Money Management: This is a Casino

You ever walk into a casino?  There are carefully controlled aspects to it you seldom think about.  But, just as one example, there is never a clock around.  That’s because (for obvious reasons) casinos don’t want you knowing what time it is.

Similarly, in the financial markets, the little matter of “What Time is It?” is of more than passing importance.

If, for example, the stock market is headed for new highs, which some of the data would suggest (like the stronger than expected leading indicators), the people who run the markets (the commercials) would love nothing better than to load the boat ahead of time – buying when stocks are cheap.  That way, when stocks run up, they will sell at higher prices and keep the casino going.

On the other hand, if the crap is really going to hit the fan in eastern Europe,; then there would be a massive re-ordering of the world’s economy and that would run the other way for casino owners.  They would be dumping stocks, going to cash and letting the public take the bath.  They’d wait patiently for a good bottom to be put in, and then buy again.

Normally, the Long Wave is pretty clear.  We have been in a period of declining interest rates since about 1980’s, so with all parties, things are going to have to end some time.

The problem is When?

imageWe’ve been following a particular “replay” of markets in our Trading Model over on our subscribers-only Peoplenomics side of things.  And without giving away the whole plot, we can see a scenario where one or two and maybe even three more weeks of up markets are possible

But as explained in yesterday’s report here, Vlad Putin has a couple of firecrackers strapped to his behind, so I’m cautiously looking at adding to a short position going forward.

The market – somewhat conflicted – has edged back into a long position in our model, but the size of the reading is not very convincing.  There’s a lack of conviction developing.

That might improve later this morning when a couple of housing numbers coming in and tomorrow we get the new home sales figures.  But the rest of the week – save Dural Orders – isn’t very exciting, unless the Michigan Sentiment Indicator turns your crank.

Sure, imports are up (and it may be bad for the balance of trade) but as we explained to subscribers recently, the increases in foreign military sales will likely offset some of that, regardless of the karmic implications.

If your life savings is on the bullish side of things, and if your idea of “long-term investing” is two weeks, then you should be in good shape.

Just remember casinos don’t have clocks.  And the reason for it is so you won’t think about how late it’s getting.  And in economic long wave theory, closing time comes along pretty soon.  It might be a couple of years, but again we ask rhetorically:  If you had money in the market in 1927 or 1928…even ‘29….how close do you think you could have plated it then and what do you think it’s any easier a decision now?

Dow futures are up 9 whole points.  Got the time, buddy?

About Those Firecrackers

Veep Joe is off whipping up the folks in Ukraine saying the US will support them.  Presumably, this will mean more than passing around cookies, but we shall see.  As stated earlier, “exercises” with 150 soldiers are not likely to scare Putin.

Since we just got done last week, putting in our payments to the FedGov, you may be wondering how much money the US government has piled into the Ukraine bet:  Well, according to his article in the Kyiv Post, “Nuland says US spent $5-billion to back democracy in Ukraine.”

Ures truly, being dense, and all thought backing democracy would involve elections.  But to be clear, the amount admitted by former Bush turned Obama Stater, Victoria Nuland, that’s the tab since 1991.

Why, that’s only $15.97 per American – and spread out since 1991, it’s all budget dust, right?

Of course, its more like $35 per worker, since retired don’t pay as much tax and kids, well, they’ll eat you out of house and home, not earning their deductions.  But it’s something to think about.

Just put it on the list of other “change” including Gitmo (still there), Stan (still there), keep your own doctor (uh….)….

When the list of promises broken gets long enough, you end up with militias talking tough, but I SUPPOSE you figured that out by now.

Grab Some More

But, in case you haven’t, keep an eye on the Bunglers of Land Management who are now trying to scoop up another piece of property – this one in North Texas.

In this latest fiasco, BLM is trying to rewrite generations of actually deeded land.

Ron Paul’s comments are worth seeing, if you haven’t.

More after this.

Maudlin America

Continuing a theme from a recent Peoplenomics report, we can’t help but be dismayed at the number of people buy in to stories that fill important air time and don’t call politicians to account by asking hard, obvious, and not “pre-filtered” questions of newsmakers.

Instead, the Mainstream media is full of useless stories that are heart still pullers but nevertheless will have little (likely NO) impact of your life, or those of your offspring going forward.

Just, for example, the latest string of stories out of Korea don’t mean jack:  You weren’t really going to take a Korean ferry anywhere in the next, oh, hundred years or so, were you?

Or, take the matter of MH370.  This one is dragging out longer than a bad TV show with no plot and the obvious need for “filler” material, since news departments have doubled down with huge bets that those trip expense reports will be justified by live action of the first body being recovered, if it ever is…

Definition: “Maudlin: self-pityingly or tearfully sentimental, often through drunkenness.”

‘Cept instead of drunkenness, how about through that feel-good pill haze?  Tell your doctor.

Making Up Law

Oh, sure, there’s LAW on the books that say illegals in America get deported.  But care to guess who is making up WHEN to enforce the law, pretending the rest of the time it is NOT THE LAW?

You go read this story and figure it out. 

See William Chambliss’ “Vice, Corruption, Bureaucracy, and Power” (circa 1971).  What works at the city level (where I covered it as a cop shop reporter and the federal grand juries) seems to have grown up and gone national.  Now seems to be untouchable.

We’re either a country or full-time, always equally applied law, or we’re corrupt.  It really is THAT simple.

Tolerance policies are selective enforcement dressed up in pretty clothes for political hacks.  “That law doesn’t apply to me…I’m special.”  Then you ain’t in America, by the law books I’ve read.  But that only works if the Courts aren’t packed…

Why isn’t the press calling bullshit on this and calling people out on this with questions like “Aren’t you selectively breaking the law here?”  “Where is the right to break law delegated to you, sir?”  FMTT.

Seen equality around anywhere? WTFU

Over Russia

The US and Russia are flying spy missions over one another’s countries.  Gee, that sure makes me feel safe, doesn’t it you?

Lights Out

Note from warhammer:


What exactly might the PTB be prepping John Q. Citizen for with the release of this bit of ‘duh’ EMP news.


From burned retinas, blindness and scorched skin for those struck by the sheer awe of a nuclear HAB (high altitude burst), a “new sun” for all intents and purposes, who are drawn to stare at the fireball for too long, to the frying of every non-hardened circuit followed by months to years of trying to survive without power, gas and water, the ramifications would surely be civilization altering (and for many, life ending).

On the other hand, perhaps NASA expects a grand CME on the scale of the 1859 Carrington Event, similarly sending the sun-facing side of the planet back into the pre-electric agricultural age. Were such a CME to hit N. America, most people lack the land, free flowing water, seeds, tools and general know how to provide food for themselves and their families. Millions would certainly perish.

Whether for a HAB or a CME, the news release is definitely most curious. Ure thoughts?


Like I said in this week’s opening headline:  Flash Goggle Monday.  Overflights and lights, WH, overflights and lights.