Peoplenomics: Social Security – Why I’m Retiring Early

This is not one of those “I’m going to retire early because I want to get something back for all those payments I put in,” kind of stories. This is a story about how to optimize when a person who is just coming up on the NRA (normal retirement age in Social Securitese) has to “run the numbers” which was one of this week’s important projects around here. Even if you’re not going to retire yourself shortly, odds are that you know someone who is just about to hit the “graying out” age and it’s useful stuff to know. Oh, and along the way? You’ll find how the Social Security rules screw people born before June.

Gobs of Jobs

That’s the main idea that folks on Wall St. and in Washington would like to put out there, except whether it’s believable is another matter.  We begin with the data just released by the Labor Department:

Total nonfarm payroll employment rose by 113,000 in January, and the unemployment rate was little changed at 6.6 percent, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Employment grew in construction, manufacturing, wholesale trade, and mining.

Household Survey Data

Both the number of unemployed persons, at 10.2 million, and the unemployment rate, at 6.6 percent, changed little in January. Since October, the jobless rate has decreased by 0.6 percentage point. (See table A-1.) (See the note and tables B and C for information about the effect of annual population adjustments to the household survey estimates.)

Among the major worker groups, the unemployment rates for adult men (6.2 percent), adult women (5.9 percent), teenagers (20.7 percent), whites (5.7 percent), blacks (12.1 percent), and Hispanics (8.4 percent) showed little change in January. The jobless rate for Asians was 4.8 percent (not seasonally adjusted), down by 1.7 percentage points over the year.

Next, we take a look at the “estimated into existence” numbers that come from the CES Birth-Death Model.  But that data set *usually found here* hadn’t been updated at press time.

A couple of other key numbers to slosh around in the old noggin:  One is the labor participation rate which picked up 0.2% to 63% of the workforce.  The absolute number of employed was up too…by 638,000 workers.

Also, the table U6 number (alternative measures of labor under-utilization) dropped to 12.7%  from 13.1%.

All of which is likely to lead to a 75-point rally in the Dow at the open, or thereabouts.

One more number to keep an eye on, and it will come in the final hour before the market closes today:  That’s the Federal Reserve data on Consumer Debt (which they call credit, but it’s all about them, isn’t it?).

Current 3-month M1 print rate is now screaming along at 9.3% rate annualized.

So if prices are going up 2 1/2% does that mean deflation is 7 1/2%?

Hype-Coins Biting the Dust?

I couldn’t help but notice that the (much touted and hyped) price of Bitcoins was down to $683 when I looked earlier.  Not to say that they won’t have another rise – who knows?  But the reason du jour for the drop is that a Japan based exchange is troubling things and that leaves the future of Bitcoin (some claim) bright, but (to me) questionable…if that makes sense.

From the top:  As I’ve consistently told you:  Bitcoins do not end any federal tax obligations, they aren’t backed by anything, any more than the dollar is, and they have the additional risks of being hacked at some point as well as requiring a computer and the internet in order to work.

As we’ve pointed out before, on balance, that $100- bill in your pocket looks like it still works about as well in comparison and it bring the tax avoidance worries that go with crypto currencies.  Yep, I’m old school…

But seriously:  As clever as financial commentator Max Keiser is with his logic  behind claims of superiority of his new MaxCoin, we have to wonder why anyone would be silly enough to trust a pseudo currency backed by a pundit and computers versus staying with a currency backed by  (lemme see here…) an Army, Navy, Air Force and IRS. 

Am I the only one who noticed the Feds are going after coinsters for operating unregistered money transfer operations which is (cower in the corner as I invoke the great word) terrorism?

Common sense, for now, tells me to keep money on Goliath and don’t bet on the David’s…there’s gonna be a whole parade of them and eventually – as we forecast in Peoplenomics – the feds will roll out their version of alt money and that will be that.

The whole thing keeps being packaged by the hypsters as a bunch of Paul Revere types.  That’s the kind of emo marketing that makes road kill.  Ask me about how Iraqi Dinars are doing?

Sochi Lights Up

To read the International Business Times version of it, the Sochi Games will have a kind of ‘Hail Stalin-era Industrial Revolution” vibe to it.

For some of the better streaming out there, check out www.rt.com or see them live on free to air satellite TV.

Ukraine Calendar

With the leaking documents starting to speed up, what we’ve been reporting about the West trying to dismember Ukraine and shove it into the EU bag of losers, seems spot on with the New York Times now reporting on the Russian Claims US Meddling over Ukraine.

The US, meantime, is eating that F*ck the EU remark.  Apparently, we can’t speak directly about how the Enterprise is off conquering the world for the NWOers who are effectively stealing democracy from Europe  and sitting back as the EU goes expansionist mindset on the world.  (Ask the Syrians about this.)

Circle February 24 on the calendar – Sochi games are over on the 23rd.  Putin’s gonna take action after the games.

Global Warming

Snowing in Beijing this morning.

US: Never Stops Selling

The Chinese media, by the way, are giving some prominence to the story “Iran urges to stop pressuring Tehran over nuclear program.”

The Obamanista press mongers keeps hinting at “dismantling” and the Iranians are asking us to stop making up things that weren’t in the nuclear agreement.  Who, US?

Bye-Bye Leno

This is just a place-holder because if you really cared, you would have stayed up late to watch. 

If you were overcome by sleep, the Washington Post coverage here summarizes.

Drought and About

While there has been a little bit of rain now in parched central California, there are still plenty of drought worries.  Like this story that says in some places just 89-days until there is no water.

Those New Clinton Claims – A Curious Recant

Yesterday, we were telling you there was a story making the rounds alleging how ex-prez Bill Clinton supposedly had another affair besides the Monica story that’s been beat to death several times over….the claim was that Bill’d been with an actress. 

WELL… now comes the curious recant as “Tom Sizemore admits to making up story about year-long affair between Elizabeth Hurley and former President Bill Clinton, citing past drug use.”

All of which is interesting and all of which is likely to end up in the courts.  But I wanted to be sure to pass it along since Hillary will likely be on the demo ticket in 2016…

And, unless the republicorps can figure out how to speak in  complete sentences that make sense, will probably win.  I mean, like it, or don’t, that’s reality.  Sort of like arguing with gravity or yelling at the time.  Though I still think Ted Cruz would do well….

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Coping: With Home Handy-Bastard’s & Saws, II

Table saw connoisseurs gather round…note here from reader Ken as a follow-up to our discussion over yesterday’s bean about the be-all, end-all BEST table saw out there for the money:

For years one of the many rewarding hats that I wore was working in a professional cabinet shop. Now I am not saying that the two thousand dollar saw is a waste of money since I would love to have one in my garage.. but what I do to get the perfect work table is make a set of side tables for the saw.. that way you can put a whole sheet of plywood on it and have the flexibility of being able to rotate the stock. I also love the panel saw guide I have to.. anyway here is a website showing a nifty set of side tables that are easy to make and store yet give you the large table area that would enable you to produce like the larger cabinet shops..( actually that is what we  had at our shop tables for our custom cabinets so we could lay out what we were going to do.. ) In any event something to ponder other than an economic crash on a Thursday afternoon..

Table Saw Extension Wing

Table Saw Outfeed Table

Over at this link (Sears) this is the table saw I have and love.. I used to have one of the older sears saws.. what was bad about that is the storage of it.. you almost had to have a dedicated work shop this saw on the other had is easy to store and use with the extension tables you will be able to store the whole thing in a foot print of thirty inches by thirty six inches..

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Asia Now: Rhymes on World War II

First thing I did this morning was ask “Is this the day I become a millionaire?”  Then the answer came to me:  No chance, fool.

Still, betting on the market doing down has not been an entirely bad thing for us financially although early on this morning it looked like the market would bounce a bit, but that would be fine. 

What’s got our attention, more than anything, since we don’t get the jobs numbers until tomorrow, is what is the reference to “the rose people” that keeps peeking out of our www.nostracodeus.com data?  Odd word to come floating up…so you might want to check the site later on this morning because Grady will be updating as soon as the overnight runs are done.

Which leaves us with the Baltic Dry Index as our next topic du jour.  This index has been flopping around at about the 1100 level recently and this morning’s reading is 1092, but only up 6-points.  Spring hasn’t exactly broken out yet and there ain’t no birds singing….

To put that in perspective, that’s about 1/2 of what it was just a few months back, and since the Baltic Dry tends to front-run the more staid economic indicators, it’s worth keeping an eye on where it goes from here because excursions below 1,000 become worrisome.

While the mainstream is trying to figure out how to come up with yet another useless Seahawks human interest follow-up story, we’re more focused around here on what’s going on in China.

China’s state-run media (as opposed to our corporate-controlled media) is playing a strong rhyme off of pre World War II events.  Seems the head of Japan’s NHK Broadcasting service did something of a denial deal about the Nanking Massacre.  Which, if you’re Chinese (or read Wikipedia) is pretty real…

The Nanking Massacre, also known as the Rape of Nanking, was an episode of mass murder and mass rape committed by Japanese troops against Nanking (current official spelling: Nanjing) during the Second Sino-Japanese War in 1937. The massacre occurred during a six-week period starting December 13, 1937, the day that the Japanese captured Nanking, which was then the Chinese capital. (See Republic of China). During this period, hundreds of thousands of Chinese civilians and disarmed combatants were murdered by soldiers of the Imperial Japanese Army.[1][2] Widespread rape and looting also occurred.[3][4] Historians and witnesses have estimated that 250,000 to 300,000 people were killed.[5] Several of the key perpetrators of the atrocities, at the time labelled as war crimes, were later tried and found guilty at the Nanjing War Crimes Tribunal, and were executed. Another key perpetrator, Prince Asaka, a member of the Imperial Family, escaped prosecution by having earlier been granted immunity by the Allies.

And so this morning, Xinhua offers this: “Foreign Ministry spokesman Hong Lei said that such behavior is “a barefaced challenge to the international justice and human conscience.”

Since these events hark back to the middle 30’s, and since we are in a Long Wave economic Depression (which is why interest rates are zero, if you skip the money printing festival) there are even more parallels to the pre-WW II period to be found.

For example, the US-backed president of the Philippines, Benigno Aquino, has been saying harsh things about China lately, including drawing a parallel between appeasement of Hitler and current events in the Senkaku Islands area  (Okinawa, East China Sea area) and that, in turn, has pissed off the Chinese.

The US, knowing which side our bonds are buttered on (if China completely goes cold turkey on the Dollar, we’re all screwed and a few folks in Washington grok that) some we’re off placing the typical US two-faced game. 

The way this runs is we say (from the US voice) that the Chinese are acting professionally in their air defense zone that they have set up over the disputed Islands area (with oil and gas under it, which is why all this dance is going in the first place).  And we’re gently asking China to adjust some of its claims.

No, we don’t expect China to adjust its claims.  Besides, China could still be miffed that so few people have an understanding of history, including that a Chinese Fleet sailed around the whole world in the years before Christopher Columbus, but they get no creds, even now, for being a global civilization because it didn’t set with the made-up history of Europe, but that’s another discussion – probably left for the chat about the deep (and twisted) roots of American Exceptionalism.

So our money is on China continue to ramp up military spending while they public are talking about their “New Economy””.  I’m thinking iron fist in soft glove.

And this has what to do with becoming a millionaire?  Ever look for Chinese defense industry companies to invest in?

Rolling in Data

We have a number of incredibly interesting numbers to report this morning…and I bet you’ve been up since midnight just counting down the seconds until you could get the new balance of trade figures, haven’t you?

The U.S. Census Bureau and the U.S. Bureau of
Economic Analysis, through the Department of Commerce,
announced today that total December exports of $191.3 billion
and imports of $230.0 billion resulted in a goods and services
deficit of $38.7 billion, up from $34.6 billion in November,
revised. December exports were $3.5 billion less than
November exports of $194.8 billion. December imports were
$0.6 billion more than November imports of $229.4 billion.

In December, the goods deficit increased $4.6 billion
from November to $58.8 billion, and the services surplus
increased $0.4 billion from November to $20.1 billion.
Exports of goods decreased $4.3 billion to $132.8 billion, and
imports of goods increased $0.3 billion to $191.6 billion.
Exports of services increased $0.8 billion to $58.5 billion, and
imports of services increased $0.3 billion to $38.4 billion.

OMG is that exciting, or what?  Well, how about the new Q4 productivity report…another wet spot for sure…

Nonfarm business sector labor productivity increased at a 3.2 percent annual rate during the fourth quarter of 2013, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today.

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Coping: The Table Saw Connoisseur

You ever have one of those days when you wonder “Is the Internet developing a mind of its own?”

The reason for this is a bit weird, but I think you’ll appreciate the story.  Getting to it may be a little circuitous, but that’s what coffee is for, am I right?

So there I am, sitting around the house in a few free minutes from work (or what I tell Elaine is work that goes on over in my office) and I get to looking for a new table saw.  The one I got from Sears about five years ago has been OK, but just barely.  Nothing on CraigsList.

If you ever go shopping for a table saw (and people do) the BEST table saw on the market is called a StopSaw.  The things that makes the Sawstop CNS175-TGP36 1-3/4 HP Contractor Saw with 36-Inch Professional T-Glide Fence System including Rails and Extension Table (worth every penny of $2,000 at Amazon) is simple:

StopSaws have an electronic blade sensing  unit built in that can tell the difference between cutting wood and cutting fingers.  If the unit detects a change in electrical impedance of the material, it slams the saw to a stop in a (very small) fraction of a second.

Here’s a video, if you doubt the “finger-saving” capabilities of the tool:

PFM – pure freakin magic.  Gotta get one.  So yes, for someone who types for a living (moi) or someone who needs to ensure that their home workshop “home-handy-bastard” project don’t go…er…digital…like my buddy James the famous doctor (at least in Tennessee) this is THE only saw on the market to own.

I want one because the cheap ($250 Sears) saw that I presently have ain’t cutting it (so to speak) for a number of reasons:

1.  Insufficient table “run-in” space.  The cheap saws don’t have as large a “front porch” (area in front of the blade).  The more room in front of the blade, the more precision you can get out of cuts because you can focus on the cut alignment, not trying to hold the wood up just so.

Of course, the out-feed area (behind the blade) needs to be big, too, since there’s nothing less fun that having to press down on a work piece on a running saw.  Especially if I don’t take the additional 5-minutes of screwing around to set up my out-feed rollers and all that crap.  I’m that guy.

The StopSaw has bolt-on out-feed extensions that (at my age) are more appealing than most centerfolds.

2. Shaft wobble of the blade. My present old Sears saw has a lot of blade wobble.  In other words, if you push the blade (“Saw unplugged, Fool!!!”) left or right, you’ll see you can move my old saw between about 1/16th of an inch to maybe 3/32nd’s.

A real saw ought to have basically NO left – right wobble or looseness of the shaft.

3.  Cheap, small Arbor;  The normal (middle of the saw blade) hole size on a TYPICAL home 10” table saw is 5/8th’s of an inch in diameter.  Just about all saws use this.   But where saws begin to separate the “men from the boys” is in the length of the shaft that the blade goes on.  This measurement is called the “arbor” length.

Anyone with a table saw, and designs on building furniture cutting grooves in the wood to hold shelves, knows the cut grooves are called dado cuts.  Makes for strong, good-looking furniture.

Now, try as I may, I have never been able to get enough of my dado blades on this short-arbor POS to enable me to run a 3/4 in dado in a single pass.  I can get a 1/2” dado set up, but barely.

On a real he-man saw, you get an arbor long enough to allow you to put on up to 7/8th’s of an inch of dado.  Yet another reason I am saw-shopping.  I would like to be able to run a single-pass 3/4” dado on the table saw which is way quicker than setting up the router (which will do it in a single pass) because the table saw makes a smoother cut.

4.  Non-standard table guides:  If you ever buy a table saw (new or used) made damn sure you get a saw that uses standard 3/4” guides.  This old Sears POS of mine has some fancy keyed guide that is totally useless because it doesn’t accommodate standard-track accessories.

Let’s say I wanted to whip up a cross-cutting sled so I could set up an angle jig.  (Fabulously detailed shop drawing right.)  The non-standard track issue I have run into makes me crazy.

Yeah, I know, “It’s a poor workman that blames his tools, Ure.” 

Bugger off.  That’s bullshit and anyone who believes that a small table, wobbly blade, short-arbor saw with obscure keyed tracks can turn out the same grade of cabinetry as a big StopSaw doesn’t know a rip from a crosscut.

About here’s you may be thinking “OK, interesting rant about table saws, and you didn’t mention that to replace the blade stopping cartridge is about $70bucks, but each time you replace one, that’s cheaper than a visit to the emergency room….but what about the misleading headline on this story…something about the Internet having a mind of its own?  What was THAT all about?”

Aha!  There you go again, dragging me kicking and screaming back to the point.  Doggonit…

Well, all this (except for maybe all the shopping details about how to buy a table saw (which might result in enough Amazon commission to buy a can of catfood for Zeus) is necessary background to explain the Internet getting a mind of its own remark.

You see, one of the sites that I came up with (while looking for the PERFECT table saw CHEAP was this site called www.dhgate.com.  I didn’t know anything about the site…just that it came up in a good for “cheap table saw” or something like that in the goog monster.

Odd assortment of stuff on the front page of the site….

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Peoplenomics: "The Enterprise" and the MMMR Problem

I assume you know, if you’re web-literate, that the Enterprise is what the runaway group that pulls the strings of governments all over the world calls itself now and then. If you’re not aware of the group, a simple Google of the Black Eagle Fund Trust that has been swirling away in background should be enough of a clue to at least get you started on the path of discovering for yourself just how far reality has strayed from the “way things used to be.” But other than confirm that “absolute power corrupts, absolutely” – which we all kinda knew anyway – the trail we’re on today has more to do with whether systemic corruption is part and parcel of how great civilizations end; management of multiple matrix realities (MMMR) reaching simultaneous dysfunction. Heady stuff, and with 100+ pages of recommended reading as background, the stop at the coffee pot this morning will be a short one… Just think of this as a quickie course in stratification of conflicting economic realities resulting in conflict.

Turn-Around Tuesday

At least for a moment, maybe. But the early numbers didn’t look all that hot – 30+ by the Dow futures when I looked, but as Peoplenomics.com subscribers know, we’re laughing all the way to the bank on this latest slide.  And tomorrow, we’ll be doing some work on answering the next question logically arising:  “How far is down?”

But first the highlights:  Dow dropped more than 300 points.  Obviously, that East Coast bias against the AFC winning is more than just rumor.  And, since the next wave down in the Long Wave is due any old time, why not now?

I mean, what could be more graceful than a nice Wave 1 (or macro 3 down) starting over Christmas, going into April/May, then having a Wave 2 bounce, and then things collapsing in a heap at the end of the year?

No, it’s not cast in concrete and your investment decisions are your own, it’s just that the reason we study history is to find out new and exciting ways to make money without breaking a sweat.  Times like the present are what bears live for.

And when you look around, the reason for the decline is staring us all in the face:  The Fed has added more than $3-trillion to its balance sheet (in the form of mortgage debt mostly) so they’re about out of silver bullets.

Then there’s the drop in consumer disposable income because of gunpoint healthcare.  Which is not a criticism, except as one reader wrote during our recent healthcare poll:

Current policy is 5k deductible and 70% coverage with a few doctor visits (3 each) at copay of $30. Monthly premium is $550.

Under Obamacare, I will have a $7500 deductible, and premiums go to $1100/mo.

And that’s just one example of how one couple will be spending $550 a month less on things like dinner out, a movie, travel, and so forth.

Now, multiply that by a lot of people and what?  (Bipity-bopity-boo!)  The market drops.

Well, see, that wasn’t really so hard to see coming, was it?

And with all those people who got a one year stay of financial execution because they work for big companies that got the (crooked, illegal, but probably saving us from even larger, instant collapse) one year delay, we will be seeing even more downside over the next year.

You know, you don’t need to be a financial genius to navigate in the world.  You just need to wake the F up and see what’s going on in your own neighborhood.  As goes your income, so goes the country, if you have enough friends.  (*I don’t have any, so I have to study the headlines.)

Speaking of the headlines, the NY Times is blaming poor auto sales last month on bad winter weather.

Reality check!  Attention East Coast establishment media empire:  It was not snowing in LA or much of the rest of the country and the real reason is collapsing disposable incomes!  Hello?  Anyone home?  it snows last January, too, you know.  It does it every year, in fact.  Hello?  Anyone there?  FMTT

Another headline?  Sure:  Construction spending up.  Yeah, I know, how can this happen if it’s snowing so much people can’t buy cars, right?

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Coping: With Earworms (Ohrwurms)

“Have you lost your frigging mind?  What is an Earworm?”

Ah…well for no particular reason, every so often when my brain is working on various projects, I do get the occasional ohrwurm.  Song you can’t get out of your head that just shows up for no obvious reason…

This morning’s was the Christmasy song “O Tannenbaum.”

Not everyone thinks about ohrwurms….they just come and go. 

Like last week, because I was spending a lot of time over in the house (instead of out here in the office doing real work, thanks to the flu) Elaine and I had a ‘dumb music’ festival that we’d planned to surprise G2 with during his recent visit. 

We played such memorable hits as “Does your chewing gum lose it’s flavor on the bedpost overnight” and “One-eyed, one-horned, flying Purple People Eater…”   Songs you hate but can’t get out of your head.

Which ought to set off more than a few ohrwurms in the over-60 set, fo’ sho.

Oh, it’s a legit thing, this ohrwurm thing, says Wikipedia:

An earworm is a catchy piece of music that continually repeats through a person’s mind after it is no longer playing.[1] Phrases used to describe an earworm include musical imagery repetition, involuntary musical imagery, and stuck song syndrome.[2][3][4] The word earworm is a calque from the German Ohrwurm.[5]

Researchers who have studied and written about the phenomenon include Theodor Reik,[6] Sean Bennett,[7] Oliver Sacks,[4] Daniel Levitin,[8] James Kellaris,[9] Philip Beaman,[10] Vicky Williamson,[11] and, in a more theoretical perspective, Peter Szendy.[12] The phenomenon is common and should not be confused with palinacousis, a rare medical condition caused by damage to the temporal lobe of the brain that results in auditory hallucinations.[13]

All of which led to the first conscious thinking of the day.

I trust you know that  your brain has multiple memory types. In other words, I’m one of those people with semi-eidetic memory,  It’s a skill that most people have – to one degree, or another – but like so many capabilities of mind, it only works on two conditions:

1.  You have to give yourself PERMISSION to have a nearly flawless memory.  If you are bundled up in tension and self-doubt, your mind will provide exactly what you expect of it.  So, step one to a memory is to simply CLAIM it.

This has amazing implications in school and learning later in life, and if was while working on this improved memory stuff, that I came across my “everything is a recipe” method for learning highly complete material quickly.  (Another story for another day…)

2.  the second thing you have to do is use it.  Which seems obvious, except that it’s not all it’s cracked up to be.  Go watch a lot of episodes of the BBC version of Sherlock (or the American series Elementary) and you’ll see that having an ability to process/recall huge amounts of information can also be a curse.

Which – at least as far as personal observation goes –  is why many really, really smart people over-indulge in either booze or drugs.  It’s a way of “turning off the damn machine” in your head now and then.  Sometimes it can be a major battle lasting through large parts of people’s lives to get a proper relationship going between the different levels of personality…machine on, machine off…but again, another topic for another day.

OK, first point was what?  That when you start actually using more of your brain than the “room temp IQ people” you find that complex…..everything…..becomes fairly simple.  It always has a recipe under it somewhere, and once you have the underlying rule set nailed, then learning anything is simple as pi.  (To a bunch of places…)

Second point is that as you begin to develop your (much higher than you’re trained to believe you have) mental abilities, you begin to recall other than pictograph or linguistic symbols.

You will find, for example, that you can recall (and play back perfectly, in your head) whole complete pieces of music without the need for an iWhatever and ear buds.

What’s more, you can change the music on the fly to whatever suits your mood.

Of course, this is not something in the way of commonly told (or discussed) mental capabilities because (for one) it would wreck the iWhatevering business.  CVan’t have too many empowered people around, now, can we?  Why, having people figure out that they can play back music in their heads, well, that’s quite a dirty secret.

And, besides, there are some aspects of iWhatevering that are superior to what most people can recall, because there’s the problem of the bass line.  And has a mental/physiological basis.

Key Point: Think of your mind as a constantly running multi-track recorder.  Except that the only thing our little 18-track here at the ranch all we can capture is sound.  The distinction is that the multi-track personal mental recorder (PMR) that is constantly running in your head is actually recording different “sensory tracks” and that makes certain kinds of “perfect playback” of music quite difficult.

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The Nonlinear Market Period Approaches

Peoplenomics this weekend was, if I do say so myself, one of the better ones in that it explained a curious bit of (simple) math that demonstrates the market tendency to become very nonlinear ultra-low interest settings like those expected in the period ahead.

The nonsubscriber way of thinking of it goes like this:  The closer interest rates get to zero, the more volatile the market becomes.  That’s because stock prices become cost-justified as infinitely high on an earnings basis just before yields hit zero, and then, once that barrier is passed, they become infinitely overpriced!

Yes, it’s a crazy way of looking at things, but the math holds up – and now we’ve got more research ahead to see how much of the market actually moves on the mathematical foundations laid out.

It’s like that Sunday football game.   Oh, sure, there were statistical indicators of what would happen, but there’s always that “emo component” – emotional component – that works its way into investment decisions and which team you support.

Just like I can’t understand how people get all wrapped-around-the-axle on a sports team, the answer is really quite simple:  It’s all about what goes on down at the archetype level that CG Jung wrote so eloquently about.  I won’t ask you to whip out your copy of  Memories, Dreams, Reflections, but transference behavior is oftentimes a “mother transference” and by the rule of “least resistance” the closest substitute wins.  Mass marketing of sports is what we get.

This is not to say that sports fans (and investors) are all idiots when it comes to manipulation of their emotions, but the reason that sports franchises have mascots is precisely because it enables and empowers transference that to the fan – at the experiential level – seems “normal.”  But to the aware (recovered sports addict or aware investor) the method is easily seen and stripped of its power to herd us blindly.

Just as the Seattle “Seahawk” in an amalgam of northwest First People’s myths, the bronco has it’s own Wikipedia listing, as well.  It’s quite ridiculous to cheer for any team, particularly one that may pay less (percentage-wise) in taxes than me or you.  Yet millions did it Sunday, not realizing they were cheering for either a…

… large raptor, reaching more than 60 cm (24 in) in length and 180 cm (71 in) across the wings.

Or, they were sucked into cheering for…

…an untrained horse or one that habitually bucks.

Raptor or untrained horse.  It’s insane, but only if you detach and looking for meaning.

My (How’s your hangover?) column this morning will not get into the depths of MMMR (managing multiple matrices of reality) as it relates to sports – and investing.  That will be discussed in more detail for subscribers in Peoplenomics Wednesday.

I’m just pointing out that people will cheer for the damnedest things (fish, birds, social or racial subtypes) and not realize they are being “worked.”

In similar fashion, the markets have not yet crashed (although, give it time) because there are many market players who are too dumb to figure out (as great sage Jimi Hendrix warns us) “Castles made of sand, fall in the sea, eventually.”

Which is why, after the silliness of the Sunday, it’s time to roll out our new mascot around here.  No, we don’t know how long he’ll be around, but already the Urban Bears are kicking the average investor’s ass in Seattle-like style.

We can report the Bears whipped the Nikkei’s by almost 2%, the Chinns by 106 points, and in Europe, the Bear was continuing his run for the gold by beating the Frogs by 18 points and ahead of the Huns by 66, although both of those games are still underway.

Also in play, the Bears versus the Queens with the bears ahead by 45-points. 

The US game will be getting underway shortly, but we notice the monthly unemployment report won’t be out until Friday as the Labor Department has been on the injured reserve list from the partial government shutdown last year.  They’ve never made it back into the action.  Instead, fans will have to watch slow car sales and dwindling construction as they look for a reason to bet against the Bears.

Down here at the old sports book, we notice the Bears have won three weeks running in the S&P playoffs.  And only the most casual fan of Reality Bears would overlook in the stats that the Bears have ruled since Christmas week.

As you settle up on those office wagers today, you might think about putting a little something on the Bears next.  They’re looking sharp and the team makes a lot more sense around here than washed out birds or bucked-up horses.

“Go bears, or go broke.”

I trust you know what the Seattle win means by the Super Bowl Indicator?

More after this…

(I have no idea what this means.  Usually Amazon ads make sense to OFs like me, but this one is included because it’s so…uh….mysterious.  No clue what it means, but I will try it later, since I don’t have any friends… Now, where we we?  )

Happy Times Ahead for East Africa, Turkey

Well, not quite.  Understanding this next story requires you have your UrbanSurvival concealed carry training card with you….which means you know what a man-portable air-defense system is (MANPAD) and that it knocks airplanes out of the sky…

Dear Mr. Ure,

Links are circulating to this “Armament Research Services” article of manpad related weaponry allegedly captured from rebels in South Sudan.  While the verbal focus is on the weapons, evidently the seizure was worthy of a photo-op. Perhaps one may deduce out of the picture link from “The East African” discussion board that a son of the president of Uganda could be present.

Regards,

Gold star for our Winnipeg news analyst fellow on this.  And while we wait for planes to start dropping, we also should have our eyes on Turkey, figures warhammer…

It is becoming clear that the U.S. retraction into isolationism, the reluctance of Europe to play a leading role in Syria and the perseverance of radical Islamic factions led by al Qaeda are collectively precipitating an increased likelihood for instability in the Middle East region.

Now Turkey finds itself drawn into the cauldron of chaos, finding itself having to defend its borders and territory from incursion with overt but limited military action.

As Turkey joins the fray, the regional dynamic intensifies, with the potential for larger scale armed conflict seriously escalating.

Instead of the West proactively infusing meaningful measures to encourage peace, such as deliberate enforcement of nuclear and ballistic missile arms control, naval embargoes, intensified economic sanctions, and the demand for the surrender and dismantling of Syrian chemical weapons, the U.S. and it’s allies stand idly by as the pieces click firmly into place for armed confrontation.

There are simply too many competing pieces in play for the situation to end with a completely peaceful resolution for all interested parties.

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Coping: WoWW and the SuperBowl

“OK, Ure, what does the World of Woo-Woo – WoWW – have to do with the SuperBowl?”

Damned if I know – for sure – but something hit me this morning.  And I think we ought to try it out as a kind of woo-woo science project.  Here’s the idea:

As I got up this morning and turned on the ‘net to see who won the SBG, I noticed a slide show on one of the side panels of the browser that had a title something like “30 hottest cheerleaders in the NFL”.  Hmmm…#23 was kinda cute…

Naturally, when I got around to writing about this, I couldn’t find that link, but there are lots of other, similar, photo galleries to be found.  Like this one that promises the “30 hottest Dallas Cowboys cheerleaders of all time.”

“So what, you chauvinistic pig?”

Oh, all in the name of science, I promise! 

Let’s suppose that Jung (and Freud, et alia) were right and there’s a high correspondence between what goes on in the external world and what goes on in the inside of our personalities.  Bear with me on this.

Let’s then imagine that we can connect the inner and outer worlds with the right tools. In this case, a cheerleader gallery.

Most people have an idea about how Tarot cards work, but today’s flash was that we could look at collections of pictures – like the 30 hottest cheerleaders – and by picking out the most appealing one, we may have discovered a new way to pick what?

LOTTERY TICKETS!!!

Hell yeah!  What a fun new crackpot theory to test.

Now, if you live in Texas, obviously you could use the “30 hottest” of the Cowboys and then for the rest of the lotto numbers, you could pick from the hottest picks from a Houston collection.

So you take a collection of photo galleries, find the pictures you are most drawn to, and then use the picture numbers as lotto picks.

Then tabulate your lottery results to see if they are better – or worse – than how much you didn’t win before.

Or, I suppose, if you have a deep-seated Loser Complex, you pick pick out the six ugliest (or however many numbers you need for lotto, PowerBall, or whatever, and see how that works.

I’m always intrigued with the notion “as above, so below”  or, since I’m deep in research in other areas that run parallel (sans cheerleaders, which would sure make it more interesting) the correspondence between “inner world” and “outer world” and this just struck me this morning as something worth mentioning.

If you have other ways of picking lotto numbers, please send them in.

And if you hit The Big One after trying this “pick from pictures” to get numbers approach, a 10% tip to the House is in order….

Our Healthcare Cost Poll

One of my friends left me a critical note (and voicemail) about my Obamacare/ACA cost poll.  He said a better poll would be…

“I became a year younger last year.

I became a year older last year.

There, now I’ve fixed your poll about health care costs.  Duh.  It’s an actuarial pricing model.  Think about it.”

Well, I have been…all damn weekend…and it still doesn’t make sense.  The Obamacare / ACA price experience is NOT a zero-sum game.  There appear to be more losers (people paying more) than there are winners (people paying less, and insurance companies).

So first our UrbanSurvival reader experience with the ACA:

Number Who Report Lower Healthcare costs:   17

Number Who Report Higher Healthcare costs:  52

I didn’t vote in this poll, because my healthcare costs went down, but only a couple of bucks.  Thanks to joining the ranks of the Olde Pharts (age 65 this month) I am now on Medicare which is a whole other problem.

Representative comment from someone whose costs got cheaper:

We (wife & I ) were on Minnesota care- low income. $48. Month. Now we are on medical assistance (MA) Free.

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Peoplenomics: Has the Long Wave Been Defeated?

With the departure Friday of Fed Chair Ben Bernanke and the elevation of Janet Yellen to the position of Fed chair, have we seen the demise of the long wave cycle in economics? Or, has there simply be so much “creation” of “paper money” that we can no long see the true scale of what’s going on? These are some mighty juicy morsels to ponder as we survey this week’s action in markets. Which we’ll get around to after a few headlines and coffee, as always… More for Subscribers ||| SUBSCRIBE NOW!

World Ending…but Which World?

Still saddled with this crummy flu/cold./plague/or pox upon me, I almost crawled back into bed this morning upon discovering that the world would be ending sometime in August of this year.  Yes, there’s a story out on the Turner Radio Network (no relation to Ted, so far as we know) that assures us that a “Professor gives coordinates of planet inbound toward Earth.”

Of course, the story’s cited source, a “Dr. Kaplan” (no first name given) seems to have a video up on YouTube, which would be terribly important except for one thing:  the UT Austin Astronomy Dept. doesn’t have any Dr. Kaplan listed on it’s personnel directory (here) and so it doesn’t look legit, so we continue our quest for how the world is likely to end this year.

The smart money is on the world ending because of financial destruction, instead of errant planets.  Errant financial policy is far more likely…

In the early-going today, the Dow which was up 109 points yesterday, is likely to drop more than a hundred-fiddy  around the opening, and as a result, we expect the week to end down around its lows, or under.  Remember, below the S&P 1,770 level is where Robin Landry and a lot of other experts in market analysis expect things to get really interesting.

While we await the market opening today, we can begin munching on a side order of quick-fried numbers – personal income and expenses.  Have your ViceGrips at the read as you read this one…

“Personal income increased $2.3 billion, or less than 0.1 percent, and disposable personal income (DPI) decreased $3.8 billion, or less than 0.1 percent, in December according to the Bureau of Economic Analysis. Personal consumption expenditures (PCE) increased $44.1 billion, or 0.4 percent. In November, personal income increased $29.8 billion, or 0.2 percent, DPI increased $14.4 billion, or 0.1 percent, and PCE increased $74.8 billion, or 0.6 percent, based on revised estimates. Real disposable personal income decreased 0.2 percent in December, in contrast to an increase of 0.1 percent in November.

Real PCE increased 0.2 percent in December, compared with an increase of 0.6 percent in November.

No surprise, however I do have on my questions to ask BEA list this one: Are ya’ll counting healthcare tax in your accounting?

And then there’s personal savings:

Personal saving — DPI less personal outlays — was $495.2 billion in December, compared with $541.0 billion in November. The personal saving rate — personal saving as a percentage of disposable personal income — was 3.9 percent in December, compared with 4.3 percent in November.

How they can come out with such stuff month after month is mystifying.  But the real numbers to wait for will be the January numbers (a month from now) after all the healthcare changes roll in.  Or, will they simply not count that as a tax?  Jokes on us.

But meantime, if there’s a decline in your standard of living, if you tear into their underlying spreadsheet, you’ll see they do things like count home equity as “savings” and such, you’ll see that the last YTD increase in personal savings for 2013 was 4.5% while in 2012 it was 5.6% and In 2011 it was 5.7%.

Gee, do you think this economic reality has anything to do with why the Dow will open down 150 this morning?

Which gets us to….

Obamacare Poll

I’m looking to collect actual reader experience with healthcare reform, so please click one of the following links and send me a note:

My healthcare become MORE expensive under Obamacare

My healthcare became LESS expensive under Obamacare

Oh, sure, there have been other polls out there, but I want to find out what actual UrbanSurvival reader experiences are.  If the poll comes in good – then fine – we’ll be pleased to report that.  However, if the poll comes in negative, well, that too will get reported.

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