov. Greg Abbott to end up in national office. Cream rises to the top and all…
ATR: Good Gravy
We will be making another $450 grocery run in the next couple of days. Time of the year when the eats get really, really good.
For example, while not quite free, Wal-Mart has choice Prime Rib Roasts in stock. Weather will be turning cooler, so toss in pot roast fixing’s and a couple of jugs of Pisano to wash it down with.
Much as James Beard was able to up the benchmark by getting into the chemistry of good food a bit, my personal kitchen calling has been gravies.
There are plenty of options to choose from: Regular flour, pastry flour, bread flour but then we get off the beaten track a ways. Wondra. Already decided that Bob’s Red Mill Oat flour made a better turkey gravy. But just this week, Amazon dropped over a bag of buckwheat flour.
Haven’t played much with buckwheat, but since it’s reportedly safe for people who get distended guts from wheat (celiac), figured I would give it a try. (I can drop five pounds in a heartbeat by giving up all wheat for a week, including M.S.G.).
The experiments will begin with the pot roast, but I’ll give you an update as experiments progress over the winter.
No gravy, of course. But the sharpening of knives is best put on your list for this weekend. Because, as Pappy always taught me, “The difference between a $5 steak and a $10 steak is a razor-sharp knife.” You’ll need to inflation adjust for 60-years of inflation… Works that way with prime rib, too.
bon appetite and write when you get rich,