Somewhere along the line, it may have occurred to you to ask”Why is this Ure fellow so wrapped up in research related to longwave economics?”
I hope you won’t be too disappointed: For me it’s all about being prepared for the future. As I have said uncountable times, there are two ways to win in Life. You can play for maximum gains (in which case I assure you I would be stinkin’ rich by now) OR you can play for minimum loss, in which case you find me with a lone gold coin, surrounded by large trees, money in the back, wonderful wife, debt-free, and so forth.
OK…this has what to do with the future?
Well, if you don’t have a pretty good idea about what the future holds, you won’t be able to project what is coming. Thus, if you hold to the “plan for minimum losses” approach, you won’t know what to plan for.
Take any number of past topics around here that we have seen coming well in advance. Like the present shortage (in some areas and some calibers). I first started to write about this back in 2007 or 2008 when the Gun Owners of America noticed something odd happening.
Research followed and a few selected bets were made. And so I never have to worry about that aspect of future.
Same thing with food prices and shortages.
Researched the hell out of things, and sure enough, we think the outlook for food, especially in light of the energy and bee picture is pretty grim. How to hedge? Coauthor a book on hydroponics and have all kinds of preps in that regard and the large (20 panels worth) of solar power to ensure we will be cool and fed into the future.
When that first appeared, the critical items (MaxiGrow and MaxiBloom) were picked up in bulk. Again,; another problem we won’t have to worry about.
And so it goes: Future appears, gives hints, one proactively plans and then kicks back to watch how the play follows as 7-billion people follow along behind.
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Economics is not the only way to play this game, of course. I used to write a good bit about an approach called predictive linguistics.
But the goal posts are now moving in that arena. In fact, just yesterday, a EurekaAlert offered this:
A system detects global trends in social networks 2 months in advance
Works using just 50,000 Twitter accounts
This news release is available in Spanish.
A new method of monitoring identifies what information will be relevant on social networks up to two months in advance. This may help predict social movements, consumer reactions or possible outbreaks of epidemics, according to a study in the Universidad Carlos III of Madrid (UC3M) is participating.
The aim of the research, on which scientists from the Universidad Autónoma of Madrid, the NICTA of Australia, and the American universities Yale and the University of California-San Diego have also collaborated, was to test what is known as the “sensors hypothesis” on the social networks: Is it possible to find a group of people (sentinels or sensors) with a special position that would allow the information that “goes viral” globally on the internet to be monitored? “If we could do that, we would be able to predict that viral spread, which would allow us to better understand social mobilization, debates regarding opinions, health, etc., and to determine how they become global,” explains one of the researchers, Esteban Moro Egido, of the Interdisciplinary Complex Systems Group at UC3M (Grupo Interdisciplinar de Sistemas Complejos).
Nice work, huh?
Of course the problem with this is that we (you, me, the genpop at large) will never see all the outputs from this because why? How about “We’re not writing the checks…”?
A good bit can, however, be done with simple tools like word frequency analysis, which is why our very public www.nostracodeus.com project runs daily and posts bits, clips, but mainly words that are either ascending or descending and these give us a sense of future.
While yesterday’s data has us looking for some kind of replay or referencing of Nelson Mandela over coming days, we are intrigued by the present word groupings Sanctions, War, Attack, Economy, Collapse. Grady will have an update on the www.nostracodeus.com site this morning. Main thing is this is not a system where so much interpretation is left to the discretion of an informed analyst. Rather, the data is the data and we can all look at the tea leaves using the tool.
And that gets us to the point. (At last!)
The other way of “seeing alternate futures” is by paying attention to dreams.