This is one of those stories which the wishy-washy, paid for, corporatized mainstream media has been failing to context for more than 40 years.  I won’t live long enough to see its end, but here’s a progress report on where we are – and more importantly – where we are going.

Not to step into a politically sensitive area, but has it occurred to anyone other than Ures truly, that Mexico is at war with the US and we are just too damn blind to see it?  This is a slow-motion war and therefore invisible.

Even more interesting is that Mexico is too smart to declare it.  And 99% of America is too lazy to see the role that narcodollars have (and will continue) to play in how American elections turn out.  They’re purchased, highest bidder, just to be clear on that nit.

Let’s begin with the definition, simplest terms, of what war is:

“…a state of armed conflict between different nations or states or different groups within a nation or state.”

Next we put on our thinking caps, because  most people consider “war” in a traditional sense; they think about AK-47s, a few crates of RPGs, and other conventionally “armed” forces.  Toss in a tank and some fighters, too, would you?

While Mexico has, in fact, been engaged in specifically this kind of armed conflict with the US it has been via population displacement and the drug cartels.  Hence, it, is true that we live in a world where “economic warfare” is just as nominally “real” or am I the only one that noticed how Russia just played the West in Ukraine’s former Crimea?  Thought about California as an analog? 

In that instance, the Russian version of our Mexico war, doctrine was to infiltrate a Russian population into the Crimea, where – over time – they became the majority.  Again, consider the US border states.

Now, I would further ask you to look very closely at the demographics of the border states, particularly California and Arizona, when illegal alien dumping and leaky borders are just an everyday fact of life.  We have a “tolerance policy” and I have never seen a good tolerance policy of any sort, but then I’m only 65 nowadays.  Maybe some day, but this ain’t it.

Obviously, the people who make policy decisions in Washington are heavily conflicted (although some say they are just out to destroy America as we knew it, as a top agenda item).  I don’t credit them as being that smart.  Still….

Conflicted in the sense that we all know that Social Security is running out of money sometime around 2040 (the last date I heard) but with any luck, and maybe if I lose 30 pounds, I will be around to be facing that financial problem.

It’s obvious to anyone with a lick of sense (which is about all I can accord an  ex-Chicago neighborhood organizer) that we need some people with incomes and an upwardly mobile lower class, all struggling and paying taxes to fund the government and Social Security system.

Germany is going great guns in Europe because Labor has a say on corporate boards of directors, so the middle class gets its bite.  But not in ‘Merica.  Here, the bite is given only to the shareholders.  The result is a hollowed out (and stupid, frankly) middle class that is uninvolved in preserving or building our country.

U.S. LOSES SEX WAR

Your memory may be faulting (what this being Monday and all) but if you look back to September of last year, CNN was reporting what?  “Baby bust:  U.S. Births at record low.”

In this story, we read how the birth rate (2012) was down to 63 births per 1,000 capable women.  But just so’s to do apples to apples, that was a (2012)  birth rate per thousand (both sexes, genpop) of  13.68.

MEXICO, on the other hand, same source, comes in at 18.87 per thousand in 2012 – basis their genpop.

So the Mexican proclivity to reproduce is 1.37 times what the US rate is in an even analysis.

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This morning’s report was to have been titled “What’ll Be Left Standing?  (2) The Matrix” but something much more important is coming into focus:  Yes, a huge blow-off top in the stock market with a Dow north of 20,000 is likely in the wings.  But it takes a lot of background to understand the dynamics and where it leads.  One reason to expect it is in the Fed’s Consumer debt report out late Friday.

In our Wednesday report, we delved into some of the drivers of the New Depression and explored how certain social trends, like “children” living with their parents well into adulthood are helping moderate what would otherwise likely be a much steeper and faster descent into economic hell.  Of course, the flip side of it isn’t all that pretty:  Kids coming home drive the parents to work well past what could otherwise have been an early retirement age, but for the kids that don’t have the jobs to support the home sales that live in the “house that Jack built.” Note to nonsubscribers: Finest nursery tale ever, and it explains more about economics than most four-year programs and a good number of post-grad schools:

This is the horse and the hound and the horn

That belonged to the farmer sowing his corn

That kept the rooster that crowed in the morn

That woke the judge all shaven and shorn

That married the man all tattered and torn

That kissed the maiden all forlorn

That milked the cow with the crumpled horn

That tossed the dog that worried the cat

That chased the rat that ate the cheese

That lay in the house that Jack built.

But, then again, most economists I would argue, know plenty of math yet don’t grasp the circularity firmly.

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I mentioned the other day about how much of America’s potential is being squandered because we have not been able to articulate a new – and worthy for all – American Dream.

One of our long-term readers, William, was part of the “last big dream.”  You know the one?  About putting a man on the moon.

His personal experience here, but notice the ‘vibe’ and now much is lost today:

Those were brave days, they were. They were exciting. Anything was not only possible, but we figured we’d surely do those Anythings one day before too long.

I wore the short-sleeve white shirt with the narrow tie and the engineer’s pocket pack which had several flavors of writing sticks, and a small Keiffel & Esser slide rule.

From the mid-1960s to the mid to late 1970s those days burned brightly, and we were all IN it, and we were all DOING it.

On a road trip for my job, I was at Hughes Aircraft in El Segundo, California, and I met a cleaning lady tidying up the men’s room, who said enthusiastically, “We’re going to the Moon!” — and she naturally included herself in the “we.” And she was dead serious.

I was firmly in that “we” as well.

It was exciting, thrilling, purposeful, and important.

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It’s a familiar topic around here, but worth noting this morning that a new poll which is available from CNN-Money says 59% of persons polled believe the American Dream is unachievable.

What’s worse is that as you read down into the detail level, you’ll find that the number of folks who don’t think their children will be “better off” than their parents is nearly 2/3rd’s – 63%.

All of which circles back to a very interesting problem:  What is the core reason that we get up and go to work in the morning – or do anything else, for that matter?

Huge socioeconomic success seems to follow articulation of a great dream. 

From the depths of the Great Depression, America organized around a dream of “saving Europe” and “beating the Hun” and that was followed with “beating the Japanese.”

After World War II, we got into the dream about containing communism and that helped the US go (more or less) united into Korea, where we’ve been ever since.

Then there was the dream to “put a man on the moon within 10 years” which was done, although there are plenty of scoffers who argue that it was all a conspiracy and show and that there are simply too many photographic hints that it was at least partial staged.

Nevertheless, staged or otherwise, we had a dream – and did something about it.

Other dreams (such as Martin Luther King’s “I have a dream”) have been realized as well.

But there’s that old “What have you done for me lately?” side of things.

A fine question to be asked if you know anyone on a school board or who’s a teacher, is to ask them “What is the American Dream” that is being told and sold to the young people of America today?

The mood of the country may hinge on such things, since there’s an obvious pile of potential dreams to pick from.

With the huge increase in the levels of income disparity. finding a better means of income distribution might be a candidate.

Or, given the paucity of jobs, we might want to work on developing a dream to deal with the arrival of robotics which will decimate the workforce in coming years.

As I sit hear thinking about it this morning, there aren’t a lot of worthwhile dreams that come to mind.  But perhaps you’d be so kind as to share whatever you consider a worthy dream for America.

Something better than “What this country needs is a good five-cent cigar” would be nice, and something  that doesn’t involve adding more divisions between us as people.

It’s be nice if it was something the whole planet could buy into, as well.  And no, going to Mars doesn’t cut it for me personally, but maybe there has been enough groundwork laid around the idea of Martians, that it is an idea whose time has come.

Or not.

We’re All Public Figures…or Are We?

There is something of a gulf in this country which I’m starting to notice:  The country is dividing among those who believe in the right to privacy and those who see that with the arrival of network computers and the lack of public training on how they strip away most traditional (pre computer) privacy notions, we are becoming an ever more transparent society.

I recently whined about the NSA’s plans to use Facebook information as feed stock for its massive facial recognition program. 

And responding to this, in pops an email from reader Mark out in the Bay Area, who says (in so many words) what’s the big deal?

George,

I don’t really have a problem with government security agencies having a picture of my face, fingerprints, SS#, body type, shoe size…whatever. What are they going to do with it? I have nothing to hide…Actually, me and millions of others have chosen to have our  faces plastered on as many sites as possible.

My entire present day life is there for anyone to look at on LinkedIn, Facebook, Google+, Twitter, my public web site, business cards etc., etc. I want people to recognize me. It is part of my personal business model. 

However, for some people, it’s never OK until it’s OK. That is, until they have a theft, assault, fraud,  or Heaven Forbid a kidnapping or worse. Then, we all want our local authorities to mimic the Person Of Interest scenario and hunt those bastards down by any means possible.

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What’s going on with the economy is so simple even an idiot can understand it. 

And being one of those idiots, I can even explain it to you.

The long term interest rates have been sliding down since 1982.

As they have come down, stocks that pay even modest dividends have gone up.  With me so far?

The interest rates are sliding again.  And as they do, the big word Deflation has everyone scared spitless in the power chairs of economics.

Just this weekend, Italy’s economics minister was hand-wringing over how bad deflation would be.

Anyone outside of Italy has probably figured out that the deflation ship has sailed and Spain’s King abdicated this morning, leaving his 45-year old son to deal with financial problems of Spain (not to mention breakaway Catalonia where a separatist party is coming on strong).  Get while the getting is good, is what it reads like at this end.

So this morning we turn our attention to Istanbul, Turkey, where Chicago Fed president Charles Evans is hinting the US Fed will not be in a terrible hurry to raise interest rates.  In fact, while some of the worrywarts in the market have wondered if there might be an interest rate increase before 2014 is out, Evans is coming out and saying that we may not get an interest rate increase until 2016.

So this gets us to looking at my friend Robin Landry’s view of the markets.  As an expert in Elliott Wave theory, Landry disagrees with those who have been saying “the Big One” is coming to get us any minute.

in fact, he’s looking at the S&P 1982 level and we might see a blow off which could take us up to the 2,200 level.

Over on the Peoplenomics side, our Trading Model seems to agree and with only a week or two of bearishness, it has remained consistently on the long side.

Barring a “flash war” or the planet being wiped out by an asteroid this week,  the market futures look to open about even, to somewhat up today.

But if the unemployment number charade continues to work out, and as long as the shareholders and bondholders can sit back in relative safety – no doubt comforted by the wink-wink- nudge-nudge out of Istanbul from Evans this morning – there doesn’t seem to be anything worrisome about playing the long side of things for a while longer.

We should – at some point – run into x2=4py.  That’s the parabolic blow-off top yet to come. 

At some point, little people like you and me, won’t have much of anywhere to park our money.  As that happens, a lot of people will be driven into stocks, since banks are subject to bail-ins and such.  And then, as a result, with everyone “into the pool” the big investors will slide out at the next largest financial drowning in history will take place.

This week in Peoplenomics, we’ll look at the market breaks of the late 1900’s and into the 1920’s and lay some Kentucky windage on what might be out there.

The Baltic Dry index is down to 934 for a second day…maybe this parabolic isn’t baked in the cake just yet, but until a turn in rates is firmly in hand maybe the markets will hold.

More after this…

M-TH: Sleepy Hollow for Data

The headless economy won’t really be riding until late this week, though, so if you want to grab your favorite squeeze and “call in healthy” that’d be fine by us.  Hell, I’ll even sign your permission slip, if you want.  (Not that your boss would accept it, but I’ll sign damn near anything.)

The Institute of Supply Managers will release some data this morning.

Then there will be a construction spending report at mid morning.  But since China’s markets are going Lazarus (e.g. rising from the dead) we won’t get too upside no matter what in that report.

Tomorrow we get factory orders, but the one to watch will be auto sales which so far have been the only market holding the US out of being in the deflation death spiral.  Who would have thought “Cash for Clunkers” would be saving us five years later here after the market’s near-brush with collapse in 2009?

Just like it takes five years for a major change in petroleum prices to work and snake its way through the economy, I’ve got $10 bucks says there’s someone in the back room of the Fed running multi-agent simulations that got one hell of a bonus for getting that one right.  It’s been showing in the data for a couple of years, yet seems no one (to speak of) in the financial press has been screaming about what a put on the recovery has been.

Now, we have to wonder if there isn’t some kind of “bulldozer plan for housing”  as an economic stimulus for the next near death economic experience?

Back to point, ADP job numbers and a balance of trade report Wednesday,; so I may wake up for those.  Challenger job cut report Thursday is good, too.

But the real number of the week will be the employment report on Friday.  If the auto sales are weak and depending on how the balance of trade looks, we may get a few hints, but not enough to commit serious money to.

More than anything, we’ll just be twiddling our thumbs and looking at the TNX (10 year Treasuries) which are really the decider on whether the pigs ear economy can be turned into a silk purse for another month, or whether the whole McGillah will end up on the cutting room floor.

I’m betting on the silk purse for now, since Fed-pip Evans has let the cat out of the bag this morning.  The Fed may talk tough, but they are not (contrary to what some media might think) complete idiots.  They don’t want to crash the economy any more than any sane person would.

While the Fedsters are not complete idiots, the partial designation would be a much longer conversation, but we don’t have time for it. 

You want to get out of bed and go get some papers to trade for precious metals.  Because when the Big Turn comes, it will all be about navigating your life savings through the confiscatory gauntlet ahead.  And it won’t matter whether your dough is in home equity, paper assets like stocks, or in banks.

In the short term?  All sunshine and rainbows.  Oh, wait!  Aren’t rainbows parabolic, too?

Fighting Terror or “Let’s Make a Deal?”

Well, here we go again.  The US has had a long-standing policy of not swapping terrorists for any American held hostage by foreigners.  But that was blown out of the water this weekend with the Obamanistas pulled a 1 for 5 trade to bail out an American G.I. who was held by the Taliban.

We got one, they got five.  And while that’s specifically against the rules passed by Congress, we should see this week how the Administration plays its cards to get out of any real consequences for (another runway action of) the imperial president.

So, let me see:  We still have illegals being dumped in Arizona, VA is broke but off the front page, and now we’re giving in to terrorists in spite of law contrarywise.  Jeez, what a mess!

Still, no reason for any of the administration behavior to change.  Besides, if I mention it, I’m sure I’d be labeled a you-know-what…  If there’s rational dissent, marginalize and roll on.

Power Plant Rules

Also in Washington comes word that the Obama administration plans to cap CO₂ emissions from coal fired energy plants.

Wrapped up all pretty-like in climate change wrappings, this will completely sidestep congressoids who are becoming ever-more useless by the day.

In the meantime, look for the courts to get involved as legal action is sure to follow.  Except, of course, we all know which branch gets to pick the federal, appeals, and Supremes, for their respective federal courts, do we not?

Hil’s New Book

Presidential wannabe Hillary is due out next week.

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Quite a few emails popped in when we discussed the Big Taboo: talking about the “Illusion of Ownership” that’s so widely held today.

The list is impressive: 

• You don’t own your home.  Even if you think you have paid it off, the government still rents it to you via property taxes each year.
• You don’t own your car:  First, you never get “title” to it, only a “certificate of title” that a title exists somewhere.  If you can find an actual “title”, let me know.  But it gets worse:  Unless you paid “rent” on public highways (long ago paid for!) you can’t drive it on the road.
• You also don’t own any of your personal skills:  Sure, you may be able to wire up a house, but to do so without being granted government permission you don’t own that skill as far as anyone else is concerned.  Oh, and fees and a bond apply.  Same for plumbers, and that list goes on.  Right up through doctors and lawyers, all have to pass a test and be licensed (authorized and never free) to practice your craft.
• You don’t even own the “right to drive” unless you have rented that right from the local department of motor vehicles licensing depot.
• You don’t own stocks anymore, just an electronic chit that’s held at the DTC/Cede.
• And your money in the bank?  Well, Europe is eyeing a “bail-in” on that front since deflation is pernicious and the laws are on the books for a similar haircut for the plebes, but not shareholders or bondholders, here if things get bad enough.

All of which ought to thoroughly piss you off when you think about it.  The land of the Free is really the land of the Dispossessed.

Oh, and as reader Gregory points out in a fine commentary on “how the world works” when it comes to this “ownership stuff” you also don’t really have a spouse, unless…..unless….

George,

Your comments on “ownership” or the lack thereof struck a resounding chord with me, since this scam extends far beyond mere property.  It also includes human beings and it begins at marriage when couples are required to get state-issued licenses to wed, with even common-law unions increasingly difficult to pull off anymore. 

The marriage license [actually called permits in some states which reveals their true nature] amounts to a legal, binding contract between the couple and the state which is why you later have to get a legal decree to divorce and dissolve the existing contract.  But: it gets more diabolical once that couple have children.  The same thing happens all over again: every child born is required to have a state-issued birth certificate which -in essence- grants full authority of the child to the state… they are legally considered chattel and property of the state… which is why your children are forced to attend school and why the state can and will seize your children if you are deemed unfit as a parent… including inadequate education.  [But wait!  That’s another topic altogether!]  

Incidentally, this system of legal entanglement is also why the fed-gov waffles so much on abortion and birth-control issues.  It has nothing to do with morality, but rather a complex web of contract law.  But: should they ever choose to do so, the fed-gov could indeed order a woman to terminate a pregnancy or restrict the number of children a couple may create [China’s been doing this for decades].

Since we are all property of the state it is therefore illegal for us to take our own lives… which explains why suicide is also a punishable offense [and one which makes NO SENSE whatsoever in the final analysis].

The good thing about all of this is that there is a growing movement among Ministers who no longer require a state-issued marriage certificate, instead relying upon God-Almighty to do the paperwork – thus nullifying said state’s authority over the holy union.  And, if that couple’s children are born at home by a midwife that further weakens state control over a family. 

Of course: the fed-gov has another catch-22 waiting in the wings for those savvy enough to avoid such contractual traps: our personal Social Security accounts.  

Although never intended to be used as a form of ID [yeah: RIGHT!] this account was the fed-gov’s way of tracking it’s populace [at least until electronic snooping became possible]. 

Wanna’ eat?  Get a job. 

Wanna’ job?  Get a number. 

Wanna’ eat without a job?  EASY! 

Fill out these forms and hurl yourself deeper into an unforgiving and never-forgetting system. 

Now, it’s damned-near impossible to vanish from that system without elaborate -and totally illegal- actions on the part of the would-be invisible man/woman. 

And: it all begins at birth -or rather, when the unwitting couple agrees and says, “I do.”

Gregory

Ah yes, another fine example of how “the Big Scram”  of ever-encroaching government is slithering around shows up.

A genuine cynic would laugh at the LBGT community which has been “celebrating” the extension of marriage licensing to them.  What they may not have felt, in all the joyous celebrations of “recognition” is that deep down it’s just another cog in the gearing to further “own” all humans.

but take it from me, the Reality is a very dangerous thing to be talking about, or even thinking about.  It dredges up a certain feeling of frustration and futility.

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