War is coming. But, the band plays on. Besides, too early to figure which war will come first… Europe’s or Taiwan/Australia’s? Both seem ready to heat up. Yet, adversity and opportunity often make joint appearances. So, which will it be?
Americans can, at least in theory, remember the Great Crash was in October of 1929.
Yet, how many are taught the day U.S. stocks hit their Depression era lows? That was a great time to buy.
One candidate would be July 8, 1932. For on that date, the Dow closed at 41.22. Everyone is taught “Crash!” – few (if any) are taught Opportunity Day.
Less than a year later – May 18, 1933 – the Industrials closed at 82.57. We should be teaching this as Double Day – inspiring people to think a little differently about Life.
Instead, schools hopelessly peddle CRT and gender-checks, lol. Well, what do you expect? The American meritocracy – rewarding of excellence – is dead. We’re just figuring out this Funeral we’ve been watching.
Pick a shame and wear it proudly. It’s what involuntary mourners are supposed to do.
How Far To Ride?
If – instead of Common Core, we had a more American Exceptionalism slant to education – we might have asked “When would be Sell Before War Day?”
Sure, Japan attacked on December 7, 1941. But when were the market moves in advance of other war-driving events?
Take Hitler invading Poland September 1, 1939. Market made a bottom (134.41) the day before. August 31, 1939. Many saw it coming. But beforehand? When was the right time to get out? More than a year in advance. November 9th, 1938 with the Industrials at 158.01.
When Poland fell, a 9-day rally ensued. Markets drove ahead to 155.92. That’s a 16 percent rally – can’t beat that kind of action with a stick. Should we go long if Taiwan falls? Tough one.
Back to our point – and our present fascination with War:
We are reminded “In the Chinese language, the word “crisis” is composed of two characters, one representing danger and the other, opportunity.”
Xi Speaks – Will Joe Hear?
The bullshit and bluster machinery from “potato chip” on down is already ratcheting up: Biden to tell Xi that China must play by the rules – senior U.S. official. Laughable hubris.
You see, we’re in no position to be shot-callers. A bit of personal education is free for the reading in The Atlantic this morning: Xi Jinping’s Terrifying New China – The Atlantic.
A pull-quote gets to the heart of what I have told you before: The feminization of America is not likely, in historical measures, to work out well for us. From the Atlantic article?
“Chinese companies face more hurdles to listing on public stock markets abroad and education providers are no longer allowed to offer online lessons run with foreign teachers, while local television bars men whose hairstyles are deemed insufficiently masculine.”
We are reminded of Hitler’s discussion of masculinity as the basis of a warrior society in his lesser-known Second Book.
Oz in Sights
The Australian 60-minutes show is one of few worldwide with their eyes open to this unpleasant future:
China is in a position where expansion – similar to Hitler’s rallying cries prior to WW II – they could snag a potential breadbasket – which has put Australia in their sights.
Traitors on the Home Front
In the global war of ideologies, the U.S./West are seriously off the pace. But even worse, says our Century City legal analyst:
So there it is. They shut down pipelines, jam the ports and then say it’s an argument for green energy. Traitors.”
Control the press, control the food, control the power – Bolshevism 101.
Is Brandonism overtaking Maoism?
Supply Chains to Break More
Reform California has outed the causes. 30% of U.S. imports come through California. “No trucks older than 2011…” And lots of requirements for monitoring… thanks CARB and Cali-dems. “It’s a manmade shortage caused by California politicians.”
Despite the hype and lies of national media,
One root cause? California A.B. 5 case which bans private contractors. There went some of the independent truck drivers. Grusome should have been recalled. The short version is California went after independent drivers (Like Uber and Lift and the foodies) and took down the supply chain. The legal evolution is well described over here.
OK, not only does Grusome need to be dis-elected ASAP, but California needs to become two states because this one clearly has no business being in business. (Don’t even start me on CARB over-reach.)
To be fair, Port of Los Angeles cargo inbound is only down half a percent (roughly) compared with the same month last year. But last month imports were down significantly from May’s high (535,714.20 imports inbound to 468,059.15. Down 12 percent? Aye….
Also, don’t let your thinking be misled by the plandemic/bioweapon. 2020 imports (*LA only) totaled 9,213,395.95 compared with 2018 which saw 9,458,748.50 containers moved.
Empties being moved last month were up almost 28% but big drops in exports… Updated figures will be along this week and we’ll go over them on Peoplenomics.
What Americans can’t seem to understand is that environmentalism is a mainly left-wing cause. Through careful deception, America has short-sold itself. As evidenced by the recent actions of the Bungler in Chief. More suited to playing Little Red Riding Hood than President.
A country too dumb to count new Chinese coal-fired plants coming online and too simple to fathom that electric vehicles simply move pollution from the road out front to the nuclear plant up the highway. All by design and it’s not moderates.
Nevertheless, Elaine and I are considering another pallet of solar panels and more energy storage. The grid’s not going to be around forever. Especially with Joe Biden in office.
Then It Get’s Worse
If killing pipelines and orchestrating supply chain disruptions isn’t enough, there’s a second front opening in Eastern Europe.
Starting with Ukraine where Ukraine says Russia has nearly 100,000 troops near its border.
Then we see the British are sending ground forces into Poland: British troops deployed to Polish border as tensions with Russia rise.
Then there’s Azerbaijan which could blow up at any second: Armenian PM accuses Azeri troops of violating border, sacks defence minister.
All the while, Russia is orchestrating a pressure front on Biden, who’s preoccupied with China and with scuttling American energy independence while trying to fund his economic fairytales. Russia to take asymmetric retaliatory steps to any ‘unfriendly’ Western actions: Lavrov.
Guns of August replay ahead?
So, where is the U.S. military in all this? Well, those people who we already told you were Marxists, are ready to hit the streets today as soon as a verdict comes in the Rittenhouse trial. 500 National Guard troops on standby as closing arguments set for Kyle Rittenhouse trial.
While my consigliere and I were wrong on China taking Taiwan as early as now, we do hear from people on the other side of a 2-beer bet (with people who know people, who know people and remind us that the PLA will be at 112% of force levels late summer of 2022), that just as in the lead-in to WW II, we may be in a window now where markets could be peaking.
The bets on Labor Day 2022 are looking smarter. Yet even more frightening. Because we can already see China seeming to prepare totally overwhelming force to take-back Taiwan. Which we see as likely to confound talking-head experts on TV.
They’ll miss the obvious: When China begins to move, they won’t stop at the island of Formosa. There’s not enough real estate involved.
Australia, on the other hand? Now you’re talking.
Forget the bubble-head press here. Stick to the talks summary expected in Chinese media. No less dishonest than our own.
Fall of Empire?
Well, if you’re thinking the NY Fed Empire State Manufacturing report, try this one: Empire is still rising:
“The headline general business conditions
index climbed eleven points to 30.9.
New orders and shipments posted
substantial increases, and unfilled
orders rose. Delivery times were
significantly longer. Employment grew
at its fastest pace on record, and the
average workweek increased.”
But looking ahead?
“Firms were less optimistic about
the six-month outlook than they
were last month, with the index for
future business conditions falling
fifteen points to 36.9. The indexes
for future new orders and shipments
fell to similar levels. Longer delivery
times, higher prices, and increases
in employment are all expected
in the months ahead. “
Earlier, Dow futures were up 100 on the Dow and another 10 on the S&P. To us, sure seems like 1938.
What People Forget…
Is that the hyperinflation the US Fed has engaged in – to obfuscate the reality of us being in a Depression – is also a global event.
Which is why there is much to be learned from reading: Japan GDP: Economy shrinks more than expected as supply shortages hit – CNN.
Economies are measured by monetary units, not units of goods. Forget the money manipulations for even a second and when units of goods fail (supply chain or whatever you want to call it) what leaks out is the reality of Global Economic Collapse. My…ain’t we the optimists?
Over in the woke-lefty dream land: Cuba cracks down on dissent ahead of protest march – BBC News.
Yes, as mentioned in a recent PN report, there is a place for drones in prepping. Not following? Try Israeli-made suicide drone to “blows up” Russian T-90 tank (defence-blog.com) for ideas…
Climate of disappointment? Glasgow Summit Ends Amidst Climate of Disappointment — Global Issues.
ATR: Planning Turkey
Just a reminder that we will be taking Thanksgiving Day off from our usual writings. However, odds are good we will find something to say on “national call your broker day” (Black Friday). Back when there were brokers.
Don’t know about you, but we’re already sick of the national retailers loading the inbox down with “sneak peaks.”
Our little 10.8 pound Butterball is safely in the freezer waiting the Call of Duty, as it were. Going to try and remember to get this one into the fridge and try the slow thaw.
Shop projects are moving along nice, too, including my “system” of cutting sheet goods, which we will get to on ShopTalk Sunday this week.
Other than dandy weather, seems like a good day to work on the Peoplenomics report for Wednesday. Hope you have a dandy and didn’t go short over the weekend: Dow futures up 150 after the Empire State data, and a bump of nearly 20 lurks for the S&P.
Good time to be sitting in cash – calling tops in tulips and stocks is too much work at this age. Spending down cash, drinking good wine. Life may be short in a couple of years.
Write when you get rich,