We won’t really know – for sure and for certain – what this Christmas told us about the economy for a while.  Sure, there was a dandy run into the Christmas Eve early closes, but markets are set to give back a bit at the open today. Early futures showed the Dow off 100 but … Read More

Sleigh bells?  Chestnuts?  Open fires?  Not around here – not this year. Mostly sunny and 77 today.  Boxing Day will hit 81. To be sure, the East Texas outback is a different part of the country. Down here in “We say grace, we say mam, if you aint into that we don’t give a damn” country.  Where … Read More

Apparently, the Government Shutdown this year – 46 bonus days – was not enough for non-government taxpayers to fund.  So yes, most U.S. federal offices are closed today, Wednesday, December 24, 2025, as the President issued an executive order making Christmas Eve a federal holiday for all executive departments, with only essential personnel for national … Read More

These may not all apply to you. But, around here, they are all part of making the season merry. So we’ll begin… Breaking: Durable Goods Drop to Suck: Oh, but not to worry, no sir! Real gross domestic product (GDP) increased at an annual rate of 4.3 percent in the third quarter of 2025 (July, August, … Read More

As we  roll into Nick Day week, besides metals glittering early, there’s a CFNAI report to dissect.  After which three “holiday week risks” are assessed.  Noisy headlines give me a cartoon excuse, but then into useless lithium battery chargers and some ShopTalk and Peoplenomics previews. St. Nick’s Rally – And Caution Market futures were showing a … Read More

Is this really ShopTalk?   Maybe: It’s really about aging, agency, risk, and dignity.  Let me read you in. Every so often a reader letter lands that isn’t really about tools — it’s about starting over.  Two things stood out in this week’s mailbag:  First, it comes from a long-time reader – she’s 73.  And she lost everything … Read More

This coming week could be extremely interesting. Because if scrying tea leaves is you thing, this is a perfect skill-building set-up. OK – our ChartPack this morning is a wee bit longish.  But we’re back into the time of year editors hate most.  How many refries of the “not all Epstein files” released do we need before someone … Read More

Much on the agenda – Markets and fresh data, a few headlines that matter, changes to Social Security in 2026 and how to hedge.  Plus ShopTalk Sunday has a “modular project” started… Markets and Santa We closed our short position Wednesday.  And sure enough, there was a decent rally Thursday. Early Futures pricing today?  Well, … Read More

Fresh coffee at the ready? We’ve got markets trying to figure out when the AI Bubble is over, how high silver will go on prospects of use in solid-state batteries, and a better-than-even chance of a major ground war in Europe in ’26.  So, lots of moving pieces to worry about.  But that’s (more or … Read More

Many things in motion, now. Yes — we’re on the new publishing platform, and it should be much more phone-friendly. Here’s today’s stack: Retail Sales and a few other useful headlines. Then the ChartPack. Followed by 2026: The Art of Winning Slowly – Part 2, where we apply what we know about futuring and how … Read More

The Jobs report has just landed. Total nonfarm payroll employment changed little in November (+64,000) and has shown little net change since April, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. In November, the unemployment rate, at 4.6 percent, was little changed from September. Employment rose in health care and construction in November, while federal … Read More

Today’s agenda is simple: Hard, soft, and out there.  The hard part is markets are trying to shake off the Friday (small Elliott 1) down.  Tempering Christmas with management skills.  And best of all? A great investment of time in “soul level work” looms over holidays. BTR: Market Made Simple Stocks fell on their ass Friday.  … Read More